• 제목/요약/키워드: Observation Confidence

검색결과 149건 처리시간 0.031초

반복측정자료를 가지는 적응적 집단축차검정에서의 신뢰구간 추정 (Confidence Bounds following Adaptive Group Sequential Tests with Repeated Measures in Clinical Trials)

  • 조숙정;이재원
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제26권4호
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    • pp.581-594
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    • 2013
  • 집단축차설계법은 중간분석을 실시하여 임상시험용 의약품의 유효성 또는 무용성이 조기에 발견되면 임상시험을 조기에 종료할 수 있는 시험설계법이다. 적응적 설계법은 중간분석 결과를 이용하여 시험설계를 변경하거나, 확률적으로 독립인 두개의 임상시험 결과를 결합하는 등 다양한 적응법으로 임상시험의 설계를 수정할 수 있는 시험설계법이다. 집단축차설계법과 적응적 설계법에서 주요하게 고려할 점은, 시험 전체적으로 제1종 오류를 적절히 분배하고 통제하여 임상시험 전체의 일관성을 유지하도록 하는 것이다. 반복측정자료 또는 경시적자료의 통계적 모형이 고려되는 경우에는 통계적 추론이 더욱 복잡하고 어려워진다. Lee 등 (2002)에서는 반복측정치를 가지는 임상시험에서 집단축차설계에서 미리 정한 기준에 의하여 임상시험이 종료된 후, 독립증분과 단계적 순서관계를 고려한 신뢰구간 추정법을 제안한 바 있다. 본 연구는 Lee 등 (2002)를 적응적 설계로 확장하였다. 적응법을 실시한 전과 후의 임상시험을 확률적으로 독립인 관계로 정의하는 검정통계량을 유도하여 적응적 집단축차검정법이 가능하게 하였다. 또한, 임상시험이 종료된 후 단계적 순서관계를 고려한 신뢰구간 추정법을 제안하였으며, 모의실험을 통하여 그 안정성을 확인하였다.

평활화 기법을 이용한 파랑 첨두주기 최적 추정 (Optimal Estimation of the Peak Wave Period using Smoothing Method)

  • 이욱재;이병욱;고동휘;조홍연
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제34권6호
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    • pp.266-274
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구에서는 한반도 서해안에 위치한 해상기상관측타워에서 관측된 수면변동자료를 이용하여 첨두주기 산정의 정확도 향상을 위한 평활화 기법을 적용하였다. 평활화 기법 적용에 대한 검증은 파형의 분산값과 관측 자료의 에너지 총량을 통해 수행하였으며, 이후 평활화 적용에 대한 영향을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 파형의 분산값과 관측 자료의 에너지 총량의 상관계수는 0.9994로 나타났으며, 해당 기법 적용에 문제가 없음을 확인하였다. 이후, 평활화 영향 검토를 수행한 결과, 기존 추정 스펙트럼의 신뢰구간에 비해 최대 26% 감소하는 것으로 나타남으로서, 추정되는 첨두주기의 정확도가 향상됨을 확인하였다. 평활화 적용으로 인하여 4~6초 사이에서 확률밀도는 통계적으로 유의미한 차이가 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 최적 평활화를 위해 통계적 기법을 이용하여 유의파고 범위에 따른 적정 평활화 개수를 산정하였으며, 평활화 개수는 유의파고가 작아짐에 따라 불안정한 스펙트럼 형상에 의해 증가하는 것으로 나타났다.

임산부의 의료기관 정보탐색과 성과 (Information Search for the Choice of Delivery Care Institution and Its Effects)

  • 권순호;한달선
    • 한국병원경영학회지
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.219-237
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    • 1998
  • Economists have identified informed consumer choice as one element of a better-functioning health care market, and thus increased attention is directed to the role of information in the health care system. In this country, however, little work has been done for understanding consumers' search behavior in health care market. Based upon this observation, expectant mothers' information search for the choice of delivery care institution was investigated. In doing so, two hypotheses were proposed: 1) Those women who were more active in the search for information would make choice of a delivery care institution with more confidence and would feel greater subsequent satisfaction. 2) The activeness of expectant mothers in information search would depend upon their various personal characteristics, such as socio-economic status, obstetric conditions, and knowledge and attitudes in relation to delivery and health care. The data used for the analysis were collected through face-to-face interviews with those women who had childbirth during the period from January 1, 1996 to the date of interview in February 1998. The survey was conducted using prepared structured questionnaire in Seoul. The sample was drawn from each of arbitrarily defined four regions of Seoul, Northeast, Northwest, Southeast and Southwest, in proportion to the number of births reported in 1996 in each of them. The distribution of the interviewed women by educational level was made similar to that of mothers of new babies reported in 1996. The sample size was planned to be about 300, but ended up with 319. The results of analysis were generally consistent with the proposed hypotheses. Apparently, information increased expectant mothers' confidence in selecting a delivery care institution and subsequent satisfaction with the institution. Indication is that policy efforts should be strengthened to produce and disseminate relevant, comprehensible and credible information that can aid patient decision making. Also, attention should be directed to motivate patients to actively engage in information search from adequate sources.

