• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multi-Hazard

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Study on Management Plan of the Financial Supervisory Service According to Increase of Risk of Household Debts (금융권 가계부채 위험증가에 따른 금융감독원 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, YunHong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.96-106
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    • 2018
  • The government adopted activation policy of real estate to overcome low economic growth rate. Real estate activation plan adopted by the government raised credit limit by lowering the regulation, and reduced real estate investment cost by reducing the base rate. Also, delayed transfer tax on multi-house owner to activate real estate investment and resolved purchase right resale. Relief of real estate regulate caused increase of housing sales and price increase, and the real estate market changed to overheating aspect such as premium upon completion of lot sale in a short time. Such market atmosphere greatly increased household debs as owners own houses based on 'financial debt' instead of their income. Since 2017, real estate policy was reinforced to reduce household debts and lending rate was raised due to rise of base rate, accordingly, burden of household debt is expected to increase. This research suggested a plan for the Financial Supervisory Service to efficiently manage the financial world by analyzing the cause and problem of household debs.

Associations of Most Prevalent Risk Factors with Lung Cancer and Their Impact on Survival Length

  • Khan, Mohammad Haroon;Hussain, Shahid;Bano, Raisa;Jamshed-ul-Hassan, Hafiz;Aadil ur Rehman, Muhammad
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.sup3
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 2016
  • Lung cancer is one of the most common malignancies in the world. Its incidence and mortality rates are on the rise in Pakistan. However, epidemiological studies to identify common lung cancer determinants in the Pakistani population have been limited. In this study, data of 440 cases and 323 controls were collected from different hospitals in Peshawar and Islamabad, along with information about socio-demographic factors including age, sex and smoking. Univariate and multi-factorial analyses of socio-demographic factors in association with each other were also performed. Overall survival analysis highlighted that, out of 440 patients in the lung cancer dataset, 204 people were uncensored with a median survival time of 13 months (95% CI=12-18). There were 41 femaleand 399 male patients. Differences were observed between length of survival in the males and females (${\chi}12$ = 6.1; p-value = 0.01). Gender was observed to be significantly related to survival (p-value< 0.01), with better survival in females (hazard ratio=2). Cox regression was extended to adjust for the covariate age (z = 2.5; p-value = 0.02). Survival analysis was also performed on the basis of smoking groups (current smokers, former smokers and never smoked individuals) and smoking duration (smoking duration >10 years, <10 years and never smoked). Smoking duration was significantly associated with survival (p-value < 0.01), with better survival in never smokers in comparison to both smoking for greater or less than 10 years. Strong associations were observed for smoking group with duration greater than 10 years, OR=6.1(3.9-9.5) on univariate and multifactorial analysis OR=11.3(CI=6.8-19.3).

The Development and Application Of Cyber Counseling System for the Gifted Class (영재 학급을 위한 사이버 상담 시스템 개발 및 적용)

  • Chung, Hyun-Nam;Kim, Dong-Hyu;Goh, Byung-Oh
    • Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.177-187
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    • 2004
  • It soaks but from 2003 the gifted child whom it is propelling as the enterprise of real national dimension oneself will know and it will do well the case which with the thought which goes wrong it lets to let alone is many but about lower social unsuitable Eung and melancholia, nervous characteristic anorexia cung with the back the same multi branch problem point occurs with emotional vulnerability of the gifted person. From the gifted people it grasps the emotional vulnerability which occurs from the dissertation which it sees consequently and the gifted person cyber counseling system which does the hazard web which solves a problem point in base plan and it embodies. One side, it applied the gifted child and the parents who are participating to an Dae-jeon 6th area joint the gifted person class in the gifted person cyber counseling system which it develops the result and it analyzed. Emotional vulnerability of the analysis result the gifted child considerable portion there is a possibility the fact that it overcomes, if facing each other it will be able to complement the portion which is insufficient from consultation.

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Analysis on Inundation Characteristics for Flood Impact Forecasting in Gangnam Drainage Basin (강남지역 홍수영향예보를 위한 침수특성 분석)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2017
  • Progressing from weather forecasts and warnings to multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services represents a paradigm shift in service delivery. Urban flooding is a typical meteorological disaster. This study proposes support plan for urban flooding impact-based forecast by providing inundation risk matrix. To achieve this goal, we first configured storm sewer management model (SWMM) to analyze 1D pipe networks and then grid based inundation analysis model (GIAM) to analyze 2D inundation depth over the Gangnam drainage area with $7.4km^2$. The accuracy of the simulated inundation results for heavy rainfall in 2010 and 2011 are 0.61 and 0.57 in POD index, respectively. 20 inundation scenarios responding on rainfall scenarios with 10~200 mm interval are produced for 60 and 120 minutes of rainfall duration. When the inundation damage thresholds are defined as pre-occurrence stage, occurrence stage to $0.01km^2$, 0.01 to $0.1km^2$, and $0.1km^2$ or more in area with a depth of 0.5 m or more, rainfall thresholds responding on each inundation damage threshold results in: 0 to 20 mm, 20 to 50 mm, 50 to 80 mm, and 80 mm or more in the rainfall duration 60 minutes and 0 to 30 mm, 30 to 70 mm, 70 to 110 mm, and 110 mm or more in the rainfall duration 120 minutes. Rainfall thresholds as a trigger of urban inundation damage can be used to form an inundation risk matrix. It is expected to be used for urban flood impact forecasting.

