• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.61-72
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• 2001

기존의 링크교통량으로부터 OD추정모형은 기존 OD에 대한 추정의 종속성이 커, 기존 OD나 관측링크교통량의 오차에 따라 추정결과가 일관적이지 않은 문제점을 가지고 있다. 또한 관측링크교통량의 정확도가 중요함에도 불구하고 차종구분 없이 링크교통량을 이용하여 정보의 손실을 초래하였고 결과적으로 OD 추정력을 저하시켰다. 그렇지만 다차종 링크교통량으로부터 다차종 OD를 구하는 연구는 거의 없었으며, 그 추정결과가 단일차종에 대한 추정결과와 어떻게 다른지에 대한 연구도 전무하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 기존의 OD 추정모형이 기존 OD에 대해 종속성을 가지며 차종구분 없이 모형을 구성함으로써 추정력의 저하를 초래하였음을 밝히고, 이에 대한 대안으로 종속성 문제를 완화하고 차종구분을 통해 OD 추정모형의 추정력을 증진시키자 하는 것이다. 이를 위해 유전알고리즘을 이용한 다차종 OD행렬 추정모형(GAMUC)을 구축하고, 이를 기존의 바이레벨 모형의 IEA 알고리즘 및 다차종으로 확장한 모형(IEAMUC)과 게임이론측면에서 검토하였으며, 사례네트워크에 대해 각 기법을 비교하였다. 본 연구는 유전알고리즘을 이용한 OD 추정기법을 축도로에 적용한 임용택 등(2000)과 이를 네트워크로 확장한 백승걸 등(2000)의 연구를 다차종으로 확장한 것이다. 사례분석 결과 기존 OD의 오차변화나 관측링크교통량의 오차변화 등에 있어 GAMUC가 IEA나 IEAMUC보다 추정력이 양호하여, 실제 OD를 알 수 없는 도시부 네트워크에서 GAMUC 모형의 적용력이 우수하였다. 또한 차종을 구분하지 않은 기존 모형은 실제 OD와는 전혀 다른 OD 구조를 도출할 수 있음을 보였으며, 단일 차종을 여러 차종으로 구분하여 OD를 추정하는 것이 더 양호한 추정력을 확보하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 2002.02a
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• pp.17-42
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• 2002

전통적인 OD조사에 의한 OD추정의 여러 문제점들로 인해 링크관측교통량과 기존OD를 결합해 OD를 추정하고자 하는 연구들이 제시되고 있다. Yang(1995)은 일반화최소자승법을 풀기 위한 IEA와 SAB 알고리즘을 제시하였다. 그러나 두 알고리즘의 문제점은 첫째 실제 OD를 알기가 어렵기 때문에 기존 OD를 중요한 추정기준으로 설정한다는 것으로, 이러한 추정의 종속성으로 인해, 기존 OD와 실제 OD의 차이가 큰 경우 정확한 해를 도출하지 못한다. 두 번째 문제는 통행패턴 추정시 선형근사화를 가정하기 때문에 게임이론적 측면에서 전제로 설정한 완전한 Stackelberg 상황을 구현하지 못한다는 것이다. 이러한 문제점을 피하기 위해서는 기존 OD나 관측교통량의 오차에 일관적인 해도출 기법이 필요하다. OD추정 문제는 본질적으로 비선형이고 비볼록하여 전역해 탐색기법이 필요하기 때문에 전역최적화가 가능한 유전알고리즘을 이용한 OD추정모형(GAM)을 개발하였다. 사례네트워크 분석결과, GAM은 기존 OD의 오차에 대해 크게 종속적이지 않으며 OD구조가 변하는 경우에도 추정이 가능하여, 일반적으로 실제 OD를 알 수 없는(기존OD의 오차가 어느 정도인지를 알 수 없는) 도시부 네트워크에서 신뢰성있는 추정력을 보였다. 또한 기존 OD 추정모형은 비교적 용이하게 차종별로 관측할 수 있는 링크교통량을 차종구분 없이 단일차종으로 이용함으로써, 정보의 손실을 초래하여 결과적으로 모형의 추정력을 저하시켰다. 그렇지만 다차종 링크관측교통량으로부터 다차종 OD 추정연구는 거의 없었으며, 그 결과가 단일차종에 대한 추정결과와 어떻게 다른지에 대한 연구도 전무하였다. 본 연구에서는 유전알고리즘을 이용한 OD 추정모형을 다수단 OD 추정모형(GAMUC)으로 확대하였다. 사례 분석 결과 단일차종 OD추정기법은 심각한 추정오류를 범할 수 있으며, 그 적용성도 낮다는 것을 보였다. 다차종 OD 추정기법이 단일차종 OD 추정기법보다 양호한 추정력을 보였으며, 다차종 기법 중에서는 GAMUC가 IEAMUC보다 우수한 추정력을 보였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.57-66
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• 2004

