• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte-Carlo 기법

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Simplified Method for Estimation of Mean Residual Life of Rubble-mound Breakwaters (경사제의 평균 잔류수명 추정을 위한 간편법)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2022
  • A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.

Backhaul traffic reduction scheme in intra-aircraft wireless networks (항공기내 무선 네트워크에서 백홀 트래픽 감소 기법)

  • Cho, Moon-Je;Jung, Bang Chul;Park, Pangun;Chang, Woohyuk;Ban, Tae-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.20 no.9
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    • pp.1704-1709
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we propose efficient uplink data transmission method in ultra dense wireless networks as in intra-aircraft, where large-scale APs and wireless sensors are deployed. In the ultra dense wireless networks, a performance degradation is inevitable due to the inter-AP interference. However, the performance degradation can be avoided if a scheduling algorithm can estimate the amount of interference caused by each wireless sensor and reflects it. SGIR (Signal-to-Generating Interference Ratio) based scheduling algorithms is a typical example. Unfortunately, the scheduling algorithms based on the interference caused by wireless sensors necessarily yield large scale exchange of information through backhaul which connects APs. Therefore, we, in this paper, propose a novel scheme which can dramatically reduce the amount of information which are exchanged through backhaul connection. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the proposed scheme can reduce the amount of backhaul traffic by 27% without loss of data transmission rate.

Kinematic Analysis of Plane Failure for Rock Slope Using GIS and Probabilistic Analysis Method (GIS와 확률론적 해석 기법을 기반으로 한 평면파괴의 운동학적 안정성 해석)

  • Lee, Seok Hwan;Park, Hyuck Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2014
  • The stability of rock slope is mainly controlled by the orientation and shear strength of discontinuties in rock mass. Therefore, in kinematic analysis, the orientation of the combination of discontinuities and slope face is examined to determine if certain modes of failure can be occurred. In previous kinematic analysis, a representative orientation of the slope face and mean orientation of discontinuity set were used as input parameters. However, since the orientations of slope face varies according to locations of measurement, the representative slope face orientation could cause misunderstanding for kinematic instability. In addition, since the orientations of each discontinuity are scattered in the same discontinuity set, there is the possibility that uncertainties are involved in the procedure of kinematic analysis. Therefore, in this study, the detailed digital topographic map was used to obtain the orientation of slope face. In addition, the probabilistic analysis approach was utilized to deal properly with the uncertainties in discontinuity orientation. The proposed approach was applied to steep slopes in mountain road located in Baehuryeong, Chunncheon city, Gangwon-Do. The analysis results obtained from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis were compared to check the feasibility of proposed the analysis.

Development for Improvement Methodology of Radiation Shielding Evaluation Efficiency about PWR SNF Interim Storage Facility (PWR 사용후핵연료 중간저장시설의 몬테칼로 차폐해석 방법에 대한 계산효율성 개선방안 연구)

  • Kim, Taeman;Seo, Myungwhan;Cho, Chunhyung;Cha, Gilyong;Kim, Soonyoung
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.92-100
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    • 2015
  • For the purpose of improving the efficiency of the radiation impact assessment of dry interim storage facilities for the spent nuclear fuel of pressurized water reactors (PWRs), radiation impact assessment was performed after the application of sensitivity assessment according to the radiation source term designation method, development of a 2-step calculation technique, and cooling time credit. The present study successively designated radiation source terms in accordance with the cask arrangement order in the shielding building, assessed sensitivity, which affects direct dose, and confirmed that the radiation dosage of the external walls of the shielding building was dominantly affected by the two columns closest to the internal walls. In addition, in the case in which shielding buildings were introduced into storage facilities, the present study established and assessed the 2-step calculation technique, which can reduce the immense computational analysis time. Consequently, results similar to those from existing calculations were derived in approximately half the analysis time. Finally, when radiation source terms were established by adding the storage period of the storage casks successively stored in the storage facilities and the cooling period of the spent nuclear fuel, the radiation dose of the external walls of the buildings was confirmed to be approximately 40% lower than the calculated values; the cooling period was established as being identical. The present study was conducted to improve the efficiency of the Monte Carlo shielding analysis method for radiation impact assessment of interim storage facilities. If reliability is improved through the assessment of more diverse cases, the results of the present study can be used for the design of storage facilities and the establishment of site boundary standards.

Average Data Rate Analysis for Data Exchanging Nodes via Relay by Concurrent Transmission (데이타 교환 노드의 동시 전송 릴레이 이용을 위한 평균 데이터 전송률 분석)

  • Kwon, Taehoon
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.638-644
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    • 2018
  • Relay systems have recently gained attentions because of its capability of cell coverage extension and the power gain as the one of key technologies for 5G. Relays can be exploited for small-cell base stations and the autonomous network, where communication devices communicate with each other cooperatively. Therefore, the relay technology is expected to enable the low power and large capacity communication. In order to maximize the benefits of using a limited number of relays, the efficient relay selection method is required. Especially, when two nodes exchange their data with each other via relay, the relay selection can maximize the average data rate by the spatial location of the relay. For this purpose, the average data rate is analyzed first according to the relay selection. In this paper, we analyzed the average data rate when two nodes exchange their data via dual-hop decode and forward relaying considering the interference by the concurrent transmission under Nakagami-m fading channel. The correctness of the analysis is verified by the Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the concurrent transmission is superior to the non-concurrent transmission in the high required data rate region rather than in the low required data rate region.

