• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte-Carlo 모의법

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L-Estimation for the Parameter of the AR(l) Model (AR(1) 모형의 모수에 대한 L-추정법)

  • Han Sang Moon;Jung Byoung Cheal
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.43-56
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    • 2005
  • In this study, a robust estimation method for the first-order autocorrelation coefficient in the time series model following AR(l) process with additive outlier(AO) is investigated. We propose the L-type trimmed least squares estimation method using the preliminary estimator (PE) suggested by Rupport and Carroll (1980) in multiple regression model. In addition, using Mallows' weight function in order to down-weight the outlier of X-axis, the bounded-influence PE (BIPE) estimator is obtained and the mean squared error (MSE) performance of various estimators for autocorrelation coefficient are compared using Monte Carlo experiments. From the results of Monte-Carlo study, the efficiency of BIPE(LAD) estimator using the generalized-LAD to preliminary estimator performs well relative to other estimators.

A Study on Uncertainty of Risk of Failure Based on Gumbel Distribution (Gumbel 분포형을 이용한 위험도에 관한 불확실성 해석)

  • Heo Jun-Haeng;Lee Dong-Jin;Shin Hong-Joon;Nam Woo-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.8 s.169
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    • pp.659-668
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    • 2006
  • The uncertainty of the risk of failure of hydraulic structures can be determined by estimating the variance of the risk of failure based on the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood assuming that the underlying model is the Gumbel distribution. In this paper, the variance of the risk of failure was derived. Monte Carlo simulation was peformed to verify the characteristics of the derived formulas for various sample size, design life, nonexceedance probability, and variation coefficient. As the results, PWM showed the smallest relative bias and root mean square error than the others while ML showed the smallest ones for relatively large sample siBes regardless of design life and nonexceedance probability. Also, it was found that variation coefficient does not effect on the relative bias and relative root mean square error.

Measurement of the Phase Errors of AWG by Using the Monte-Carlo Analysis (몬테카를로 분석 방법을 이용한 AWG의 위상 오차 측정)

  • Go, Chun-Soo;Oh, Yong-Ho;Lim, Sung-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.207-213
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    • 2011
  • We propose a new method to measure the phase errors of an AWG(arrayed waveguide grating) through Monte-Carlo analysis. In the frequency domain method, we used the Monte-Carlo method to fit the theory to the experimental results. The phase and amplitude values are obtained from the fitted theory. To verify our method, we carried out a simulation. Some phase errors were included to make a virtual interferogram and we measured the actual AWG phase errors from it by our method. The results show that our method gives good results if the laser tuning range is larger than 1.7 times of the AWG FSR(free spectral range) and if the phase errors are within ${\pm}50^{\circ}$.

A Study on the Estimation of Extreme Quantile of Probability Distribution (확률 분포형의 극치 수문량 예측 능력 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Jinseok;Shin, Hongjoon;Ahn, Hyunjun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.399-400
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    • 2017
  • 홍수나 가뭄 등 극치 현상의 통계분석 및 빈도해석에 있어 극치분포형이 널리 사용되고 있으며, 이러한 극치분포형의 특성을 이해하기 위해서는 분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리(right tail) 부분 특성을 자세히 분석할 필요가 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 Monte Carlo 모의를 통하여 다양한 극치분포형의 오른쪽 꼬리 부분의 통계적 특성 및 그 예측 능력을 연구하였다. 극치분포형으로는 우리나라 확률수문량 산정에 널리 활용되고 있는 generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel, generalized logistic 분포를 사용하였으며, 매개변수 산정 방법으로는 확률가중모멘트법을 사용하였다. 모의실험의 모분포로는 수문빈도해석에서 많이 사용되는 GEV 분포를 사용하였고, 30년 이상 자료를 보유한 기상청 지점 자료의 왜곡도를 조사하여 모의실험에 사용되는 모집단의 왜곡도로 가정하여 표본 자료를 발생시켰다. 예측 능력의 평가는 재현기간 10~1000년의 확률수문량을 왜곡도계수를 고려한 GEV 도시위치공식을 이용하여 GEV 확률지에 도시하고, 평균제곱근오차(root mean square error), 편의(bias), 평균상대오차(mean relative difference), 평균절대상대오차(mean absolute relative difference)를 이용하여 최적 분포형을 선정함으로써 이루어진다. 또한 예측 능력 평가결과의 타당성 확인을 위해 극치분포형의 적합정도를 잘 나타낸다고 알려진 modified Anderson-Darling 방법의 검정결과와 비교하여 적절성을 확인하였다.

