• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.185-195
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• 2012

This paper focused on forecasting a short-term production of oysters, which have been farmed in Korea, with distinct periodicity of production by year, and different production level by month. To forecast a short-term oyster production, this paper uses monthly data (260 observations) from January 1990 to August 2011, and also adopts several econometrics methods, such as Multiple Regression Analysis Model (MRAM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). As a result, first, the amount of short-term oyster production forecasted by the multiple regression analysis model was 1,337 ton with prediction error of 246 ton. Secondly, the amount of oyster production of the SARIMA I and II models was forecasted as 12,423 ton and 12,442 ton with prediction error of 11,404 ton and 11,423 ton, respectively. Thirdly, the amount of oyster production based on the VECM was estimated as 10,425 ton with prediction errors of 9,406 ton. In conclusion, based on Theil inequality coefficient criterion, short-term prediction of oyster by the VECM exhibited a better fit than ones by the SARIMA I and II models and Multiple Regression Analysis Model.

• 천문학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.35-40
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• 2002

Gaudi, Naber & Sackett pointed out that if an event is caused by a lens system containing more than two planets, all planets will affect the central region of the magnification pattern, and thus the existence of the multiple planets can be inferred by detecting additionally deformed anomalies from intensive monitoring of high magnification microlensing events. Unfortunately, this method has important limitations in identifying the existence of multiple planets and determining their parameters (the mass ratio and the instantaneous projected separation) due to the degeneracy of the resulting light curve anomalies from those induced by a single planet and the complexity of multiple planet lensing models. In this paper, we propose a new channel to search for multiple planets via microlensing. The method is based on the fact that the lensing light curve anomalies induced by multiple planets are well approximated by the superposition of those of the single planet systems where the individual planet-primary pairs act as independent lens systems. Then, if the source trajectory passes both of the outer deviation regions induced by the individual planets, one can unambiguously identify the existence of the multiple planets. We illustrate that the probability of successively detecting light curve anomalies induced by two Jovian-mass planets located in the lensing zone through this channel will be substantial. Since the individual anomalies can be well described by much simpler single planet lensing models, the proposed method has an important advantage of allowing one to accurately determine the parameters of the individual planets.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.51-68
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• 1986

The effects of goal setting in the context of Multiple Criteria Making (MCDM) are classified into two types : internal and external. In the internal models, the impact of the changed goal is limited only to the other goals in MCDM model. By contrast, in the external models, the impact is limited to the factors not included in the MCDM model. In fact, most real world examples of goal setting have the nature of mixed models. To assist in the goal setting process, the framework named Goal Setting Support (GSS) is developed. The GSS helps decision-makers for mixed models to 1) make internal trade-offs in a way that guarantees non-dominancy after the trade-ofs, and 2) evaluate achieved goals systematically. The GSS can be used in creating Decision Support Systems that will allow interactive goal setting.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제30권6호
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• pp.1005-1013
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 태양광 발전량 예측에 필요한 일사량을 예측하기 위해 다양한 기상변수를 활용한 다중회귀, ARIMA, ARIMAX 모형을 사용하여 각 모형의 예측 성능을 비교하고자 한다. 예측에 사용된 변수와 시계열 모형에 대해 소개하고, 실제 일사량 예측에 적용하여 일사량을 예측한 결과 운량, 기온, 습도, 대기권 밖 일사량을 활용한 ARIMAX 모형의 성능이 가장 우수하였다.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.222-227
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• 2013

This paper presents an analytical framework for dynamic spectrum allocation in cognitive radio networks. We propose a distributed queuing based Markovian model each for single channel and multiple channels access for a contending user. Knowledge about spectrum mobility is one of the most challenging problems in both these setups. To solve this, we consider probabilistic channel availability in case of licensed channel detection for single channel allocation, while variable data rates are considered using channel aggregation technique in the multiple channel access model. These models are designed for a centralized architecture to enable dynamic spectrum allocation and are compared on the basis of access latency and service duration.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.89-94
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• 2010

