• Title/Summary/Keyword: Observation Confidence

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Optimal Dose of Edoxaban for Very Elderly Atrial Fibrillation Patients at High Risk of Bleeding: The LEDIOS Registry

  • Ju Youn Kim;Juwon Kim;Seung-Jung Park;Kyoung-Min Park;Sang-Jin Han;Dae Kyeong Kim;Yae Min Park;Sung Ho Lee;Jong Sung Park;Young Keun On
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.398-406
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    • 2024
  • Background and Objectives: Optimal anticoagulation in very elderly patients is challenging due to the high risk of anticoagulant-induced bleeding. The aim of this study was to assess outcomes of on-label reduced-dose edoxaban (30 mg) in very elderly patients who had additional risk factors for bleeding. Methods: This was a multi-center, prospective, non-interventional observational study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of on-label reduced-dose edoxaban in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients 80 years of age or older and who had more than 1 risk factor for bleeding. Results: A total of 2448 patients (mean age 75.0±8.3 years, 801 [32.7%] males) was included in the present study, and 586 (23.9%) were 80 years of age or older with additional risk factors for bleeding. Major bleeding events occurred frequently among very elderly AF patients who had additional bleeding risk factors compared to other patients (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-4.02); however, there were no significant differences in stroke incidence (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 0.98-3.55). There were no significant differences for either factor after adjusting for age and sex (adjusted HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 0.75-3.62 for major bleeding; adjusted HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.51-2.50 for stroke). Conclusions: In very elderly AF patients with comorbidities associated with greater risk of bleeding, the incidence of major bleeding events was significantly increased. In addition, risk of stroke showed tendency to increase in same population. Effective anticoagulation therapy might be important in these high-risk population, and close observation of bleeding events might also be required.

Assessing the Benefits of Incorporating Rainfall Forecasts into Monthly Flow Forecast System of Tampa Bay Water, Florida (하천 유량 예측 시스템 개선을 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sye-Woon;Martinez, Chris;Asefa, Tirusew
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2012
  • This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.

Spatial Distribution of Urban Heat and Pollution Islands using Remote Sensing and Private Automated Meteorological Observation System Data -Focused on Busan Metropolitan City, Korea- (위성영상과 민간자동관측시스템 자료를 활용한 도시열섬과 도시오염섬의 공간 분포 특성 - 부산광역시를 대상으로 -)

  • HWANG, Hee-Soo;KANG, Jung Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.100-119
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    • 2020
  • During recent years, the heat environment and particulate matter (PM10) have become serious environmental problems, as increases in heat waves due to rising global temperature interact with weakening atmospheric wind speeds. There exist urban heat islands and urban pollution islands with higher temperatures and air pollution concentrations than other areas. However, few studies have examined these issues together because of a lack of micro-scale data, which can be constructed from spatial data. Today, with the help of satellite images and big data collected by private telecommunication companies, detailed spatial distribution analyses are possible. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the spatial distribution patterns of urban heat islands and urban pollution islands within Busan Metropolitan City and to compare the distributions of the two phenomena. In this study, the land surface temperature of Landsat 8 satellite images, air temperature and particulate matter concentration data derived from a private automated meteorological observation system were gridded in 30m × 30m units, and spatial analysis was performed. Analysis showed that simultaneous zones of urban heat islands and urban pollution islands included some vulnerable residential areas and industrial areas. The political migration areas such as Seo-dong and Bansong-dong, representative vulnerable residential areas in Busan, were included in the co-occurring areas. The areas have a high density of buildings and poor ventilation, most of whose residents are vulnerable to heat waves and air pollution; thus, these areas must be considered first when establishing related policies. In the industrial areas included in the co-occurring areas, concrete or asphalt concrete-based impervious surfaces accounted for an absolute majority, and not only was the proportion of vegetation insufficient, there was also considerable vehicular traffic. A hot-spot analysis examining the reliability of the analysis confirmed that more than 99.96% of the regions corresponded to hot-spot areas at a 99% confidence level.

