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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.10.839

Development of Naïve-Bayes classification and multiple linear regression model to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate based on weather forecast data  

Kim, Jin Uk (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Jung, Chung Gil (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Lee, Ji Wan (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Kim, Seong Joon (Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Konkuk University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.51, no.10, 2018 , pp. 839-852 More about this Journal
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to predict monthly agricultural reservoir storage by developing weather data-based Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) with precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, and average wind speed. Using Naïve-Bayes classification, total 1,559 nationwide reservoirs were classified into 30 clusters based on geomorphological specification (effective storage volume, irrigation area, watershed area, latitude, longitude and frequency of drought). For each cluster, the monthly MLRM was derived using 13 years (2002~2014) meteorological data by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and reservoir storage rate data by KRC (Korea Rural Community). The MLRM for reservoir storage rate showed the determination coefficient ($R^2$) of 0.76, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.33% respectively. The MLRM was evaluated for 2 years (2015~2016) using 3 months weather forecast data of GloSea5 (GS5) by KMA. The Reservoir Drought Index (RDI) that was represented by present and normal year reservoir storage rate showed that the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) average hit rate was 0.80 using observed data and 0.73 using GS5 data in the MLRM. Using the results of this study, future reservoir storage rates can be predicted and used as decision-making data on stable future agricultural water supply.
Keywords
Reservoir storage rate; Naive-Bayes classification; Multiple linear regression model; GloSea5 (GS5);
Citations & Related Records
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