• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multiple Linear Regression Model

Search Result 625, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Water shortage assessment by applying future climate change for boryeong dam using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 보령댐의 물부족 평가)

  • Kim, Won Jin;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Jin Uk;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.51 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1195-1205
    • /
    • 2018
  • In the study, the water shortage of Boryeong Dam watershed ($163.6km^2$) was evaluated under future climate change scenario. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used considering future dam release derived from multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. The SWAT was calibrated and verified by using daily observed dam inflow and storage for 12 years (2005 to 2016) with average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.59 and 0.91 respectively. The monthly dam release by 12 years MLR showed coefficient of determination ($R^2$) of above 0.57. Among the 27 RCP 4.5 scenarios and 26 RCP 8.5 scenarios of GCM (General Circulation Model), the RCP 8.5 BCC-CSM1-1-M scenario was selected as future extreme drought scenario by analyzing SPI severity, duration, and the longest dry period. The scenario showed -23.6% change of yearly dam storage, and big changes of -34.0% and -24.1% for spring and winter dam storage during 2037~2047 period comparing with 2007~2016 period. Based on Runs theory of analyzing severity and magnitude, the future frequency of 5 to 10 years increased from 3 in 2007~2016 to 5 in 2037~2046 period. When considering the future shortened water shortage return period and the big decreases of winter and spring dam storage, a new dam operation rule from autumn is necessary for future possible water shortage condition.

INFRARED THERMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE RISE ON THE SURFACE OF BUCHANAN PLUGGER (적외선열화상장치를 이용한 Buchanan plugger 표면의 온도상승 분석)

  • Choi, Sung-A;Kim, Sun-Ho;Hwang, Yun-Chan;Youn, Chang;Oh, Byung-Ju;Choi, Bo-Young;Juhng, Woo-Nam;Jeong, Sun-Wa;Hwang, In-Nam;Oh, Won-Mann
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.370-381
    • /
    • 2002
  • This study was performed to evaluate the temperature rise on various position of the Buchanan plugger, the peak temperature of plugger's type and the temperature change by its touching time of heat control spling. The heat carrier system 'System B' (Model 1005, Analytic Technologies, USA) and the Buchanan's plug-gers of F, FM, M and ML sizes are used for this study. The temperature was set to 20$0^{\circ}C$ which Dr. Buchanan's "continuous wave of condensation" technique recommended on digital display and the power level on it was set to 10. In order to apply heat on the Buchanan's pluggers, the heat control spring was touched for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 seconds respectively. The temperature rise on the surface of the pluggers were measured at 0.5 mm intervals from tip to 20 mm length of shank using the infrared thermography (Radiation Thermometer-IR Temper, NEC San-ei Instruments, Ltd, Japan) and TH31-702 Data capture software program (NEC San-ei Instruments, Ltd, Japan). Data were analyzed using a one way ANOVA followed by Duncan's multiple range test and linear regression test. The results as follows. 1. The position at which temperature peaked was approximately at 0.5 mm to 1.5 mm far from the tip of Buchanan's pluggers (p<0.001). The temperature was constantly decreased toward the shank from the tip of it (p<0.001). 2. When the pluggerss were heated over 5 seconds, the peak temperature by time of measurement revealed from 253.3$\pm$10.5$^{\circ}C$ to 192.1$\pm$3.3$^{\circ}C$ in a touch for 1 sec, from 218.6$\pm$5.$0^{\circ}C$ to 179.5$\pm$4.2$^{\circ}C$ in a touch for 2 sec, from 197.5$\pm$3.$0^{\circ}C$ to 167.5$\pm$3.7$^{\circ}C$ in a touch for 3 sec, from 183.7$\pm$2.5$^{\circ}C$ to 159.8$\pm$3.6$^{\circ}C$ in a touch for 4 sec and from 164.9$\pm$2.$0^{\circ}C$ to 158.4$\pm$1.8$^{\circ}C$ in a touch for 5 sec. A touch for 1 sec showed the highest peak temperature, followed by, in descending order, 2 sec, 3 sec, 4 sec. A touch for 5 sec showed the lowest peak temperature (p<0.001). 3. A each type of pluggers showed different peak temperatures. The peak temperature was the highest in F type and followed by, in descending order, M type, ML type. FM type revealed the lowest peak temperature (p<0.001). The results of this study indicated that pluggers are designed to concentrate heat at around its tip, its actual temperature does not correlate well with the temperature which Buchanan's "continuous wave of condensation" technique recommend, and finally a quick touch of heat control spring for 1sec reveals the highest temperature rise.