A Case Study of Change in Practical Knowledge of Elementary School Teachers: Focused on Science Class for the Gifted (초등교사의 실천적 지식 변화에 대한 사례 연구: 과학영재수업을 중심으로)

  • Chung, Jung-In;Yoo, In-Sook
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.317-346
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes in teachers' recognition of science class and children for the gifted, and the process of changes in their practical knowledge after the experience of science class and conversation with colleague teachers. Two elementary teachers, teacher A and B, were selected as subject of investigation, who wanted to improve their science class. They experienced the process of self-examination during their class and from class conversations. Teacher A has 10 years of teaching experience. She has been in contact with gifted children and observed them since undergraduate. She entered the graduate school since she came to be interested in science class and children for the gifted. While teacher B has only three years of teaching experience and had a first contact with the gifted after graduate school. The results of this study are as follows. Teacher A didn't change recognition of gifted children class by class conversation in short term because she had a firm faith in good class teaching and was rich in class teaching knowledge. And, her practical knowledge was applied to the next class by changing teaching method or by supplementing her class contents in concerned part through class observation and class conversation with her colleagues. Teacher B was characterized as being lack of class confidence and concerned more about subject knowledge. She was forming a new practical knowledge along with new class teaching knowledge. Teacher B was in trouble with applying new practical knowledge to next class. From such findings, it was concluded that the process of changing or forming of practical knowledge depends on the beliefs, values, experiences, or knowledges of each teacher. A reflection on one' own class teaching could be a good way to form a practical knowledge and improve teaching speciality, when it was concerned with self-reflection of their own class, class observation, and communication with colleagues. Thus, the reflection practice could be applied to the teaching program of teachers for the gifted to form practical knowledge through trial class, self-reflection of class, and conversation with colleagues.

Evaluation of Regional Flowering Phenological Models in Niitaka Pear by Temperature Patterns (경과기온 양상에 따른 신고 배의 지역별 개화예측모델 평가)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Eun-jeong;Kim, Dae-jun;Kang, DaeGyoon;Seo, Bo Hun;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.268-278
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    • 2020
  • Flowering time has been put forward due to the recent abnormally warm winter, which often caused damages of flower buds by late frosts persistently. In the present study, cumulative chill unit and cumulative heat unit of Niitaka pear, which are required for releasing the endogenous dormancy and for flowering after breaking dormancy, respectively, were compared between flowering time prediction models used in South K orea. Observation weather data were collected at eight locations for the recent three years from 2018-2020. The dates of full bloom were also collected to determine the confidence level of models including DVR, mDVR and CD models. It was found that mDVR model tended to have smaller values (8.4%) of the coefficient of variation (cv) of chill units than any other models. The CD model tended to have a low value of cv (17.5%) for calculation of heat unit required to reach flowering after breaking dormancy. The mDVR model had the most accurate prediction of full bloom during the study period compared with the other models. The DVR model usually had poor skills in prediction of full bloom dates. In particular, the error of the DVR model was large especially in southern coastal areas (e.g., Ulju and Sacheon) where the temperature was warm. Our results indicated that the mDVR model had relatively consistent accuracy in prediction of full bloom dates over region and years of interest. When observation data for full bloom date are compiled for an extended period, the full bloom date can be predicted with greater accuracy improving the mDVR model further.