Cigarette Smoking, Alcohol Consumption, Tuberculosis and Risk of Lung Cancer: The Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort Study (흡연, 음주, 폐결핵과 폐암 발생 위험에 관한 코호트 연구)

  • Bae, Ji-Suk;Gwack, Jin;Park, Sue-Kyung;Shin, Hai-Rim;Chang, Soung-Hoon;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.321-328
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    • 2007
  • Objectives : The aim of this study was to evaluate the roles of cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, tuberculosis, and their interactions in the risk of lung cancer in a Korean cohort. Methods : The study subjects comprised 13,150 males and females aged above 20 years old. During the follow up period from 1993 to 2002, 79 lung cancer cases were identified by the central cancer registry and the national death certificate database. Information on cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and the history of physician-diagnosed tuberculosis was obtained by interview. Indirect chest X-ray findings were also evaluated to ascertain tuberculosis cases. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) after adjusting for age and gender. Results : Cigarette smoking was statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of lung cancer [for current smokers, RR = 2.33 (95% CI = 1.23 - 4.42) compared to non-smokers]. After further adjustment for cigarette smoking, both alcohol consumption and tuberculosis showed no statistically significant association with the risk of lung cancer [for current drinkers, RR = 0.80 (95% CI = 0.48 - 1.33) compared to non-drinkers] [for tuberculosis cases, RR = 1.17 (95% CI = 0.58 - 2.36) compared to non-cases]. There was no statistically significant interaction between cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption (p-interaction = 0.38), or cigarette smoking and tuberculosis (p-interaction = 0.74). Conclusions : Although cigarette smoking was confirmed as a risk factor of lung cancer in this cohort study, this study suggests that alcohol consumption and tuberculosis may not be associated with the risk of lung cancer.

Seismic Fragility Analysis for Probabilistic Seismic Performance Evaluation of Multi-Degree-of-Freedom Bridge Structures (확률론적 내진성능평가를 위한 다자유도 교량구조물의 지진취약도해석)

  • Jin, He-Shou;Song, Jong-Keol
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.269-272
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    • 2008
  • The seismic fragility curves of a structure represents the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage given various levels of ground motion intensityand the seismic fragility curve is essential to evaluation of structural performance and assessment of risk and loss of structures. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility functions for bridge structures in Koreaby reviewing those of advanced countries. Therefore, at first, we investigated development conditions of the seismic fragility functions. And the next highway bridges in Korea are classified into a number of categories and several typical bridges are selected to estimate seismic fragilities for using this analysis method in Korea. Finally, fragility curves for PSC Box girder bridge are estimated. The results show that the bridge classification and damage state play an important role in estimation of seismic damage and seismic fragility analysis for bridge structures.

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Artificial neural network for predicting nuclear power plant dynamic behaviors

  • El-Sefy, M.;Yosri, A.;El-Dakhakhni, W.;Nagasaki, S.;Wiebe, L.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.3275-3285
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    • 2021
  • A Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is a complex dynamic system-of-systems with highly nonlinear behaviors. In order to control the plant operation under both normal and abnormal conditions, the different systems in NPPs (e.g., the reactor core components, primary and secondary coolant systems) are usually monitored continuously, resulting in very large amounts of data. This situation makes it possible to integrate relevant qualitative and quantitative knowledge with artificial intelligence techniques to provide faster and more accurate behavior predictions, leading to more rapid decisions, based on actual NPP operation data. Data-driven models (DDM) rely on artificial intelligence to learn autonomously based on patterns in data, and they represent alternatives to physics-based models that typically require significant computational resources and might not fully represent the actual operation conditions of an NPP. In this study, a feed-forward backpropagation artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained to simulate the interaction between the reactor core and the primary and secondary coolant systems in a pressurized water reactor. The transients used for model training included perturbations in reactivity, steam valve coefficient, reactor core inlet temperature, and steam generator inlet temperature. Uncertainties of the plant physical parameters and operating conditions were also incorporated in these transients. Eight training functions were adopted during the training stage to develop the most efficient network. The developed ANN model predictions were subsequently tested successfully considering different new transients. Overall, through prompt prediction of NPP behavior under different transients, the study aims at demonstrating the potential of artificial intelligence to empower rapid emergency response planning and risk mitigation strategies.

