• Title/Summary/Keyword: Nonlinear estimation

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Modeling Residual Chlorine and THMs in Water Distribution System (배급수계통에서 잔류염소 및 THMs 분포 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jae-Chan;Lee, Su-Won;Rho, Bang-Sik;Choi, Young-Jun;Choi, Jae-Ho;Kim, Hyo-Il;Park, Tae-Jun;Park, Chang-Min;Park, Hyeon;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.706-714
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    • 2007
  • This study suggested a method for prediction of residual chlorine and THMs in water distribution system by measurement of residual chlorine, THMs, and other parameters, estimation of chlorine decay coefficients and THM formation coefficients, and simulation of water qualities using pipe network analysis. Bulk decay coefficients of parallel first-order were obtained by bottle tests, and pipe wall decay coefficients of first-order were estimated through evaluation of 5 models, which showed the lowest values of 0.03 for MAE(mean absolute error) and 0.037 MAE in comparison with the observed in field. And bottle tests were conducted to model first-order reaction of THM formation by nonlinear least square regression and the resultant coefficients were compared with the observed in field. As a result, the coefficients of determination$(R^2)$ for the observed and the predicted values were 0.98 in September and 0.82 in November, and the formation of THMs was predicted by modeling.

A Study on Estimation of Individual Growth Curve Parameters and their Relationships with Meat Quality Traits of Crossbred between Korean Native Boars and Landrace Sows (재래돼지와 랜드레이스 교잡종의 개체별 성장곡선 추정 및 육질형질과의 상관관계 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Y.M.;Choi, B.H.;Kim, T.H.;Lee,, J.W.;Lee, J.E.;Oh, S.J.;Cheong, I.C.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.503-508
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to estimate the growth curve parameters of crossbreds between Korean native boars and Landrace sows and their relationships with meat qualities. The data used were weight-age data and carcass data from 131 males and 122 females raised at N.L.R.I in Korea. Growth curve parameters were estimated from nonlinear regression using Gompertz model individually. Average mature weight(A), average maturing rate(k), and average inflection point(u) showing maximum growth rate estimated were 179.54${\pm}$6.06kg, 0.3154${\pm}$0.0059, and 5.50${\pm}$0.11 months in females, and 179.84${\pm}$6.33kg, 0.3049${\pm}$0.0061, and 5.24${\pm}$0.13 months in males, respectively. For the growth curve parameters and derived statistics, the phenotypic correlations of maturing rate with gain rate at inflection, mature weight, and inflection point were - .30, - .77, and - .93 in male, and - .31, - .78 and - .94 in female, respectively. Matrure weight was positively correlated to the inflection point as + .89 in both male and female, indicating that late maturing pigs with lower k had longer maturing period with increasing gain rate and reached point of inflection later than early maturing pigs with higher k, and grew to larger mature weight. Backfat thickness and erode fat contents were correlated with mature weight positively in male and negatively in female, and correlated with gain rate at inflection point positively in both male and female, of which coefficients were as high as .42 and .50 in male, respectively.

An Evaluation of Progressive Collapse Resisting Capacity of RC Structure Using Static and Dynamic Analysis (정적 및 동적 해석을 이용한 철근콘크리트 건물의 연쇄붕괴 저항성능 평가)

  • Seo, Dae-Won;Kim, Hae-Jin;Shin, Sung-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.238-245
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    • 2010
  • Progressive collapse is defined as a collapse caused by sectional destruction of a structural member which links to other surrounding structures. Currently the design guidelines for the prevention of progressive collapse is not available in Korea. So, structural engineers have a difficulty in evaluating progressive collapse. In this study, the static and dynamic analysis to evaluate the methods and procedures are conducted using commercial analysis program for RC moment resisting frames. According to the study, DCR value of RC moment resisting frame system based on code in Korea is over 2 and it shows that it can't provide alternate load paths due to the progressive collapse. And additional reinforcement should be considered for the progressive collapse resistance. As a result of vertical deflection and DCR value of linear static analysis and linear dynamic analysis, the results of dynamic analysis were underestimated more than the result of static analysis. Thus, the dynamic coefficient value of 2 provides conservative estimation.

