• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.173-186
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• 2002

설계홍수량 산정에는 강우-유출 모형이 주로 사용되고 있으며 이 모형의 가장 중요한 인자는 확률강우량과 단위도이다. 따라서, 확률강우량을 합리적이고 정확하게 산정하는 것은 가장 중요한 과정이다. 국내의 경우, 확률강우량은 유역면적이 일정 기준을 초과할 경우에는 면적확률강우량을 사용하여야 하나 지점평균확률강우량을 주로 사용하고 있다. 이에 따라 확률강우량은 상당히 높게 사용하는 반면 단위도는 상대적으로 낮게 사용하고 있어서 개선 이 필요한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기존에 일반적으로 사용되고 있는 1일, 2일 강우량을 24시간, 48시간 강우량으로 변환하기 위한 계수를 제시하였으며, 유역의 동시간 강우자료를 이용하여 임의시간 면적강우량 자료계열을 작성하였다. 또한 자료계열의 빈도해석을 통하여 기존의 지점평균확률강우량과 면적확률강우량을 산출한 후 면적에 따른 지점평균확률강우량의 면적확률강우량으로의 감소율인 면적감소계수론 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 면적감소계수는 지점평균강우량에서 면적확률강우량을 손쉽게 환산할 수 있는 방안이 된다.

• Composites Research
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.40-47
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 복합 반응면 기법을 제안하고 성능을 고찰하였다. 복합 반응면 기법은 MPP의 좌표를 기준으로 하여 근사모델을 반복 계산하는 기법이다. 성능을 검증하기 위해 비선형 함수와 복합재 적층판에 대하여 신뢰성 해석 기법을 적용하여 파괴확률, MPP(Most Probable failure Point), 신뢰도 지수를 계산하고 일반적인 반응면 기법의 결과와 비교하였다. 파괴확률은 비선형 한계상태식을 가정하고 임의의 파괴 기준을 정의하여 계산하였다. 제안한 복합 반응면 기법을 이용하여 파괴확률을 계산한 결과 일반적인 반응면 기법보다 향상된 성능을 나타내었다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제76권6호
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• pp.675-685
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• 2020

As the classical response surface method (RSM), the polynomial RSM is so easy-to-apply that it is widely used in reliability analysis. However, the trade-off of accuracy and efficiency is still a challenge and the "curse of dimension" usually confines RSM to low dimension systems. In this paper, based on the univariate decomposition, the polynomial RSM is executed in a new mode, called as DPRSM. The general form of DPRSM is given and its implementation is designed referring to the classical RSM firstly. Then, in order to balance the accuracy and efficiency of DPRSM, its adaptive order revision around the most probable point (MPP) is proposed by introducing the univariate polynomial order analysis, noted as RDPRSM, which can analyze the exact nonlinearity of the limit state surface in the region around MPP. For testing the proposed techniques, several numerical examples are studied in detail, and the results indicate that DPRSM with low order can obtain similar results to the classical RSM, DPRSM with high order can obtain more precision with a large efficiency loss; RDPRSM can perform a good balance between accuracy and efficiency and preserve the good robustness property meanwhile, especially for those problems with high nonlinearity and complex problems; the proposed methods can also give a good performance in the high-dimensional cases.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제30권8호
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• pp.889-896
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• 2006

The concept of reliability has been applied to the topology optimization based on a reliability index approach or a performance measure approach. Since these approaches, called double-loop single vector approach, require the nested optimization problem to obtain the most probable point in the probabilistic design domain, the time for the entire process makes the practical use infeasible. In this work, new reliability-based topology optimization method is proposed by utilizing single-loop single-vector approach, which approximates searching the most probable point analytically, to reduce the time cost. The results of design examples show that the proposed method provides efficiency curtailing the time for the optimization process and accuracy satisfying the specified reliability.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제30권9호
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• pp.1116-1123
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• 2006

In this study, the effective method for reliability estimation is proposed using tow-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. Kriging metamodel can be determined by appropriate sampling range and the number of sampling points. The first kriging metamodel is made based on the proposed sampling points. The advanced f'=rst order reliability method is applied to the first kriging metamodel to determine the reliability and most probable failure point(MPFP) approximately. Then, the second kriging metamodel is constructed using additional sampling points near the MPFP. These points are selected using genetic algorithm that have the maximum mean squared error. The Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to the second kriging metamodel to estimate the reliability. The proposed method is applied to numerical examples and the results are almost equal to the reference reliability.

