• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.155-165
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• 1995

Fluid flow studies of fractured rocks require three-dimensional modeling of the fracture system. The stochastic discrete fracture models constructed by Monte Carlo simulation technique were applied to the analysis of groundwater flow and mass transport in fractured rock for the assessment of tightness criteria of underground LPG storage cavern. The parameters that most affect the conceptual discrete fracture modeling proved either fracture orientation or size and on the fract'lre flow interpretation proved conductive fracture intensity. The fracture transmissivity played important role in solute transport in fractured rock simulated by particle tracking approach. It was partly recognized that the calibrated stochastic discrete fracture model can be used for the tightness criteria of underground LPG storage cavern.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.145-152
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• 1996

In this study, the technique to evaluate the extreme design wave height of certain return period is developed from the given measured or hindcasted sea state data of concerned area for limited period. By using the order statistics and Monte Carlo Simulation method, the best fit probability distribution function with proper parameters describing the given wave height data is chosen, from which extreme design wave height can be predicted by extrapolation to the desired return period. The fitness and the confidence limit of the chosen probability function are also discussed. Application calculation is carried out for the wave height data given by applying the Wilson wave model theory to major 50 typhoon wind data affecting Korean South coast during the year from 1938 to 1987.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.206-206
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• 2018

설마천 및 청미천 시험유역에서 측정된 증발산량은 강수량 대비 약 20%이상으로 유출해석에 있어 큰 부분을 차지하고 있다. 시험유역 이외의 유역에서는 증발산 측정자료 확보가 어려워 이와 관련된 연구는 측정자료의 확보가 가능한 지역 혹은 기후변화자료를 이용한 연구가 주를 이루고 있다. 특히, 전국을 대상으로 하는 장기유출해석에 있어 유출량 자료를 활용하여 증발산량까지 추정하는 것에는 한계가 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 이에 대한 대안으로 하천의 유출량과 WHAT모형을 이용하여 계산된 기저유출량을 동시에 고려하여 증발산량의 예측능력을 향상할 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다. 유출해석모형으로는 전국유역조사에서 활용되고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 증발산량 계산을 위하여 다양한 기법의 활용이 가능한 K-BASIN(PRMS)모형을 활용하였고, 매개변수 최적화를 위하여 하천유량뿐만아니라 기저유출량을 대상으로 Monte-Carlo 시뮬레이션을 수행하였다. 용담댐 시험유역에 적용하여 각 샘플의 하천유량과 기저유출량에 대하여 NSE 및 Pbias를 검토한 결과, 유출량에 대하여 NSE가 최고(0.9이상)인 샘플의 경우 관측된 증발산량과 상당한 차이를 보였으나, 유출량과 기저유출에 대하여 NSE가 최고(유출에 대한 NSE가 0.8, 기저유출량에 대한 NSE가 0.6)인 샘플의 경우에는 관측된 증발산량의 패턴을 유사하게 모의하였다. 추후 본 연구에서 제시된 기법의 타수계 적용 등의 추가적 검증을 통하여 장기유출해석시 증발산량의 예측정확도를 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.13-24
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• 2013

Various elastic wave-based site investigation methods have been used to characterize subsurface ground because the dynamic properties can be correlated with various geotechnical parameters. Although the inherent spatial variability of the geotechnical parameters affects the P-wave propagation characteristics, ground heterogeneity has not been considered as an influential factor. Thus, the effect of heterogeneous ground on the travel-time shift and wavefront characteristics of elastic waves through stochastic numerical analyses is investigated in this study. The effects of the relative correlation lengths and relative propagation distances on the travel-time shift of P-waves considering various intensities of ground heterogeneity were investigated. Heterogeneous ground fields of stiffness (e.g., the coefficient of variation = 10 ~ 40%) were repeatedly realized in numerical finite difference grids using the turning band method. Monte Carlo simulations were undertaken to simulate P-wave propagation in heterogeneous ground using a finite difference method-based numerical approach. The results show that the disturbance of the wavefront becomes more significant with stronger heterogeneity and induces travel-time delays. The relative correlation lengths and propagation distances are systematically related to the travel-time shift.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.7
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• pp.547-558
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• 2009