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측정과 관련된 실험 활동에서 보이는 초등학생의 대푯값 선정 및 신뢰 방법 분석 (An Analysis of Elementary Students' Selection of Representable Value and Confident Method That Appear in Measuring Activities)

  • 양일호;임성만;임재근;송진령
    • 한국초등과학교육학회지:초등과학교육
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.263-276
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the elementary students' selection of representable value and confident method that appear in measuring activities by using a microgenetic method. The participants were seven elementary students in the fourth grade. They performed the same measuring activities six times for the study period. Data were collected by interview and observation with their activity recording papers and video tape transcription. Their activities were recorded and documented for the analysis. Results were as follows. First, in the time measuring activity, elementary students developed desirably as their measuring experience increased, for example they selected a representable value in use of a repeated measurement and used a various method in the domain of a time measurement and they showed an increase of a quantitative observation in the volume domain except in the length domain. Second, in a confident method of a representable value, though they must rely upon a repeated measurement, they only measure repeatedly in the time domain. Also in the time domain, it doesn't get accomplished a exact confidence of a representable value at a shortage of skill about a measurement. Accordingly this study will be implications for teachers to teach a handling abilities of measuring instruments to elementary students and to be promote understanding a nature of measurement.

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Observational approach on regional lymph node in cutaneous melanomas of extremities

  • Jang, Bum-Sup;Eom, Keun-Yong;Cho, Hwan Seong;Song, Changhoon;Kim, In Ah;Kim, Jae-Sung
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: We evaluated failure pattern and treatment outcomes of observational approach on regional lymph node (LN) in cutaneous melanoma of extremities and sought to find clinico-pathologic factors related to LN metastases. Material and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 73 patients with cutaneous melanoma of extremities between 2005 and 2016. If preoperative 18-F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) findings were non-specific for regional LNs, surgical resection of primary tumors with adequate margins was performed without sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and/or complete lymph node dissection (CLND), irrespective of tumor thickness or size. In patients with suspicious or positive findings on PET/CT or CT, SLNB followed by CLND or CLND was performed at the discretion of the surgeon. We defined LN dissection (LND) as SLNB and/or CLND. Results: With a median follow-up of 38 months (range, 6 to 138 months), the dominant pattern of failure was regional failure (17 of total 23 events, 74%) in the observation group (n = 56). Pathologic LN metastases were significant factor for poor regional failure-free survival (hazard ration [HR] = 3.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-10.33; p = 0.044) and overall survival (HR = 3.62; 95% CI, 1.02-12.94; p = 0.047) in multivariate analysis. In subgroup analysis for cN0 patients according to the preoperative PET/CT findings, LND group showed the better trend of LRFFS (log rank test, p = 0.192) and RFFS (p = 0.310), although which is not statistically significant. Conclusion: Observational approach on regional LNs on the basis of the PET/CT in patients with cutaneous melanoma of extremities showed the dominant regional failure pattern compared to upfront LND approach. To reveal regional lymph node status, SLND for cN0 patients may of importance in managing cutaneous melanoma patients.

과학 영재의 역량 탐색 및 역량 사전의 개발 (A Study on Science-gifted Students' Competency and Development of Competency Dictionary)

  • 강성주;김은혜;윤지현
    • 영재교육연구
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.353-370
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    • 2012
  • 최근 과학 영재 교육 대상자의 선발 제도로 관찰 추천제가 도입되었으며, 이는 잠재적 역량이 높은 과학 영재를 파악할 수 있는 신뢰롭고 타당한 선발 기준의 마련을 요구하고 있다. 이에 이 연구에서는 과학 영재의 내적 속성에 대한 변별을 도울 수 있는 역량을 탐색하고, 이를 사전화하였다. 검증된 선행 역량 사전/모델로부터 역량을 추출하고, 구조화된 설문과 초점 집단 면접을 통해 과학 영재의 역량을 규명하였다. 연구 결과, '목표 제시', '계획 수립', '정보 수집 및 분석', '문제 해결', '고차원적 사고', '전문 지식 및 자기 개발'의 6개 역량으로 구성된 인지적 역량군과 '자신감', '성취 지향성', '호기심'의 3개 역량으로 구성된 정의적 역량군을 도출하였다. 그리고 도출된 역량을 바탕으로 역량명과 역량에 대한 정의, 핵심 요소, 행동지표와 수준으로 구성된 역량 사전을 개발하였다. 이 연구 결과는 관찰 추천을 통한 잠재적인 과학 영재의 선발 기준에 대한 시사점을 제공할 것으로 기대된다.

