• Wind and Structures
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.467-480
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• 2014

The estimation of wind speed values used in codes and standards is an integral part of the wind load evaluation process. In a number of codes and standards, wind speeds outside of tropical cyclone prone regions are estimated using a single probability distribution developed from observed wind speed data, with no distinction made between the types of causal wind hazard (e.g., thunderstorm). Non-tropical cyclone wind hazards (i.e., thunderstorm, non-thunderstorm) have been shown to possess different probability distributions and estimation of non-tropical cyclone wind speeds based on a single probability distribution has been shown to underestimate wind speeds. Current treatment of non-tropical cyclone wind hazards in worldwide codes and standards is touched upon in this work. Meteorological data is available at a considerable number of United States (U.S.) stations that have information on wind speed as well as the type of causal wind hazard. In this paper, probability distributions are fit to distinct storm types (i.e., thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm) and the results of these distributions are compared to fitting a single probability distribution to all data regardless of storm type (i.e., co-mingled). Distributions fitted to data separated by storm type and co-mingled data will also be compared to a derived (i.e., "mixed") probability distribution considering multiple storm types independently. This paper will analyze two extreme value distributions (e.g., Gumbel, generalized Pareto). It is shown that mixed probability distribution, on average, is a more conservative measure for extreme wind speed estimation. Using a mixed distribution is especially conservative in situations where a given wind speed value for either storm type has a similar probability of occurrence, and/or when a less frequent storm type produces the highest overall wind speeds. U.S. areas prone to multiple non-tropical cyclone wind hazards are identified.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2022.10a
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• pp.536-538
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• 2022

Since the invention of a novel diversity technique, namely a space-time line code (STLC), though the previous studies have theoretically analyzed the error rate and ergodic capacity, the outage probability has not been revealed yet. In this paper, we characterize the probability density function of the instantaneous signal-to-noise ratio, and mathematically derive the closed-form expression of the outage probability. Based on numerical simulations, furthermore, we validate the accuracy of the mathematical analysis, and present the insight into the system design and implementation.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.25-32
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• 2010

This paper evaluates the outage probability of cognitive relay networks with cooperation between secondary users based on the underlay approach, when multiple primary receivers coexist with secondary users. Using an appropriate relay selection criterion in cognitive radio networks, we derive the outage probability of secondary user. It is shown that the outage probability increases as the number of primary receivers increases and we quantify the increase. Through the simulation results, we verify that the performance of relaying transmission is varied more sensitively compared to that of direct transmission as the number of primary receivers increases. In addition, the relaying transmission can be less efficient than the direct transmission when multiple primary receiver exist but it can be more efficient than the direct transmission by increasing the relay selection diversity.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.609-623
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• 2022

To study the empirical seismic fragility of a reinforced concrete girder bridge, based on the theory of numerical analysis and probability modelling, a regression fragility method of a rapid fragility prediction model (Gaussian first-order regression probability model) considering empirical seismic damage is proposed. A total of 1,069 reinforced concrete girder bridges of 22 highways were used to verify the model, and the vulnerability function, plane, surface and curve model of reinforced concrete girder bridges (simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges) considering the number of samples in multiple intensity regions were established. The new empirical seismic damage probability matrix and curve models of observation frequency and damage exceeding probability are developed in multiple intensity regions. A comparative vulnerability analysis between simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges is provided. Depending on the theory of the regional mean seismic damage index matrix model, the empirical seismic damage prediction probability matrix is embedded in the multidimensional mean seismic damage index matrix model, and the regional rapid prediction matrix and curve of reinforced concrete girder bridges, simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges in multiple intensity regions based on mean seismic damage index parameters are developed. The established multidimensional group bridge vulnerability model can be used to quantify and predict the fragility of bridges in multiple intensity regions and the fragility assessment of regional group reinforced concrete girder bridges in the future.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.692-698
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• 1999

