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Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

The Efficiency Rating Prediction for Cultural Tourism Festival Based of DEA (DEA를 적용한 문화관광축제의 효율성 등급 예측모형)

  • Kim, Eun-Mi;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.145-157
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    • 2020
  • Purpose This study proposed an approach for predicting the efficiency rating of the cultural tourism festivals using DEA and machine learning techniques. The cultural tourism festivals are selected for the best festivals through peer reviews by tourism experts. However, only 10% of the festivals which are held in a year could be evaluated in the view of effectiveness without considering the efficiency of festivals. Design/methodology/approach Efficiency scores were derived from the results of DEA for the prediction of efficiency ratings. This study utilized BCC models to reflect the size effect of festivals and classified the festivals into four ratings according the efficiency scores. Multi-classification method were considered to build the prediction of four ratings for the festivals in this study. We utilized neural networks and SVMs with OAO(one-against-one), OAR(one-against-rest), C&S(crammer & singer) with Korea festival data from 2013 to 2018. Findings The number of total visitors in low efficient rating of DEA is more larger than the number of total visitors in high efficient ratings although the total expenditure of visitors is the highest in the most efficient rating when we analyzed the results of DEA for the characteristics of four ratings. SVM with OAO model showed the most superior performance in accuracy as SVM with OAR model was not trained well because of the imbalanced distribution between efficient rating and the other ratings. Our approach could predict the efficiency of festivals which were not included in the review process of culture tourism festivals without rebuilding DEA models each time. This enables us to manage the festivals efficiently with the proposed machine learning models.

The Effects of Traditional Market Support Projects and Competition Intensity of Stores on Store Sales and Number of Visitors (전통시장 지원사업과 경쟁 강도가 점포매출액과 방문고객 수에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Chul-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the government support project on traditional market and the interaction effect between the government support project and the competition intensity. Therefore, this study focuses on the competition intensity of individual stores in traditional markets, unlike the traditional research flow, which is beyond the competitive structure of traditional markets and large retailers. Research design, data, and methodology - This study is based on the data of 'Statistics of Traditional Market in 2017'. In this study, a multiple regression equation was constructed using the number of government support projects as an independent variable, competition intensity as an interaction, and sales per store, number of customers per store as a dependent variable for analysis. A multiple regression equation was constructed for the main effect analysis. To investigate the effect of the interaction, cohen(1980)'s regression equation and two-way ANOVA were used. Results - First, according to this study, the traditional market participated in the government support project showed that the sales and the number of visitors per store in the traditional market were higher than those in the non-participation market. Second, the impact of government support projects on sales per store(also number of visiting customers per store) can be different depending on the competition intensity. More specifically, if the market is politically supported by a market with a high level of competition, it may be more effective than the market with no support. Conclusions - Based on the results of the study, we suggested academic and practical implications and suggested that competition intensity of stores in the traditional market should be considered in the future. The implications of this study are as follows. First, the effects of the government's traditional market support project were analyzed empirically. Second, this study is different from the previous studies in that it examined the competitive strengths and the effects of individual stores in traditional markets, away from competition between traditional market and large retailers. Third, it provided practical implications for the operation of government support projects.

The City Growth & its Nature in South Korea. (남한도시인구의 팽창과 그 생태)

  • ;Lee, Han Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.1
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    • pp.67-82
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    • 1963
  • This paper examined the settlement and evolution of the Namdo Food Festival holding in Nakan folk village since 1994. The Namdo Food Festival is a representative event tourism in Chonnam which beautifully displays Nakan eup-sung's folk landscape and Namdo's traditional food, a prime tourist resource. Since 1994, the Namdo Food Festival has steadily evoloved in the scale aspects of the program budget, and the number of visitors participating in festiva. In addition, the period of the food festival was fixed for a week, early in October. The majority of visitors to the festival was from Kwangju. Moreover, visitors from other provinces have steadily increased, in particular visitors from Yeongnam province such as Pusas and Kyeongnam provinces have increased since 1996. In order to settle down and develop the Namdo Food Festival, the followings should be done change of the ownership from public to private sector, training of professional entertainers, development of programs which can reinforce historical aspects and placeness of Nakan folk village, adoption of management technoques for the local economic activities, and extension of linkage with tourists places around Nakan folk village, reflection of tourists interests and needs through a continuoua tourist's behaviour analysis.

