• Title/Summary/Keyword: Neural network decision maker

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A Development of Cyber Credit Decision Support System for Banking Facilities Using Fuzzy-expert Network (퍼지전문가회로망을 이용한 금융기관의 사이버 기업여신결정 지원시스템의 개발)

  • Kwon Hyuk-Dae
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2005
  • This paper is to develop the prototype of a decision making for loan granting system at banks and to evaluate the effectiveness of it. The prototype is called at FENET-LG in this paper. The decision to grant a loan is an unstructured and vagueness task because it is required a tremendous amount of data and many complex relationships among them. Evaluating these many data and relationships is a difficult task even for most experienced decision maker of bank. Therefore, where complex judgement is required, the decision maker of bank may benefit from the use of fuzzy expert network to support the evaluation of ability to pay back. Given the characteristics of decision maker of banking facilities judgement task about ability to pay back, the prototype system named FENET-LG is constructed by integration of fuzzy expert system and neural network. The FENET-LG takes advantage of both the deductive approach of fuzzy expert system and the inductive approach of a neural network to provide a decision aid designed to support and facilitate the process of conducting a judgement of ability to pay back.

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Neural Network-based Decision Class Analysis with Incomplete Information

  • Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Lee, Jae-Kwang;Park, Kyung-Sam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 1999
  • Decision class analysis (DCA) is viewed as a classification problem where a set of input data (situation-specific knowledge) and output data (a topological leveled influence diagram (ID)) is given. Situation-specific knowledge is usually given from a decision maker (DM) with the help of domain expert(s). But it is not easy for the DM to know the situation-specific knowledge of decision problem exactly. This paper presents a methodology fur sensitivity analysis of DCA under incomplete information. The purpose of sensitivity analysis in DCA is to identify the effects of incomplete situation-specific frames whose uncertainty affects the importance of each variable in the resulting model. For such a purpose, our suggested methodology consists of two procedures: generative procedure and adaptive procedure. An interactive procedure is also suggested based the sensitivity analysis to build a well-formed ID. These procedures are formally explained and illustrated with a raw material purchasing problem.

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Neural Network-based Decision Class Analysis with Incomplete Information

  • 김재경;이재광;박경삼
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 1999.03a
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 1999
  • Decision class analysis (DCA) is viewed as a classification problem where a set of input data (situation-specific knowledge) and output data(a topological leveled influence diagram (ID)) is given. Situation-specific knowledge is usually given from a decision maker (DM) with the help of domain expert(s). But it is not easy for the DM to know the situation-specific knowledge of decision problem exactly. This paper presents a methodology for sensitivity analysis of DCA under incomplete information. The purpose of sensitivity analysis in DCA is to identify the effects of incomplete situation-specific frames whose uncertainty affects the importance of each variable in the resulting model. For such a purpose, our suggested methodology consists of two procedures: generative procedure and adaptive procedure. An interactive procedure is also suggested based the sensitivity analysis to build a well-formed ID. These procedures are formally explained and illustrated with a raw material purchasing problem.

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A Study on Manufacture of Aluminum Automotive Piston by Thixoforging (반용융 단조 공정에 의한 자동차용 알루미늄 피스톤 제조에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jung-Il;Kim, Jae-Hun;Park, Joon-Hong;Kim, Young-Ho;Choi, Jae-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.23 no.1 s.178
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    • pp.136-144
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    • 2006
  • Aluminum engine piston is manufactured by thixoforging according to forming variables. It is very important to find effects of forming variables on final products in thixoferging. In order to find the effects, however, many researchers and industrial technicians have depended upon too many types of experiments. In this study, the process parameters which have influences on thixofurging process of aluminum automotive engine piston are found by a statistical method and the correlation equations between the process parameters and quality of product are approximated through the surface response analysis. Forming variables such as initial solid fraction, die temperature, and compression holding time are considered fur manufacturing aluminum engine piston by thixofurging. Hardness and microstructure are inspected so that optimal forming condition is found by the statistical approach.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.