This study deals with the traffic accident according to the improvement projects of frequent accident locations. The objective is to analyze the impact of improvements on the accident reduction. In pursuing the above, the study gives the particular attentions to developing the models based on the data of 70 intersections improved. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, 4 multiple linear regression accident models(total, side right-angle, rear end and side stripe accident) which were statistically significant were developed. Second, total accidents reduction by sight-distance and turning traffic flow improvements, side right-angle by sight-distance, over-speed and lane operation, rear end by turning traffic flow, signal and lane operation, and side stripe by traffic impedance improvements were analyzed. Finally, the above 4 models were evaluated to be statically significant through the correlation analysis and pair-sample t-test.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.54-58
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• 2014

This study deals with the accidents of circular intersections in Korea. The goal is to develop the accident models for 94 circular intersections. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to collecting the data of geometric structure and accidents, and comparatively analyzing such the models as Poisson and NB regression and multiple regression model using SPSS 17.0 and LIMDEP 3.0. The main results are as follows. First, the negative binomial model among various models was analyzed to be the most appropriate. Second, 3 independent variables was adopted in the model, and these variables was analyzed to have a positive relation to the accident rate. Finally, the reduced width of circulatory roadway, removal of the parking lot within circulatory roadway and appropriate levels of approach lane were required to improve the safety of circular intersection.

• Journal of Korea Artificial Intelligence Association
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.21-25
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to compare the performance using multiple regression models to predict the energy consumption of steel industry. Specific independent variables were selected in consideration of correlation among various attributes such as CO2 concentration, NSM, Week Status, Day of week, and Load Type, and preprocessing was performed to solve the multicollinearity problem. In data preprocessing, we evaluated linear and nonlinear relationships between each attribute through correlation analysis. In particular, we decided to select variables with high correlation and include appropriate variables in the final model to prevent multicollinearity problems. Among the many regression models learned, Boosted Decision Tree Regression showed the best predictive performance. Ensemble learning in this model was able to effectively learn complex patterns while preventing overfitting by combining multiple decision trees. Consequently, these predictive models are expected to provide important information for improving energy efficiency and management decision-making at steel industry. In the future, we plan to improve the performance of the model by collecting more data and extending variables, and the application of the model considering interactions with external factors will also be considered.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제32권1B호
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• pp.9-20
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• 2012

최근 수위 예측을 위한 개념적 기반, 수문학적, 물리적 기반 모형 등의 단점을 극복하고자 홍수예측을 위해 자료지향형 모형 중의 하나인 다중선형회귀 모형이 널리 도입되고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 이러한 다중선형회귀 모형의 서로 다른 회귀계수 선정 방법에 따른 홍수예측 성능을 비교 검토하고 이를 통해 적절한 다중회귀 홍수예측 모형을 구축하는 것이다. 이를 위해 입력자료의 자기상관분석을 통해 독립변수의 시간 규모를 결정한 후 최소 자승법, 가중 최소 자승법, 단계별 선택법의 각기 다른 회귀계수 산정 방법을 이용한 홍수예측 모형을 구축하고 중랑천 유역의 다양한 홍수사상에 대해 적용하였다. 구축된 모형들의 성능을 평가하기 위해 평균제곱근오차, Nash-Suttcliffe 효율계수, 평균절대오차, 수정 결정계수와 같이 4개의 통계지표들을 사용하였다. 모의결과 단계별 선택법을 이용한 다중선형회귀 홍수예측 모형이 가장 정확한 예측 결과를 보였고, 최소자승법을 이용한 홍수예측 모형이 가중 최소자승법을 이용한 홍수예측 모형보다 좀 더 나은 예측 결과를 나타냈다.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2009년도 한국우주과학회보 제18권2호
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• pp.29.3-29.3
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• 2009

Recent observations for the Galactic globular clusters (GCs) have shown that a number of GCs have characteristic features of multiple stellar populations, such as multiple main-sequences (MSs), splits in sub-giant branch (SGB), bimodal and/or extended horizontal branches (HBs). Based on the population synthesis models, we investigate star formation histories of the GCs with multiple populations, $\omega$ Cen, M54, NGC 1851, NGC 6388, NGC 6441, and NGC 2808, by comparing synthetic model color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) with observations. We adopt most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale (Y2) stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones from MS to post-HB, as well as improved color-temperature transformations from the recent stellar atmosphere libraries. Our models show that the observed features can be naturally explained by assuming the presence of helium-enhanced subpopulations.