• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model-based parameter estimation

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Evaluation of Stream Flow Data Observed in the Pyungchang River Basin Using the IHACRES Model (IHACRES 모형을 이용한 평창강 유역 내 관측 유량자료의 평가)

  • Park, Yong-Hee;Yoo, Chul-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.123-133
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    • 2008
  • This study evaluated the runoff data collected at 12 stream gauge stations of the Chungjoo dam basin using the IHACRES model. Especially, the geomorphology-related parameters of the IHACRES model could be quantified base on the regionalization technique, which have also been applied many stream gauge stations of the Chungjoo dam basin. Summarizing the results is as follows. (1) The climate-related parameters of the IHACRES model c, $\tau_w{^0}$, and f are found to be estimated and used uniformly over the basin. (2) The geomorphology-related parameters of the IHACRES model $t_q,\;t_s,\;and\;v_s$ are found to be estimated by considering the geomorphological parameters like the basin area, channel length, channel slope, basin slope through the regionalization based on the regression analysis. (3) Using the climate-related parameters applied uniformly over the basin and the geomorphology-related parameters estimated based on the regionalization procedure for each stream gauge station, a total of 12 stream gauge stations have been evaluated with their stream flow measurements. As results, the Sanganmi and Youngwal 1 stream gauge stations have been found to make high quality flow data, but Youngwal, Baekokpo, and Panwoon stations low quality flow data. On the whole, 12 stream gauge stations considered show large differences with their data quality, so a plan for securing more consistent data quality should be prepared imminently.

Application of Flat DMT and ANN for Reliable Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength of Korean Soft Clay (국내 연약지반의 신뢰성있는 비배수 전단강도 추정을 위한 flat DMT와 인공신경망 이론의 적용)

  • 변위용;김영상;이승래;정은택
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2004
  • The flat dilatometer test (DMT) is a geotechnical tool to estimate in-situ properties of various types of ground materials. The undrained shear strength is known to be the most reliable and useful parameter obtained by DMT. However, the existing relationships which were established for other local deposits depend on the regional geotechnical characteristics. In addition, the flat dilatometer test results have been interpreted using three intermediate indices - material index $(I_D)$, horizontal stress index $(K_D)$, and dilatometer modulus (E$_{D}$) and the undrained shear strength has been estimated merely using the horizontal stress index $(K_D)$. In this paper, the applicability of the flat dilatometer to Korean soft clay deposit has been investigated. Then an artificial neural network was developed to evaluate the undrained shear strength by DMT and the ANN, based on the $p_0, p_1, p_2, {\sigma '}_v$ and porewater pressure. The ANN which adopts the back-propagation algorithm was trained based on the DMT data obtained from Korean soft clay. To investigate the feasibility of ANN model, the prediction results obtained from data which were not used to train the ANN and those obtained from existing relationships were compared.

Application of flat DMT and ANN for reliable estimation of undrained shear strength of Korean soft clay (국내 연약지반의 신뢰성있는 비배수 전단강도 추정을 위한 flat DMT와 인공신경망 이론의 적용)

  • Byeon, Wi-Yong;Kim, Young-Sang;Lee, Seung-Rae;Jeong, Eun-Taeg
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2004.03b
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    • pp.154-161
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    • 2004
  • The flat dilatometer test(DMT) is a geotechnical tool to estimate in-situ properties of various types of ground materials. The undrained shear strength is known to be the most reliable and useful parameter obtained by DMT. However, the existing relationships which were established for other local deposits depend on the regional geotechnical characteristics. In addition, the flat dilatometer test results have been interpreted using three intermediate indicesmaterial index($I_p$), horizontal stres index($K_p$), and dilatometer modulus($E_p$) and the undrained shear strength is estimated only by using the horizontal stress index($K_D$). In this paper, an artificial neural network was developed to evaluate the undrained shear strength by DMT and the ANN, based on the $p_0,\;p_1,\;p_2,\;{\sigma}'_v_0$, and porewater pressure. The ANN which adopts the back-propagation algorithm was trained based on the DMT data obtained from Korean soft clay. To investigate the feasibility of ANN model, the prediction results obtained from data which were not used to train the ANN and those obtained from existing relationships were compared.

