• Water Engineering Research
• /
• 제2권1호
• /
• pp.63-72
• /
• 2001

The variation of sampling errors was characterized using the Waymire-Gupta-Rodriguez-Iturbe multi-dimensional rainfall model(WGR model). The parameters used for this study are those derived by Jung et al. (2000) for the Han River Basin using a genetic algorithm technique. The sampling error problems considered are those for using raingauge network, satellite observation and also for both combined. The characterization of sampling errors was done for each month and also for the downstream plain area and the upstream mountain area, separately. As results of the study we conclude: (1) The pattern of sampling errors estimated are obviously different from the seasonal pattern of monthly rainfall amounts. This result may be understood from the fact that the sampling error is estimated not simply by considering the rainfall amounts, but by considering all the mechanisms controlling the rainfall propagation along with its generation and decay. As the major mechanism of moisture source to the Korean Peninsula is obviously different each month, it seems rather normal to provide different pattern of sampling errors from that of monthly rainfall amounts. (2) The sampling errors estimated for the upstream mountain area is about twice higher than those for the down stream plain area. It is believed to be because of the higher variability of rainfall in the upstream mountain arean than in the down stream plain area.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
• /
• 제13권11호
• /
• pp.1092-1098
• /
• 2007

A mobile robot localization problem can be classified into following three sub-problems as an observation likelihood model, a motion model and a filtering technique. So far, we have developed the range sensor based, integrated localization scheme, which can be used in human-coexisting real environment such as a science museum and office buildings. From those experiences, we found out that there are several significant issues to be solved. In this paper, we focus on three key issues, and then illustrate our solutions to the presented problems. Three issues are listed as follows: (1) Investigation of design requirements of a desirable observation likelihood model, and performance analysis of our design (2) Performance evaluation of the localization result by computing the matching error (3) The semi-global localization scheme to deal with localization failure due to abrupt wheel slippage In this paper, we show the significance of each concept, developed solutions and the experimental results. Experiments were carried out in a typical modern building environment, and the results clearly show that the proposed solutions are useful to develop practical and integrated localization schemes.

• 대기
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.103-113
• /
• 2020

In this study, we analyzed and developed the monitoring system in order to confirm the effect of observations on forecast sensitivity on ensemble-based data assimilation. For this purpose, we developed the Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to observation (EFSO) monitoring system based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) system coupled with Korean Integrated Model (KIM). We calculated 24 h error variance of each of observations and then classified as beneficial or detrimental effects. In details, the relative rankings were according to their magnitude and analyzed the forecast sensitivity by region for north, south hemisphere and tropics. We performed cycle experiment in order to confirm the EFSO result whether reliable or not. According to the evaluation of the EFSO monitoring, GPSRO was classified as detrimental observation during the specified period and reanalyzed by data-denial experiment. Data-denial experiment means that we detect detrimental observation using the EFSO and then repeat the analysis and forecast without using the detrimental observations. The accuracy of forecast in the denial of detrimental GPSRO observation is better than that in the default experiment using all of the GPSRO observation. It means that forecast skill score can be improved by not assimilating observation classified as detrimental one by the EFSO monitoring system.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
• /
• pp.187-190
• /
• 2007

The Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) is under development to provide a monitoring of ocean-color around the Korean Peninsula from geostationary platforms. It is planned to be loaded on Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) of Korea. The GOCI has been designed to provide multi-spectral data to detect, monitor, quantify, and predict short term changes of coastal ocean environment for marine science research and application purpose. The target area of GOCI observation covers sea area around the Korean Peninsula. Based on the nonlinear radiometric model, the GOCI calibration method has been derived. The nonlinear radiometric model for GOCI will be validated through ground test. The GOCI radiometric calibration is based on on-board calibration devices; solar diffuser, DAMD (Diffuser Aging Monitoring Device). In this paper, the GOCI radiometric error propagation is analyzed. The radiometric model error due to the dark current nonlinearity is analyzed as a systematic error. Also the offset correction error due to gain/offset instability is considered. The radiometric accuracy depends mainly on the ground characterization accuracies of solar diffuser and DAMD.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
• /
• 제25권12호
• /
• pp.1826-1834
• /
• 2021

본 논문에서는 지상의 광학 관측 시스템에서 미지 우주물체를 짧은 주기로 촬영할 때의 연속 추적 가능성을 확인해 본다. 저궤도영역으로 한정된 대상 표적에 대해 모의 관측 데이터를 생성하였고, 표적특성을 고려하여 예측 오차의 성능지수를 설정하였다. 칼만 필터를 이용하여 표적의 다음 위치를 예측하였고, 등속도/등가속도 표적 기동 모델이 미지 우주물체의 방위각/고도각 두 축에 적용되었다. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 수행한 결과, 최대 비선형구간의 최대 오차 비율이 2% 미만으로 나타나 연속적인 추적을 보장할 수 있다고 판단할 수 있었다. 등가속도 모델이 케이스별 예측 오차값의 변화가 적어서, 미지 우주물체의 추적에 더 적합하였다. 이러한 분석은 광학 관측을 이용한 미지 우주물체 궤도 결정의 기초를 제공할 수 있다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.268-275
• /
• 2003

We consider the Bayesian accelerated failure time model. The error distribution is assigned a skewed normal distribution which is including normal distribution. For noninformative priors of regression coefficients, we show the propriety of posterior distribution. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm(i.e., Gibbs Sampler) is used to obtain a predictive distribution for a future observation and Bayes estimates of regression coefficients.

