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Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

THE EFFECT OF DUST PARTICLES ON ION ACOUSTIC SOLITARY WAVES IN A DUSTY PLASMA

  • Choi, Cheong-Rim;Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Yong-Gi
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.201-208
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    • 2004
  • In this paper we have examined the effect of dust charge density on nonlinear ion acoustic solitary wave which propagates obliquely with respect to the external magnetic field in a dusty plasma. For the dusty charge density below a critical value, the Sagdeev potential $\Psi1(n)$ has a singular point in the region n < 1, where n is the ion number density divided by its equilibrium number density. If there exists a dust charge density over the critical value, the Sagdeev potential becomes a finite function in the region n < 1, which means that there may exist the rarefactive ion acoustic solitary wave. By expanding the Sagdeev potential in the small amplitude limit up to on4 near n=1, we find the solution of ion acoustic solitary wave. Therefore we suggest that the dust charge density plays an important role in generating the rarefactive solitary wave.

A Sampling Strategy for Estimating Infection Rate in Vector Mosquitoes of Mosquito-borne Bovine Viral Diseases (소 모기매개 바이러스성 질병의 Vector 감염률 추정을 위한 표본추출 전략)

  • Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.63-67
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    • 2012
  • Mosquitoes are the vectors of a number of viral diseases in cattle, such as Akabane disease, bovine ephemeral fever, Ainovirus infection, Chuzan virus infection, and Ibaraki disease. These diseases are transmitted from an infected animal to a non-infected host via the blood feeding of the vector. In Korea, the National Veterinary Research and Quarantine Services, Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is responsible for planning, implementation, laboratory investigations and reporting the results of the national surveillance program for mosquito-borne bovine diseases (MBD). The surveillance program, which was started in 1993, focused to determine the seroprevalence of each disease in cattle herds in space and time. From the epidemiological point of view, more important component of the surveillance program is to monitor infection rates in vectors for specific pathogens because this information is essential for a more precise understanding the dynamics of these diseases in a given environment and for determining risk of transmission. The aim of this study was to describe and compare methods for estimation of vector infection rates using maximum likelihood (MLE) and minimum infection rate in pooled samples. Factors affecting MLE such as number of pools, pooling size and diagnostic test performance are also discussed, assuming some hypothetical sampling scenarios for MBD.

Spermatogenic Effect of Sulfur and Methyl Sulfonyl Methane in Rats

  • Lee, Young-Lae;Park, Jeong-Sook;Hwang, Seock-Yeon;Han, Kun
    • Natural Product Sciences
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.204-210
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    • 2012
  • Sulfur has been used as a general physical strengthening agent from ancient times in Asia. On the basis of this point, we measured spermatogenic effect of sulfur and methyl sulfonyl methane (MSM) which is used a functional food for arthritis in rats. MSM, a kind of organic sulfur, is used as an alternative of sulfur by some people. Sulfur was administered as a dietary supplement and MSM was administered orally as a solution to 7 week old rat for 6 weeks. All sulfur administered groups showed a significant dose dependent increase in the number of sperm in the testes compared with the control group. Moreover, a histological examination showed an apparent increase in the number of seminiferous tubular cell layers in the testes of the sulfur treated rats. However, there were no observed any increase of sperm in MSM dosing group. In sulfur treated rats, the weights of body, liver, spleen, kidney, testes and epididymides didn't show significantly differences compared with the control. Histopathological examination was not revealed any morphological change in the liver, spleen and kidney. Thus, sulfur may be effectively used to treat sperm deficiency of men, but not MSM.

Numerical investigation on the bifurcation of natural convection in a horizontal concentric annulus (수평동심환상공간내 자연대류의 다중해에 관한 수치적 연구)

  • Jeong, Jae-Dong;Kim, Chan-Jung;Lee, Jun-Sik;Yu, Ho-Seon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.252-263
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    • 1997
  • Steady-state two-dimensional natural convective heat transfer in horizontal cylindrical annuli was studied by solving the governing equations based on the primitive variables. Emphasis was put on the occurrence of the multiple solutions at a given set of parameter values, and on the determination of the bifurcation points at which those multiple solutions begin to branch out. The multicellular flow pattern from the results of melting process in an isothermally heated horizontal cylinder for high Rayleigh numbers, was used as initial guesses for the field variables. This was succeeded in new bifurcation point to tetracellular solutions for an identical set of parameter variables of previous works. The close examination of flow pattern transition around bifurcation point was also conducted. It was found that the mechanisms of flow transition are different depending on the critical Rayleigh number of bifurcation point.

