• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monthly Average Temperature

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Development of Naïve-Bayes classification and multiple linear regression model to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate based on weather forecast data (기상예보자료 기반의 농업용저수지 저수율 전망을 위한 나이브 베이즈 분류 및 다중선형 회귀모형 개발)

  • Kim, Jin Uk;Jung, Chung Gil;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.839-852
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to predict monthly agricultural reservoir storage by developing weather data-based Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) with precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, and average wind speed. Using Naïve-Bayes classification, total 1,559 nationwide reservoirs were classified into 30 clusters based on geomorphological specification (effective storage volume, irrigation area, watershed area, latitude, longitude and frequency of drought). For each cluster, the monthly MLRM was derived using 13 years (2002~2014) meteorological data by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and reservoir storage rate data by KRC (Korea Rural Community). The MLRM for reservoir storage rate showed the determination coefficient ($R^2$) of 0.76, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.33% respectively. The MLRM was evaluated for 2 years (2015~2016) using 3 months weather forecast data of GloSea5 (GS5) by KMA. The Reservoir Drought Index (RDI) that was represented by present and normal year reservoir storage rate showed that the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) average hit rate was 0.80 using observed data and 0.73 using GS5 data in the MLRM. Using the results of this study, future reservoir storage rates can be predicted and used as decision-making data on stable future agricultural water supply.

Precipitation Anomalies Around King Sejong Station, Antarctica Associated with E1Niño/Southern Oscillation

  • Kwon, Tae-Yong;Lee, Bang-Yong
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2002
  • Precipitation variability around King Sejong Station related with E1 $Ni\~{n}o$/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated using the gauge-based monthly data of its neighboring stations. Though three Ant-arctic Stations of King Sejong (Korea), Frei (Chile), and Artigas (Uruguay) are all closely located within 10 km, their precipitation data show mostly insignificant positive or rather negative correlations among them in the annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation. This result indicates that there are locally large variations in the distribution of precipitation around King Sejong Station. The monthly data of Frei Station for 31 years (1970-2000) are analyzed for examining the ENSO signal in precipitation because of its longer precipitation record compared to other two stations. From the analysis of seasonal precipitation, it is seen that there is a tendency of less precipitation than the average during E1 $Ni\~{n}o$ events. This dryness is more distinct in fall to spring seasons, in which the precipitation decreases down to about 30% of seasonal mean precipitation. However, the precipitation signal related with La $Ni\~{n}a$ events is not significant. From the analysis of monthly precipitation, it is found that there is a strong negative correlation during 1980s and in the late 1990s, and a weak positive correlation in the early 1990s between normalized monthly precipitation at Frei Station and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the $Ni\~{n}o$ 3.4 region. However, this relation may be not applied over the region around King Sejong Station, but at only one station, Frei.

Monthly temperature forecasting using large-scale climate teleconnections and multiple regression models (대규모 기후 원격상관성 및 다중회귀모형을 이용한 월 평균기온 예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Nam Won;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.731-745
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the monthly temperature of the Han River basin was predicted by statistical multiple regression models that use global climate indices and weather data of the target region as predictors. The optimal predictors were selected through teleconnection analysis between the monthly temperature and the preceding patterns of each climate index, and forecast models capable of predicting up to 12 months in advance were constructed by combining the selected predictors and cross-validating the past period. Fore each target month, 1000 optimized models were derived and forecast ranges were presented. As a result of analyzing the predictability of monthly temperature from January 1992 to December 2020, PBIAS was -1.4 to -0.7%, RSR was 0.15 to 0.16, NSE was 0.98, and r was 0.99, indicating a high goodness-of-fit. The probability of each monthly observation being included in the forecast range was about 64.4% on average, and by month, the predictability was relatively high in September, December, February, and January, and low in April, August, and March. The predicted range and median were in good agreement with the observations, except for some periods when temperature was dramatically lower or higher than in normal years. The quantitative temperature forecast information derived from this study will be useful not only for forecasting changes in temperature in the future period (1 to 12 months in advance), but also in predicting changes in the hydro-ecological environment, including evapotranspiration highly correlated with temperature.