A student on the Nursing Needs and Satisfaction of Primipara During the Early Postpartum Period (산욕기 초산모의 간호요구와 만족도에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Young-Ja
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.5-27
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    • 1997
  • This study was carried out to identify the difference between nursing needs and levels of satisfaction of primiparae during the early postpartum period. The goal of the study was to obtain data needed to develope maternal education programs and to improve the nursing quality for primipara. The subjects were 111 primiparae who had normal delivery at 2 general hospitals in the Seoul area. The data was gathered using an 81 items questionnaire which was developed by the researcher from Nov. 30, 1995 to Feb. 5, 1996. Results found are as follows : 1. The characteristics of subjects : The majority of subjects were aged 26-30yrs(60.4%), high school graduated(49.5%), jobless(52.3%), had no religion(49.5%), no antenatal(74.5%), and postnatal education on self and infant care(55.9%). A large proportion of primiparae intended to feed breast milk(49.5%) but in fact only 7.2% fed breast milk while in the hospital. Many subjects perceived that they had reasonable self confidence about self care(46.8%), and infant care(36%). 2. The level of nursing needs of overall nursing care was relatively high(Mn 3.98) but the level of satisfaction was of average level(Mn 3.09). Therefore, difference between the level of nursing needs and satisfaction was significant(p=0.0001). 3. The nursing needs by category of nursing care the highest need was on the education of infant care(4.29), the lowest was on physical care(3.80). The level of satisfaction was higher on environmental care(3.40) and physical care(3.32). But the category that showed the lowest satisfaction was education of infant care(2.67). Hence, difference of categories between the level of nursing needs and satisfaction was significant(p=0.0001). 4. Among items of physical care, observation of primiparas' conditions(4.21), accurate medication and treatment(4.18), care of breast engorgement(4.07) and control of postpartal hemorrage(4.01) showed high nursing needs. On the other hand, only the level of satisfaction was higher on accurate medication and treatment(3.82). The rest of items revealed only average level of satisfactions. Difference of items between the level of nursing needs and satisfaction was significant(p=0.0001) except items of dietary care. 5. Among items of psychological care, 8 items of nursing needs were high(3.72-4.29), expecially detailed explanation on which mothers want to know(4.29), treatment and nursing care they receive(4.23), kind and faithful care(4.22), early contacts with their baby(4.20), and adequate draping during the care and treatment(4.18). Among items of psychological care higher satisfactions were shown on items of kind and faithful care(3.80), personal treatment(3.70), and detailed explanation to mothers, but the least satisfied items was early contact with baby(2.13). Difference between the level of nursing needs and satisfaction was significant(p=0.0001). 6. Among items of environmental care, the highest level of need and satisfaction was on the items of neat bedding and pajamas(3.54). The difference was significant (p=0.0001). 7. Among the items of educational needs on self care, all of 22 items revealed higher educational needs(3.50-4.33) but the levels of satisfaction varied with a range of 2.63-3.42. Among the items the satisfactions were high on items of breast care including massages(3.42), perineal care(3.36) and expression of breast milk(3.32). Less satisfied items were drugs not be taken by breast milk feeder(2.63), maintenance of breast figure(2.76) and postpartum exercise(2.80) and so on. The difference was significant(p=0.0001). maintain 8. Among the items of educational needs on infant care, 19 items revealed higher educational needs(3.28-4.54). And the highest need were on the 3 items of normal growth and development of infant, safety and emergency care, symptoms of sick(4.45) and the meaning of crying of the baby(4.52). The level of satisfaction among items of education of infant care ranged from 2.47 to 3.16. Most satisfied items were buriping(3.16), bathing(3.11) and diapering(3.09). The items of which the mother's needs were high revealed the lowest satisfaction level. The difference was significant (p=0.0001). 9. Relationship between nursing needs and levels of satisfaction among primiparae of different characteristics were as follows : 1) Nursing needs of physical and psychological areas were significantly different among different age levels but no relationship was found on other categories regardless of the level of satisfaction. 2) With regard to different levels of education, some relationship was found in nursing needs of psychological area(p=0.007), educational needs on infant care(p=0.04) and environmental care(p=0.01). Also, the difference of satisfaction level was significant. 3) Working mothers had higher nursing needs and were more satisfied on items of physical care(p=0.05), education on self care and infant care. Difference were significant between nursing needs and level of satisfaction. 4) With regards to different religion a moderate relation was found between nursing needs of environmental care infant care education but no relationship was found on levels of satisfaction. 5) With regards to antenatal education, the mothers who have had no antenatal education revealed higher nursing needs on physical care but those who had antenatal education were more satisfied with education on self care and infant care. The difference was significant. (p=0.0001). 6) With regards to postpartum education, the mothers who have had some sort of postpartum education revealed higher nursing needs on physical and self care. And they were more satisfied with nursing of every category except infant care than mothers who had not any postpartum education. Differences was significant between the nursing needs and levels of satisfaction.(p=0.0001). 7) With regards to breast feeding experience during the hospitalization, those who had no experience of breast feeding revealed higher nursing needs on physical care in contrast to breast feeders, who had higher educational needs on infant care. And breast feeder were more satisfied with all categories. Differences was significant(p=0.0001). 8) With regards to perception of self confidence on self care and infant care, no relationship was found on nursing needs and level of satisfaction in every category of nursing.