Blending effect of pyrolyzed fuel oil and coal tar in pitch production for artificial graphite

  • Bai, Byong Chol;Kim, Jong Gu;Kim, Ji Hong;Lee, Chul Wee;Lee, Young-Seak;Im, Ji Sun
    • Carbon letters
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    • v.25
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    • pp.78-83
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    • 2018
  • Pyrolyzed fuel oil (PFO) and coal tar was blended in the feedstock to produce pitch via thermal reaction. The blended feedstock and produced pitch were characterized to investigate the effect of the blending ratio. In the feedstock analysis, coal tar exhibited a distinct distribution in its boiling point related to the number of aromatic rings and showed higher Conradson carbon residue and aromaticity values of 26.6% and 0.67%, respectively, compared with PFO. The pitch yield changed with the blending ratio, while the softening point of the produced pitch was determined by the PFO ratio in the blends. On the other hand, the carbon yield increased with increasing coal tar ratio in the blends. This phenomenon indicated that the formation of aliphatic bridges in PFO may occur during the thermal reaction, resulting in an increased softening point. In addition, it was confirmed that the molecular weight distribution of the produced pitch was associated with the predominant feedstock in the blend.

Survival of the Insulator under the electrical stress condition at cryogenic temperature

  • Baek, Seung-Myeong;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.10-14
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    • 2013
  • We have clearly investigated with respect to the survival of the insulator at cryogenic temperature under the electrical stress. The breakdown and voltage-time characteristics of turn-to-turn models for point contact geometry and surface contact geometry using copper multi wrapped with polyimide film for an HTS transformer were investigated under AC and impulse voltage at 77 K. Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thick is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. As expected, the breakdown voltages for the surface contact geometry are lower than that of the point contact geometry, because the contact area of the surface contact geometry is lager than that of the point contact geometry. The time to breakdown t50 decreases as the applied voltage is increased, and the lifetime indices increase slightly as the number of layers is increased. The electric field amplitude at the position where breakdown occurs is about 80 % of the maximum electric field value. The relationship between survival probability and the electrical stress at cryogenic temperature was evident.

Fingerprint Recognition using Connected Ridge Information between Minutiae on the Same Ridger (동일 융성 상에 존재하는 특징점 간의 연결정보를 이용한 지문인식)

  • Kim, Hyoun-Chul;Shim, Jae-Chang
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.28 no.10
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    • pp.764-772
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    • 2001
  • This paper describes fingerprint matching algorithm using connected information between minutiae. We regard minutiae as ridge bifurcation and ridge ending. Features are composed of minutia's position, type(ridge bifurcation or ridge ending) ridge direction and connected ridge information. While the minutiae are extracted, we store connected in information between minutiae on the same ridge. They are used to find corresponding point pairs. Minutiae are aligned completely by two corresponding point pairs and point pattern matching is achieved by counting the number of overlapping pairs. It is invariable t translation and rotation. We have tested proposed method on the 445 fingerprints from 89 persons. These experimental results show that proposed algorithm improve 33% in speed.

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Effects of Safety Awareness and Self-Efficacy on Safety Practice with Elementary School Studentsts: Focusing on the Changwon City (안전의식, 자기효능감이 초등학생들의 안전실천에 미치는 영향: 경남 창원시를 중심으로)

  • PARK, Sin-Young;EO, Yong-Sook
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.515-524
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study was to identify how safety awareness and self-efficacy affect the safety practice with elementary school students. The participants were 369 elementary school students(4~6th grade) in Changwon city. Data were collected using self-report questionnaires and analyzed with the SPSSWIN 22.0 program. Analysis methods were t-test, one way ANOVA, Scheffe test, Pearsons correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression. As a results, safety awareness was an average 2.97 point which was moderate levels and self-efficacy was on over intermediate level of an average 3.73 point. Safety practice was an 3.00 point. Safety practice had statistically significant difference according to grade, number of family, mother's education, character and school life attitude. Safety awareness(r=.41, p<.001) and self-efficacy(r=.39, p<.001) was significant correlation with safety practice. Fire safety(${\beta}=.22$, t=3.56) and self-efficacy(${\beta}=.27$, t=5.32) were significantly influenced safety practice and explaining 24.0% of the variance. From the results of this study, I proposed the education programs to increase safety practice in elementary school students that emphasizes self-efficacy and safety awareness.

Robust Construction of Voronoi Diagram of Circles by Region-Expansion Algorithm (영역 확장법을 통한 평면에서 원들의 보로노이 다이어그램의 강건한 계산)

  • Kim, Donguk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.52-60
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents a numerically robust algorithm to construct a Voronoi diagram of circles in the plane. The circles are allowed to have intersections among them, but one circle cannot fully contain another circle. The Voronoi diagram is a tessellation of the plane into Voronoi regions of given circles. Each circle has its Voronoi region which is defined by a set of points in the plane closer to the circle than any other circles. The distance from a point p to a circle $c_i$ of center $p_i$ and radius $r_i$ is ${\parallel}p-p_i{\parallel}-r_i$, which is the closest Euclidean distance from p to the circle boundary. The proposed algorithm first constructs the point Voronoi diagram of centers of given circles, then it enlarges each point to the circle and expands its Voronoi region accordingly. This region-expansion process is done by local modifications and after completing this process for the whole circles the desired circle Voronoi diagram can be obtained. The proposed algorithm is numerically robust and we provide with a few examples to show its robustness. The algorithm runs in $O(n^2)$ time in the worst case and O(n) time on average where n is the number of the circles. The experiment shows that the region-expansion algorithm is robust and runs fast with strong linear time behavior.