• 제목/요약/키워드: Multinomial logit model

검색결과 132건 처리시간 0.017초

준모수적 집단 중심 방법을 적용한 청소년기 초기의 공격성 변화에 따른 잠재계층 분류와 관련요인 검증 (Identifying Latent Classes in Early Adolescents' Overt Aggression and Testing Determinants of the Classes Using Semi-parametric Group-based Approach)

  • 노언경;홍세희
    • 한국조사연구학회지:조사연구
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.37-58
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구의 목적은 청소년의 초기 단계에 해당하는 초등학교 고학년 학생들의 공격성 변화에 따라 구분되는 집단(잠재계층)의 수와 그 형태를 알아보고, 각 잠재계층과 성별, 자기통제력, 부모애착, 교사애착, 비행친구 수와의 관련성을 밝히는 것이다. 이를 위하여 한국청소년패널조사의 초등학교 4학년 패널 1, 2, 3차 년도 종단자료에 Nagin(1999)의 준모수적 집단 중심 방법(semi-parametric group-based approach)을 적용하였다. 분석 결과 변화형태에 따라 4개의 잠재계층이 도출되었고, 그 형태에 따라 저수준 집단, 증가 집단, 중간수준 집단, 고수준 집단으로 명명하였다. 다항 로짓분석을 통해 영향요인을 검증한 결과 성별, 자기통제력, 교사애착, 비행친구 수가 잠재계층을 결정하는 데 유의미한 변수로 나타났다. 본 연구는 공격성의 변화에 영향을 줄 수 있는 생태학적 변수들을 바탕으로 잠재계층을 예측하여 공격성으로 인해 범죄를 저지를 가능성이 있는 청소년들을 위한 적절한 대비책을 찾는 데 도움을 줄 것이다. 또한 변화의 형태에 따라 잠재계층을 도출하고 그 잠재계층을 결정짓는 데 미치는 독립변수의 효과들을 검증하는 종단연구 방법은 아직 널리 이용되고 있지 않다는 점에서 연구 방법론적 측면에서도 의의가 있다.

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다변량 프로빗 모형을 이용한 가전제품 구매의 상관관계 분석 (Correlation among Ownership of Home Appliances Using Multivariate Probit Model)

  • 김창섭;신정우;이미숙;이종수
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2009
  • As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.

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