• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.63 no.1
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• pp.47-53
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• 2017

The fundamental goal of this study is to minimize the uncertainty of the median fragility curve and to assess the structural vulnerability under earthquake excitation. Bayesian Inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been presented for efficient collapse response assessment of the independent intake water tower. The intake tower is significantly used as a diversion type of the hydropower station for maintaining power plant, reservoir and spillway tunnel. Therefore, the seismic fragility assessment of the intake tower is a pivotal component for estimating total system risk of the reservoir. In this investigation, an asymmetrical independent slender reinforced concrete structure is considered. The Bayesian Inference method provides the flexibility to integrate the prior information of collapse response data with the numerical analysis results. The preliminary information of risk data can be obtained from various sources like experiments, existing studies, and simplified linear dynamic analysis or nonlinear static analysis. The conventional lognormal model is used for plotting the fragility curve using the data from time history simulation and nonlinear static pushover analysis respectively. The Bayesian Inference approach is applied for integrating the data from both analyses with the help of MCMC simulation. The method achieves meaningful improvement of uncertainty associated with the fragility curve, and provides significant statistical and computational efficiency.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.557-572
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• 2009

This article examines the financial soundness of the government employee pension system(GEPS). We use a model that simplifies the existing GEPS considering survival probability distribution of the life of employees. Two approaches were selected for the research: One is the expected net value of pension for an individual employee and the other is the default probability of the system from Monte-carlo simulation. The outcome reveals following three possibilities. First of all, the individual expected net value presents unfairness between the retiree's premium and the benefit he/she receives. Secondly, the Monte-carlo simulation suggests that the default is highly likely to happen in less than 30 years. Thirdly, the governmental reserve and subsidy for GEPS should be required to a certain degree in order to alleviate the probability of default less than 5 percent for the next 30 years.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.450-456
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• 2006

Monte Carlo localization is known to be one of the most reliable methods for pose estimation of a mobile robot. Although MCL is capable of estimating the robot pose even for a completely unknown initial pose in the known environment, it takes considerable time to give an initial pose estimate because the number of random samples is usually very large especially for a large-scale environment. For practical implementation of MCL, therefore, a reduction in sample size is desirable. This paper presents a novel approach to reducing the number of samples used in the particle filter for efficient implementation of MCL. To this end, the topological information generated through the thinning technique, which is commonly used in image processing, is employed. The global topological map is first created from the given grid map for the environment. The robot then scans the local environment using a laser rangefinder and generates a local topological map. The robot then navigates only on this local topological edge, which is likely to be similar to the one obtained off-line from the given grid map. Random samples are drawn near the topological edge instead of being taken with uniform distribution all over the environment, since the robot traverses along the edge. Experimental results using the proposed method show that the number of samples can be reduced considerably, and the time required for robot pose estimation can also be substantially decreased without adverse effects on the performance of MCL.

• Journal of Welding and Joining
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.61-66
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• 2005

A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, $C_t$ normalized with $C^*$ was employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT, Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated fur various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.992-1002
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• 1988

The dynamic response of rotor-bearing systems subjected to six-component nonststionary earthquake ground accelerations is analyzed. The governing equations of motion for the rotor are derived using Lagrangian approach. The six-component earthquake inputs result in both inhomogeneous and parametric excitations, so that the conventional spectral analysis of random vibration is not applicable. The method of Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to simulate the six-component nonstationary earthquake ground motions and to determine the response statistics of rotor-bearing systems. The significant influences due to rotational motions of seismic base on the overall structural response is demonstrated by a numerical example.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.879-891
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• 2021

With improvements in living conditions, an increasing number of people are choosing to spend their time traveling. Comfortable tour routes are affected by the season, time, and other local factors. In this paper, the influencing factors and principles of scenic spots are analyzed, a model used to find the available routes is built, and a multi-route choice model based on a game theory utilizing a path recommendation weight is developed. A Monte Carlo analysis of a tourist route subjected to fixed access point conditions is applied to account for uncertainties such as the season, start time, end time, stay time, number of scenic spots, destination, and start point. We use the Dijkstra method to obtain multiple path plans and calculate the path evaluation score using the Monte Carlo method. Finally, according to the user preference in the input path, game theory generates path ordering for user choice. The proposed approach achieves a state-of-the-art performance at the pseudo-imperial palace. Compared with other methods, the proposed method can avoid congestion and reduce the time cost.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.9
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• pp.2788-2802
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• 2021