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Development Process of Activities about Urban and Rural Interchange and Its Characteristics for Making Continuous Profit in Underdeveloped Rural Village -The Case of Cheonjang-ri(Alps village), Mount Chilgab-Region in Comprehensive Rural Village Development Project- (낙후농촌의 지속적 수익 창출 위한 도농교류활동 개발 전개과정과 특징 -농촌마을종합개발사업 칠갑산권역 천장리(알프스마을)을 사례로-)

  • Kim, Du-Han
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.35-49
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    • 2013
  • The study area is Cheonjang-ri, also called Alps village, making continuous profit after performing Comprehensive Rural Village Development Projects. This study aims to determine the development process of activities about urban and rural interchange and its characteristics for making continuous profit by residents themselves. A focus on thinking about the process is necessary to make activities in order to achieve continuous profits in the underdeveloped rural village by residents themselves. As a result of this study, Alps village has developed new activities, improving problems which are encountered on the development process of activities. And, Alps village has developed new activities by linking them with previous activities. To improve problems, Alps village has made an effort by itself and cooperated with the subject, both inside and outside of the village. This way has been effective for increasing the number of visitors in village. Increasing the number of visitors in village has been effective in making a continuous profit. Also, continuing to make new activities in order to substitute previous activities including problems has been effective to increase profit.

A Study on the Exhibitors' Objectives and Choice Attributes of Participating in Trade Fairs Using R-IPA (R-IPA를 활용한 무역박람회 참가업체의 전시회 선택요인과 참가목적에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Suk;Jeong, Yoon-Say
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.57-73
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    • 2019
  • The purposes of this study are to propose exhibition planning and management skills of trade fair organizers and to provide suggestions on the direction of government policies related to fair items. This study analyzes exhibitor objectives of exhibition participation and exhibition choice attributes using revised importance-performance analysis. This research uses visitor level, organizer services and market attraction of hosting country, as explanatory variables affecting companies' trade show choices. It also utilizes sales and non-sales purposes of participants as variables of exhibitors' objectives. As a result of the empirical analysis and examination of prior research, this study presents some recommendations for exhibition organizers and governments of hosting countries. First, the exhibition organizer should consider the importance of the number of visitors. Thus, the organizer should focus on prior marketing activities to attract visitors. Second, the organizer should make a trade fair plan in compliance with participants' needs. Third, policy authorities should provide environment of free competition among players.

Measuring Recreational Benefits of Chilgap Reservoir Using TCM (TCM을 이용한 칠갑저수지의 레크리에이션 편익 분석)

  • Hong, Seungjee;Kim, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2016
  • The study attempts to estimate the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir using the on-site survey sample of 130 visitors. The individual travel cost method is used for measuring the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir and a zero-truncated negative binomial model is used to elicit the travel demand function. The price elasticities of visit demand are ranged from 0.29 to 0.39. Recreational benefits are ranged from 119 to 156 thousand won per visit and are ranged from 292 to 383 thousand won per annual. When the number of annual visitors to Chilgap reservoir is appled, then the recreational benefits are ranged from 2.7 to 3.6 billion won. This study could contribute to the advancement of post-construction evaluation in the public construction field similar to Chilgap reservoir.

Plan for Stand of S Motor in Motor Show (모터쇼를 위한 S자동차 전시부스 계획)

  • Suh, June-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Interior Design Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.65-66
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    • 2006
  • The motor show is the most popular show in domestic exhibitions. It provides many interesting events and exhibition programs from small parts of the car to luxury sedans. It should be spatially designed for not only display programs but also various other programs such as concerts or events. And it needs to approach strategic and complex plans for unique stand design because of a great number of visitors' safety and accomodation, and competition with other companies. S motor is the company of middle standing, producing the most luxurious sedans and SUVs. I had to find a display and space composition way to harmonize with luxurious sedans and outdoor vehicles in a booth. The booth had to be distinctive and unique inspite of relatively small and handicaped area compared with other companies' booths. So I designed two major plans; ceiling structure covered whole booth space and office space for staff. These plans could get completely majesty and unique design for booth, events and other programs. And the structure of booth was minimalized for visitors' safety and accomodation in great event time.

