• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte-Carlo Method

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Variation Range for Maintenance Costs of Education Facilities Based on LCC Analysis (LCC기법을 통한 교육시설물의 유지관리비 변동범위 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Su;Kang, Hyun-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to analysis variation of range estimation for maintenance costs of education facilities based on LCC. The adapted research method selected three education facilities in Gyeonggi-Do region. On the basis of actual maintenance costs and analyzed estimation maintenance costs are compared for analyzing standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The research of this study are as follows: 1) The average actual maintenance costs for 1,317million won and each part of average ratio exterior 19%, interior 28%, electricity & fire fighting 22%, water supply & healthy 18%, heating & water supply 13%. 2)The average analysis maintenance costs for 1,920million won and each part of average ratio exterior 20%, interior 25%, electricity & fire fighting 22%, water supply & healthy 20%, heating &water supply 13%.. 3) The analysis variation of ranges for average costs 1,619million won for minimum costs 1,409million, maximum costs 1,813million won.

Asymptotic Variance of Flood Quantiles from the Generalized Logistic Distribution using the Method of Maximum Likelihood (Generalized Logistic 분포형의 최우도법을 이용한 확률홍수량의 근사적 분산)

  • Shin, Hong-Joon;Heo, Jun-Haeng;Kim, Young-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1522-1526
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    • 2007
  • 최근 영국의 Institute of Hydrology에서는 Generalized logistic (GL) 분포형을 홍수빈도해석시 GEV 분포형을 대체하는 분포형으로 추천한 바 있으며, 그로 인해 GL 분포형의 사용이 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 하지만 아직 그 사용빈도에 반하여 분포형 자체의 특성, 그 중에서도 확률홍수량의 근사적 분산에 관한 연구는 거의 이루어지지 않았다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 최우도법을 이용하여 GL 분포형의 확률홍수량에 대한 근사적 분산에 관한 연구를 수행하였으며, 이를 표본 크기, 재현기간, 매개변수들의 함수로 나타내었다. 또한 확률홍수량의 근사적 분산의 적용성을 검토하기 위해 Monte Carlo 모의실험을 수행하였으며, 모의실험은 형상 매개변수$(\beta)$$\pm0.5$이면 gamma function으로 인하여 표본 크기에 관계없이 분산값이 무한대에 가까워지므로 형상매개변수의 범위는 $-0.5{\leq}{\beta}{\leq}+0.5$로 제한하였다. 모의결과 최우도법에 의해 계산된 분산식은 형상매개변수 $-0.25{\leq}{\beta}{\leq}+0.5$의 범위에서 비교적 잘 맞는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 기존에 알려진 대로 표본크기가 크면 클수록 정확해지는 것을 알 수 있다. 또한 표본크기가 작은 경우 형상매개변수 전 범위에서 정확도가 떨어지는 것을 확인할 수 있으며, 최우도법의 경우 표본크기가 작은 경우를 제외하고 $-0.25{\leq}{\beta}{\leq}+0.5$ 범위에서 quantile 산정시 quantile이 약간 과다추정되는 경향이 있는 것을 알 수 있으며, 이는 분산이 과다 추정되는 결과를 초래하며 이로 인해 해석해보다 약간씩 큰 값을 나타내는 것으로 판단되었다..이 극단적인 선정적인 폭력성에 탐닉하게 되는 경향이 있다. 현실은 결코 아름답지 못하고, 행복하게 살 수 없다는 것에 대한 깨달음에서 기인한다. 욕구불만의 강도가 심해질수록 폭력성은 더욱 강하게 나타나는데 개인에게서 뿐만 아니라 가족, 동료, 사회 단체나 종교, 국가간에도 집단적으로도 발생하게 된다. 사회적으로 볼 때 폭력은 용인되는 것이 아니므로 도덕적으로 절제를 하거나 상대방과 적절한 타협과 조정을 필요로 한다. 그러나 절제의 한계를 넘어선다고 생각되거나, 조정의 노력이 불가능하거나, 실패했을 때 폭력적인 행동으로 나타나게 된다. 리차즈(I.A Richards)는 분노와 공포는 일단 겉잡을 수 없는 경향이 있다고 하면서 오늘날 폭력에 대한 요구가 일상의 정서 생활에 있어, 억압을 통한, 빈곤함을 반영하고 있지 않은지 생각해봐야 할 것이라고 충고한다. 조성 가이드라인(안)을 제시하였다.EX>$\ulcorner$세종실록$\lrcorner$(世宗實錄) $\ulcorner$지리지$\lrcorner$(地理志)와의 비교를 해보면 상 중 하품의 통합 9개소가 삭제되어 있고, $\ulcorner$동국여지승람$\lrcorner$(東國與地勝覽) 에서는 자기소와 도기소의 위치가 완전히 삭제되어 있다. 이러한 현상은 첫째, 15세기 중엽 경제적 태평과 함께 백자의 수요 생산이 증가하자 군신의 변별(辨別)과 사치를 이유로 강력하게 규제하여 백자의 확대와 발전에 걸림돌이 되었다. 둘째, 동기(銅器)의 대체품으로 자기를 만들어 충당해야할 강제성 당위성 상실로 인한 자기수요 감소를 초래하였을 것으로 사료된다. 셋째, 경기도 광주에서 백자관요가 운영되었으므로 지방인 상주지역에도 더 이상 백자를 조달받을 필요가 없이, 일반 지방관아와 서민들의