• 대기
• /
• 제20권3호
• /
• pp.287-306
• /
• 2010

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is applied for Typhoon Wukong (200610) to investigate the performance of ensemble forecasts depending on experimental configurations of the EnKF. In addition, the ensemble sensitivity analysis is applied to the forecast and analysis ensembles generated in EnKF, to investigate the possibility of using the ensemble sensitivity analysis as the adaptive observation guidance. Various experimental configurations are tested by changing model error, ensemble size, assimilation time window, covariance relaxation, and covariance localization in EnKF. First of all, experiments using different physical parameterization scheme for each ensemble member show less root mean square error compared to those using single physics for all the forecast ensemble members, which implies that considering the model error is beneficial to get better forecasts. A larger number of ensembles are also beneficial than a smaller number of ensembles. For the assimilation time window, the experiment using less frequent window shows better results than that using more frequent window, which is associated with the availability of observational data in this study. Therefore, incorporating model error, larger ensemble size, and less frequent assimilation window into the EnKF is beneficial to get better prediction of Typhoon Wukong (200610). The covariance relaxation and localization are relatively less beneficial to the forecasts compared to those factors mentioned above. The ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitive regions for adaptive observations can be determined by the sensitivity of the forecast measure of interest to the initial ensembles. In addition, the sensitivities calculated by the ensemble sensitivity analysis can be explained by dynamical relationships established among wind, temperature, and pressure.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제7권1호
• /
• pp.119-128
• /
• 2000

This paper proposes a method for detecting interactions in a two-way layout with one observation per cell. The identification of interactions in the model is not clear for they are confounding with error terms. The $L_1$-Estimation is robust with respect to a y-direction outlier in linear model so we are able to estimate main effects without affection of interactions, If an observation is classified as an outlier we conclude it contains an interaction. An empirical study compared with a classical method is performed.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
• /
• 제31권6호
• /
• pp.458-467
• /
• 2019

본 연구는 자료동화에 필요한 매개변수의 최적화된 값를 산정하기 위해 서남해안을 포함하는 한반도 중심해역에 해양순환수치모델 FVCOM(Finite Volume Community Ocean Model)을 구축 및 검증하고 이에 연속관측된 수층별 유속자료와 OI(Optimal Interpolation)를 자료동화하였다. 자료동화에는 서남해안에 위치한 4정점에서 ADCP(Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler)을 통해 관측된 수층별 유속자료를 사용하였다. 자료동화에 사용된 배경 모델은 복잡하고 불규칙한 지형적 특성을 가진 서남해안 중심의 한반도 해역을 비구조격자체계의 해양순환수치모델인 FVCOM으로 구성하고 이를 조석검증하였다. 최적내삽법의 Correlation length와 Scale factor는 자료동화 과정에서 관측값의 영향 범위를 결정하고 오차를 보정할 수 있는 매개변수다. 자료동화기법 내 매개변수는 연구 지역에 존재하는 해양학적 특성에 따라 능동적으로 변동되기 때문에 이를 토대로 경험적인 산정 연구가 필요하다. 따라서 서남해안에서 요구되는 각 매개변수들을 Taylor diagram을 활용하여 관측정점별로 분석하고 최적값을 산정하였다. 산정된 최적매개변수는 관측정점마다 요구되는 값이 상이하며 연안에서 외해로 갈수록 증가하는 추세를 보인다. 추가로 조석검증 전과 후에 따른 배경 모델이 갖는 정확성이 자료동화 효과에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 조석검증을 통해 정확성이 높아진 배경 모델은 배경오차공분산이 상대적으로 감소됨에 따라서 총 비중 함수가 0에 가까워지고 결과적으로 최적매개변수값이 감소하였다. 이러한 최적매개변수는 광역 모델이 갖고 있는 연안역까지 도달하는 개방경계의 한계점을 완화시켜줄 것으로 기대하며 향후 관측정점별로 요구되는 최적매개변수값을 독립적으로 적용하도록 개선한다면 향상된 해양예측 시스템 개발에 도움이 될 것으로 기대한다.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
• /
• 제21권6호
• /
• pp.988-994
• /
• 1997

The demands for robotic and automatic system are continually increasing in manufacturing fields. There have been many studies to monitor and predict the system, but they have mainly focused upon measuring cutting force, and current of motor spindle, and upon using acoustic sensor, etc. In this study, digital image of time series sequence was acquired by taking advantage of optical technique. Mean square error was obtained from it and was available for useful observation data. The parameter was estimated using PAA(parameter adaptation algorithm) from observation data. AR(auto regressive) model was selected for system model and fifth order was decided according to parameter estimation. Uncorrelation test was also carried out to verify convergence of parameter. Through the proceedings, it was found that there was a system stability.