The Variations of Stratospheric Ozone over the Korean Peninsula 1985~2009 (한반도 상공의 오존층 변화 1985~2009)

  • Park, Sang Seo;Kim, Jhoon;Cho, Nayeong;Lee, Yun Gon;Cho, Hi Ku
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.349-359
    • /
    • 2011
  • The climatology in stratospheric ozone over the Korean Peninsula, presented in previous studies (e.g., Cho et al., 2003; Kim et al., 2005), is updated by using daily and monthly data from satellite and ground-based data through December 2009. In addition, long-term satellite data [Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), 1979~2009] have been also analyzed in order to deduce the spatial distributions and temporal variations of the global total ozone. The global average of total ozone (1979~2009) is 298 DU which shows a minimum of about 244 DU in equatorial latitudes and increases poleward in both hemispheres to a maximum of about 391 DU in Okhotsk region. The recent period, from 2006 to 2009, shows reduction in total ozone by 6% relative to the values for the pre-1980s (1979~1982). The long-term trends were estimated by using a multiple linear regression model (e.g., WMO, 1999; Cho et al., 2003) including explanatory variables for the seasonal variation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and solar cycle over three different time intervals: a whole interval from 1979 to 2009, the former interval from 1979 to 1992, and the later interval from 1993 to 2009 with a turnaround point of deep minimum in 1993 is related to the effect of Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The global trend shows -0.93% $decade^{-1}$ for the whole interval, whereas the former and the later interval trends amount to -2.59% $decade^{-1}$ and +0.95% $decade^{-1}$, respectively. Therefore, the long-term total ozone variations indicate that there are positive trends showing a recovery sign of the ozone layer in both North/South hemispheres since around 1993. Annual mean total ozone (1985~2009) is distributed from 298 DU for Jeju ($33.52^{\circ}N$) to 352 DU for Unggi ($42.32^{\circ}N$) in almost zonally symmetric pattern over the Korean Peninsula, with the latitudinal gradient of 6 DU $degree^{-1}$. It is apparent that seasonal variability of total ozone increases from Jeju toward Unggi. The annual mean total ozone for Seoul shows 323 DU, with the maximum of 359 DU in March and the minimum of 291 DU in October. It is found that the day to day variability in total ozone exhibits annual mean of 5.7% in increase and -5.2% in decrease. The variability as large as 38.4% in increase and 30.3% in decrease has been observed, respectively. The long-term trend analysis (e.g., WMO, 1999) of monthly total ozone data (1985~2009) merged by satellite and ground-based measurements over the Korean Peninsula shows increase of 1.27% $decade^{-1}$ to 0.80% $decade^{-1}$ from Jeju to Unggi, respectively, showing systematic decrease of the trend magnitude with latitude. This study also presents a new analysis of ozone density and trends in the vertical distribution of ozone for Seoul with data up to the end of 2009. The mean vertical distributions of ozone show that the maximum value of the ozone density is 16.5 DU $km^{-1}$ in the middle stratospheric layer between 24 km and 28 km. About 90.0% and 71.5% of total ozone are found in the troposphere and in the stratosphere between 15 and 33 km, respectively. The trend analysis reconfirms the previous results of significant positive ozone trend, of up to 5% $decade^{-1}$, in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere (0~24 km), with negative trend, of up to -5% $decade^{-1}$, in the stratosphere (24~38 km). In addition, the Umkehr data show a positive trend of about 3% $decade^{-1}$ in the upper stratosphere (38~48 km).