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Feasibility study of a dedicated nuclear desalination system: Low-pressure Inherent heat sink Nuclear Desalination plant (LIND)

  • Kim, Ho Sik;NO, Hee Cheon;Jo, YuGwon;Wibisono, Andhika Feri;Park, Byung Ha;Choi, Jinyoung;Lee, Jeong Ik;Jeong, Yong Hoon;Cho, Nam Zin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.293-305
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we suggest the conceptual design of a water-cooled reactor system for a low-pressure inherent heat sink nuclear desalination plant (LIND) that applies the safety-related design concepts of high temperature gas-cooled reactors to a water-cooled reactor for inherent and passive safety features. Through a scoping analysis, we found that the current LIND design satisfied several essential thermal-hydraulic and neutronic design requirements. In a thermal-hydraulic analysis using an analytical method based on the Wooton-Epstein correlation, we checked the possibility of safely removing decay heat through the steel containment even if all the active safety systems failed. In a neutronic analysis using the Monte Carlo N-particle transport code, we estimated a cycle length of approximately 6 years under 200 $MW_{th}$ and 4.5% enrichment. The very long cycle length and simple safety features minimize the burdens from the operation, maintenance, and spent-fuel management, with a positive impact on the economic feasibility. Finally, because a nuclear reactor should not be directly coupled to a desalination system to prevent the leakage of radioactive material into the desalinated water, three types of intermediate systems were studied: a steam producing system, a hot water system, and an organic Rankine cycle system.

Economic Evaluation of Port Hinterlands Using Real Option -Focusing on the Case Study for Hinterland of Busan New Port- (실물옵션을 이용한 항만배후단지의 가치평가 -부산신항 배후단지 사례분석을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, MyoungHee;Lee, Kihwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.235-257
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    • 2012
  • Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

Multimodal Emotional State Estimation Model for Implementation of Intelligent Exhibition Services (지능형 전시 서비스 구현을 위한 멀티모달 감정 상태 추정 모형)

  • Lee, Kichun;Choi, So Yun;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2014
  • Both researchers and practitioners are showing an increased interested in interactive exhibition services. Interactive exhibition services are designed to directly respond to visitor responses in real time, so as to fully engage visitors' interest and enhance their satisfaction. In order to install an effective interactive exhibition service, it is essential to adopt intelligent technologies that enable accurate estimation of a visitor's emotional state from responses to exhibited stimulus. Studies undertaken so far have attempted to estimate the human emotional state, most of them doing so by gauging either facial expressions or audio responses. However, the most recent research suggests that, a multimodal approach that uses people's multiple responses simultaneously may lead to better estimation. Given this context, we propose a new multimodal emotional state estimation model that uses various responses including facial expressions, gestures, and movements measured by the Microsoft Kinect Sensor. In order to effectively handle a large amount of sensory data, we propose to use stratified sampling-based MRA (multiple regression analysis) as our estimation method. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected 602,599 responses and emotional state data with 274 variables from 15 people. When we applied our model to the data set, we found that our model estimated the levels of valence and arousal in the 10~15% error range. Since our proposed model is simple and stable, we expect that it will be applied not only in intelligent exhibition services, but also in other areas such as e-learning and personalized advertising.

Study on the neutron imaging detector with high spatial resolution at China spallation neutron source

  • Jiang, Xingfen;Xiu, Qinglei;Zhou, Jianrong;Yang, Jianqing;Tan, Jinhao;Yang, Wenqin;Zhang, Lianjun;Xia, Yuanguang;Zhou, Xiaojuan;Zhou, Jianjin;Zhu, Lin;Teng, Haiyun;Yang, Gui-an;Song, Yushou;Sun, Zhijia;Chen, Yuanbo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.1942-1946
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    • 2021
  • Gadolinium oxysulfide (GOS) is regarded as a novel scintillator for the realization of ultra-high spatial resolution in neutron imaging. Monte Carlo simulations of GOS scintillator show that the capability of its spatial resolution is towards the micron level. Through the time-of-flight method, the light output of a GOS scintillator was measured to be 217 photons per captured neutron, ~100 times lower than that of a ZnS/LiF:Ag scintillator. A detector prototype has been developed to evaluate the imaging solution with the GOS scintillator by neutron beam tests. The measured spatial resolution is ~36 ㎛ (28 line pairs/mm) at the modulation transfer function (MTF) of 10%, mainly limited by the low experimental collimation ratio of the beamline. The weak light output of the GOS scintillator requires an enormous increase in the neutron flux to reduce the exposure time for practical applications.