Multigroup cross section (MG XS) generation by the UNIST in-house Monte Carlo (MC) code MCS for fast reactor analysis using nodal diffusion codes is reported. The feasibility of the approach is quantified for two sodium fast reactors (SFRs) specified in the OECD/NEA SFR benchmark: a 1000 MW_th metal-fueled SFR (MET-1000) and a 3600 MW_th oxide-fueled SFR (MOX-3600). The accuracy of a few-group XSs generated by MCS is verified using another MC code, Serpent 2. The neutronic steady-state whole-core problem is analyzed using MCS/RAST-K with a 24-group XS set. Various core parameters of interest (core k_eff, power profiles, and reactivity feedback coefficients) are obtained using both MCS/RAST-K and MCS. A code-to-code comparison indicates excellent agreement between the nodal diffusion solution and stochastic solution; the error in the core k_eff is less than 110 pcm, the root-mean-square error of the power profiles is within 1.0%, and the error of the reactivity feedback coefficients is within three standard deviations. Furthermore, using the super-homogenization-corrected XSs improves the prediction accuracy of the control rod worth and power profiles with all rods in. Therefore, the results demonstrate that employing the MCS MG XSs for the nodal diffusion code is feasible for high-fidelity analyses of fast reactors.

• Current Optics and Photonics
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.421-430
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• 2021

The multifocal multiphoton microscopy (MMM) enables high-speed imaging by the concurrent scanning and detection of multiple foci generated by lenslet array or diffractive optical element. The MMM system mainly suffers from crosstalk generated by scattered emission photons that form ghost images among adjacent channels. The ghost image which is a duplicate of the image acquired in sub-images significantly degrades overall image quality. To eliminate the ghost image, the photon reassignment method was established using maximum likelihood estimation. However, this post-processing method generally takes a longer time than image acquisition. In this regard, we propose a novel strategy for rapid noise reduction in the MMM system based upon Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation. Ballistic signal, scattering signal, and scattering noise of each channel are quantified in terms of photon distribution launched in tissue model based on MC simulation. From the analysis of photon distribution, we successfully eliminated the ghost images in the MMM sub-images. If the priori MC simulation under a certain optical condition is established at once, our simple, but robust post-processing technique will continuously provide the noise-reduced images, while significantly reducing the computational cost.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.301-309
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• 2022

This work aims to establish some X-ray qualities recommended by the International Standard Organization (ISO) using the half-value layer (HVL) and H_p(10) dosimetry approaches. The HVL values of the following qualities N-60, N-80, N-100, N-150 and N-250 were determined using various attenuation layers. The obtained results were compared to those of reference X-ray beam qualities and a good agreement was found (difference less than 5% for all qualities). The GAMOS (Geant4-based Architecture for Medicine-Oriented Simulations) radiation transport Monte Carlo toolkit was employed to simulate the production of X-ray spectra. The characteristics HVLs, mean energy and the spectral resolution of simulated spectra have been calculated and turned out to be conform to the ISO reference ones (difference less than the limit allowed by ISO). Furthermore, the conversion coefficients from air kerma to personal dose equivalent for simulated and measured spectra were fairly similar (the maximum difference less than 4.2%).

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.901-910
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• 2021

KHNP recently has obtained the approval for the commercialization of the modified 37-element (or 37 M) fuel bundle and now is loading the 37 M fuel bundles in CANDU-6 reactors in KOREA. One of the main issues for approval was the burnup limit. Due to CANDU design and neutronic characteristics, there was no specific burnup restriction of a fuel bundle. The absence of a burnup limit does not mean that a fuel bundle can stay in the CANDU reactor without a time limit. However, the regulator requested traditional design values as well as the burnup limit reflecting the computer code uncertainty. The method for the PWR burnup limit was not applied to the CANDU fuel bundle. Since there was no approved methodology to build the burnup limit with uncertainties, KHNP introduced a Monte-Carlo method coupled with a 95/95 approach to determine the conservative burnup limit from the viewpoint of the centerline temperature, internal pressure, strain measurement deviation. Moreover, to consider the uncertainties of various computing models, a converted power uncertainty was introduced. This paper presents the methodology and puts forward the limits on burnup, evaluated for each of the existing and modified fuel bundles, in consideration of the pressure tube aging condition.