Financial Analysis Model Development by Applying Optimization Method in Residential Officetel (최적화 기법을 활용한 주거용 오피스텔 수지분석 모델 개발)

  • Jang, Jun-Ho;Ha, Sun-Geun;Son, Ki-Young;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2019
  • The domestic construction industry is changing according to its preference for demand and supply along with urbanization and economic development. Accordingly, initial risk assessments is more important than before. In particular, demand for lease-based investment products such as commercial and office buildings has surged as a substitute for financial products due to low interest rates of banks. Therefore, the objective is to suggest a basic study on financial analysis model development by applying optimization method in residential officetel. To achieve the objective, first, the previous studies are investigated. Second, the causal loop diagram is structured based on the collected data. Third, the system dynamics method is used to develop cost-income simulation and optimization model sequentially. Finally, the developed model was verifed through analyzing a case project. In the future, the proposed model can be helpful whether or not conduct execution of an officetel development project to the decision makers.

Development of Risk Analysis Structure for Large-scale Underground Construction in Urban Areas (도심지 대규모 지하공사의 리스크 분석 체계 개발)

  • Seo, Jong-Won;Yoon, Ji-Hyeok;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Jee, Sung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2010
  • Systematic risk management is necessary in grand scaled urban construction because of the existence of complicated and various risk factors. Problems of obstructions, adjacent structures, safety, environment, traffic and geotechnical properties need to be solved because urban construction is progressed in limited space not as general earthwork. Therefore the establishment of special risk management system is necessary to manage not only geotechnical properties but also social and cultural uncertainties. This research presents the technique analysis by the current state of risk management technique. Risk factors were noticed and the importance of each factor was estimated through survey. The systemically categorized database was established. Risk extraction module, matrix and score module were developed based on the database. Expected construction budget and time distribution can be computed by Monte Carlo analysis of probabilities and influences. Construction budgets and time distributions of before and after response can be compared and analyzed 80 the risks are manageable for entire whole construction time. This system will be the foundation of standardization and integration. Procurement, efficiency improvement, effective time and resource management are available through integrated management technique development and application. Conclusively decrease in cost and time is expected by systemization of project management.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of a Cable-Stayed Bridge Based on the Prediction Method for the Combination of Failure Modes (붕괴모드 조합 예측법에 의한 PSC사장교의 위험도평가)

  • Park, Mi-Yun;Cho, Hyo-Nam;Cho, Taejun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4A
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    • pp.647-657
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    • 2006
  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of a Cable Stayed Bridge, which is Prestressed Concrete Bridge consisted of cable and plate girders, based on the method of Working Stress Design and Strength Design. Component reliabilities of cables and girders have been evaluated using the response surface of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear, positive and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses for this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to obtain through Monte-Carlo Simulations. or through First Order Second Moment Method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms of implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system consisting of cables and plate girder is changed into series connection system and the result of system reliability of total structure is presented. As a system reliability, the upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts compared with the previous permutation method or system reliability analysis method, which calculates upper and lower bound failure probabilities.

Estimation of Life Expectancy and Budget Demands based on Maintenance Strategy (도로포장 유지보수 전략에 따른 기대수명과 보수비용산정)

  • Han, Dae-Seok;Do, Myung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.4D
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    • pp.345-356
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    • 2012
  • Road pavement requires repetitive maintenance works to maintain satisfactory service level to the public. However, the repetitive maintenance works upon deteriorated pavement structure make negative effects to deterioration speed. It often leads to inefficient use of limited budget. For that reason, the pavements require reconstruction work to recover their original performance. Recently, construction demands in the Korean national highway have already been reached to maximum level, and the aged pavements start to demand much more reconstruction works. However, in the real world, road agencies have often been confused when they determine maintenance design for such aged road sections due to budget constraint. It is because there is no reliable long-term maintenance strategy that supports their decision making. To support their decision making, this paper aimed to suggest the best maintenance strategy considering changing process of pavement performance by repetitive maintenance works. As an analysis method, probability distribution and hazard function to estimate the life expectancy were adopted, and then the results were used for long-term life cycle cost analysis with deterministic or Monte-Carlo method under various scenarios. As an empirical study, the Korean national highway data that has long-maintenance history data since 1986 has been applied. Last, this paper considered quality assurance of maintenance work to improve maintenance quality. These could be important information as a part of long-term maintenance strategy of pavement.

Patient Radiation Exposure Dose Evaluation of Whole Spine Scanography Due to Exposure Direction (Whole Spine Scanography의 검사방향에 따른 환자 선량 평가)

  • Kim, Jung-Su;Seo, Deok-Nam;Kwon, Soon-Mu;Kim, Jung-Min
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2015
  • Whole spine scanography (WSS) is a radiological examination that exposes the whole body of the individual being examined to x-ray radiation. WSS is often repeated during the treatment period, which results in a much greater radiation exposure than that in routine x-ray examinations. The aims of the current study were to evaluate the patient dose of WSS using computer simulation, image magnification and angulation of phantom image using different patient position. We evaluated the effective dose(ED) of 23 consecutive patients (M : F = 13:10) who underwent WSS, based on the automatic image pasting method for multiple exposure digital radiography. The Anterior-Posterior position(AP) and Posterior-Anterior position( PA) projection EDs were evaluated based on the PC based Monte Carlo simulation. We measured spine transverse process distance and angulation using DICOM measurement. For all patient, the average ED was 0.069 mSv for AP position and 0.0361 mSv for PA position. AP position calculated double exposure then PA position. For male patient, the average ED was 0.089 mSv(AP) and 0.050 mSv(PA). For female patient, the average ED was 0.0431 mSv(AP) and 0.026 mSv(PA). The transverse process of PA spine image measured 5% higher than AP but angulation of transverse process was no significant differences. In clinical practice, just by change the patient position was conformed to reduce the ED of patient. Therefor we need to redefine of protocol for digital radiography such as WSS. whole spine scanography, effective dose, patient exposure dose, exposure direction. protocol optimization.