• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.54-58
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• 2014

This study deals with the accidents of circular intersections in Korea. The goal is to develop the accident models for 94 circular intersections. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to collecting the data of geometric structure and accidents, and comparatively analyzing such the models as Poisson and NB regression and multiple regression model using SPSS 17.0 and LIMDEP 3.0. The main results are as follows. First, the negative binomial model among various models was analyzed to be the most appropriate. Second, 3 independent variables was adopted in the model, and these variables was analyzed to have a positive relation to the accident rate. Finally, the reduced width of circulatory roadway, removal of the parking lot within circulatory roadway and appropriate levels of approach lane were required to improve the safety of circular intersection.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.845-852
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• 2010

The outcomes of counts commonly occur in the area of disease mapping for mortality rates or disease rates. A Poisson distribution is usually assumed as a model of disease rates in conjunction with a gamma prior. The small area typically refers to a small geographical area or demographic group for which very little information is available from the sample surveys. Under this situation the model-based estimation is very popular, in which the auxiliary variables from various administrative sources are used. The empirical Bayes estimator under Poissongamma model has been considered with its accuracy measures. An accuracy measure using a bootstrap samples adjust the underestimation incurred by the posterior variance as an estimator of true mean squared error. We explain the suggested method through a practical dataset of hitters in baseball games. We also perform a Monte Carlo study to compare the accuracy measures of mean squared error.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.85-93
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• 2015

Previous studies have estimated crash prediction models with the fixed effect model which assumes the fixed value of coefficients without considering characteristics of each intersections. However the fixed effect model would estimate under estimation of the standard error resulted in over estimation of t-value. In order to overcome these shortcomings, the random effect model can be used with considering heterogeneity of AADT, geometric information and unobserved factors. In this study, data collections from 89 intersections in Daejeon and estimates of crash prediction models were conducted using the random and fixed effect negative binomial regression model for comparison and analysis of two models. As a result of model estimates, AADT, speed limits, number of lanes, exclusive right turn pockets and front traffic signal were found to be significant. For comparing statistical significance of two models, the random effect model could be better statistical significance with -1537.802 of log-likelihood at convergence comparing with -1691.327 for the fixed effect model. Also likelihood ration value was computed as 0.279 for the random effect model and 0.207 for the fixed effect model. This mean that the random effect model can be improved for statistical significance of models comparing with the fixed effect model.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.62-77
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• 2022

Seeded marketing campaign (SMC) is a newly created type of marketing activities with the widespread use of social media. Previous research has examined to find out the optimal seeding strategy that yields the best outcome from the campaign. This research explores the relationships between the characteristics of the seeded influencer and user engagement. The data consists of information from 1062 seeded Instagram posts posted in September 2020 in Korea and 778 seeded influencers who posted those contents. Analyzed by negative binomial regression, our quadratic model suggests that the relationship between user engagement and the number of followers of the seeded influencer draws an inverted U-shape, indicating influencers with greater number of followers may not always be the best choice for the marketers. Moreover, this research shows that the negative marginal impact coming from the huge number of followers can be attenuated when the influencer is an expert of the seeded product.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.371-385
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• 1995

The yield of semiconductor chips is dependent not only on the average defect density but also on the distribution of defects over a wafer. The distribution of defects leads to consider a cluster index. This paper briefly reviews the existing yield prediction models ad proposes a new cluster index, which utilizes the information about the defect location on a wafer in terms of the coefficient of variation. An extensive simulation is performed under a variety of defect distributions and a yield prediction model is derived through the regression analysis to relate the yield with the proposed cluster index and the average number of defects per chip. The performance of the proposed simulation-based yield prediction model is compared with that of the well-known negative binomial model.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.1-19
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• 2023

