Journal of Environmental Health Sciences (한국환경보건학회지)

Korean Society of Environmental Health (한국환경보건학회)
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Regression Analysis-based Model Equation Predicting the Concentration of Phytoncide (Monoterpenes) - Focusing on Suri Hill in Chuncheon -

피톤치드(모노테르펜) 농도 예측을 위한 회귀분석 기반 모델식 -춘천 수리봉을 중심으로-

  • Lee, Seog-Jong (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Kim, Byoung-Ug (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Hong, Young-Kyun (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Lee, Yeong-Seob (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Go, Young-Hun (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Yang, Seung-Pyo (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Hyun, Geun-Woo (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Yi, Geon-Ho (Atmospheric Engineering Division, Gangwon Institute of Health and Environment) ;
  • Kim, Jea-Chul (AirTech Inc.) ;
  • Kim, Dae-Yeoal (Gangwon Regional Meteorological Administration)
  • 이석종 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 김병욱 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 홍영균 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 이영섭 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 고영훈 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 양승표 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 현근우 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 이건호 (강원도보건환경연구원 대기공학과) ;
  • 김재철 ((주)에어텍) ;
  • 김대열 (강원지방기상청)
  • Received : 2021.10.05
  • Accepted : 2021.12.14
  • Published : 2021.12.31
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Abstract

Background: Due to the emergence of new diseases such as COVID-19, an increasing number of people are struggling with stress and depression. Interest is growing in forest-based recreation for physical and mental relief. Objectives: A prediction model equation using meteorological factors and data was developed to predict the quantities of medicinal substances generated in forests (monoterpenes) in real-time. Methods: The concentration of phytoncide and meteorological factors in the forests near Chuncheon in South Korea were measured for nearly two years. Meteorological factors affecting the observation data were acquired through a multiple regression analysis. A model equation was developed by applying a linear regression equation with the main factors. Results: The linear regression analysis revealed a high explanatory power for the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity in the coniferous forest (R2=0.7028 and R2=0.5859). With a temperature increase of 1℃, the phytoncide concentration increased by 31.7 ng/Sm3. A humidity increase of 1% led to an increase in the coniferous forest by 21.9 ng/Sm3. In the deciduous forest, the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity had approximately 60% explanatory power (R2=0.6611 and R2=0.5893). A temperature increase of 1℃ led to an increase of approximately 9.6 ng/Sm3, and 1% humidity resulted in a change of approximately 6.9 ng/Sm3. A prediction model equation was suggested based on such meteorological factors and related equations that showed a 30% error with statistical verification. Conclusions: Follow-up research is required to reduce the prediction error. In addition, phytoncide data for each region can be acquired by applying actual regional phytoncide data and the prediction technique proposed in this study.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 강원지방기상청의 협업연구 및 환경부 환경 분야 시험검사의 국제적 적합성 기반구축사업 지원에 의해 수행되었다. 이에 감사드립니다.

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