• Title/Summary/Keyword: Negative Binomial

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Model for Predicting Accidents at a Unsignailzed Intersections in a Community Road (생활도로내 비신호교차로 사고예측 모형 개발)

  • Chang, Iljoon;Kim, Jang Wook;Lee, Hyeong Rok;Lee, Soo Beom
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.3D
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    • pp.343-353
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    • 2011
  • The unsignalized intersections in a community road in the city of Seoul have 3,753 traffic accidents(9%) of total 41,702 cases in 2008, not high in the occurrence rate of traffic accidents, but seem to have a quite high potential of accidents due to the unreasonable and insufficient operation of systems and facilities in the part of traffic foundations. In particular, the un-signalized intersections in a community road have an insufficient measure for safety as compared to the crossroads with signals, and there are few analysis of traffic accidents and domestic researches on the model of affecting factors. Our country also has no concept of passing priority in operating a crossroad without signals, differently from foreign countries, so the researches and safety measures for improving the safety of a crossroad without signals in a community road are urgent. Therefore, This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions, and traffic environment conditions on unsignalized intersection, to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an unsignalized intersection using the correlation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model for an unsignalized intersection.

An Empirical Study of Relationship between Information Security Investment and Information Security Incidents : A Focus on Information Security Training, Awareness and Education Service Sector (정보보안 투자가 침해사고에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석 : 정보보안 교육 서비스 투자를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hansol;Chai, Sangmi
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.269-281
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    • 2018
  • Many organizations are threatened by numerous information security attacks which are resulting in information security incidents. To prevent information security incidents, organizations invest on various information security measures like information security products, monitoring services and security training and educations. However they do not have enough knowledge about measurable utilities of information security investments. Since there is little studies empirically examining the effect of information security investments, this research aims to find out utilities of information security investment. We especially focuse on information security service investments. This study examined the data from the survey on information security for business sector which was conducted by Korean information & security agency. We utilized negative binomial regression model, which is a suitable model for over-dispersed count data. We found out that an investment on information security education and vulnerability testing have direct impact on reducing information security incidents. This research academically contributed to shed light on the utility of information security investments on reducing information security incidents. This research practically contributed to providing information security investment guideline for organizations which want to reduce information security incidents efficiently.

Development of Determination Criteria Installing Crash Cushion on Freeway Off-Ramp (고속도로 진출램프 부근의 충격흡수시설 설치여부 판단기준 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 하태준;박제진;오재철
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2002
  • Crash Cushion is a kind of safety facilities on roadside which acts the role of absorbing impact energy when vehicles are driven out of normal route such as Gore area of freeway off ramp. Criteria for severity index considering accident occurrence possibility are needed to have strong effect on installing the facilities. However, present criteria for establishing crash cushion design do not include such processes. Therefore, the paper presents two kinds of study to develop criteria for severity index. First of all, development of accident forecasting model on freeway off ramp is presented. The module is a relationship between accidents and road environment by negative binomial distribution (NB) which is called to reflect very well quality of accidents at Gore of crash cushion installed freeway Secondly, freeway exiting behavior model is developed because the human factor is the most important one. However, many literatures have shown between road environment and accidents which are more quantitative than human factor. The study supposed advanced process steps on actual freeway and analysed correlation between variables and accidents. The criteria for severity index is presented to determine whether to install or not by benefit cost analysis for each module. The standard for severity index will help to determine whether to install the crash cushion or not and to estimate severity for freeway and off ramp.