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Population Size and Home Range Estimates of Domestic Cats (Felis catus) on Mara Islet, Jeju, in the Republic of Korea (제주 마라도에 서식하는 고양이(Felis catus)의 개체군 크기 및 행동권 추정)

  • Kim, Yujin;Lee, Woo-Shin;Choi, Chang-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2020
  • Domestic cats (Felis catus) introduced to insular environments can be invasive predators that often threaten endemic species and cause biodiversity loss or local extinction on the island. This study was conducted from March to July 2018 to understand the population size, home range, and spatial use of cats introduced to Mara Islet (N 33° 07', E 126° 16') in Jeju Special Governing Province, the Republic of Korea. Observation records based on their natural marks revealed that there were 20 adult cats on Mara Islet. A capture-recapture method also estimated 20 adult individuals (95% confidence interval: 20-24 individuals). According to our telemetry study on ten adults deployed with GPS-based telemetry units, the home range size was 12.05±6.99 ha (95% KDE: kernel density estimation), and the core habitat size was 1.60±0.77 ha (50% KDE). There were no significant differences in the home range and core habitat sizes by sex. The home range of domestic cats overlapped with the human residential area, where they might secure easy foods. Five of ten tracked cats were active at potential breeding colonies for the Crested Murrlet (Synthliboramphus wumizusume), and six approached potential breeding areas of the Styan's Grasshopper Warbler (Locustella pleskei), suggesting the predation risk of the two endangered species by cats. This study provides novel information on the population size and home range of introduced cats on Mara Islet which is an important stopover site of migratory birds as well as a breeding habitat of the two endangered avian species. Reducing the potential negative impacts of the introduced cats on migratory birds and the endangered species on Mara Islet requires monitoring of the predation rate of birds by cats, the population trends of cats and endangered breeding birds as well as the effective cat population control and management.

Hydrological Drought Assessment and Monitoring Based on Remote Sensing for Ungauged Areas (미계측 유역의 수문학적 가뭄 평가 및 감시를 위한 원격탐사의 활용)

  • Rhee, Jinyoung;Im, Jungho;Kim, Jongpil
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.525-536
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    • 2014
  • In this study, a method to assess and monitor hydrological drought using remote sensing was investigated for use in regions with limited observation data, and was applied to the Upper Namhangang basin in South Korea, which was seriously affected by the 2008-2009 drought. Drought information may be obtained more easily from meteorological data based on water balance than hydrological data that are hard to estimate. Air temperature data at 2 m above ground level (AGL) were estimated using remotely sensed data, evapotranspiration was estimated from the air temperature, and the correlations between precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-PET) and streamflow percentiles were examined. Land Surface Temperature data with $1{\times}1km$ spatial resolution as well as Atmospheric Profile data with $5{\times}5km$ spatial resolution from MODIS sensor on board Aqua satellite were used to estimate monthly maximum and minimum air temperature in South Korea. Evapotranspiration was estimated from the maximum and minimum air temperature using the Hargreaves method and the estimates were compared to existing data of the University of Montana based on Penman-Monteith method showing smaller coefficient of determination values but smaller error values. Precipitation was obtained from TRMM monthly rainfall data, and the correlations of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month P-PET percentiles with streamflow percentiles were analyzed for the Upper Namhan-gang basin in South Korea. The 1-month P-PET percentile during JJA (r = 0.89, tau = 0.71) and SON (r = 0.63, tau = 0.47) in the Upper Namhan-gang basin are highly correlated with the streamflow percentile with 95% confidence level. Since the effect of precipitation in the basin is especially high, the correlation between evapotranspiration percentile and streamflow percentile is positive. These results indicate that remote sensing-based P-PET estimates can be used for the assessment and monitoring of hydrological drought. The high spatial resolution estimates can be used in the decision-making process to minimize the adverse impacts of hydrological drought and to establish differentiated measures coping with drought.