Analytical study of house wall and air temperature transients under on-off and proportional control for different wall type

  • Han, Kyu-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.70-81
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    • 2010
  • A mathematical model is formulated to study the effect of wall mass on the thermal performance of four different houses of different construction. This analytical study was motivated by the experimental work of Burch et al. An analytical solution of one -dimensional, linear, partial differential equation for wall temperature profiles and room air temperatures is obtained using the Laplace transform method. Typical Meteorological Year data are processed to yield hourly average monthly values. These discrete data are then converted to a continuous, time dependent form using a Fast Fourier Transform method. This study is conducted using weather data from four different locations in the United States: Albuquerque, New mexico; Miami, Florida; Santa Maria, California; and Washington D.C. for both winter and summer conditions. A computer code is developed to calculate the wall temperature profile, room air temperature, and energy consumption loads. Three sets of results are calculated one for no auxiliary energy and two for different control mechanism -- an on-off controller and a proportional controller. Comparisons are made for the cases of two controllers. Heavy weight houses with insulation in mild weather areas (such as August in Santa Maria, California) show a high comfort level. Houses using proportional control experience a higher comfort level in comparison to houses using on-off control. The result shows that there is an effect of mass on the thermal performance of a heavily constructed house in mild weather conditions.

Seasonal Variations in the Basal Metabolic Rate of Korean Airmen Volunteers (한국인 기초 신진대사량의 계절에 따른 변동)

  • Lee, Kae-Yol;Chee, Sun-Ho;Hong, Seung-Kil;Sung, Yang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 1972
  • Contrary to most of European and American investigators failed to find out the seasonal variations of basal metabolic rate in man, Japanese and Korean investigators reported the increase in winter, decrease in summer season. But the causes of variation were not found clearly. To find out whether metabolic acclimatization to climate could be arise or not in human being, the basal metabolic rate was determined monthly for a period of one year in Airmen volunteers who live in Seoul, with 9 l Collins spirometer. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The average ambient temperature was lowest in February $(-5.88^{\circ}C)$ and highest in July $(27.34^{\circ}C)$. 2. Basal metabolic rate was lowest in June and highest in December showing seasonal variations. Interestingly, the increase of basal metabolic rate followed after the drop of ambient temperature below $0^{\circ}C$ (December) and the decrease followed after the elevation of ambient temperature from optimum to hot (June) or cold to warm (March). 3, Mean skinfold thickness increased in spring, decreased in winter. 4. These findings indicate that the basal metabolic rate of Korean reveals the seasonal variation affected by ambient temperature highly.

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Evaluation of Urban Effects on Trends of Hydrometeorological Variables (수문기상요소 추세에 대한 도시화 영향분석)

  • Rim, Chang-Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.1B
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2010
  • This study aimed to figure out the effect of urbanization on meteorological variables (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation and precipitation) and reference evapotranspiration (RET). The research area of 6 urban areas and 6 rural areas near each urban area was selected. The monthly average daily data were collected from 12 ground stations operated by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the changes in climate variables were analyzed. Results of annual analysis have shown that the reference evapotranspiration (RET) tends to increase in urban areas while decreasing in rural areas. In particular, due to rising RET in urban areas and decreasing RET in rural areas, we can infer that the urbanization has affected to the RET. Results of monthly analysis showed that the urbanization has effects on the RET of July compared to other months (January, April and October). The yearly and monthly effects of urbanization on RET were closely related to solar radiation, relative humidity and change in temperature, and related to wind speed.

Mean Heat Flux at the Port of Yeosu (여수항의 평균 열플럭스)

  • Choi Yong-Kyu;Yang Jun-Hyuk
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.653-657
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    • 2006
  • Based on the monthly weather report of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and daily sea surface temperature (SST) data from National Fisheries Research and Development Institute (NFRDI) (1995-2004), mean heat fluxes were estimated at the port of Yeosu. Net heat flux was transported from the air to the sea surface during February to September, and it amounts to $205 Wm^{-2}$ in daily average value in May. During October to January, the transfer of net heat flux was conversed from the sea surface to the air with $-70 Wm^{-2}$ in minimum of daily average value in December. Short wave radiation was ranged from $167 Wm^{-2}$ in December to $300 Wm^{-2}$ in April. Long wave radiation (Sensible heat) was ranged from $27 (-14) Wm^{-2}$ in July to $90 (79) Wm^{-2}$ in December. Latent heat showed $42 Wm^{-2}$ with its minimum in July and $104 Wm^{-2}$ with its maximum in October in daily average value.