When we estimate an origin-destination matrix from traffic counts. origin-destination matrix estimation from traffic counts according to the selected optimal traffic counting links is method for improving the results of origin-destinaation matrix estimation and for increasing economic efficiency. This paper proposed model of selecting traffic counting links using integer program technique, and selected a traffic counting links using this model, and estimated and origin-destingtion matrix from traffic counts according to the selected optimal traffic counting links. Also, we compared a result of estimating origin-destination matrix from the selected optimal traffic counting links using this model to a result of estimating origin-destination matrix from the randomly selected traffic counting links. The error analysis result was more improved a result of origin-destination matrix estimation using this model than a result of randomly selected links.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.4 s.82
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• pp.57-69
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• 2005

The goal of this paper is to develop freeway Origin-Destination (OD) demand estimation model using real-time traffic data collected from Freeway Traffic Management System (FTMS). In existing research, the micro-simulation models had been used to get a link distribution proportion by time process. Because of hi-level problem between the traffic flow model and the optimal OD solution algorithm, it is difficult for the existing models to be loaded at FTMS. The formulation of methodology proposed in this paper includes traffic flow technique to be able to remove the bi-level problem and optimal solution algorithm using a genetic algorithm. The proposed methodology is evaluated by using the real-time data of SOHAEAN freeway, South Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.131-142
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• 2001

Previous OD matrix estimation methods from link traffic counts have focused on the formulation of mathematical model and its solution algorithm. Thereby those methods have assumed that true or real OD is similar to the target OD and paid little attention to the properties of the change of OD structure. Although it is general situation that each OD pair increases or decreases due to significant land use and to large time variation between target OD with real OD, those methods have set unrealistic assumptions that target OD increases or decreases uniformly and that the OD structure does not change. Therefore those methods have showed poor performance of OD estimation in general situation. To cope with the problem. this paper suggests a new concept of OD matrix structure and shows the shortcomings of previous method′s dependancy on target OD matrix. We divide "OD trips" into "OD scale" and "OD structure". Where OD scale is a quantitative magnitude of OD trips and "OD structure" is ordinal OD scale. This paper use the same solution algorithm developed by Baek et al. (2000) for analysing the OD structure. Results of numerical examples show that the performance of the method is better than that of previous methods, while the previous methods have better performance in estimation only when OD trips increase or decrease. In addition to, if OD structure does not change, the results show that the error of estimation is low relatively regardless of the large difference of trips between target OD and real OD. This paper also shows that the model performance on OD structure and on OD trips is low as the number of origins that OD structure is changed increase. From the results we suggest that the change of OD structure can be more important information than the difference between target OD and real OD in OD estimation steps.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.89-99
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• 2000

To cope with the limits of conventional O-D trip matrix collecting methods, several approaches have been developed. One of them is bilevel Programming method Proposed by Yang(1995), which uses Sensitivity Analysis Based(SAB) algorithm to solve Generalized Least Square(GLS) problem. However, the SAB a1gorithm has revealed two critical short-comings. The first is that when there exists a significant difference between target O-D matrix and true O-D matrix, SAB algorithm may not produce correct solution. This stems from the heavy dependance on the historical O-D information, in special when gravel Patterns are dramatically changed. The second is the assumption of iterative linear approximation to original Problem. Because of the approximation, SAB algorithm has difficulty in converging to Perfect Stackelberg game condition. So as to avoid the Problems. we need a more robust and stable solution method. The main purpose of this Paper is to show the problem of the dependency of Previous models and to Propose an alternative solution method to handle it. The Problem of O-D matrix estimation is intrinsically nonlinear and nonconvex. thus it has multiple solutions. Therefore it is necessary to require a method for searching globa1 solution. In this paper, we develop a solution algorithm combined with genetic algorithm(GA) , which is widely used as probabilistic global searching method To compare the efficiency of the algorithm, SAB algorithm suggested by Yang et al. (1992,1995) is used. From the results of numerical example, the Proposed algorithm is superior to SAB algorithm irrespective of travel patterns.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.3 s.81
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• pp.61-71
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• 2005

