• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multi-hazard

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Comparison between Parametric and Semi-parametric Cox Models in Modeling Transition Rates of a Multi-state Model: Application in Patients with Gastric Cancer Undergoing Surgery at the Iran Cancer Institute

  • Zare, Ali;Mahmoodi, Mahmood;Mohammad, Kazem;Zeraati, Hojjat;Hosseini, Mostafa;Naieni, Kourosh Holakouie
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.6751-6755
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    • 2013
  • Background: Research on cancers with a high rate of mortality such as those occurring in the stomach requires using models which can provide a closer examination of disease processes and provide researchers with more accurate data. Various models have been designed based on this issue and the present study aimed at evaluating such models. Materials and Methods: Data from 330 patients with gastric cancer undergoing surgery at Iran Cancer Institute from 1995 to 1999 were analyzed. Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion were used to compare parametric and semi-parametric Cox models in modeling transition rates among different states of a multi-state model. R 2.15.1 software was used for all data analyses. Results: Analysis of Cox-Snell Residuals and Akaike Information Criterion for all probable transitions among different states revealed that parametric models represented a better fitness. Log-logistic, Gompertz and Log-normal models were good choices for modeling transition rate for relapse hazard (state $1{\rightarrow}state$ 2), death hazard without a relapse (state $1{\rightarrow}state$ 3) and death hazard with a relapse (state $2{\rightarrow}state$ 3), respectively. Conclusions: Although the semi-parametric Cox model is often used by most cancer researchers in modeling transition rates of multistate models, parametric models in similar situations- as they do not need proportional hazards assumption and consider a specific statistical distribution for time to occurrence of next state in case this assumption is not made - are more credible alternatives.

An Algorithm for Searching Pareto Optimal Paths of HAZMAT Transportation: Efficient Vector Labeling Approach (위험물 수송 최적경로 탐색 알고리즘 개발: Efficient Vector Labeling 방법으로)

  • Park, Dong-Joo;Chung, Sung-Bong;Oh, Jeong-Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2011
  • This paper deals with a methodology for searching optimal route of hazard material (hazmat) vehicles. When we make a decision of hazmat optimal paths, there is a conflict between the public aspect which wants to minimize risk and the private aspect which has a goal of minimizing travel time. This paper presents Efficient Vector Labeling algorithm as a methodology for searching optimal path of hazmat transportation, which is intrinsically one of the multi-criteria decision making problems. The output of the presented algorithm is a set of Pareto optimal paths considering both risk and travel time at a time. Also, the proposed algorithm is able to identify non-dominated paths which are significantly different from each other in terms of links used. The proposed Efficient Vector Labeling algorithm are applied to test bed network and compared with the existing k-shortest path algorithm. Analysis of result shows that the proposed algorithm is more efficient and advantageous in searching reasonable alternative routes than the existing one.

The Application of Resettable Device to Semi-Active Tuned Mass Damper Building Systems for Multi-level Seismic Hazard Mitigation

  • Chey, Min-Ho
    • Architectural research
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2012
  • An innovative multi-story Semi-Active Tuned Mass Damper (SATMD) building system is proposed to control seismic response of existing structures. The application of adding new stories as large tuned mass and semi-active (SA) resettable actuators as central features of the control scheme is derived. For the effective control of the structures, the optimal tuning parameters are considered for the large mass ratio, for which a previously proposed equation is used and the practical optimal stiffness is allocated to the actuator stiffness and rubber bearing stiffness. A two-degree-of freedom (2-DOF) model is adopted to verify the principal efficiency of the suggested structural control concept. The simulations for this study utilizes the three ground motions, from SAC project, having probability of exceedance of 50% in 50 years, 10% in 50 years, and 2% in 50 years for the Los Angeles region. 12-story moment resisting frames, which are modified as '12+2' and '12+4' story structures, are investigated to assess the viability and effectiveness of the system that aims to reduce the response of the buildings to earthquakes. The control ability of the SATMD scheme is compared to that of an uncontrolled and an ideal Passive Tuned Mass Damper (PTMD) building system. From the performance results of suggested '12+2' and '12+4' story retrofitting case studies, SATMD systems shows significant promise for application of structural control where extra stories might be added.

Effects of Uncertain Spatial Data Representation on Multi-source Data Fusion: A Case Study for Landslide Hazard Mapping

  • Park No-Wook;Chi Kwang-Hoon;Kwon Byung-Doo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.393-404
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    • 2005
  • As multi-source spatial data fusion mainly deal with various types of spatial data which are specific representations of real world with unequal reliability and incomplete knowledge, proper data representation and uncertainty analysis become more important. In relation to this problem, this paper presents and applies an advanced data representation methodology for different types of spatial data such as categorical and continuous data. To account for the uncertainties of both categorical data and continuous data, fuzzy boundary representation and smoothed kernel density estimation within a fuzzy logic framework are adopted, respectively. To investigate the effects of those data representation on final fusion results, a case study for landslide hazard mapping was carried out on multi-source spatial data sets from Jangheung, Korea. The case study results obtained from the proposed schemes were compared with the results obtained by traditional crisp boundary representation and categorized continuous data representation methods. From the case study results, the proposed scheme showed improved prediction rates than traditional methods and different representation setting resulted in the variation of prediction rates.

