• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• /
• 제54권4호
• /
• pp.611-622
• /
• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제39권5호
• /
• pp.393-402
• /
• 2013

The Mahalanobis-Taguchi System (MTS) is a diagnostic and predictive method for multivariate data. In the MTS, the Mahalanobis space (MS) of reference group is obtained using the standardized variables of normal data. The Mahalanobis space can be used for multi-class classification. Once this MS is established, the useful set of variables is identified to assist in the model analysis or diagnosis using orthogonal arrays and signal-to-noise ratios. And other several techniques have already been used for classification, such as linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks, etc. The goal of this case study is to compare the ability of the Mahalanobis-Taguchi System and logistic regression using a data set.

• 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
• /
• 제13권6호
• /
• pp.531-555
• /
• 2011

본 연구에서는 암반대응형 TBM의 소요 사양 산출과 커터헤드 설계를 위한 통계모델을 도출하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 다양한 암반 조건에서 수집된 871개의 TBM 굴진자료와 51개의 암석 선형절삭시험 결과에 대해 다변량 회귀분석을 실시하여, 다양한 암석 특성과 절삭 조건을 고려한 최적 모델을 도출하였다. 회귀분석을 통해 도출된 설계모델들을 2개의 쉴드터널 현장에 적용한 결과, 커터 관입깊이, 커터 작용력 및 커터 간격과 같은 TBM 핵심 설계항목의 예측결과들이 실제 현장의 굴진결과와 잘 부합되는 것으로 나타났다.

• Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
• /
• 제16권1호
• /
• pp.63-72
• /
• 2013

임상 의학의 연구에 사용되는 대표적 다변량 분석 방법은 다중 회귀 분석 방법인데, 이는 인과 관계를 토대로 여러 개의 변수에 의한 한꺼번에의 영향력을 분석하기 위한 방법이다. 다중 회귀 분석은 기본적으로 회귀 분석의 기본 가정을 만족해야 함은 물론, 여러 개의 독립 변수들이 포함되기 때문에 변수들을 모형에 포함시키는 방법 및 다중 공선성 문제에 대한 고려가 필요하다. 다중 회귀 분석 모형의 설명력은 결정 계수 $R^2$으로 표현되어 1에 가까울수록 설명력이 크며, 각 독립 변수들의 결과에의 영향력은 회귀 계수인 ${\beta}$값으로 표현된다. 다중 회귀 분석은 종속 변수의 형태에 따라 다중 선형 회귀 분석, 다중 로지스틱 회귀 분석, 콕스 회귀 분석으로 나눌 수 있다. 종속 변수가 연속 변수인 경우 다중 선형 회귀 분석, 범주형 변수인 경우 다중 로지스틱 회귀 분석, 시간의 영향을 고려한 상태 변수인 경우는 콕스 회귀 분석을 시행해야 하며, 각각 결과에의 영향력은 회귀 계수 ${\beta}$, 교차비, 위험비로 평가한다. 이러한 다변량 분석에 대한 이해는 연구를 계획하고 결과를 분석하고자 하는 임상 의사에게 있어 보다 효율적인 연구를 위해 필수적인 소양이라고 할 수 있다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• 제14권7호
• /
• pp.3039-3056
• /
• 2020

Beaches have many risk factors that cause various accidents, such as drifting and drowning, these accidents have many risk factors. To analyze them, in this paper, we identify beach risk factors, and define the criteria and correlation for each risk factor. Then, we generate new risk factors based on Fuzzy theory, and define Situation Awareness for each time. Finally, we propose a beach risk assessment and prediction model based on linear regression using the calculated risk result and pre-defined risk factors. We use national public data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). The results of the experiment showed the prediction accuracy of beach risk to be 0.90%, and the prediction accuracy of drifting and drowning accidents to be 0.89% and 0.86%, respectively. Also, through factor correlation analysis and risk factor assessment, the influence of each of the factors on beach risk can be confirmed. In conclusion, we confirmed that our proposed model can assess and predict beach risks.

• 한국항공우주학회지
• /
• 제43권7호
• /
• pp.601-608
• /
• 2015

유연날개의 공력 및 구조 설계값을 설계 변수로 하여 정적 상태에서의 정적 공탄성해석 및 최적화를 수행하였다. 정적 공탄성해석과 최적화를 위해 상용 해석소프트웨어들이 연계된 강건한 다분야 최적설계 시스템을 개발하였다. 최적화 설계변수로는 가로세로비, 테이퍼비, 후퇴각과 날개 위아래 스킨 두께를 설정하였다. 전역적 다목적 최적화를 위해 실수기반 적응영역 다목적 유전자 알고리즘을 적용하였으며 계산시간을 줄이기 위해 메타모델로 서포트벡터회귀 기법을 적용하였다. 유연날개에 대한 파레토 결과 분석을 통해 최대 항속시간과 최소 중량에 대한 최적 결과를 확인하였다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한원격탐사학회 2005년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2005
• /
• pp.116-119
• /
• 2005