We evaluated the availability of Origin-Destination Matrix from traffic counts Using conjugate gradient method to large scale networks by applying it to the networks in 246 zones. As a result of the analysis of the consistency of the model on Nationwide Networks, the upper and lower levels in model had the systematic relationship internally. From the analysis of the estimable power or the model according to the number of traffic counting links, the error in traffic volume had the estimable power in the range of permissible error. In addition, the estimable power of estimation of an Origin-Destination Matrix was more satisfactory than that of existing methods. We conclude that conjugate gradient method cab be applied to nationwide networks if we can make sure that the algorithm of the developed model is reliable by doing various kinds of experiment.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.117-126
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• 2000

Conventional methods for collecting origin-destination trips have been mainly relied on the surveys of home or roadside interview. However, the methods tend to be costly, labor intensive and time disruptive to the trip makers, thus the methods are not considered suitable for Planning applications such as routing guidance, arterial management and information Provision, as the parts of deployments in Intelligent Transport Systems Motivated by the problems, more economic ways to estimate origin-destination trip tables have been studied since the late 1970s. Some of them, which have been estimating O-D table from link traffic counts are generally Entropy maximizing, Maximum likelihood, Generalized least squares(GLS), and Bayesian inference estimation etc. In the Paper, with user equilibrium constraint we formulate GLS problem for estimating O-D trips and develop a solution a1gorithm by using Genetic Algorithm, which has been known as a g1oba1 searching technique. For the purpose of evaluating the method, we apply it to Seoul inner ringroad and compare it with gradient method proposed by Spiess(1990). From the resu1ts we fond that the method developed in the Paper is superior to other.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.83-93
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• 2002

To improve the performance of estimation, the research that uses additional information addition to traffic count and target OD with additional survey cost have been studied. The purpose of this paper is to improve the performance of OD estimation by reducing the feasible solutions with cost-efficiently additional information addition to traffic counts and target OD. For this purpose, we Propose the OD estimation method with sample link use proportion as additional information. That is, we obtain the relationship between OD trip and link flow from sample link use proportion that is high reliable information with roadside survey, not from the traffic assignment of target OD. Therefore, this paper proposes OD estimation algorithm in which the conservation of link flow rule under the path-based non-equilibrium traffic assignment concept. Numerical result with test network shows that it is possible to improve the performance of OD estimation where the precision of additional data is low, since sample link use Proportion represented the information showing the relationship between OD trip and link flow. And this method shows the robust performance of estimation where traffic count or OD trip be changed, since this method did not largely affected by the error of target OD and the one of traffic count. In addition to, we also propose that we must set the level of data precision by considering the level of other information precision, because "precision problem between information" is generated when we use additional information like sample link use proportion etc. And we Propose that the method using traffic count as basic information must obtain the link flow to certain level in order to high the applicability of additional information. Finally, we propose that additional information on link have a optimal counting location problem. Expecially by Precision of information side it is possible that optimal survey location problem of sample link use proportion have a much impact on the performance of OD estimation rather than optimal counting location problem of link flow.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.1 s.72
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• pp.43-62
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• 2004

Conventionally the estimation method of the origin-destination Matrix has been developed by implementing the expansion of sampled data obtained from roadside interview and household travel survey. In the survey process, the bigger the sample size is, the higher the level of limitation, due to taking time for an error test for a cost and a time. Estimating the O-D matrix from observed traffic count data has been applied as methods of over-coming this limitation, and a gradient model is known as one of the most popular techniques. However, in case of the gradient model, although it may be capable of minimizing the error between the observed and estimated traffic volumes, a prior O-D matrix structure cannot maintained exactly. That is to say, unwanted changes may be occurred. For this reason, this study adopts a conjugate gradient algorithm to take into account two factors: estimation of the O-D matrix from the conjugate gradient algorithm while reflecting the prior O-D matrix structure maintained. This development of the O-D matrix estimation model is to minimize the error between observed and estimated traffic volumes. This study validates the model using the simple network, and then applies it to a large scale network. There are several findings through the tests. First, as the consequence of consistency, it is apparent that the upper level of this model plays a key role by the internal relationship with lower level. Secondly, as the respect of estimation precision, the estimation error is lied within the tolerance interval. Furthermore, the structure of the estimated O-D matrix has not changed too much, and even still has conserved some attributes.