• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model optimization

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The Optimization of Ensembles for Bankruptcy Prediction (기업부도 예측 앙상블 모형의 최적화)

  • Myoung Jong Kim;Woo Seob Yun
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.39-57
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    • 2022
  • This paper proposes the GMOPTBoost algorithm to improve the performance of the AdaBoost algorithm for bankruptcy prediction in which class imbalance problem is inherent. AdaBoost algorithm has the advantage of providing a robust learning opportunity for misclassified samples. However, there is a limitation in addressing class imbalance problem because the concept of arithmetic mean accuracy is embedded in AdaBoost algorithm. GMOPTBoost can optimize the geometric mean accuracy and effectively solve the category imbalance problem by applying Gaussian gradient descent. The samples are constructed according to the following two phases. First, five class imbalance datasets are constructed to verify the effect of the class imbalance problem on the performance of the prediction model and the performance improvement effect of GMOPTBoost. Second, class balanced data are constituted through data sampling techniques to verify the performance improvement effect of GMOPTBoost. The main results of 30 times of cross-validation analyzes are as follows. First, the class imbalance problem degrades the performance of ensembles. Second, GMOPTBoost contributes to performance improvements of AdaBoost ensembles trained on imbalanced datasets. Third, Data sampling techniques have a positive impact on performance improvement. Finally, GMOPTBoost contributes to significant performance improvement of AdaBoost ensembles trained on balanced datasets.

Optimization of Uneven Margin SVM to Solve Class Imbalance in Bankruptcy Prediction (비대칭 마진 SVM 최적화 모델을 이용한 기업부실 예측모형의 범주 불균형 문제 해결)

  • Sung Yim Jo;Myoung Jong Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.23-40
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    • 2022
  • Although Support Vector Machine(SVM) has been used in various fields such as bankruptcy prediction model, the hyperplane learned by SVM in class imbalance problem can be severely skewed toward minority class and has a negative impact on performance because the area of majority class is expanded while the area of minority class is invaded. This study proposed optimized uneven margin SVM(OPT-UMSVM) combining threshold moving or post scaling method with UMSVM to cope with the limitation of the traditional even margin SVM(EMSVM) in class imbalance problem. OPT-UMSVM readjusted the skewed hyperplane to the majority class and had better generation ability than EMSVM improving the sensitivity of minority class and calculating the optimized performance. To validate OPT-UMSVM, 10-fold cross validations were performed on five sub-datasets with different imbalance ratio values. Empirical results showed two main findings. First, UMSVM had a weak effect on improving the performance of EMSVM in balanced datasets, but it greatly outperformed EMSVM in severely imbalanced datasets. Second, compared to EMSVM and conventional UMSVM, OPT-UMSVM had better performance in both balanced and imbalanced datasets and showed a significant difference performance especially in severely imbalanced datasets.

A Tracer Study on Mankyeong River Using Effluents from a Sewage Treatment Plant (하수처리장 방류수를 이용한 추적자 시험: 만경강 유역에 대한 사례 연구)

  • Kim Jin-Sam;Kim Kang-Joo;Hahn Chan;Hwang Gab-Soo;Park Sung-Min;Lee Sang-Ho;Oh Chang-Whan;Park Eun-Gyu
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.82-91
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    • 2006
  • We investigated the possibility of using effluents from a municipal sewage treatment plant (STP) as tracers a tracer for hydrologic studies of rivers. The possibility was checked in a 12-km long reach downstream of Jeonju Municipal Sewage Treatment Plant (JSTP). Time-series monitoring of the water chemistry reveals that chemical compositions of the effluent from the JSTP are fluctuating within a relatively wide range during the sampling period. In addition, the signals from the plant were observed at the downstream stations consecutively with increasing time lags, especially in concentrations of the conservative chemical parameters (concentrations f3r chloride and sulfate, total concentration of major cations, and electric conductivity). Based on this observation, we could estimate the stream flow (Q), velocity (v), and dispersion coefficient (D). A 1-D nonreactive solute-transport model with automated optimization schemes was used for this study. The values of Q, v, and D estimated from this study varied from 6.4 to $9.0m^3/sec$ (at the downstream end of the reach), from 0.06 to 0.10 m/sec, and from 0.7 to $6.4m^2/sec$, respectively. The results show that the effluent from a large-scaled municipal STP frequently provides good, multiple natural tracers far hydrologic studies.