Safety Impacts of Red Light Enforcement on Signalized Intersections (교차로 신호위반 단속카메라 설치가 차량사고에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Lee, Yong Doo;Do, Myung Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2012
  • The frequency and severity of traffic accidents related to signalized intersections in urban areas have been more serious than those in both arterial segments and crosswalks. Especially, traffic accidents involved with injuries and fatalities have caused by traffic signal violations within intersections. Therefore, many countries including Korea have installed the red light enforcement camera (RLE) to reduce traffic accidents associated with the traffic signal violation. Meanwhile, many methodologies have been studied in terms of safety impacts estimation of red light enforcement, which, however, cannot be easy to conduct. In this study, safety impacts was estimated for intersections of Chicago downtown area using SPF models and EB approach. As a result, for all crash types and target traffic accident types such as "angle", "rear end", "sideswipe in the same and other directions", "turn", and "head on", fatal crashes were reduced by 26% and 38%. However, RLE may increase property-demage-only-crashes by 3.23% and 1.16%, respectively.

Analysis of Elderly Drivers' Accident Models Considering Operations and Physical Characteristics (고령운전자 운전 및 신체특성을 반영한 교통사고 분석 연구)

  • Lim, Sam Jin;Park, Jun Tae;Kim, Young Il;Kim, Tae Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2012
  • The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.

Development and Exploration of Safety Performance Functions Using Multiple Modeling Techniques : Trumpet Ramps (다양한 통계 기법을 활용한 안전성능함수 개발 및 비교 연구 : 트럼펫형 램프를 중심으로)

  • Yang, Samgyu;Park, Juneyoung;Kwon, Kyeongjoo;Lee, Hyunsuk
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2021
  • In recent times, several studies have been conducted focusing on crashes occurring on the main segment of the highway. However, there is a dearth of research dealing with traffic safety relating to other highway facilities, especially ramp areas. According to the Korea Expressway Corporation's Expressway Information Service, 6,717 crashes have occurred on ramps in the five years from 2015~2019, which accounts for about 15% of all highway accidents. In this study, the simple and full safety performance functions (SPFs) were evaluated and explored using different statistical distributions (i.e., Poisson Gamma (PG) and Poisson Inverse Gaussian (PIG)) and techniques (i.e., fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE)) to provide more accurate crash prediction models for highway ramp sections. Data on the geometric characteristics of traffic and roadways were collected from various systems and with extensive efforts using a street-view application. The results showed that the PIG models present more accurate crash predictions in general. The results also indicated that the RE models performed better than FE models for simple and full SPFs. The findings from this study offer transportation practitioners using the Korea Expressway Corporation's Expressway a dependable reference to enhance and understand traffic safety in ramp areas based on accurate crash prediction models and empirical evidence.

Macro Factors Affecting Corporate Venture Capital Investments: Effects of Industrial Boom, Exogenous Crisis, Economic Growth, Competition Intensity (기업벤처캐피탈 투자에 미치는 거시적 요인의 영향: 산업 호황, 외생적 위기, 경제 성장, 경쟁 강도를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Doyoon;Shin, Dongyoub
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 2021
  • This paper inquires the macro-economic factors that may affect the corporate venture capital (CVC) from an industrial organization theory perspective. Unlike existing studies focusing CVC investments related to parent corporates' strategic intention, we identified CVC firm as an independent financial investor affected by macro environment and industrial structure. Specifically, we empirically investigate whether and how industry's boom, exogenous crisis, economic growth, and competition intensity affect the CVC investment for a data set of investment in the U.S. based corporate venture capital industry, 1996-2017. The empirical data analyzed in the study contained a total of 84 U.S. based CVC firms and their 2,306 investments from 1996 until 2017. After conducting a time-series negative binomial analysis, our empirical analyses suggest that the CVC investments are affected negatively by exogenous crisis and competition intensity, and positively by industrial boom and economic growth. we found the significance and direction of our independent variables strongly supported all of our four hypotheses in a highly robust manner. The results of this study are expected to contribute the literatures of corporate venture capital and venture investment by illustrating which macro-economic and industrial structure factors affect CVC investment decision to adapt to dynamic environmental change beside strategic intention of CVC firm's parent corporates.

