• Atmosphere
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.21-39
• /
• 2019

The conventional observations of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are compared in the numerical weather forecast system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). The weather forecasting system used in this study is consists of Korea Integrated Model (KIM) as a global numerical weather prediction model, three-dimensional variational method as a data assimilation system, and KIAPS Package for Observation Processing (KPOP) as an observation pre-processing system. As a result, the forecast performance of NCEP observation was better while the number of observation is similar to the KMA observation. In addition, the sensitivity of forecast performance was investigated for each SONDE, SURFACE and AIRCRAFT observations. The differences in AIRCRAFT observation were not sensitive to forecast, but the use of NCEP SONDE and SURFACE observations have shown better forecast performance. It is found that the NCEP observations have more wind observations of the SONDE in the upper atmosphere and more surface pressure observations of the SURFACE in the ocean. The results suggest that evenly distributed observations can lead to improved forecast performance.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.99-106
• /
• 2010

In this paper, we present two methods for obtaining prediction intervals for the times to failure of units censored in multiple stages in a progressively censored sample from proportional hazard rate models. A numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are presented to illustrate the prediction methods.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.31 no.2
• /
• pp.185-198
• /
• 2021

In this study, we examined a spatial downscaling method based on Gradient and Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS) weighting to produce high-resolution grid data from a numerical weather prediction model over Korean Peninsula with complex terrain. The GIDS is a simple and effective geostatistical downscaling method using horizontal distance gradients and an elevation. The predicted meteorological variables (e.g., temperature and 3-hr accumulated rainfall amount) from the Limited-area ENsemble prediction System (LENS; horizontal grid spacing of 3 km) are used for the GIDS to produce a higher horizontal resolution (1.5 km) data set. The obtained results were compared to those from the bilinear interpolation. The GIDS effectively produced high-resolution gridded data for temperature with the continuous spatial distribution and high dependence on topography. The results showed a better agreement with the observation by increasing a searching radius from 10 to 30 km. However, the GIDS showed relatively lower performance for the precipitation variable. Although the GIDS has a significant efficiency in producing a higher resolution gridded temperature data, it requires further study to be applied for rainfall events.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
• /
• v.16 no.6
• /
• pp.407-419
• /
• 2007

This study investigated the predicted and abserved outflow of groundwater which occurred during tunnel constructions. Among the 586 road construction projects from 1986 to 2006, 4 route 25 tunnel construction areas and 26 waste water treatment facilities under construction were studied. Most of the tunnel outflow prediction in EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) process have been classified into the 17 types of units depending on the assessor's options, which have not conformed to the request of the residents and non government organizations. The investigation results showed that the outflow of underground water in tunnel construction areas averaged about $0.133m^3/km{\cdot}min$ with the maximum $0.386m^3/km{\cdot}min$, and that the outflow mostly occurred in the early stage of tunnel excavation and diminished gradually. The prediction of outflow of underground water in the EIA process showed excessive results compared to observed outflow, the even 51.7 times. Consequently for more realistic prediction, current EIA method for prediction of outflow of underground water in tunnel construction areas has to adopt numerical methods coupled with hydraulics and geologic informations from unit methods of present time.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.173-188
• /
• 2016

Generally, thermal stress induced by hydration heat causes cracking in mass concrete structures, requiring a thorough control during the construction. The prediction of the thermal stress is currently undertaken by means of numerical analysis despite its lack of reliability due to the properties of concrete varying over time. In this paper, a method for the prediction of thermal stress in concrete structures by adjusting thermal stress measured by a thermal stress device according to the degree of restraint is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy. The ratio of stress in concrete structures to stress under complete restraint is used as the degree of restraint. To consider the history of the degree of restraint, incremental stress is predicted by comparing the degree of restraint and the incremental stress obtained by the thermal stress device. Furthermore, the thermal stresses of wall and foundation predicted by the proposed method are compared to those obtained by numerical analysis. The thermal stresses obtained by the proposed method are similar to those obtained by the analysis for structures with internally as well as externally strong restraint. It is therefore concluded that the prediction of thermal stress for concrete structures with various boundary conditions using the proposed method is suggested to be accurate.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.181-188
• /
• 2001