The Usefulness Assessment of Verifying Daily Output by Using CHECKMATE$^{TM}$ (CHECKMATE$^{TM}$를 이용한 일일 출력 검증의 유용성 평가)

  • Cho, Han-Sang;Nam, Sang-Soo;Park, Hae-Jin;Kim, Mi-Hwa;Park, An-Tae
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: In this study, we tried to check the usefulness of two Linear Accelerators, Clinac IX and 21EX (Varian, Palo Alto, CA), which are equipped in Ajou Medical Center. From 2008 to 2010, we evaluated the error range of Absolute Dose based on the daily output, which was measured by CHECKMATE$^{TM}$ (Sun Nuclear, Melbourne, FL). Materials and Methods: For Daily Q.A, photon beams of two linear accelerators, 21EX and IX (6 MV and 10 MV, respectively) were measured daily by using CHECKMATE$^{TM}$ just before the treatment began, while the absolute dose was measured biweekly by using water phantom. We analyzed the data of measured values from the daily Q.A and the absolute dose from 2008 to 2010 for 21EX, and from 2009 to 2010 for IX. We utilized Excel 2007 (Microsoft, USA) to evaluate Average, Standard deviation and Confidence level of the data. Furthermore, in order to check the measured values of CHECKMATE$^{TM}$ and the significance of absolute dose, each error value was compared and analyzed. Results: During the observation period, the output of two equipment's absolute dose increased in process of time and in both 6 MV and 10 MV, there was a similar increasing trend. In addition, the error rate of the measured value of CHECKMATE$^{TM}$ and the value of absolute dose were under 0.34, which means that there is a similarity relationship between the two measured values. After checking that the measured value of CHECKMATE$^{TM}$ increased, We measured the absolute dose to adjust that. When the error range was close to 2~3%, the number of changing the output was four for 21EX and three for IX. Conclusion: As a result of measuring and analyzing the daily output changes for two years by using CHECKMATE$^{TM}$, we could find that there is a significance between the output which we should obey during Q.A, and the measured value of absolute dose within the error tolerance of 2~3%. Thus, the use of CHECKMATE$^{TM}$ can be positively considered for more efficient and reliable daily output verification of linear accelerator. It can also be a good standard for other medical centers to understand the trends of linear accelerator and to refer to for the correction of each output.

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A Study to Validate the Pretest Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodule (사전검사를 통한 고립성 폐결절 환자에서의 악성 확률 타당성에 대한 연구)

  • Jang, Joo Hyun;Park, Sung Hoon;Choi, Jeong Hee;Lee, Chang Youl;Hwang, Yong Il;Shin, Tae Rim;Park, Yong Bum;Lee, Jae Young;Jang, Seung Hun;Kim, Cheol Hong;Park, Sang Myeon;Kim, Dong Gyu;Lee, Myung Goo;Hyun, In Gyu;Jung, Ki Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.67 no.2
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2009
  • Background: Solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) are encountered incidentally in 0.2% of patients who undergo chest X-ray or chest CT. Although SPN has malignant potential, it cannot be treated surgically by biopsy in all patients. The first stage is to determine if patients with SPN require periodic observation and biopsy or resection. An important early step in the management of patients with SPN is to estimate the clinical pretest probability of a malignancy. In every patient with SPN, it is recommended that clinicians estimate the pretest probability of a malignancy either qualitatively using clinical judgment or quantitatively using a validated model. This study examined whether Bayesian analysis or multiple logistic regression analysis is more predictive of the probability of a malignancy in SPN. Methods: From January 2005 to December 2008, this study enrolled 63 participants with SPN at the Kangnam Sacred Hospital. The accuracy of Bayesian analysis and Bayesian analysis with a FDG-PET scan, and Multiple logistic regression analysis was compared retrospectively. The accurate probability of a malignancy in a patient was compared by taking the chest CT and pathology of SPN patients with <30 mm at CXR incidentally. Results: From those participated in study, 27 people (42.9%) were classified as having a malignancy, and 36 people were benign. The result of the malignant estimation by Bayesian analysis was 0.779 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.657 to 0.874). Using Multiple logistic regression analysis, the result was 0.684 (95% CI, 0.555 to 0.796). This suggests that Bayesian analysis provides a more accurate examination than multiple logistic regression analysis. Conclusion: Bayesian analysis is better than multiple logistic regression analysis in predicting the probability of a malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules but the difference was not statistically significant.