Frailty and Health Care Utilization among Community-dwelling Older Adults (노쇠와 의료 이용의 관련성: 일부 지역사회 거주 노인들을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Youn;Bae, Jung-Eun;Song, Eunsol;Kim, Namsoon
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.837-851
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to investigate the relationship between frailty and health care utilization in a cross-sectional design of a population-based sample of community-dwelling older adults. We used the data of 516 participants who dwell in Daejon, aged between 65 and 84 years old. Using K-frailty index, frailty status were measured and categorized as three groups: robust, prefrail, and frail. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine if frailty affects emergency department(ED) visit or hospitalization. In addition, negative binomial regression was used to examine the association between outpatient visits and frailty. Our results showed that the frail elderly increased the ED visit and the number of outpatient visit significantly after controlling for demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, the number of chronic diseases, and self-rated health status. Considering that frailty is an important independent factor affecting health care utilization, more attention is required to prevent the frailty in our health care system.

The Effect of Settlement Inclusivity on Older People's Mental Health (정주환경 포용성이 고령층의 정신건강에 미치는 효과)

  • Lee, Sae Rom;Park, In Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.3-23
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to conceptualize the settlement inclusivity for overcoming social exclusion and the decline in quality of life of older people and to examine its effects on their mental health. The concept of the settlement inclusivity for older people focuses on the immediate environment around the place where they live. We proposed two domains for the conceptual framework; social domain that provides opportunities for community cohesion; spatial domain that provides security of residential area and access to basic services within walking distance. The social domain was represented by participation and interdependence, while the spatial domain by security and accessibility in the settlement inclusivity. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was constructed with 2017 National Survey of Older Koreans data to analyze the factors influencing depressive symptoms of older adults. The empirical results demonstrate that increased level of neighborhood network and social participation is associated with a decrease in the number of depressive symptoms. In addition, higher satisfaction in neighborhood environment and good accessibility to public transport/stores are associated with fewer depressive symptoms. Finally, housing condition and home ownership have a moderating effect on the relationship between social network/participation and depressive symptoms level, whereas they have no direct effects on depressive symptoms. This study demonstrates multi-dimensionally and mutually significant associations between settlement inclusivity and depressive symptoms for older people providing implications for urban planning and policies to improve mental well-being of older population.

Association of Korean Medicine Pattern Identifications and Liver Blood Markers with the Severity of Cognitive Impairment in an Elderly Population (경도인지장애와 경도치매 단계에서의 한의 변증 및 간 혈액지표 연관성 탐색 연구)

  • Kahye Kim;Jiyun Cha;Seul Gee Kim;Hyung-Won Kang;Yeoung-Su Lyu;In Chul Jung;Jaeuk U. Ki
    • Journal of Oriental Neuropsychiatry
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: This study aimed to comprehend the characteristics of Korean medicine patterns in relation to varying degrees of cognitive impairment in an elderly population. Methods: The dataset included 127 elderly individuals with cognitive impairment obtained from three Korean medicine hospitals between 2018 and 2021. The participants were categorized into two groups based on Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) scores: those with questionable impairment (QI) and those with very mild dementia (VMD). A diagnostic framework for Korean medicine patterns encompassing Qi deficiency, Yin deficiency, Phlegm dampness, and Heat-fire was employed. Liver blood markers, including aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and the AST/ALT ratio, were also analyzed. Results: The scores of the cognitive assessment tools (MoCA-K, MMSE-DS, and K-IADL) of the QI group significantly differed from those of the VMD group. CDR-SB exhibited a positive correlation with the scores of each pattern of Qi deficiency, Yin deficiency, Phlegm dampness, and Heat-fire, whereas ALT and AST values displayed negative correlations. Binomial logistic analysis, controlling for potential confounders, such as age, education years, body mass index, the presence of chronic disease, and the presence of medication, verified that the VMD group showed higher pattern scores and lower ALT and AST values than the QI group. Conclusions: Increases in pattern scores along with decreased AST and ALT levels might be indicative of more severe cognitive impairment.