In this paper, we proposed the channel assignment scheme for the CDMA(Code Division Multiple Access) cellular system using power allocation concept. Also, the performance of the proposed scheme was analyzed and it was compared with the channel assignment scheme using the fixed power allocation method in the CDMA cellular system. The proposed scheme allocates the power adaptively in according to the traffic loads and the traffic distribution pattern of neighbor cells in the forward link. We found that total call blocking probability (Pr) is more dependent on blocking probability($P_B$) than outage probability (Po) under physical number of channels ($C_{th}$)=30. Pr(Call Blocking Probability) is dependent on $P_B$(Blocking Probability) and Po(Outage Probability) at the same ratio under $C_{th}$=32, in which case P$P_{TA}$(blocking probability for the adaptive power allocation) is greater than $P_{TF}$(blocking probability for the fixed power allocation) about 6%.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.11
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• pp.967-976
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• 2010

AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach) model of FORM (First-Order Reliability Model) which can quantitatively calculate the probability that storm sewer reach to performance limit state was developed in this study. It was defined as a failure if amount of inflow exceed the capacity of storm sewer. Manning's equation and rational equation were used to determine the capacity and inflow of reliability function. Furthermore, statistical characteristics and distribution for the random variables were analyzed as a reliability analysis. It was found that the statistical distribution for annual maximum rainfall intensity of 10 cities in Korea is matched well with Gumbel distribution. Reliability model developed in this study was applied to Y shaped storm sewer system to calculate the probability that storm sewer may exceed the performance limit state. Probability of failure according to diameter was calculated using Manning's equation. Especially, probability of failure of storm sewer in Mungyeong and Daejeon was calculated using rainfall intensity of 50-year return period. It was found that probability of failure can be significantly increased if diameter is decreased below the original diameter. Therefore, cleaning the debris in sewer pipes to maintain the original pipe diameter should be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of failure of storm sewer. In sewer system, two sewer pipes can flow into one sewer pipe. For this case, probability of system failure was calculated using multiple failure mode. Reliability model developed in this study can be applied to design, maintenance, management, and control of storm sewer system.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.422-436
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• 2020

In this paper, we investigate the impact of antenna correlation on secure transmission in a multi-eavesdropper single-input multiple-output (SIMO) system, where the receiver and eavesdroppers are equipped with correlated antennas. Based on the practical passive eavesdropping system, the new closed-form expressions of secrecy outage probability (SOP) and non-zero secrecy capacity probability are derived to explore the effect of antenna correlation on the system with multiple eavesdroppers. To further analyze the secrecy performance of the investigated system, we theoretically derive the expression of asymptotic SOP to clearly show the diversity order and array gain. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations verify the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.487-493
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• 2009

We consider a multiple defaultable zero coupon bond. Assuming defaults occur according to a marked point process, we explain how to estimate the time-t discounted price of zero coupon bond by simulation. For the special case of a given specific random face value, we show that the real probability measure is the risk neutral probability measure. In this case the time-t discounted conditional price can be obtained by observing a single sample path upto the time t in the real world. Furthermore the time-t discounted price can be estimated by observing real situations or by simulation under the real probability measure.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.73-77
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• 2006

In this paper, the Bayesian procedure for the multiple test of fraction nonconforming, p, is proposed. It is the procedure for checking whether the process is out of control, in control, or under the permissible level for p. The procedure is as follows: first, setting up three types of models, $M_1:p=p_0,\;M_2:pp_0$, second, computing the posterior probability of each model. and then choosing the model with the largest posterior probability as a model most fitted for the observed sample among three competitive models. Finally, the simulation study is performed to examine the proposed method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.325-329
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• 2006

In this paper, the Bayesian procedure for the multiple test of fraction nonconforming, p, is proposed. It is the procedure for checking whether the process is out of control, in control, or under the permissible level for p. The procedure is as follows: first, setting up three types of models, $M_1:p=p_0,\;M_2:pp_0$, second, computing the posterior probability of each model. and then choosing the model with the largest posterior probability as a model most fitted for the observed sample among three competitive models. Finally, the simulation study is performed to examine the proposed method.