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Nonparametric Method in One-way Layout for Umbrella Alternatives based on Placement (일원배치법에서 Umbrella Alternatives에 대한 위치를 이용한 비모수 검정법)

  • Lee, Hyejung;Kim, Dongjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1181-1189
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    • 2015
  • The treatment effect in clinical tests depending on dose of the drug; however, it can show a decreasing trend in fixed dose level due to side effects. The trend is known as an umbrella pattern; in addition, the method for the umbrella alternative is quite useful when the tendency is predicted in advance. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric method of umbrella alternatives for a one-way layout by using linear placement described in Orban and Wolfe (1982). The Monte Carlo simulation is adapted to compare the power of proposed procedure with previous methods.

Nonparmetric Method for Identifying Effective and Safe Doses using Placement (유효하고 안전한 용량 결정에 위치를 이용한 비모수적 방법)

  • Kim, Sunhye;Kim, Dongjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.1197-1205
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    • 2014
  • Typical clinical dose development studies consist of the comparison of several doses of a drug with a placebo. The primary interest is to find therapeutic window that satisfying both efficacy and safety. In this paper, we propose nonparametric method for identifying effective and safe doses in linear placement using score function. The Monte Carlo simulation is adapted to estimate the power and the family-wise error rate(FWE) of proposed procedure are compared with previous methods.

Boostrap testing for independence in Marshall and Olkin's model under random censorship (임의중단된 이변량 지수모형의 독립성에 대한 붓스트랩 검정)

  • 김달호;조길호;조장식
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, we consider the Marshall and Olkin's bivariate exponential model under random censorship for the distribution of failure times of a system with two components. We propose a bootstrap testing procedure for independence and compare the powers of it with other tests via Monte Carlo simulation.

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Nonparametric method in one-way layout based on joint placement (일원배치법에서 결합위치를 이용한 비모수 검정법)

  • Jeon, Kyoung-Ah;Kim, Dongjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.729-739
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    • 2016
  • Kruskal and Wallis (1952) proposed a nonparametric method to test the differences between more than three independent treatments. This procedure uses rank in mixed sample combined with more than three unlike populations. This paper proposes a the new procedure based on joint placements for a one-way layout as extension of the joint placements described in Chung and Kim (2007). A Monte Carlo simulation study is adapted to compare the power of the proposed method with previous methods.

Nonparametric Procedures for Finding the Minimum Effective Dose in Each of Several Group (다중 그룹 상황에서의 최소 효과 용량을 정하는 비모수적 검정법)

  • Bae, Su-Hyun;Kim, Dong-Jae
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2012
  • The primary interest of drug development studies is to estimate the smallest dose that shows a significant difference from the zero-dose control. The smallest dose is called the Minimum Effective dose(MED). In this paper, we suggest a nonparametric procedure to simultaneously find the MED of each group based on placements. The Monte Carlo simulation is adapted to estimate the power and the family-wise error rate(FWE) of the new procedures with those of discussed nonparametric tests to find MED.

Nonparametric method using linear statistics in analysis of covariance model (공분산분석에서 선형위치통계량을 이용한 비모수 검정법)

  • Choi, Yoonjung;Kim, Dongjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.427-439
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    • 2017
  • Quade (1967) proposed RANK ANCOVA, which is a nonparametric method to test differences between treatments when there are covariates. Hwang and Kim (2012) also proposed a joint placement test on covariate-adjusted residuals. In this paper, we proposed a new nonparametric method to control the effect of covariate on a response variable that uses linear statistics on covariate adjusted-residuals. The score function used in the linear statistics was proposed by Jeon and Kim (2016). Monte Carlo simulation is also conducted to compare the empirical powers of the proposed method with previous methods.