Average Data Rate Analysis for Data Exchanging Nodes via Relay by Concurrent Transmission (데이타 교환 노드의 동시 전송 릴레이 이용을 위한 평균 데이터 전송률 분석)

  • Kwon, Taehoon
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.638-644
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    • 2018
  • Relay systems have recently gained attentions because of its capability of cell coverage extension and the power gain as the one of key technologies for 5G. Relays can be exploited for small-cell base stations and the autonomous network, where communication devices communicate with each other cooperatively. Therefore, the relay technology is expected to enable the low power and large capacity communication. In order to maximize the benefits of using a limited number of relays, the efficient relay selection method is required. Especially, when two nodes exchange their data with each other via relay, the relay selection can maximize the average data rate by the spatial location of the relay. For this purpose, the average data rate is analyzed first according to the relay selection. In this paper, we analyzed the average data rate when two nodes exchange their data via dual-hop decode and forward relaying considering the interference by the concurrent transmission under Nakagami-m fading channel. The correctness of the analysis is verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the concurrent transmission is superior to the non-concurrent transmission in the high required data rate region rather than in the low required data rate region.

Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on External Construction Site by Applying Probabilistic Method (확률론적 기법을 활용한 건설현장 외부 인명피해 정량화 모델 개발)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Son, Ki-Young;Kim, Ji-Myong;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.611-619
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    • 2018
  • The researches have only conducted regarding construction safety management and risk on interior construction site(workers) and is insufficient about the exterior construction site(third party). As a result, ordinary people who were near construction sites have injured and hold a negative view when they think about the construction industry because construction industry have been exposed to them having a high accidents rate through media. In addition, the importance of industrial disaster prevention is emphasized at this point in time, the overall safety management system should be constructed with considering construction site external(third human) for improving the negative image of the construction industry among ordinary people. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the quantification model of human accident utilizing the insurance claim payout occurred construction site exterior(third party). In the future, it can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist in construction site interior exterior and development for forecasting control system of human accident.

The comparison of the BAD and the BCD methods in a P300-based concealed information test (P300 숨긴정보검사에서 BAD 방법과 BCD 방법의 비교)

  • Eom, Jin-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.151-169
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    • 2021
  • In the P300-based concealed information test, most commonly used methods to detect whether a subject is lying are the bootstrapped amplitude difference (BAD) and the bootstrap correlation difference (BCD). Previous studies comparing the accuracy of the two methods reported inconsistent results. Most studies showed that the BAD is more accurate than the BCD, but some studies found that the BCD had a higher accuracy rate than the BAD. The purpose of the study is to identify conditions where the each method has higher accuracy compared to the other. In the result of Monte Carlo study, the false alarm rate of the BAD was generally higher than that of the BCD, and the hit rate of the BAD was higher than that of the BCD. Compared to the condition where the P300 latencies of probe and irrelevant were similar, the hit rate of the BCD was decreased when the P300 latency of probe was about 100 ms faster, and the hit rate of the BCD was increased when the P300 latency of probe was about 100 ms slower. When the P300 amplitude of the probe was slightly larger than that of the irrelevant and the P300 latency of probe was longer than that of target, the hit rate of the BCD was higher than that of the BAD. The reason why the false alarm rate of the BAD is higher than that of BCD and why the hit rate of the BCD is affected by the P300 latency of the probe were discussed.

A Study on Stock Assessment of Japanese Flying Squid (Todarodes pacificus) in Korea·China·Japan Waters (한·중·일 해역의 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 자원평가 연구)

  • Sungsu Lim;Do-Hoon Kim;Jae-Beum Hong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.451-480
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    • 2022
  • The Japanese Flying Squid (Todarodes pacificus) is a commercially important species in South Korea and the most popular species among consumers. However commercial catches of Japanese Flying Squid have been declining since 2000. In this study, we conducted a stock assessment to identify stock status. This study differed from previous studies in two aspects: a greater amount of available fishing effort data was used, and data from China, Japan, and Korea were included. A CMSY (catch-maximum sustainable yield) model was used to estimate MSY, biomass and exploitation with Bayesian state-space implementation of the Schaefer (BSS) model for the method of stock assessment, and evaluated the species by dividing into two groups, 'Korea' and ' Korea·China·Japan'. In all cases, Japanese flying squid biomass showed a general decreasing trend. Additionally, the biomass estimated for 2020 was lower than the biomass necessary to achieve the maximum sustainable yield. To manage Japanese Flying Squid effectively, it is necessary to strengthen the resource management strategies of individual countries and prepare a cooperative plan among countries.