Bikes have recently emerged as an alternative to carbon neutrality. To understand the demand for public bikes, we endeavored to estimate travel frequency of public bike by considering the intermediate stops. Using the GPS trajectory data of 'Ttareungyi', a public bike service in Seoul, we identified a stay point and estimated travel frequency reflecting population, land use, and physical characteristics. Application of map matching and a stay point detection algorithm revealed that stay point appeared in about 12.1% of the total trips. Compared to a trip without stay point, the trip with stay point has a longer average travel distance and travel time and a higher occurrence rate during off-peak hours. According to visualization analysis, the stay points are mainly found in parks, leisure facilities, and business facilities. To consider the stay point, the unit of analysis was set as a hexagonal grid rather than the existing rental station base. Travel frequency considering the stay point were analyzed using the Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) model. Results of our analysis revealed that the travel frequency were higher in bike infrastructure where the safety of bike users was secured, such as 'Bikepath' and 'Bike and pedestrian path'. Also, public bikes play a role as first & last mile means of access to public transportation. The measure of travel frequency was also observed to increase in life and employment centers. Considering the results of this analysis, securing safety facilities and space for users should be given priority when planning any additional expansion of bike infrastructure. Moreover, there is a necessity to establish a plan to supply bike infrastructure facilities linked to public transportation, especially the subway.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.123-135
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• 1999

The rapid increase of Passenger cars which is caused by the discomfort of Public transit and the Preference of automobiles is the major factor of increasing traffic congestions in Seoul With the point that leading the automobilists to the Public transit can be the most important Policy to ease these traffic congestions, this study focuses on the behavioral aspects of company employees and university students and investigates factors influencing bus ridership. To be brief, by estimating bus ridership through count models, this study investigates factors which influence bus ridership and elicits Political suggestions which lead automobilists to Public transit. The Purpose in this study is the application of appropriate count data model. The count data models have been widely applied to the economic area from the middle of the 1980s and to transportation aspect mainly in the foreign countries from the latter half of the 1980s. Even though a few studies in this country employed count data model to count data. all of them were Poisson regression models without suitable tests for the importance of the model specification. In the end, as the result of statistical test, negative binomial regression model which is suitable for overdispersed data was found to be appropriate for the data of weekly bus ridership. To emphasize the importance of model specification, both of poisson regression model and negative binomial regression model were estimated and the results were compared.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.369-379
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• 2014

The Statistical regression model has been used to construct crash prediction models, despite its limitations in assuming data distribution and functional form. In response to the limitations associated with the statistical regression models, a few studies based on non-parametric methods such as neural networks have been proposed to develop crash prediction models. However, these models have a major limitation in that they work as black boxes, and therefore cannot be directly used to identify the relationships between crash frequency and crash factors. A genetic programming model can find a solution to a problem without any specified assumptions and remove the black box effect. Hence, this paper investigates the application of the genetic programming technique to develope the crash prediction model. The data collected from the Gyeongbu expressway during the past three years (2010-2012), were separated into straight and curve sections. The random forest technique was applied to select the important variables that affect crash occurrence. The genetic programming model was developed based on the variables that were selected by the random forest. To test the goodness of fit of the genetic programming model, the RMSE of each model was compared to that of the negative binomial regression model. The test results indicate that the goodness of fit of the genetic programming models is superior to that of the negative binomial models.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.152-161
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• 2013

This study attempted to test the causal effect of structural characteristics of metropolitan neighborhoods on crime, based on the ecological model of crime explanation. To this end, a Negative Binomial Regression analysis was performed for Seoul's 424 Dong Districts. Results showed that the incidence of homicide increases as much as the scales of economic disadvantage, family disruption, and commercial land use go worse. It suggested that family integrity is one of the most strong and consistent factors that could deter crime in neighborhood's contexts. Economic disadvantage and commercial land use were also critical targets as crime-generating factors. Reasoning with the results of past studies implied that neighborhood-specific approaches need to be developed for effective crime prevention. Although a few limitations could raise a caveat against such interpretation of the results, the value of this research would not be simply denied as the first attempt to utilize all Dong districts of Seoul. It is expected that this study contributes to activating Dong level research and developing effective crime control policy.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.49-59
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• 2017

In this study, We analyzed the characteristics of carsharing use and revealed the environmental factors influencing carsharing use using the records of carsharing had been operated in Incheon during 2016. The records show a higher ratio of male users, a big portion of 20s and 30s, and ascending trends in the use of elderly people and short distances compared to the past. We analyzed the relationship between carsharing use and neighborhood environmental factors using the negative binomial regression model. It was found that carsharing was more active in areas where have many public transportation users and higher portion of residential buildings. Therefore, it was concluded that these areas can be suitable candidates for placing new carsharing rental sites to expect more active carsharing use.