Estimation and Decomposition of Portfolio Value-at-Risk (포트폴리오위험의 추정과 분할방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Whan
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.139-169
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces the modified VaR which takes into account the asymmetry and fat-tails of financial asset distribution, and then compares its out-of-sample forecast performance with traditional VaR model such as historical simulation model and Riskmetrics. The empirical tests using stock indices of 6 countries showed that the modified VaR has the best forecast accuracy. At the test of independence, Riskmetrics and GARCH model showed best performances, but the independence was not rejected for the modified VaR. The Monte Carlo simulation using skew t distribution again proved the best forecast performance of the modified VaR. One of many advantages of the modified VaR is that it is appropriate for measuring VaR of the portfolio, because it can reflect not only the linear relationship but also the nonlinear relationship between individual assets of the portfolio through coskewness and cokurtosis. The empirical analysis about decomposing VaR of the portfolio of 6 stock indices confirmed that the component VaR is very useful for the re-allocation of component assets to achieve higher Sharpe ratio and the active risk management.

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Modeling Temperature-Dependent Development and Hatch of Overwintered Eggs of Pseudococcus comstodki (Homoptera:Pseudococcidae) (가루깍지벌레(Pseudococcus comstocki (Kuwana))월동알의 온도발육 및 부화시기예찰모형)

  • Jeon, Heung-Yong;Kim, Dong-Soon;Yiem, Myoung-Soon;Lee, Joon-Ho
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.119-125
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    • 1996
  • Temperature-dependent development study for overwintered eggs of Pseudococcus comstocki (Kuwana) wasconducted to develop a forecasting model for egg hatch date. Hatch times of overwintered eggs were comparedat five constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 27$^{\circ}$C) and different collection dates. A nonlinear, four-parameterdevelopmental model with high temperature inhibition accurately described (R2=0.9948) mean developmentalrates of all temperatures. Variation in developmental times was modeled(~~=0.972w9)it h a cumulative Weibullfunction. Least-squares linear regression (rate=O.O06358[Temp.]-0.07566)d escribed development in the linearregion (15-25$^{\circ}$C) of the development curve. The low development threshold temperature was estimated 11.9"Cand 154.14 degree-days were required for complete development. The linear degree-day model (thermal summation)and rate summation model (Wagner et al. 1985) were validated using field phenology data. In degreedaymodels, mean-minus-base method, sine wave method, and rectangle method were used in estimation of dailythermal units. Mean-minus-base method was 18 to 28d late, sine wave method was 11 to 14d late, rectanglemethod was 3 to 5d late, and rate summation model was 2 to 3d late in predicting 50% hatch of overwinteredeggs. hatch of overwintered eggs.

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A Bayesian GLM Model Based Regional Frequency Analysis Using Scaling Properties of Extreme Rainfalls (극치자료계열의 Scaling 특성과 Bayesian GLM Model을 이용한 지역빈도해석)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Byung-Suk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2017
  • Design rainfalls are one of the most important hydrologic data for river management, hydraulic structure design and risk analysis. The design rainfalls are first estimated by a point frequency analysis and the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is then constructed by a nonlinear regression to either interpolate or extrapolate the design rainfalls for other durations which are not used in the frequency analysis. It has been widely recognised that the more reliable approaches are required to better account for uncertainties associated with the model parameters under circumstances where limited hydrologic data are available for the watershed of interest. For these reasons, this study developed a hierarchical Bayesian based GLM (generalized linear model) for a regional frequency analysis in conjunction with a scaling function of the parameters in probability distribution. The proposed model provided a reliable estimation of a set of parameters for each individual station, as well as offered a regional estimate of the parameters, which allow us to have a regional IDF curve. Overall, we expected the proposed model can be used for different aspects of water resources planning at various stages and in addition for the ungaged basin.