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Accuracy Validation of Urinary Flowmetry Technique Based on Pressure Measurement (수압 측정에 기반하는 요류검사의 정확도 검증)

  • Choi, Sung-Soo;Lee, In-Kwang;Kim, Kun-Jin;Kang, Seung-Bum;Park, Kyung-Soon;Lee, Tae-Soo;Cha, Eun-Jong;Kim, Kyung-Ah
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.198-204
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    • 2008
  • Uroflowmetry is a non-invasive clinical test useful for screening benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH) common in the aged men. The current standard way to obtain the urinary flow rate is to continuously acquire the urine weight signal proportional to volume over time. The present study proposed an alternative technique measuring pressure to overcome noise problems present in the standard weight measuring technique. Experiments were performed to simultaneously acquire both weight and pressure changes during urination of 9 normal men. Noise components were separated from volume signals converted from both weight and pressure signals based on the polynomial signal model. Signal-to-noise ratio was defined as the ratio of the energies between signal and noise components of the measured volume changes, which was 8.5 times larger in the pressure measuring technique, implying that cleaner signal could be obtained, more immune to noisy environments. When four important diagnostic parameters were estimated, excellent correlation coefficients higher than 0.99 were resulted with mean relative errors less than 5%. Therefore, the present pressure measurement seemed valid as an alternative technique for uroflowmetry.

A Ppoisson Regression Aanlysis of Physician Visits (외래이용빈도 분석의 모형과 기법)

  • 이영조;한달선;배상수
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.159-176
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    • 1993
  • The utilization of outpatient care services involves two steps of sequential decisions. The first step decision is about whether to initiate the utilization and the second one is about how many more visits to make after the initiation. Presumably, the initiation decision is largely made by the patient and his or her family, while the number of additional visits is decided under a strong influence of the physician. Implication is that the analysis of the outpatient care utilization requires to specify each of the two decisions underlying the utilization as a distinct stochastic process. This paper is concerned with the number of physician visits, which is, by definition, a discrete variable that can take only non-negative integer values. Since the initial visit is considered in the analysis of whether or not having made any physician visit, the focus on the number of visits made in addition to the initial one must be enough. The number of additional visits, being a kind of count data, could be assumed to exhibit a Poisson distribution. However, it is likely that the distribution is over dispersed since the number of physician visits tends to cluster around a few values but still vary widely. A recently reported study of outpatient care utilization employed an analysis based upon the assumption of a negative binomial distribution which is a type of overdispersed Poisson distribution. But there is an indication that the use of Poisson distribution making adjustments for over-dispersion results in less loss of efficiency in parameter estimation compared to the use of a certain type of distribution like a negative binomial distribution. An analysis of the data for outpatient care utilization was performed focusing on an assessment of appropriateness of available techniques. The data used in the analysis were collected by a community survey in Hwachon Gun, Kangwon Do in 1990. It was observed that a Poisson regression with adjustments for over-dispersion is superior to either an ordinary regression or a Poisson regression without adjustments oor over-dispersion. In conclusion, it seems the most approprite to assume that the number of physician visits made in addition to the initial visist exhibits an overdispersed Poisson distribution when outpatient care utilization is studied based upon a model which embodies the two-part character of the decision process uderlying the utilization.

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Future drought risk assessment under CMIP6 GCMs scenarios

  • Thi, Huong-Nguyen;Kim, Jin-Guk;Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kang, Dong-Won;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.305-305
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    • 2022
  • A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

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EM Algorithm with Initialization Based on Incremental ${\cal}k-means$ for GMM and Its Application to Speaker Identification (GMM을 위한 점진적 ${\cal}k-means$ 알고리즘에 의해 초기값을 갖는 EM알고리즘과 화자식별에의 적용)

  • Seo Changwoo;Hahn Hernsoo;Lee Kiyong;Lee Younjeong
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2005
  • Tn general. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to estimate the speaker model from the speech for speaker identification. The parameter estimates of the GMM are obtained by using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation. However the EM algorithm has such drawbacks that it depends heavily on the initialization and it needs the number of mixtures to be known. In this paper, to solve the above problems of the EM algorithm. we propose an EM algorithm with the initialization based on incremental ${\cal}k-means$ for GMM. The proposed method dynamically increases the number of mixtures one by one until finding the optimum number of mixtures. Whenever adding one mixture, we calculate the mutual relationship between it and one of other mixtures respectively. Finally. based on these mutual relationships. we can estimate the optimal number of mixtures which are statistically independent. The effectiveness of the proposed method is shown by the experiment for artificial data. Also. we performed the speaker identification by applying the proposed method comparing with other approaches.

