• Title/Summary/Keyword: Non-equilibrium model

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Economic Impact of the Tariff Reform : A General Equilibrium Approach (관세율(關稅率) 조정(調整) 경제적(經濟的) 효과분석(效果分析) : 일반균형적(一般均衡的) 접근(接近))

  • Lee, Won-yong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.69-91
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    • 1990
  • A major change in tariff rates was made in January 1989 in Korea. The benchmark tariff rate, which applies to about two thirds of all commodity items, was lowered to 15 percent from 20 percent. In addition, the variation in tariff rates among different types of commodities was reduced. This paper examines the economic impact of the tariff reform using a multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Korean economy which was introduced by Lee and Chang(1988), and by Lee(1988). More specifically, this paper attempts to find the changes in imports, exports, domestic production, consumption, prices, and employment in 31 different sectors of the economy induced by the reform in tariff rates. The policy simulations are made according to three different methods. First, tariff changes in industries are calculated strictly according to the change in legal tariff rates, which tend to over-estimate the size of the tariff reduction given the tariff-drawback system and tariff exemption applied to various import items. Second, tariff changes in industries are obtained by dividing the estimated tariff revenues of each industry by the estimated imports for that industry, which are often called actual tariff rates. According to the first method, the import-weighted average tariff rate is lowered from 15.2% to 10.2%, while the second method changes the average tariff rate from 6.2% to 4.2%. In the third method, the tariff-drawback system is internalized in the model. This paper reports the results of the policy simulation according to all three methods, comparing them with one another. It is argued that the second method yields the most realistic estimate of the changes in macro-economic variables, while the third method is useful in delineating the differences in impact across industries. The findings, according to the second method, show that the tariff reform induces more imports in most sectors. Garments, leather products, and wood products are those industries in which imports increase by more than 5 percent. On the other hand, imports in agricultural, mining and service sectors are least affected. Domestic production increases in all sectors except the following: leather products, non-metalic products, chemicals, paper and paper products, and wood-product industries. The increase in production and employment is largest in export industries, followed by service industries. An impact on macroeconomic variables is also simulated. The tariff reform increases nominal GNP by 0.26 percent, lowers the consumer price index by 0.49 percent, increases employment by 0.24 percent, and worsens the trade balance by 480 million US dollars, through a rise in exports of 540 million US dollars and a rise in imports of 1.02 billion US dollars.

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The Price Discovery ana Volatility Spillover of Won/Dollar Futures (통화선물의 가격예시 기능과 변동성 전이효과)

  • Kim, Seok-Chin;Do, Young-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2006
  • This study examines whether won/dollar futures have price discovery function and volatility spillover effect or not, using intraday won/dollar futures prices, volumes, and spot rates for the interval from March 2, 2005 through May 30, 2005. Futures prices and spot rates are non-stationary, but there is the cointegration relationship between two time series. Futures returns, spot returns, and volumes are stationary. Asymmetric effects on volatility in futures returns and spot returns does not exist. Analytical results of mean equations of the BGARCH-EC (bivariate GARCH-error correction) model show that the increase of futures returns raise spot returns after 5 minutes, which implies that futures returns lead spot returns and won/dollar futures have price discovery function. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the two returns could help forecast spot returns. Analytical results of variance equations indicate that short-run innovations in the futures market positively affect the conditional variances of spot returns, that is, there is the volatility spillover effect in the won/dollar futures market. A dummy variable of volumes does not have an effect on two returns but influences significantly on two conditional variances.

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A Study on the Failure Cause of Large Scale Rock Slope in Limestone Quarries (석회석 광산에서 발생한 대규모 암반사면의 붕괴원인 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Eun;Kim, Hak-Sung;Jang, Yoon-Ho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.255-274
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    • 2014
  • The target of this study is large scale rock slope collapsed by around 7 pm on August, 2012, which is located at ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ limestone quarries of Gangneung city, Gangwondo. The slope prior to the collapse is formed as the height of about 200 m and the average inclination of $45^{\circ}$. The estimated amount of the collapse is about $1,500,000m^3$ with respect to the slope after the collapse. Geotechnical and field investigations such as boring, geophysical prospecting, surface geological survey, geological lineaments, borehole imaging, metric 3D imaging, experimental and field test, mining work by year, and daily rainfall were performed to find the cause of rock slope failure. Various analyzes using slope mass rating, stereonet projection, limit equilibrium method, continuum and non-continuum model were conducted to check of the stability of the slope. It is expected that the cause of slope failure from the results of various analysis and survey is due to the combined factors such as topography, rainfall, rock type and quality, discontinuities, geo-structural characteristics as the limestone cavity and fault zones, but the failure of slope in case of the analysis without the limestone cavity is not occurred. Safe factor of 0.66 was obtained from continuum analysis of the slope considering the limestone cavity, so the ultimate causes of slope failure is considered to be due to the influence of limestone cavity developed along fault zone.