충청지역 극한강우지수의 시공간적 경향과 변동성 분석 (Analysis of Spatial-temporal Variability and Trends of Extreme Precipitation Indices over Chungcheong Province, South Korea)

  • Bashir, Adelodun;Golden, Odey;Seulgi, Lee;Kyung Sook, Choi
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제64권6호
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    • pp.101-112
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    • 2022
  • Extreme precipitation events have recently become a leading cause of disasters. Thus, investigating the variability and trends of extreme precipitation is crucial to mitigate the increasing impact of such events. Spatial distribution and temporal trends in annual precipitation and four extreme precipitation indices of duration (CWD), frequency (R10 mm), intensity (Rx1day), and percentile-based threshold (R95pTOT) were analyzed using the daily precipitation data of 10 observation stations in Chungcheong province during 1974-2020. The precipitation at all observation stations, except the Boryeong station, showed nonsignificant increasing trends at 95% confidence level (CL) and increasing magnitudes from the west to east regions. The high variability in mean annual precipitation was more pronounced around the northeast and northwest regions. Similarly, there were moderate to high patterns in extreme precipitation indices around the northeast region. However, the precipitation indices of duration and frequency consistently increased from the west to east regions, while those of intensity and percentile-based threshold increased from the south to east regions. Nonsignificant increasing trends dominated in CWD, R10 mm, and Rx1day at all stations, except for R10 mm at Boeun station and Rx1day at Cheongju and Jecheon stations, which showed a significantly increasing trend. The spatial distribution of trend magnitude shows that R10 mm increased from the west to east regions. Furthermore, variations in precipitation were very strongly correlated (99% CL) with R10 mm, Rx1day, and R95pTOT at all stations, except with wR10 mm at Cheongju station, which was strongly correlated with a 95% CL.

Clinical evaluation of 3.0-mm narrow-diameter implants: a retrospective study with up to 5 years of observation

  • InKyung Hwang;Tae-Il Kim;Young-Dan Cho
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • 제54권1호
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    • pp.44-52
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes of a single type of narrow-diameter implant (NDI) by investigating its survival rate and peri-implant marginal bone loss (MBL). In addition, variables possibly related to implant survival and MBL were investigated to identify potential risk factors. Methods: The study was conducted as a retrospective study involving 49 patients who had received 3.0-mm diameter TSIII implants (Osstem Implant Co.) at Seoul National University Dental Hospital. In total, 64 implants were included, and dental records and radiographic data were collected from 2017 to 2022. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a Cox proportional hazard model were used to estimate the implant survival rate and to investigate the effects of age, sex, jaw, implant location, implant length, the stage of surgery, guided bone regeneration, type of implant placement, and the surgeon's proficiency (resident or professor) on implant survival. The MBL of the NDIs was measured, and the factors influencing MBL were evaluated. Results: The mean observation period was 30.5 months (interquartile range, 26.75-45 months), and 6 out of 64 implants failed. The survival rate of the NDIs was 90.6%, and the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age was associated with implant failure (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.31, P=0.01). The mean MBL was 0.44±0.75 mm, and no factors showed statistically significant associations with greater MBL. Conclusions: NDIs can be considered a primary alternative when standard-diameter implants are unsuitable. However, further studies are required to confirm their long-term stability.

버어리종 담배중 암모니아성 질소에 대한 불확도 측정 (Uncertainty Evaluation of Ammonia Determination in Burley Tobacco)

  • 이정민;이경구;한상빈
    • 한국연초학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2005
  • The uncertainty of measurement in quantitative analysis of ammonia by continuous-flow analysis method was evaluated following internationally accepted guidelines. The sources of uncertainty associated with the analysis of ammonia were the weighing of sample, the preparation of extracting solution, the addition of extracting solution into the sample, the reproducibility of analysis and the determination of water content in tobacco, etc. In calculating uncertainties, Type A of uncertainty was evaluated by the statistical analysis of a series of observation, and Type B by the information based on supplier's catalogue and/or certificated of calibration. It was shown that the main source of uncertainty was caused by the volume measurement of 1 mL and 2 mL, the purity of ammonia reference material in the preparation of standard solution, the reproducibility of analysis and the determination of water content of tobacco. The uncertainty in the addition of extraction solution, the sample weighing, the volume measurement of 50 mL and 100 mL, and the calibration curve of standard solution contributed relatively little to the overall uncertainty. The expanded uncertainty of ammonia determination in burley tobacco at $95\%$ level of confidence was $0.00997\%$.

Numerical modelling of FRP strengthened RC beam-column joints

  • Mahini, Seyed S.;Ronagh, Hamid R.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제32권5호
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    • pp.649-665
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    • 2009
  • This paper reports part of a comprehensive research study conducted at the University of Queensland on the ability of CFRP web-bonded systems in strengthening an exterior beam-column joint subjected to monotonic loads. One 1/2.2 scaled plain and four CFRP repaired/retrofitted joints subjected to monotonic loads were analysed using the nonlinear finite-element program ANSYS and the results were calibrated against experiments. The ANSYS model was employed in order to account for tension stiffening in concrete after cracking and a modified version of the Hognestad's model was used to model the concrete compressive strength. The stress-strain properties of main steel bars were modelled using multilinear isotropic hardening model and the FRPs were modelled as anisotropic materials. A perfect bond was assumed as nodes were shared between adjacent elements irrespective of their type. Good agreement between the numerical predictions and the experimental observation of the failure mechanisms for all specimens were observed. Closeness of these results proved that the numerical analysis can be used by design engineers for the analysis of web-bonded FRP strengthened beam-column joints with confidence.