Research of Runoff Management in Urban Area using Genetic Algorithm (유전자알고리즘을 이용한 도시화 유역에서의 유출 관리 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Beum-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.321-331
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    • 2006
  • Recently, runoff characteristics of urban area are changing because of the increase of impervious area by rapidly increasing of population and industrialization, urbanization. It needs to extract the accurate topologic and hydrologic parameters of watershed in order to manage water resource efficiently. Thus, this study developed more precise input data and more improved parameter estimating procedures using GIS(Geographic Information System) and GA(Genetic Algorithm). For these purposes, XP-SWMM (EXPert-Storm Water Management Model) was used to simulate the urban runoff. The model was applied to An-Yang stream basin that is a typical Korean urban stream basin with several tributaries. The rules for parameter estimation were composed and applied based on quantity parameters that are investigated through the sensitivity analysis. GA algorithm is composed of these rules and facts. The conditions of urban flows are simulated using the rainfall-runoff data of the study area. The data of area, slope, width of each subcatchment and length, slope of each stream reach were acquired from topographic maps, and imperviousness rate, land use types, infiltration capacities of each subcatchment from land use maps, soil maps using GIS. Also we gave the management scheme of urbanization runoff using XP-SWMM. The parameters are estimated by GA from sensitivity analysis which is performed to analyze the runoff parameters.

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A Thermal Time - Based Phenology Estimation in Kimchi Cabbage (Brassica campestris L. ssp. pekinensis) (온도시간 기반의 배추 생육단계 추정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.333-339
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    • 2015
  • A thermal time-based phenology model of Kimchi cabbage was developed by using the field observed growth and temperature data for the purpose of accurately predicting heading and harvest dates among diverse cropping systems. In this model the lifecycle of Kimchi cabbage was separated into the growth stage and the heading stage, while the growth amount of each stage was calculated by optimal mathematical functions describing the response curves for different temperature regimes. The parameter for individual functions were derived from the 2012-2014 crop status report collected from seven farms with different cropping systems located in major Kimchi cabbage production area of South Korea (i.e., alpine Gangwon Province for the summer cultivation and coastal plains in Jeonnam Province for the autumn cultivation). For the model validation, we used an independent data set consisting of local temperature data restored by a geospatial correction scheme and observed harvest dates from 17 farms. The results showed that the root mean square error averaged across the location and time period (2012-2014) was 5.3 days for the harvest date. This model is expected to enhance the utilization of the Korea Meteorological Administration's daily temperature data in issuing agrometeorological forecasts for developmental stages of Kimchi cabbage grown widely in South Korea.

Study on Combined Use of Inclination and Acceleration for Displacement Estimation of a Wind Turbine Structure (경사 및 가속도 계측자료 융합을 통한 풍력 터빈의 변위 추정)

  • Park, Jong-Woong;Sim, Sung-Han;Jung, Byung-Jin;Yi, Jin-Hak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2015
  • Wind power systems have gained much attention due to the relatively high reliability, good infrastructures and cost competitiveness to the fossil fuels. Advances have been made to increase the power efficiency of wind turbines while less attention has been focused on structural integrity assessment of structural sub-systems such as towers and foundations. Among many parameters for integrity assessment, the most perceptive parameter may be the induced horizontal displacement at the hub height although it is very difficult to measure particularly in large-scale and high-rise wind turbine structures. This study proposes an indirect displacement estimation scheme based on the combined use of inclinometers and accelerometers for more convenient and cost-effective measurements. To this end, (1) the formulation for data fusion of inclination and acceleration responses was presented and (2) the proposed method was numerically validated on an NREL 5 MW wind turbine model. The numerical analysis was carried out to investigate the performance of the propose method according to the number of sensors, the resolution and the available sampling rate of the inclinometers to be used.