Demand Shifting or Ancillary Service?: Optimal Allocation of Storage Resource to Maximize the Efficiency of Power Supply (Demand Shifting or Ancillary Service?: 효율적 재생발전 수용을 위한 에너지저장장치 최적 자원 분배 연구)

  • Wooyoung Jeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.113-133
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    • 2024
  • Variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind power is the main sources of achieving carbon net zero, but it undermines the stability of power supply due to high variability and uncertainty. Energy storage system (ESS) can not only reduce the curtailment of VRE by load shifting but also contribute to stable power system operation by providing ancillary services. This study analyzes how the allocation of ESS resources between load shifting and ancillary service can contribute to maximizing the efficiency of power supply in a situation where the problems caused by VRE are becoming more and more serious. A stochastic power system optimization model that can realistically simulate the variability and uncertainty of VRE was applied. The analysis time point was set to 2023 and 2036, and the optimal resource allocation strategy and benefits of ESS by varying VRE penetration levels were analyzed. The analysis results can be largely summarized into the following three. First, ESS provides excellent functions for both load shifting and ancillary service, and it was confirmed that the higher the reserve price, the more limited the load shifting and focused on providing reserve. Second, the curtailment of VRE can be a effective substitute for the required reserve, and the higher the reserve price level, the higher the curtailment of VRE and the lower the required amount of reserve. Third, if a reasonable reserve offer price reflecting the opportunity cost is applied, ESS can secure economic feasibility in the near future, and the higher the proportion of VRE, the greater the economic feasibility of ESS. This study suggests that cost-effective low-carbon transition in the power system is possible when the price signal is correctly designed so that power supply resources can be efficiently utilized.

Social Network-based Hybrid Collaborative Filtering using Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리즘을 활용한 소셜네트워크 기반 하이브리드 협업필터링)

  • Noh, Heeryong;Choi, Seulbi;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.19-38
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    • 2017
  • Collaborative filtering (CF) algorithm has been popularly used for implementing recommender systems. Until now, there have been many prior studies to improve the accuracy of CF. Among them, some recent studies adopt 'hybrid recommendation approach', which enhances the performance of conventional CF by using additional information. In this research, we propose a new hybrid recommender system which fuses CF and the results from the social network analysis on trust and distrust relationship networks among users to enhance prediction accuracy. The proposed algorithm of our study is based on memory-based CF. But, when calculating the similarity between users in CF, our proposed algorithm considers not only the correlation of the users' numeric rating patterns, but also the users' in-degree centrality values derived from trust and distrust relationship networks. In specific, it is designed to amplify the similarity between a target user and his or her neighbor when the neighbor has higher in-degree centrality in the trust relationship network. Also, it attenuates the similarity between a target user and his or her neighbor when the neighbor has higher in-degree centrality in the distrust relationship network. Our proposed algorithm considers four (4) types of user relationships - direct trust, indirect trust, direct distrust, and indirect distrust - in total. And, it uses four adjusting coefficients, which adjusts the level of amplification / attenuation for in-degree centrality values derived from direct / indirect trust and distrust relationship networks. To determine optimal adjusting coefficients, genetic algorithms (GA) has been adopted. Under this background, we named our proposed algorithm as SNACF-GA (Social Network Analysis - based CF using GA). To validate the performance of the SNACF-GA, we used a real-world data set which is called 'Extended Epinions dataset' provided by 'trustlet.org'. It is the data set contains user responses (rating scores and reviews) after purchasing specific items (e.g. car, movie, music, book) as well as trust / distrust relationship information indicating whom to trust or distrust between users. The experimental system was basically developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), but we also used UCINET 6 for calculating the in-degree centrality of trust / distrust relationship networks. In addition, we used Palisade Software's Evolver, which is a commercial software implements genetic algorithm. To examine the effectiveness of our proposed system more precisely, we adopted two comparison models. The first comparison model is conventional CF. It only uses users' explicit numeric ratings when calculating the similarities between users. That is, it does not consider trust / distrust relationship between users at all. The second comparison model is SNACF (Social Network Analysis - based CF). SNACF differs from the proposed algorithm SNACF-GA in that it considers only direct trust / distrust relationships. It also does not use GA optimization. The performances of the proposed algorithm and comparison models were evaluated by using average MAE (mean absolute error). Experimental result showed that the optimal adjusting coefficients for direct trust, indirect trust, direct distrust, indirect distrust were 0, 1.4287, 1.5, 0.4615 each. This implies that distrust relationships between users are more important than trust ones in recommender systems. From the perspective of recommendation accuracy, SNACF-GA (Avg. MAE = 0.111943), the proposed algorithm which reflects both direct and indirect trust / distrust relationships information, was found to greatly outperform a conventional CF (Avg. MAE = 0.112638). Also, the algorithm showed better recommendation accuracy than the SNACF (Avg. MAE = 0.112209). To confirm whether these differences are statistically significant or not, we applied paired samples t-test. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that the difference between SNACF-GA and conventional CF was statistical significant at the 1% significance level, and the difference between SNACF-GA and SNACF was statistical significant at the 5%. Our study found that the trust/distrust relationship can be important information for improving performance of recommendation algorithms. Especially, distrust relationship information was found to have a greater impact on the performance improvement of CF. This implies that we need to have more attention on distrust (negative) relationships rather than trust (positive) ones when tracking and managing social relationships between users.