• Advances in concrete construction
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.527-536
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• 2020

In this study, a process is proposed to calculate analytical correction values for the vertical shortening of all columns on all floors in a high-rise building that minimizes the error between the structural analysis predictions and values measured during construction. The weight ratio and the most probable value were accordingly considered based on the properties of the shortening value analyzed at several points in each construction stage and the distance between these measured points and unmeasured points at which the shortening was predicted. The effective range and shortening value normalization were considered using the column grouping concept. These tools were applied to calculate the error ratio between the predicted and measured values on a floor where a measured point exists, and then determine the estimated error ratio and estimated error value for the unmeasured point using this error ratio. At points on a floor where no measured point exists, the estimated error ratio and the estimated error value were calculated by applying the most probable value considering the weight ratio for the nearest floor where measured points exist. In this manner, the error values and estimated error values can be determined at all points in a structure. Then, the analytical correction value, defined as this error or estimated error value, was applied by adding it to the predicted value. Finally, the adequacy of the proposed correction method was verified against measurements by applying the analytical corrections to all unmeasured points based on the points where the measurement exists.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.99-106
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• 1998

This paper presents a procedure for determining the design rainfall depth and the design rainfall intensity at Incheon city area in Korea. In this study the eight probability distributions are considered to estimate the probable rainfall depths for 11 different durations. The Kolmogorov - Smirnov test and the Chi-square test are adopted to test each distribution. The probable rainfall intensity formulas are then determined by i) the least squares (LS) method, ii) the least median squares (LMS) method, iii) the reweighted least squares method based on the LMS (RLS), and iv) the constrained regression (CR) model. The Talbot, the Sherman, the Japanese, and the Unified type are considered to determine the best type for the Incheon station. The root mean squared (RMS) errors are computed to test the formulas derived by four methods. It is found that the Unified type is the most reliable and that all methods presented herein are acceptable for determining the coefficients of rainfall intensity formulas from an engineering point of view.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2000년도 가을 학술발표회논문집
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• pp.32-39
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• 2000

Probabilistic structural design optimization, which is characterized by the so-called probabilistic. constraints which introduce permissible probability of violation, is preferred to deterministic design optimization since unpredictable inherent uncertainties and randomness in structural and environmental properties are to be taken quantitatively into account by probabilistic design optimization. In this paper, the well-known reliability index based MPFP(Most Probable Failure Point) search approach and the newly introduced target performance measure based MPTP(Minimum Performance Target Point) search approach are summarized and compared. The present comparison focuses on the number of iterations required for the estimation of probabilistic constraints and a technique for improvement which removes exhaustive iterations is presented as well. A 10 bar truss problem is examined for this.

• 자원환경지질
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.335-343
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• 1996

The dipole-dipol electrical resistivity survey was conducted to investigate the probable contamination of the Han river by leachate from the near-by Nanjido Landfill. The survey line of 3 km was set along the unpaved road toward the Han river. For the convenience of the field work, the survey line was divided into four segments. The complete two-dimensional resistivity section was constructed by connecting the inversion result of each segment. Gravity survey was also carried out along the profile parallel to the resistivity line. Near surface resistivity generally appeared to be of very low value in most part of the survey area and the boundary between the alluvium layer and underlying basement rocks is well discriminated on the resistivity section. These results agree well with those of the preceding Schlumberger depth sounding made at adjacent area by Lee and fun (1995). The variation of thickness of the alluvium layer delineated by gravity anomaly profile also correlates well with the result of the resistivity survey on the qualitative basis. The problem of contamination by leachate from the Nanjido Landfill, where various waste materials have been dumped without any proper treatment facilities, has been remains unsolved yet. Therefore, we present the most probable passages of leachate flow based on the survey results and have briefly discussed about measure for contamination control. Considering the thickness of alluvium and the possible existence of fractured zone, the middle point between 1st and 2nd landfill and the midst of 1st landfill are the most hazardous regions to make leachates flow into the Han river. Since large amounts of leachates are observed from the test wells located on the lines extending from the border between the 1st and 2nd landfill and the middle of the lst landfill, contamination protection barriers are strongly recommended near these regions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.979-999
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• 2015

This paper proposes a novel reliability analysis method which computes reliability index, most probable point and probability of failure of uncertain systems more efficiently and accurately with compared to Monte Carlo, first-order reliability and response surface methods. It consists of Initial and Simulation steps. In Initial step, a number of space-filling designs are selected throughout the variables space, and then in Simulation step, performances of most of samples are estimated via interpolation using the space-filling designs, and only for a small number of the samples actual performance function is used for evaluation. In better words, doing so, we use a simple interpolation function called "reduced" function instead of the actual expensive-to-evaluate performance function of the system to evaluate most of samples. By using such a reduced function, total number of evaluations of actual performance is significantly reduced; hence, the method can be called Reduced Function Evaluations method. Reliabilities of six examples including series and parallel systems with multiple failure modes with truncated and/or non-truncated random variables are analyzed to demonstrate efficiency, accuracy and robustness of proposed method. In addition, a reliability-based design optimization algorithm is proposed and an example is solved to show its good performance.