We describe here the Korea ocean prediction system that closely resembles operational numerical weather prediction systems. This prediction system will be served for real-time forecasts. The core of the system is a three-dimensional primitive equation numerical circulation model, based on ${\sigma}$-coordinate. Remotely sensed multi-channel sea surface temperature (MCSST) is imposed at the surface. Residual subsurface temperature is assimilated through the relationship between vertical temperature structure function and residual of sea surface height (RSSH) using an optimal interpolation scheme. A unified grid system, named as [K-E-Y], that covers the entire seas around Korea is used. We present and compare hindcasting results during 1990-1999 from a model forced by MCSST without incorporating RSSH data assimilation and the one with both MCSST and RSSH assimilated. The data assimilation is applied only in the East Sea, hence the comparison focuses principally on the mesoscale features prevalent in the East Sea. It is shown that the model with the data assimilation exhibits considerable skill in simulating both the permanent and transient mesoscale features in the East Sea.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.25-37
• /
• 2015

To predict the surface subsidence of salt rock storage, a new surface subsidence basin model is proposed based on the Logistic function from the phenomenological perspective. Analysis shows that the subsidence curve on the main section of the model is S-shaped, similar to that of the actual surface subsidence basin; the control parameter of the subsidence curve shape can be changed to allow for flexible adjustment of the curve shape. By using this model in combination with the MMF time function that reflects the single point subsidence-time relationship of the surface, a new dynamic prediction model of full section surface subsidence for salt rock storage is established, and the numerical simulation calculation results are used to verify the availability of the new model. The prediction results agree well with the numerical simulation results, and the model reflects the continued development of surface subsidence basin over time, which is expected to provide some insight into the prediction and visualization research on surface subsidence of salt rock storage.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
• /
• 2005.07b
• /
• pp.226-228
• /
• 2005

Predicting the cellular location of an unknown protein gives valuable information for inferring the possible function of the protein. For more accurate Prediction system, we need a good feature extraction method that transforms the raw sequence data into the numerical feature vector, minimizing information loss. In this paper we propose new methods of extracting underlying features only from the sequence data by computing pairwise sequence alignment scores. In addition, we use composition based features to improve prediction accuracy. To construct an SVM ensemble from separately trained SVM classifiers, we propose specificity based weighted majority voting . The overall prediction accuracy evaluated by the 5-fold cross-validation reached $88.53\%$ for the eukaryotic animal data set. By comparing the prediction accuracy of various feature extraction methods, we could get the biological insight on the location of targeting information. Our numerical experiments confirm that our new feature extraction methods are very useful forpredicting subcellular localization of proteins.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.495-508
• /
• 2016

In order to determine the prediction possibility of heavy rainfall, a variety of analyses was conducted by using three-dimensional data obtained from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) re-analysis data. Strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Heavy rainfall occurred in the cloud system with a thick convective clouds. The moisture convergence, temperature and potential temperature advection showed increase into the heavy rainfall occurrence area. The distribution of integrated liquid water content tended to decrease as rainfall increased and was characterized by accelerated convective instability along with increased buoyant energy. In addition, changes were noted in the various characteristics of instability indices such as K-index (KI), Showalter Stability Index (SSI), and lifted index (LI). The meteorological variables used in the analysis showed clear increases or decreases according to the changes in rainfall amount. These rapid changes as well as the meteorological variables changes are attributed to the surrounding and meteorological conditions. Thus, we verified that heavy rainfall can be predicted according to such increase, decrease, or changes. This study focused on quantitative values and change characteristics of diagnostic variables calculated by using numerical models rather than by focusing on synoptic analysis at the time of the heavy rainfall occurrence, thereby utilizing them as prognostic variables in the study of the predictability of heavy rainfall. These results can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of such precipitation. In the analysis of various case studies of heavy rainfall in the future, our study result can be utilized to show the development of the prediction of severe weather.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.32 no.3
• /
• pp.245-250
• /
• 2008

Recently the numerical prediction technique is applied to many fields, because numerical models are developed so much for last decades. The real-time ocean prediction system is one of them and is capable of providing the real-time marine information for users to promote the safety af maritime traffic and preservation of marine resources. The system is composed of observing system, data distribution system and modelling system. In this study authors develop the modelling system and show the results as preliminary study for establishing the real-time ocean prediction system in Busan port. The system test is performed only for M2 tidal modelling due to the lack qf observation data, thus a full-scale test is required in future if enough data are provided Also observing system and data distribution system will be constructed continuously in future, then service for real-time data for users will be initiated.