A Study on Energy Saving Effect from Automatic Control of Air Flowrate and Estimation of Optimal DO Concentration in Oxic Reactor of Wastewater Treatment Plant (하수처리장의 포기조 최적 DO 농도 산정 및 공기송풍량 자동제어를 통한 에너지 절감 효과 도출)

  • Kim, Min Han;Ji, Seung Hee;Jang, Jung Hee
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2014
  • It is important to keep stable effluent water quality and minimize operation cost in biological wastewater treatment plant. However, the optimal operation is difficult because of the change of influent flow rate and concentrations, the nonlinear dynamics of microbiology growth rate and other environmental factors. Therefore, many wastewater treatment plants are operated for much more redundant oxygen or chemical dosing than the necessary. In this study, the optimal control scheme for dissolved oxygen (DO) is suggested to prevent over-aeration and the reduction of the electric cost in plant operation while maintaining the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration for the metabolism of microorganisms in oxic reactor. For optimal control, The oxygen uptake rate (OUR) is realtime measured for the identification of influent characterization and the identification of microorganisms' oxygen requirement in oxic reactor. Optimal DO seT-Point needed for the microorganism is suggested based on real time measurement of oxygen uptake of microorganism and the control of air blower. Therefore, both stable effluent quality and minimization of electric cost are satisfied with a suggested optimal setpoint decision system by providing the necessary oxygen supply requirement to the microorganisms coping with the variations of influent loading.

Neural Networks-Genetic Algorithm Model for Modeling of Nonlinear Evaporation and Evapotranspiration Time Series 1. Theory and Application of the Model (비선형 증발량 및 증발산량 시계열의 모형화를 위한 신경망-유전자 알고리즘 모형 1. 모형의 이론과 적용)

  • Kim, Sung-Won;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.1 s.174
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    • pp.73-88
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    • 2007
  • The goal of this research is to develop and apply the generalized regression neural networks model(GRNNM) embedding genetic algorithm(GA) for the estimation and calculation of the pan evaporation(PE), which is missed or ungaged and of the alfalfa reference evapotranspiration ($ET_r$), which is not measured in South Korea. Since the observed data of the alfalfa 37. using Iysimeter have not been measured for a long time in South Korea, the Penman-Monteith(PM) method is used to estimate the observed alfalfa $ET_r$. In this research, we develop the COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1) model for the calculation of the optimal PE and the alfalfa $ET_r$. The suggested COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1) model is evaluated through training, testing, and reproduction processes. The COMBINE-GRNNM-GA(Type-1) model can evaluate the suggested climatic variables and also construct the reliable data for the PE and the alfalfa $ET_r$. We think that the constructive data could be used as the reference data for irrigation and drainage networks system in South Korea.

Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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A Study on the Analysis of Monitoring Settlement Considering the History of the Groundwater Level in the Dredged Landfill Area Affected by Algae (조류의 영향을 받는 준설매립지역에서 지하수위 이력을 고려한 계측침하 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Ji-Gun;Son, Su-Won;Hong, Seok-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2021
  • If roads, bridges, buildings, etc. are built on the ground with soft clay or organic soil, there may be a lot of problems in geotechnical engineering such as settlement and stability due to the large settlement and lack of bearing capacity. In extreme cases, it may appear due to shear failure or collapse of the constructed structure, so a ground improvement method is indispensable to increase the strength of the ground and to suppress settlement. In this study, the settlement according to each groundwater level condition was analyzed using the measurement results for the groundwater level conditions, one of the important factors in predicting the settlement in dredged and reclaimed ground, and the groundwater level conditions applied to the settlement analysis were proposed by comparing it with settlement generated 5 years after construction. As a result of the analysis, it is judged that it is reasonable to apply the measured groundwater level during construction and the low water ordinary neap tide (L.W.O.N.T) during load application for the groundwater level in the settlement analysis. In addition, in the case of the dredged and reclaimed ground, it is estimated that the water pressure acting on the clay layer is nonlinear, as the result of the observations of the head of water at the observation points above and below the in-situ clay layer were different.