Projection of Future Drought of Korea Based on Probabilistic Approach Using Multi-model and Multi Climate Change Scenarios (다양한 기후변화 시나리오와 기후모델에 의한 남한지역 미래가뭄의 확률론적 전망)

  • Park, Beom-Seop;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Chang-Joo;Jang, Ho-Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.1871-1885
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    • 2013
  • In this study, spatio-temporal distribution of future drought in South Korea was predicted by using the meteorological data generated from GCMs on which a variety of climate changing scenarios are applied. Drought phenomena was quantitatively analyzed using SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index). In addition, potential drought hazard maps for different drought duration and return period were made for the South Koreaby drought frequency analysis after deriving SDF(Severity-Duration-Frequency) curves using the 54 weather stations throughout the country. From the potential drought hazard maps, drought is expected to be severer in Nakdong River basin and Seomjin River basin under A2 scenario. It was also predicted that drought would be severe in the Han River basin by RCP8.5 scenario. In the future, potential drought hazard area would be expanded until the Eastern part of Nakdong River basin as compared with that of past under A2 scenario condition. Research results indicated that future drought would be extensively occurred all areas of South Korea not limiting in the southern part of country.

Researches Related to Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Taiwan

  • Loh, Chin-Hsiung;Yeh, Chin-Hsun
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.13-26
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    • 1998
  • In view of the rapid development of economics and technology, perilous meteorological and geological conditions often cause natural disasters and result in severe loss of lives and properties in Taiwan. To promote multi-hazard mitigation strategies in an integrated a, pp.oach, the National Science Council established a National Science and Technology Program for Disaster Mitigation in January 1998. This program emphasizes on the implementation of research results in the National Disaster Management System. This paper describes the earthquake loss estimation methodology that is currently developed in Taiwan. Topics of potential earth science hazards (PESH) and building vulnerability analysis are described in detail.

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UsN based Soundness Monitoring Diagnosis System of Power Transmission Steel Tower (UsN 기반의 송전철탑 건전성 감시진단시스템 기본설계)

  • Lee, Dong-Cheol;Bae, Ul-Lok;Kim, Woo-Jung;Min, Bung-Yun
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, design method for power tower hazard diagnosis/predition system based on UsN was proposed. The proposed method used multi-hybrid sensors to measure rotation, displacement, and inclination state of power tower, and made decision/prediction of hazard of power tower. System design was made with requirement analysis of monitoring for transmission power facility and use of MEMS and optic fiber sensors. For hazard decision, analysis of correlation was made using sensor output. LN based on IEC61850,international standard for digital substation, was also proposed. For transmission facility monitoring, digital substation and power tower were considered as parts of power facility networks.

Kullback-Leibler Information of Consecutive Order Statistics

  • Kim, Ilmun;Park, Sangun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2015
  • A calculation of the Kullback-Leibler information of consecutive order statistics is complicated because it depends on a multi-dimensional integral. Park (2014) discussed a representation of the Kullback-Leibler information of the first r order statistics in terms of the hazard function and simplified the r-fold integral to a single integral. In this paper, we first express the Kullback-Leibler information in terms of the reversed hazard function. Then we establish a generalized result of Park (2014) to an arbitrary consecutive order statistics. We derive a single integral form of the Kullback-Leibler information of an arbitrary block of order statistics; in addition, its relation to the Fisher information of order statistics is discussed with numerical examples provided.

Prediction of Stream Flow on Probability Distributed Model using Multi-objective Function (다목적함수를 이용한 PDM 모형의 유량 분석)

  • Ahn, Sang-Eok;Lee, Hyo-Sang;Jeon, Min-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2009
  • A prediction of streamflow based on multi-objective function is presented to check the performance of Probability Distributed Model(PDM) in Miho stream basin, Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea. PDM is a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model which has been widely used for flood prevention activities in UK Environmental Agency. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolkit(MCAT) is a numerical analysis tools based on population sampling, which allows evaluation of performance, identifiability, regional sensitivity and etc. PDM is calibrated for five model parameters by using MCAT. The results show that the performance of model parameters(cmax and k(q)) indicates high identifiability and the others obtain equifinality. In addition, the multi-objective function is applied to PDM for seeking suitable model parameters. The solution of the multi-objective function consists of the Pareto solution accounting to various trade-offs between the different objective functions considering properties of hydrograph. The result indicated the performance of model and simulated hydrograph are acceptable in terms on Nash Sutcliffe Effciency*(=0.035), FSB(=0.161), and FDBH(=0.809) to calibration periods, validation periods as well.

외국의 코호트 연구 현황

  • Jo Seong-Il
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.30-37
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    • 2003
  • o Cohort study became the major approach to study of chronic diseases such as CVD and cancer o Cohort can be population-based or volunteer-based o Types of be population-be categorized by source population and selection mechanism o More and more cohort studies involve biological specimens, such as blood, urine, toenail, cheek cells, etc. o Multi-center and multi-national collaboration is an effective way to increase sample size. o Current statistical method typically use time-to-event analysis by Cox proportional hazard model.

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