The SBAG assemblage in the Dueumri Formation mear the Chunyang granite : Algebraic analysis (춘양 화강암체 주변 두음리층에 산출하는 십자석-흑운모-홍주석-석류석 광물조합: 대수학적 분석)

  • 양판석;조문섭
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 1995
  • Staurolite-biotite-andalusite-garnet (SBAG) assemblage and its sub-assemblages (SBA and SBG) commonly occur in the Dueumri Formation near the Chunyang granite, belonging to andalusite and sillimanite zones. The occurrence of the SBAG mineral assemblage is unusual because it is univariant in the $K_2O-FeO-MgO-Al_2O_3-SiO_2-H_2O$ (KFMASH) model system. We used projection and singular value decomposition (SVD) methods to investigate the equilibrium relationship between SBAG and its sub-assemblage. The SVD modelling of single specimen containing the SBAG assemblage suggests no reaction relationship with respect to mass-balance. Thus, the SBAG assemblages are stabilized by non-KFMASH component. On the other hand, the AFM-Mn projection suggests a reaction relationship between SBAG and its sub-assemblage because they intersect each other in this composition space. The SVD modelling, however, suggests no reaction relationship between these assemblages. Thus, the SBAG assemblages are likely to be stabilized by the variation in bulk-rock composition and/or 1.1~2,. The stable occurrence of staurolite in the sillimanite zone is compatible with pressure estimates from the garnet-plagioclase-biotite-muscovite geobarometer.

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Strategic Antitrust Policy Promoting Mergers to Enhance Domestic Competitiveness (기업결합규제(企業結合規制)와 국제경쟁력(國際競爭力))

  • Seong, So-mi
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.153-172
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    • 1990
  • The present paper investigates the potential value of strategic antitrust policy in an oligopolistic international market. The market is characterized by a non-cooperative Cournot-Nash equilibrium and by asymmetry in costs among firms in the world market. The model is useful for two reasons. First, it is important in the context of policy-making to examine the conditions under which it may be beneficial to relax antitrust law to enhance competitiveness. Second, the explicit derivation of the level of cost-saving required for a gain in total domestic surplus provides an empirical rule for excluding industries that do not satisfy the requirements for a socially beneficial antitrust exemption. Results of the analysis include a criterion that tells how the cost-saving and concentration effects of a merger offset each other. The criterion is derived from fairly general assumptions on demand functions and is simple enough to be applied as a part of the merger guidelines. Another interesting policy implication of our analysis is that promoting mergers would not be a beneficial strategy in a net importing industry where cost-saving opportunities are thin. Cost-saving domestic mergers are more likely to increase national welfare in exporting industries. The best candidate industries for application of strategic antitrust policy are those with the following characteristics: (i) a large potential for efficiency enhancement; (ii) high market concentration at the world but not the domestic level; (iii) a high ratio of exports to imports. Recently, many policymakers and economists in Korea have also come to believe that the appropriate antitrust policy in an era of increased foreign competition may actually be to encourage rather than to prohibit domestic mergers. The Industry Development Act of 1986 and the proposed bill for Mergers and Conversions in the Financial Industry of 1990 reflect this changing perspective on antitrust policy. Antitrust laws may burden domestic firms in the sense that they have a more constrained strategy set. Expenditures to avoid antitrust attacks could also increase costs for domestic firms. But there is no clear evidence that the impact of antitrust policy is significant enough to harm the competitiveness of domestic firms. As a matter of fact, it is necessary for domestic financial institutions to become large in scale in this era of globalization. However, the absence of empirical evidence for efficiency enhancement from mergers suggests caution in the relaxation of antitrust standards.

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Development of the Monte Carlo Simulation Radiation Dose Assessment Procedure for NORM added Consumer Adhere·Non-Adhere Product based on ICRP 103 (ICRP 103 권고기반의 밀착형·비밀착형 가공제품 사용으로 인한 몬테칼로 전산모사 피폭선량 평가체계 개발)

  • Go, Ho-Jung;Noh, Siwan;Lee, Jae-Ho;Yeom, Yeon-Soo;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.124-131
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    • 2015
  • Radiation exposure to humans can be caused by the gamma rays emitted from natural radioactive elements(such as uranium, thorium and potassium and any of their decay products) of Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials(NORM) or Technologically Enhanced Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials(TENORM) added consumer products. In this study, assume that activity of radioactive elements is $^{238}U$, $^{235}U$, $^{232}Th$ $1Bq{\cdot}g^{-1}$, $^{40}K$ $10Bq{\cdot}g^{-1}$ and the gamma rays emitted from these natural radioactive elements radioactive equilibrium state. In this study, reflected End-User circumstances and evaluated annual exposure dose for products based on ICRP reference voxel phantoms and ICRP Recommendation 103 using the Monte Carlo Method. The consumer products classified according to the adhere to the skin(bracelet, necklace, belt-wrist, belt-ankle, belt-knee, moxa stone) or not(gypsum board, anion wallpaper, anion paint), and Geometric Modeling was reflected in Republic of Korea "Residential Living Trend-distributions and Design Guidelines For Common Types of Household.", was designed the Room model($3m{\times}4m{\times}2.8m$, a closed room, conservatively) and the ICRP reference phantom's 3D segmentation and modeling. The end-user's usage time assume that "Development and Application of Korean Exposure Factors." or conservatively 24 hours; in case of unknown. In this study, the results of the effective dose were 0.00003 ~ 0.47636 mSv per year and were confirmed the meaning of necessary for geometric modeling to ICRP reference phantoms through the equivalent dose rate of belt products.