As to the synthetical estimation of land covering parameters or the compounded land covering classification for multi-resolution satellite data, former researches mainly adopted linear or nonlinear regression models to describe the regression relationship of land covering parameters caused by the degradation of spatial resolution, in order to improve the retrieval accuracy of global land covering parameters based on 1;he lower resolution satellite data. However, these methods can't authentically represent the complementary characteristics of spatial resolutions among different satellite data at arithmetic level. To resolve the problem above, a new compounded land covering classification method at arithmetic level for multi-resolution satellite data is proposed in this .paper. Firstly, on the basis of unsupervised clustering analysis of the higher resolution satellite data, the likelihood distribution scatterplot of each cover type is obtained according to multiple-to-single spatial correspondence between the higher and lower resolution satellite data in some local test regions, then Parzen window approach is adopted to derive the real likelihood functions from the scatterplots, and finally the likelihood functions are extended from the local test regions to the full covering area of the lower resolution satellite data and the global covering area of the lower resolution satellite is classified under the maximum likelihood rule. Some experimental results indicate that this proposed compounded method can improve the classification accuracy of large-scale lower resolution satellite data with the support of some local-area higher resolution satellite data.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제77권2호
• /
• pp.261-272
• /
• 2021

The energy-saving block and invisible multi-ribbed frame composite wall (EBIMFCW) is a new type of load-bearing wall. The study of this paper focus on it is hysteresis rule under horizontal cyclic loading. Firstly, based on the experimental data of the twelve specimens under horizontal cyclic loading, the influence of two important parameters of axial compression ratio and shear-span ratio on the restoring force model was analyzed. Secondly, a tetra-linear restoring force model considering four feature points and the degradation law of unloading stiffness was established by combining theoretical analysis and regression analysis of experimental data, and the theoretical formula of the peak load of the EBIMFCW was derived. Finally, the hysteretic path of the restoring force model was determined by analyzing the hysteresis characteristics of the typical hysteresis loop. The results show that the curves calculated by the tetra-linear restoring force model in this paper agree well with the experimental curves, especially the calculated values of the peak load of the wall are very close to the experimental values, which can provide a reference for the elastic-plastic analysis of the EBIMFCW.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.93-107
• /
• 2016

Seismic fragility analysis is a probabilistic decision-making framework which is widely implemented for evaluating vulnerability of a building under earthquake loading. It requires ingredient named probabilistic model and commonly developed using statistics requiring collecting data in large quantities. Preparation of such a data-base is often costly and time-consuming. Therefore, in this paper, by developing generic seismic drift demand model for regular-multi-story steel moment resisting frames is tried to present a novel application of the probabilistic decision-making analysis to practical purposes. To this end, a demand model which is a linear function of intensity measure in logarithmic space is developed to predict overall maximum inter-story drift. Next, the model is coupled with a set of regression-based equations which are capable of directly estimating unknown statistical characteristics of the model parameters.To explicitly address uncertainties arise from randomness and lack of knowledge, the Bayesian regression inference is employed, when these relations are developed. The developed demand model is then employed in a Seismic Fragility Analysis (SFA) for two designed building. The accuracy of the results is also assessed by comparison with the results directly obtained from Incremental Dynamic analysis.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제23권1호
• /
• pp.14-28
• /
• 2007

This study presented the selection of ozone ($O_3$) potential factors and designed and assessed its potential prediction model using multiple-linear regression equations in Ulsan area during the springtime from April to June, $2000{\sim}2004$. $O_3$ potential factors were selected by analyzing the relationship between meterological parameters and surface $O_3$ concentrations. In addition, cluster analysis (e.g., average linkage and K-means clustering techniques) was performed to identify three major synoptic patterns (e.g., $P1{\sim}P3$) for an $O_3$ potential prediction model. P1 is characterized by a presence of a low-pressure system over northeastern Korea, the Ulsan was influenced by the northwesterly synoptic flow leading to a retarded sea breeze development. P2 is characterized by a weakening high-pressure system over Korea, and P3 is clearly associated with a migratory anticyclone. The stepwise linear regression was performed to develop models for prediction of the highest 1-h $O_3$ occurring in the Ulsan. The results of the models were rather satisfactory, and the high $O_3$ simulation accuracy for $P1{\sim}P3$ synoptic patterns was found to be 79, 85, and 95%, respectively ($2000{\sim}2004$). The $O_3$ potential prediction model for $P1{\sim}P3$ using the predicted meteorological data in 2005 showed good high $O_3$ prediction performance with 78, 75, and 70%, respectively. Therefore the regression models can be a useful tool for forecasting of local $O_3$ concentration.