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Ecotourism Study on the Chunsuman Bay Birdwatching Festival (생태문화관광 축제연구 : 천수만 철새 축제 사례)

  • Roh Yong-Ho;Jeong Gang-Hoan;Yhang Wii-Joo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.259-264
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    • 2005
  • The purposes of this study were to investigate visitors' environmental attitudes of educational tourism, environmental preservation, and regional economic benefits satisfaction through the Chunsuman Bay Birdwatching Festival. The results of this study were as follows: First, the degree of educational satisfaction was high and this festival provided environmental preservation mind for visitors and local residents as well. The festival participants had a positive attitude toward migratory birds. Especially, the residents who had negative perceptions toward migratory birds due to physical harms of agricultural crops was positively changed after visiting this festival. So there should be prepared for more strategic approaches for residents' visiting and participating this birdwatching festival. Second, while the number of tourists was increased, it did not make a practical contribution to residents' income Particularly, farmers' satisfaction was low. So there should be more strategic programs to improve residents' economic rewards for sustainable development.

A Study on the Meaning and Strategy of Keyword Advertising Marketing

  • Park, Nam Goo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2010
  • At the initial stage of Internet advertising, banner advertising came into fashion. As the Internet developed into a central part of daily lives and the competition in the on-line advertising market was getting fierce, there was not enough space for banner advertising, which rushed to portal sites only. All these factors was responsible for an upsurge in advertising prices. Consequently, the high-cost and low-efficiency problems with banner advertising were raised, which led to an emergence of keyword advertising as a new type of Internet advertising to replace its predecessor. In the beginning of 2000s, when Internet advertising came to be activated, display advertisement including banner advertising dominated the Net. However, display advertising showed signs of gradual decline, and registered minus growth in the year 2009, whereas keyword advertising showed rapid growth and started to outdo display advertising as of the year 2005. Keyword advertising refers to the advertising technique that exposes relevant advertisements on the top of research sites when one searches for a keyword. Instead of exposing advertisements to unspecified individuals like banner advertising, keyword advertising, or targeted advertising technique, shows advertisements only when customers search for a desired keyword so that only highly prospective customers are given a chance to see them. In this context, it is also referred to as search advertising. It is regarded as more aggressive advertising with a high hit rate than previous advertising in that, instead of the seller discovering customers and running an advertisement for them like TV, radios or banner advertising, it exposes advertisements to visiting customers. Keyword advertising makes it possible for a company to seek publicity on line simply by making use of a single word and to achieve a maximum of efficiency at a minimum cost. The strong point of keyword advertising is that customers are allowed to directly contact the products in question through its more efficient advertising when compared to the advertisements of mass media such as TV and radio, etc. The weak point of keyword advertising is that a company should have its advertisement registered on each and every portal site and finds it hard to exercise substantial supervision over its advertisement, there being a possibility of its advertising expenses exceeding its profits. Keyword advertising severs as the most appropriate methods of advertising for the sales and publicity of small and medium enterprises which are in need of a maximum of advertising effect at a low advertising cost. At present, keyword advertising is divided into CPC advertising and CPM advertising. The former is known as the most efficient technique, which is also referred to as advertising based on the meter rate system; A company is supposed to pay for the number of clicks on a searched keyword which users have searched. This is representatively adopted by Overture, Google's Adwords, Naver's Clickchoice, and Daum's Clicks, etc. CPM advertising is dependent upon the flat rate payment system, making a company pay for its advertisement on the basis of the number of exposure, not on the basis of the number of clicks. This method fixes a price for advertisement on the basis of 1,000-time exposure, and is mainly adopted by Naver's Timechoice, Daum's Speciallink, and Nate's Speedup, etc, At present, the CPC method is most frequently adopted. The weak point of the CPC method is that advertising cost can rise through constant clicks from the same IP. If a company makes good use of strategies for maximizing the strong points of keyword advertising and complementing its weak points, it is highly