Recent Progress in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Research : A Review of Papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 2016 (설비공학 분야의 최근 연구 동향 : 2016년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰)

  • Lee, Dae-Young;Kim, Sa Ryang;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Kim, Dong-Seon;Park, Jun-Seok;Ihm, Pyeong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2017
  • This article reviews the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering during 2016. It is intended to understand the status of current research in the areas of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation, and indoor environments of buildings and plant facilities. Conclusions are as follows. (1) The research works on the thermal and fluid engineering have been reviewed as groups of flow, heat and mass transfer, the reduction of pollutant exhaust gas, cooling and heating, the renewable energy system and the flow around buildings. CFD schemes were used more for all research areas. (2) Research works on heat transfer area have been reviewed in the categories of heat transfer characteristics, pool boiling and condensing heat transfer and industrial heat exchangers. Researches on heat transfer characteristics included the results of the long-term performance variation of the plate-type enthalpy exchange element made of paper, design optimization of an extruded-type cooling structure for reducing the weight of LED street lights, and hot plate welding of thermoplastic elastomer packing. In the area of pool boiling and condensing, the heat transfer characteristics of a finned-tube heat exchanger in a PCM (phase change material) thermal energy storage system, influence of flow boiling heat transfer on fouling phenomenon in nanofluids, and PCM at the simultaneous charging and discharging condition were studied. In the area of industrial heat exchangers, one-dimensional flow network model and porous-media model, and R245fa in a plate-shell heat exchanger were studied. (3) Various studies were published in the categories of refrigeration cycle, alternative refrigeration/energy system, system control. In the refrigeration cycle category, subjects include mobile cold storage heat exchanger, compressor reliability, indirect refrigeration system with $CO_2$ as secondary fluid, heat pump for fuel-cell vehicle, heat recovery from hybrid drier and heat exchangers with two-port and flat tubes. In the alternative refrigeration/energy system category, subjects include membrane module for dehumidification refrigeration, desiccant-assisted low-temperature drying, regenerative evaporative cooler and ejector-assisted multi-stage evaporation. In the system control category, subjects include multi-refrigeration system control, emergency cooling of data center and variable-speed compressor control. (4) In building mechanical system research fields, fifteenth studies were reported for achieving effective design of the mechanical systems, and also for maximizing the energy efficiency of buildings. The topics of the studies included energy performance, HVAC system, ventilation, renewable energies, etc. Proposed designs, performance tests using numerical methods and experiments provide useful information and key data which could be help for improving the energy efficiency of the buildings. (5) The field of architectural environment was mostly focused on indoor environment and building energy. The main researches of indoor environment were related to the analyses of indoor thermal environments controlled by portable cooler, the effects of outdoor wind pressure in airflow at high-rise buildings, window air tightness related to the filling piece shapes, stack effect in core type's office building and the development of a movable drawer-type light shelf with adjustable depth of the reflector. The subjects of building energy were worked on the energy consumption analysis in office building, the prediction of exit air temperature of horizontal geothermal heat exchanger, LS-SVM based modeling of hot water supply load for district heating system, the energy saving effect of ERV system using night purge control method and the effect of strengthened insulation level to the building heating and cooling load.