Total Phosphorus Removal in Cattail Wetland Purifying Effluent from a Night Soil Treatment Plant during Its Initial Operation (분뇨처리장 방류수를 정화하는 부들습지의 초기운영 단계에서 총인의 제거)

  • Yang, Hongmo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2005
  • Total phosphorus(TP) removal was examined in a surface-flow wetland constructed in April 2003 during its initial operating stage from June to November 2003. Its dimensions were 87mL by 14mW. It was a part of a four-wetland-cell treatment system constructed near the Kohung Estuarine Lake located in the southern part of Korea. Effluent from a night soil treatment plant was discharged into the wetland and purified effluent from the wetland was discharged into Sinyang Stream flowing into the Lake. Cattails(Typha angustifolia ) from natural wetlands were cut at about 40 cm height and transplanted into the wetland. An average of 25.0$m^3$/day of effluent flowed from the plant into the wetland. Water depth was maintained about 0.2m and hydraulic detention time was about 5.2 days. Average heights of the cattail stems in June and October 2003 were 47.2 and 164.6cm, respectively. The average number of stems was 10.2 stems/$m^2$ in June 2003 and 18.8 stems/$m^2$ in October 2003. Average temperature of influent and effluent ranged 23.4 and $24.2^{\circ}C$, respectively. The average TP concentrations of influent and effluent were about 1.31, 0.50mg/L, respectively. TP loading rate of influent into the wetland averaged 26.81mg/$m^2$, day and average TP loading rate of effluent was 10.04mg/$m^2$, day. Monthly average TP removal by the wetland during the warm growing season of cattails(June to September) ranged 16.28~19.57mg/$m^2$, day and during the cold senescent period (October to November) ranged 12.62~13.90mg/$m^2$, day. TP removal in the wetland continued during the cold winter months and was primarily done by sedimentation and precipitation of phosphorus rather than phosphorus absorption by cattails and microorganisms.

Influences of Temperature Change Rates and Impervious Surfaces on the Intra-City Climatic Patterns of Busan Metropolitan Area (부산광역시 국지적 기후 패턴에 대한 기온변화율과 불투수면의 영향)

  • PARK, Sun-Yurp
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.199-217
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    • 2016
  • Influences of seasonal warming and cooling rates on the annual temperature patterns were analyzed based on the meteorological data from 13 weather stations in Busan Metropolitan Area(BMA), Korea during 1997~2014. BMA daily temperature time-series was generalized by Fourier analysis, which mathematically summarizes complex, regularly sampled periodic records, such as air temperature, into a limited number of major wave components. Local monthly warming and cooling rates of BMA were strongly governed by the ocean effect within the city. March($1.121^{\circ}C/month$) and November(-$1.564^{\circ}C/month$) were the two months, when the most rapid warming and cooling rates were observed, respectively during the study period. Geographically, spring warming rates of inland increased more rapidly compared to coastal areas due to weaker ocean effect. As a result, the annual maximum temperature was reached earlier in a location, where the annual temperature range was larger, and therefore its July mean temperature and continentality were higher. Interannual analyses based on average temperature data of all weather stations also showed that the annual maximum temperature tended to occur earlier as the city's July mean temperature increased. Percent area of impervious surfaces, an indicator of urbanization, was another contributor to temperature change rates of the city. Annual mean temperature was positively correlated with percent area of impervious surfaces, and the variations of monthly warming and cooling rates also increased with percent area of impervious surfaces.

Effect of Climate Change for Diatom Bloom at Winter and Spring Season in Mulgeum Station of the Nakdong River, South Korea (낙동강 물금 지점의 겨울 및 봄철 식물플랑크톤 생물량에 대한 기후변화 영향)

  • Joung, Seung-Hyun;Park, Hae-Kyung;Lee, Hae-Jin;Lee, Soo-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.155-164
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    • 2013
  • To confirm the relationship between climate change and Stephanodiscus in Mulgeum station of Nakdong River, Korea, this study was conducted. The temperature in crease by climate change was observed in the study site, where the temperature was gradually increased in most seasons, except for summer season. The mass proliferation of Stephanodiscus constantly appeared in every year, especially between November and March, and when Stephanodiscus abundance was above 90% in phytoplankton biomass. Among this period, phytoplankton biomass was high related with water temperature ($r^2$=0.249, P<0.01) than nutrient factors such as nitrogen and phosphorus in the study site. Finally, temperature by climate change can be regarded as the affecting factor for chl. a variation, because temperature was strongly related with water temperature ($r^2$=0.748, P<0.01). From 1997 to 2010, the annual maximum phytoplankton biomass was recorded in the range of temperature from $4.8^{\circ}C$ to $8.4^{\circ}C$, and the range was regarded as the temperature condition for the optimal growth of Stephanodiscus in the study site. On the optimal growth temperature, the trend of monthly average temperature corresponded to the trend of chl. a variation from November to March. In future, the increase of temperature by climate change can prolong Stephanodiscus blooming period in winter and spring seasons.