Cerebrospinal Fluid Profiles and Their Changes after Intraventricular Chemotherapy as Prognostic or Predictive Markers for Patients with Leptomeningeal Carcinomatosis

  • Kwon, Ji-Woong;Shim, Youngbo;Gwak, Ho-Shin;Park, Eun Young;Joo, Jungnam;Yoo, Heon;Shin, Sang-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.631-643
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    • 2021
  • Objective : Here, we evaluated whether cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) profiles and their changes after intraventricular chemotherapy for leptomeningeal carcinomatosis (LMC) could predict the treatment response or be prognostic for patient overall survival (OS) along with clinical factors. Methods : Paired 1) pretreatment lumbar, 2) pretreatment ventricular, and 3) posttreatment ventricular samples and their CSF profiles were collected retrospectively from 148 LMC patients who received Ommaya reservoir installation and intraventricular chemotherapy. CSF profile changes were assessed by calculating the differences between posttreatment and pretreatment samples from the same ventricular compartment. CSF cell counts were further differentiated into total and other based on clinical laboratory reports. Results : For the treatment response, a decreased CSF 'total' cell count tended to be associated with a 'controlled' increase in intracranial pressure (ICP) (p=0.059), but other profile changes were not associated with either the control of increased ICP or the cytology response. Among the pretreatment CSF profiles, lumbar protein level and ventricular cell count were significantly correlated with OS in univariable analysis, but they were not significant in multi-variable analysis. Among CSF profile changes, a decrease in 'other' cell count showed worse OS than 'no change' or increased groups (p=0.001). The cytological response was significant for OS, but the hazard ratio of partial remission was paradoxically higher than that of 'no response'. Conclusion : A decrease in other cell count of CSF after intraventricular chemotherapy was associated with poor OS in LMC patients. We suggest that more specific CSF biomarkers of cancer cell origin are needed.

Why Do Some People Become Poor? The Characteristics and Determinants of Poverty Entry (누가 왜 빈곤에 빠지는가? 빈곤진입자의 특성 및 요인)

  • Kim, Hwanjoon
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.365-388
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    • 2011
  • By analyzing 1998~2008 Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS), this study examines socio-economic characteristics of people who become poor. The study also explores the reason why they are in the state of poverty. To find determinants affecting poverty entrance, discrete-time hazard models are applied. Major findings are as follows. The socio-economic characteristics driving people into poverty are in the middle way of the long-term poor and the non-poor, combining the characteristics of both groups. This implies that many cases of the newly poor tend to enter and exit from poverty repeatedly. Poverty entry rate was at a high level right after the economic crises, then was a downturn and remained fairly stable since 2000. However, the young, the high-educated, and even the professional are on the rise as a new poverty group. The major reason people become poor is temporary job loss. This factor is confirmed again by multi-variate analyses. In building anti-poverty policies, it is important to distinguish the long-term poor from the short-term poor. For the long-term poor, virtually the only affective policy will be income support. On the other hand, a labor-market strategy for jos security will be more effective for the short-term poor. The characteristics and determinants of poverty entry may affect poverty duration and exit in the future. Future research will be needed to investigate the relationship among these factors.

Prognostication for recurrence patterns after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

  • Andrew Ang;Athena Michaelides;Claude Chelala;Dayem Ullah;Hemant M. Kocher
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.248-261
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    • 2024
  • Backgrounds/Aims: This study aimed to investigate patterns and factors affecting recurrence after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for PDAC (2011-21) and consented to data and tissue collection (Barts Pancreas Tissue Bank) were followed up until May 2023. Clinico-pathological variables were analysed using Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Of 91 people (42 males [46%]; median age, 71 years [range, 43-86 years]) with a median follow-up of 51 months (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 40-61 months), the recurrence rate was 72.5% (n = 66; 12 loco-regional alone, 11 liver alone, 5 lung alone, 3 peritoneal alone, 29 simultaneous loco-regional and distant metastases, and 6 multi-focal distant metastases at first recurrence diagnosis). The median time to recurrence was 8.5 months (95% CI, 6.6-10.5 months). Median survival after recurrence was 5.8 months (95% CI, 4.2-7.3 months). Stratification by recurrence location revealed significant differences in time to recurrence between loco-regional only recurrence (median, 13.6 months; 95% CI, 11.7-15.5 months) and simultaneous loco-regional with distant recurrence (median, 7.5 months; 95% CI, 4.6-10.4 months; p = 0.02, pairwise log-rank test). Significant predictors for recurrence were systemic inflammation index (SII) ≥ 500 (hazard ratio [HR], 4.5; 95% CI, 1.4-14.3), lymph node ratio ≥ 0.33 (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.4-5.8), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7). Conclusions: Timing to loco-regional only recurrence was significantly longer than simultaneous loco-regional with distant recurrence. Significant predictors for recurrence were SII, lymph node ration, and adjuvant chemotherapy.