Optimization of Betacyanin Production by Red Beet (Beta vulgaris L.) Hairy Root Cultures. (Red Beet의 모상근 배양을 이용한 천연색소인 Betacyanin 생산의 최적화)

  • Kim, Sun-Hee;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Jo-No;An, Sang-Wook;Kim, Kwang-Soo;Hwnag, Baik;Lee, Hyeong-Yong
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.435-441
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    • 1998
  • Optimal conditions for the production of natural color, betacyanin were investigated by varying light intensity, C/N ratio, concentrations of phosphate and kinds of elicitors. Batch cultivation was employed to characterize cell growth and betacyanin production of 32 days. The maximum specific growth rate, ${\mu}$$\sub$max/, was 0.3 (1/day) for batch cultivation. The maximum specific production rate, q$\^$max/$\sub$p/, was enhanced 0.11 (mg/g-cell/day) at 3 klux. A light intensity of 3 klux was shown to the best for both cell growth and betacyanin production. The maximum specific production rate was 0.125 (mg/g-cell/day) at 0.242 (1/day), the maximum specific growth rate. The dependence of specific growth rate on the light lintensity is fit to the photoinhibition model. The correlation between ${\mu}$ and q$\sub$p/ showed that the product formation parameters, ${\alpha}$ and ${\beta}$$\sub$p/ were 0.3756 (mg/cell) and 0.001 (mg/g-cell/day), respectively. The betacyanin production was partially cell growth related process, which is different from the production of a typical product in plant cell cultures. In C/N ratio experiment, high carbon concentration, 42.1 (w/w) improved cell growth rate while lower concentration, 31.6 (w/w) increased the betacyanin production rate. The ${\mu}$$\sub$max/ and q$\^$max/$\sub$p/ were 0.26 (1/day) and 0.075 (mg/g-cell/day), respectively. Beta vulgaris L. cells under 1.25 mM phosphate concentration produced 10.15 mg/L betacyanin with 13.46 (g-dry wt./L) of maximum cell density. The production of betacyanin was elongated by adding 0.1 ${\mu}$M of kinetin. This also increased the cell growth. Optimum culture conditions of light intensity, C/N, phosphate concentration were obtained as 5.5 klux, 27 (w/w), 1.25 mM, respectively by the response surface methodology. The maximum cell density, X$\sub$max/, and maximum production, P$\sub$max/, in optimized conditions were 16 (g-dry wt./L), 12.5 (mg/L) which were higher than 8 (g-dry wt./L), 4.48 (mg/L) in normal conditions. The ${\mu}$$\sub$max/ and q$\^$max/$\sub$p/ were 0.376 (1/day) and 0.134 (mg/g-cell/day) at the optimal condition. The overall results may be useful in scaling up hairy root cell culture system for commercial production of betacyanin.

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A Study of the Environmental Consciousness Influences on the Psychological Reaction of Forest Ecotourists (환경의식에 따른 산림생태관광객의 심리적 반응에 관한 연구)

  • Yan, Guang-Hao;Na, Seung-Hwa
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2012
  • With the slowdown in environmental issues and the change of environmental consciousness, ecotourism is being discussed in various social fields. Ecotourism is being popularized for environmental protection, and now it is becoming a mainstream product from one of mass tourism. Ecotourism's emphasis on sustainable development in the tourism destination's society, economy, and environment, through ecotourism study and education, enable people to understand the core value of the ecological environment. 2011 was nominated as "the Year of World Forest" by the UN. In the recent years, forests are becoming increasingly important with their own values and functions in environment, economy, society, and culture. In particular, the global environmental issues caused by climate change are becoming an international agenda. Forests are the only effective solution for the carbon dioxide that causes global warming. Moreover, forests constitute a major part of ecotourism, and are now most used by ecotourists. For example, Korea, wherein 60% of the land is forest, attracts ecotourists. With the increasing interests in environment, the number of tourists visiting the ecosystem forest, which is highly valued for its conservation, is increasing significantly every year and is receiving considerable attention from the government. However, poor facilities in the forest ecotourism sites and improper market strategies are the reasons for the poor running of these sites. Furthermore, tourists' environmental awareness affects ecology environmental pollution or the optimization of forest ecotourism. In order to verify the relationships among tourist attractiveness, environmental consciousness, charm degrees of the attractions, and attitudes after tours, we established some scales based on existing research achievement. Then, using these scales, the researcher completed the questionnaire survey. From December 20, 2010 to February 20, 2011, after conducting surveys for 12 weeks, we finally obtained 582 valid questionnaires, from a total of 700 questionnaires, that could be used in statistical analysis. First, for the method of research and analysis, the researcher initially applied the Cronbach's (Alpha) for verifying the reliability, and subsequently applied the Exploratory factor analysis for verifying the validity. Second, in order to analyze the demographics, the researcher makes use of the Frequency analysis for the AMOS, measurement model, structural equation model computing, and also utilizes construct validity, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and nomological validity. Third, for the analysis of the ecotourists' environmental consciousness, impacts on tourist attractiveness, charm degrees of the attractions, and attitudes after the tour, the researcher uses AMOS 19, with the path analysis and equation of structure. After the research, researchers found that high awareness of natural protection lead to high tourist motivation and satisfaction and more positive attitude after the tour. Moreover, this research shows the psychological and behavioral reactions of the ecotourists to the ecotourist development. Accordingly, environmental consciousness does not affect the tourist attractiveness that has been interpreted as significant. Furthermore, people should focus on the change of natural protection consciousness and psychological reaction of ecotourists while ensuring the sustainable development of ecotourists and developing some ecotourist programs.