The Effect of Body Mass Index, Fat Percentage, and Fat-free Mass Index on Pulmonary Function Test -With Particular Reference to Parameters Derived from Forced Expiratory Volume Curve- (신체질량지수 및 체지방률, 그리고 제지방지수가 폐기능 검사에 미치는 영향 -노력성 호기곡선을 중심으로-)

  • Park, Ji Young;Pack, Jong Hae;Park, Hye Jung;Bae, Seong Wook;Shin, Kyeong Cheol;Chung, Jin Hong;Lee, Kwan Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.54 no.2
    • /
    • pp.210-218
    • /
    • 2003
  • Background : Sex specific cross sectional reference values for the lung function indices usually employ a linear model with a term for age and height. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of the body mass index (BMI), the fat percentage of the body mass and the fat-free mass index (FFMI) on the forced expiratory volume curve. Methods : Between January 2000 and December 2001, a total of 300 subjects, 150 men and 150 women (mean age : $45{\pm}13$ years), with a normal lung function were enrolled in the study sample. This study measured the $FEV_1$, FVC and $FEF_{25-75%}$ from the forced expiratory volume curve by a spirometer and the body composition by a bioelectrical impedance method in all subjects. Multiple regression analysis was used in order to examine the effects of the body composition on the parameters derived from the forced expiratory volume curve. Results : After adjusting for age, the BMI and Fat percentage improved the descriptions of the FVC (p<0.05, $r^2=0.491$) and $FEV_1$ (p<0.05, $r^2=0.654$) in women. In contrast, the FFMI contributed significantly to the FVC (p<0.05, $r^2=0.432$) and $FEV_1$ (p<0.05, $r^2=0.567$) in men. The $FEF_{25-75%}$ correlated with the fat percentage in women (p<0.05, $r^2=0.337$). Conclusion : These results suggest that the BMI, the fat percentage and the FFMI are significant determinants of the forced expiratory volume curve. The plmonary function test, when considering the BMI, the fat percentage and the FFMI, might be useful in clinical applications.

Plasma Levels of High Molecular Weight Adiponectin are Associated with Cardiometabolic Risks in Patients with Hypertension (고혈압 환자에서 혈장 고분자량 아디포넥틴 농도와 심장-대사위험인자와의 관련성 연구)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung;Shin, Min-Jeong
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.41 no.8
    • /
    • pp.733-741
    • /
    • 2008
  • In the present study, we comprehensively examined the associations of plasma levels of total adiponectin and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin with the features of cardiometabolic risks including body fat distribution, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and inflammatory markers in a cross-sectional study of 110 treated hypertensive patients. Blood lipid profiles, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA- IR) derived from fasting glucose and insulin concentrations were determined. Plasma levels of tumor necrosis factor-${\alpha}$ (TNF-${\alpha}$), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) were analyzed using ELISA. The results showed that plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with body mass index (BMI, r = - 0.203, p < 0.05) and waist circumference (r = -0.307, p < 0.01), which was not shown in total adiponectin. Plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with triglyceride (r = -0.223, p < 0.05) and positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (r = 0.228, p < 0.05). Plasma levels of adiponectin were positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (r = 0.224, p < 0.05). Plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with hsCRP (r = -0.276, p < 0.01) and IL-6 (r = -0.272, p < 0.01). In addition, there were weak associations between plasma levels of HMWadiponectin and TNF-${\alpha}$ (r = -0.163, p = 0.07) and ICAM-1 (r = -0.158, p = 0.09). However, there were no significant associations of total adiponectin with inflammatory markers except hsCRP (r = -0.203, p < 0.05). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that only plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin was an independent factor influencing serum levels of hsCRP, a marker of systemic low grade inflammation, after adjusting for age, gender, BMI, waist circumference, alcohol intake, smoking status, blood lipids, total adiponectin and drug use (p < 0.01). These results suggest that HMW-adiponectin, rather than total adiponectin, is likely to be closely associated with the features of cardiometabolic risks in treated hypertensive patients and might be effective biomarker for the prediction of cardiovascular disease.