General reliability assessment of levees embankment is performed with safety factors for rainfall characteristics and hydrologic and hydraulic parameters, based on the results of deterministic analysis. The safety factors are widely employed in the field of engineering handling model parameters and the diversity of material properties, but cannot explain every natural phenomenon. Uncertainty of flood analysis and related parameters by introducing stochastic method rather than deterministic scheme will be required to deal with extreme weather and unprecedented flood due to recent climate change. As a consequence, stochastic-method-based measures considering parameter uncertainty and related factors are being established. In this study, a variety of dimensionless cumulative rainfall curve for typhoon and monsoon season of July to September with generation method of stochastic temporal variation is generated by introducing Monte Carlo method and applied to the risk assessment of levee embankment using reliability index. The result of this study reflecting temporal and regional characteristics of a rainfall can be used for the establishment of flood defence measures, hydraulic structure design and analysis on a watershed.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.107-114
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• 2009

A Compton camera, which is based on Compton kinematics, is a very promising gamma-ray imaging device in that it could overcome the limitations of the conventional gamma-ray imaging devices. In the present study, the image quality of a rotating Compton camera was evaluated by using 4-D Monte Carlo simulation technique and the applicability to nuclear industrial applications was examined. It was found that Compton images were significantly improved when the Compton camera rotates around a gamma-ray source. It was also found that the 3-D imaging capability of a Compton camera could enable us to accurately determine the 3-D location of radioactive contamination in a concrete wall for decommissioning purpose of nuclear facilities. The 4-D Monte Carlo simulation technique, which was applied to the Compton camera fields for the first time, could be also used to model the time-dependent geometry for various applications.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.37 no.9
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• pp.1133-1140
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• 2013

A computer model is a useful tool that provides solution via physical modeling instead of expensive testing. In reality, however, it often does not agree with the experimental data owing to simplifying assumption and unknown or uncertain input parameters. In this study, a Bayesian approach is proposed to calibrate the computer model in a probabilistic manner using the measured data. The elasto-plastic analysis of a pyrotechnically actuated device (PAD) is employed to demonstrate this approach, which is a component that delivers high power in remote environments by the combustion of a self-contained energy source. A simple mathematical model that quickly evaluates the performance is developed. Unknown input parameters are calibrated conditional on the experimental data using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which is a modern computational statistics method. Finally, the results are applied to determine the reliability of the PAD.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.116-121
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• 2012

The construction of underground structures such as box culverts for electric power transmission is increasing more and more, and the life extension of these structures is very important. Carbonation-induced corrosion in concrete may often occur in a high carbon dioxide environment. In this study, the risk of carbonation of two concrete box culverts in an urban area was evaluated by measuring the carbonation rate and concrete cover depth. Then, the carbonation-free service life at the depth of the steel was calculated, based on in situ information, by the Monte Carlo simulation. The service life of box culvert due to carbonation was estimated over 250 years via Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.30-40
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• 2014

The demand of underground structure such as box culvert for electric power transmission is increasing more and more, and the service life extension of these structures is very important. Recent observations in field and experimental evidences show that even steel in concrete can be corroded by carbonation reaction of cover concrete. Carbonation-induced corrosion in concrete may often occur in a high carbon dioxide environment. In this study, the risk of carbonation of box culverts in our nation was evaluated by measuring the carbonation rate and concrete cover depth in field. Then, the service life due to carbonation at the cover depth was calculated by in situ information and the Monte Carlo simulation in a probabilistic way. Additionally, the accelerated carbonation test for the cracked beam specimen was executed and the crack effect owing to the carbonation process on the service life of box culvert was numerically investigated via Monte Carlo simulation based on the experimental results.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.32 no.11
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• pp.31-42
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• 2016

Usually the seismic stability analysis of slope uses the pseudostatic analysis considering the inertial force by the earthquake as a static load. Geostructures such as slope include the uncertainty of soil properties. Therefore, it is necessary to consider probabilistic method for stability analysis. In this study, the probabilistic stability analysis of slope considering the uncertainty of soil properties has been performed. The fragility curve that represents the probability of exceeding limit state of slope as a function of the ground motion has been established. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) has been implemented to perform the probabilistic stability analysis of slope with pseudostatic analysis. A procedure to develop the fragility curve by the pseudostatic horizontal acceleration has been presented by calculating the probability of failure based on the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based response surface technique that reduces the required time of MCS. The results showed that the proposed method can get the fragility curve that is similar to the direct MCS-based fragility curve, and can be efficiently used to reduce the analysis time.