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Dynamic Characteristic Analysis Procedure of Helicopter-mounted Electronic Equipment (헬기 탑재용 전자장비의 동특성 분석 절차)

  • Lee, Jong-Hak;Kwon, Byunghyun;Park, No-Cheol;Park, Young-Pil
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.759-769
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    • 2013
  • Electronic equipment has been applied to virtually every area associated with commercial, industrial, and military applications. Specifically, electronics have been incorporated into avionics components installed in aircraft. This equipment is exposed to dynamic loads such as vibration, shock, and acceleration. Especially, avionics components installed in a helicopter are subjected to simultaneous sine and random base excitations. These are denoted as sine on random vibrations according to MIL-STD-810F, Method 514.5. In the past, isolators have been applied to avionics components to reduce vibration and shock. However, an isolator applied to an avionics component installed in a helicopter can amplify the vibration magnitude, and damage the chassis, circuit card assembly, and the isolator itself via resonance at low-frequency sinusoidal vibrations. The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic characteristics of an avionics component installed in a helicopter and the structural dynamic modification of its tray plate without an isolator using both a finite element analysis and experiments. The structure is optimized by dynamic loads that are selected by comparing the vibration, shock, and acceleration loads using vibration and shock response spectra. A finite element model(FEM) was constructed using a simplified geometry and valid element types that reflect the dynamic characteristics. The FEM was verified by an experimental modal analysis. Design parameters were extracted and selected to modify the structural dynamics using topology optimization, and design of experiments(DOE). A prototype of a modified model was constructed and its feasibility was evaluated using an FEM and a performance test.

Evaluation of Approximate Exposure to Low-dose Ionizing Radiation from Medical Images using a Computed Radiography (CR) System (전산화 방사선촬영(CR) 시스템을 이용한 근사적 의료 피폭 선량 평가)

  • Yu, Minsun;Lee, Jaeseung;Im, Inchul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.455-464
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    • 2012
  • This study suggested evaluation of approximately exposure to low-dose ionization radiation from medical images using a computed radiography (CR) system in standard X-ray examination and experimental model can compare diagnostic reference level (DRL) will suggest on optimization condition of guard about medical radiation of low dose space. Entrance surface dose (ESD) cross-measuring by standard dosimeter and optically stimulated luminescence dosimeters (OSLDs) in experiment condition about tube voltage and current of X-ray generator. Also, Hounsfield unit (HU) scale measured about each experiment condition in CR system and after character relationship table and graph tabulate about ESD and HU scale, approximately radiation dose about head, neck, thoracic, abdomen, and pelvis draw a measurement. In result measuring head, neck, thoracic, abdomen, and pelvis, average of ESD is 2.10, 2.01, 1.13, 2.97, and 1.95 mGy, respectively. HU scale is $3,276{\pm}3.72$, $3,217{\pm}2.93$, $2,768{\pm}3.13$, $3,782{\pm}5.19$, and $2,318{\pm}4.64$, respectively, in CR image. At this moment, using characteristic relationship table and graph, ESD measured approximately 2.16, 2.06, 1.19, 3.05, and 2.07 mGy, respectively. Average error of measuring value and ESD measured approximately smaller than 3%, this have credibility cover all the bases radiology area of measurement 5%. In its final analysis, this study suggest new experimental model approximately can assess radiation dose of patient in standard X-ray examination and can apply to CR examination, digital radiography and even film-cassette system.