likely to turn its visitors into prospective customers. Accordingly, an advertiser should make an analysis of customers' behavior and approach them in a variety of ways, trying hard to find out what they want. With this in mind, her or she has to put multiple keywords into use when running for ads. When he or she first runs an ad, he or she should first give priority to which keyword to select. The advertiser should consider how many individuals using a search engine will click the keyword in question and how much money he or she has to pay for the advertisement. As the popular keywords that the users of search engines are frequently using are expensive in terms of a unit cost per click, the advertisers without much money for advertising at the initial phrase should pay attention to detailed keywords suitable to their budget. Detailed keywords are also referred to as peripheral keywords or extension keywords, which can be called a combination of major keywords. Most keywords are in the form of texts. The biggest strong point of text-based advertising is that it looks like search results, causing little antipathy to it. But it fails to attract much attention because of the fact that most keyword advertising is in the form of texts. Image-embedded advertising is easy to notice due to images, but it is exposed on the lower part of a web page and regarded as an advertisement, which leads to a low click through rate. However, its strong point is that its prices are lower than those of text-based advertising. If a company owns a logo or a product that is easy enough for people to recognize, the company is well advised to make good use of image-embedded advertising so as to attract Internet users' attention. Advertisers should make an analysis of their logos and examine customers' responses based on the events of sites in question and the composition of products as a vehicle for monitoring their behavior in detail. Besides, keyword advertising allows them to analyze the advertising effects of exposed keywords through the analysis of logos. The logo analysis refers to a close analysis of the current situation of a site by making an analysis of information about visitors on the basis of the analysis of the number of visitors and page view, and that of cookie values. It is in the log files generated through each Web server that a user's IP, used pages, the time when he or she uses it, and cookie values are stored. The log files contain a huge amount of data. As it is almost impossible to make a direct analysis of these log files, one is supposed to make an analysis of them by using solutions for a log analysis. The generic information that can be extracted from tools for each logo analysis includes the number of viewing the total pages, the number of average page view per day, the number of basic page view, the number of page view per visit, the total number of hits, the number of average hits per day, the number of hits per visit, the number of visits, the number of average visits per day, the net number of visitors, average visitors per day, one-time visitors, visitors who have come more than twice, and average using hours, etc. These sites are deemed to be useful for utilizing data for the analysis of the situation and current status of rival companies as well as benchmarking. As keyword advertising exposes advertisements exclusively on search-result pages, competition among advertisers attempting to preoccupy popular keywords is very fierce. Some portal sites keep on giving priority to the existing advertisers, whereas others provide chances to purchase keywords in question to all the advertisers after the advertising contract is over. If an advertiser tries to rely on keywords sensitive to seasons and timeliness in case of sites providing priority to the established advertisers, he or she may as well make a purchase of a vacant place for advertising lest he or she should miss appropriate timing for advertising. However, Naver doesn't provide priority to the existing advertisers as far as all the keyword advertisements are concerned. In this case, one can preoccupy keywords if he or she enters into a contract after confirming the contract period for advertising. This study is designed to take a look at marketing for keyword advertising and to present effective strategies for keyword advertising marketing. At present, the Korean CPC advertising market is virtually monopolized by Overture. Its strong points are that Overture is based on the CPC charging model and that advertisements are registered on the top of the most representative portal sites in Korea. These advantages serve as the most appropriate medium for small and medium enterprises to use. However, the CPC method of Overture has its weak points, too. That is, the CPC method is not the only perfect advertising model among the search advertisements in the on-line market. So it is absolutely necessary that small and medium enterprises including independent shopping malls should complement the weaknesses of the CPC method and make good use of strategies for maximizing its strengths so as to increase their sales and to create a point of contact with customers.

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