• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model Validation

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Interpretation of Migration of Radionuclides in a Rock Fracture Using a Particle Tracking Method (입자추적법을 사용한 암반균열에서 핵종이동 해석)

  • Chung Kyun Park;Pil Soo Hahn;Douglas J. Drew
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.176-188
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    • 1995
  • A particle tracking scheme was developed in order to model radionuclide transport through a tortuous flow Held in a rock fracture. The particle tacking method may be used effectively in a heterogeneous flow field such as rock fracture. The parallel plate representation of the single fracture fails to recognize the spatial heterogeneity in the fracture aperture and thus seems inadequate in describing fluid movement through a real fracture. The heterogeneous flow field une modeled by a variable aperture channel model after characterizing aperture distribution by a hydraulic test. To support the validation of radionuclide transport models, a radionuclide migration experiment was performed in a natural fracture of granite. $^3$$H_2O$ and $^{131}$ I are used as tracers. Simulated results were in agreement with experimental result and therefore support the validity of the transport model. Residence time distributions display multipeak curves caused by the fast arrival of solutes traveling along preferential fracture channels and by the much slower arrival of solutes following tortous routes through the fracture. Results from the modelling of the transport of nonsorbing tracer through the fracture show that diffusion into the interconnected pore space in the rock mass has a significant effect on retardation.

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Modeling and analysis of selected organization for economic cooperation and development PKL-3 station blackout experiments using TRACE

  • Mukin, Roman;Clifford, Ivor;Zerkak, Omar;Ferroukhi, Hakim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.356-367
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    • 2018
  • A series of tests dedicated to station blackout (SBO) accident scenarios have been recently performed at the $Prim{\ddot{a}}rkreislauf-Versuchsanlage$ (primary coolant loop test facility; PKL) facility in the framework of the OECD/NEA PKL-3 project. These investigations address current safety issues related to beyond design basis accident transients with significant core heat up. This work presents a detailed analysis using the best estimate thermal-hydraulic code TRACE (v5.0 Patch4) of different SBO scenarios conducted at the PKL facility; failures of high- and low-pressure safety injection systems together with steam generator (SG) feedwater supply are considered, thus calling for adequate accident management actions and timely implementation of alternative emergency cooling procedures to prevent core meltdown. The presented analysis evaluates the capability of the applied TRACE model of the PKL facility to correctly capture the sequences of events in the different SBO scenarios, namely the SBO tests H2.1, H2.2 run 1 and H2.2 run 2, including symmetric or asymmetric secondary side depressurization, primary side depressurization, accumulator (ACC) injection in the cold legs and secondary side feeding with mobile pump and/or primary side emergency core coolant injection from the fuel pool cooling pump. This study is focused specifically on the prediction of the core exit temperature, which drives the execution of the most relevant accident management actions. This work presents, in particular, the key improvements made to the TRACE model that helped to improve the code predictions, including the modeling of dynamical heat losses, the nodalization of SGs' heat exchanger tubes and the ACCs. Another relevant aspect of this work is to evaluate how well the model simulations of the three different scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively capture the trends and results exhibited by the actual experiments. For instance, how the number of SGs considered for secondary side depressurization affects the heat transfer from primary side; how the discharge capacity of the pressurizer relief valve affects the dynamics of the transient; how ACC initial pressure and nitrogen release affect the grace time between ACC injection and subsequent core heat up; and how well the alternative feeding modes of the secondary and/or primary side with mobile injection pumps affect core quenching and ensure stable long-term core cooling under controlled boiling conditions.

Development of artificial intelligence-based river flood level prediction model capable of independent self-warning (독립적 자체경보가 가능한 인공지능기반 하천홍수위예측 모형개발)

  • Kim, Sooyoung;Kim, Hyung-Jun;Yoon, Kwang Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1285-1294
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    • 2021
  • In recent years, as rainfall is concentrated and rainfall intensity increases worldwide due to climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing. Rainfall of a previously unobserved magnitude falls, and the rainy season lasts for a long time on record. In particular, these damages are concentrated in ASEAN countries, and at least 20 million people among ASEAN countries are affected by frequent flooding due to recent sea level rise, typhoons and torrential rain. Korea supports the domestic flood warning system to ASEAN countries through various ODA projects, but the communication network is unstable, so there is a limit to the central control method alone. Therefore, in this study, an artificial intelligence-based flood prediction model was developed to develop an observation station that can observe water level and rainfall, and even predict and warn floods at once at one observation station. Training, validation and testing were carried out for 0.5, 1, 2, 3, and 6 hours of lead time using the rainfall and water level observation data in 10-minute units from 2009 to 2020 at Junjukbi-bridge station of Seolma stream. LSTM was applied to artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, it showed excellent results in model fit and error for all lead time. In the case of a short arrival time due to a small watershed and a large watershed slope such as Seolma stream, a lead time of 1 hour will show very good prediction results. In addition, it is expected that a longer lead time is possible depending on the size and slope of the watershed.

Tomato Crop Diseases Classification Models Using Deep CNN-based Architectures (심층 CNN 기반 구조를 이용한 토마토 작물 병해충 분류 모델)

  • Kim, Sam-Keun;Ahn, Jae-Geun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2021
  • Tomato crops are highly affected by tomato diseases, and if not prevented, a disease can cause severe losses for the agricultural economy. Therefore, there is a need for a system that quickly and accurately diagnoses various tomato diseases. In this paper, we propose a system that classifies nine diseases as well as healthy tomato plants by applying various pretrained deep learning-based CNN models trained on an ImageNet dataset. The tomato leaf image dataset obtained from PlantVillage is provided as input to ResNet, Xception, and DenseNet, which have deep learning-based CNN architectures. The proposed models were constructed by adding a top-level classifier to the basic CNN model, and they were trained by applying a 5-fold cross-validation strategy. All three of the proposed models were trained in two stages: transfer learning (which freezes the layers of the basic CNN model and then trains only the top-level classifiers), and fine-tuned learning (which sets the learning rate to a very small number and trains after unfreezing basic CNN layers). SGD, RMSprop, and Adam were applied as optimization algorithms. The experimental results show that the DenseNet CNN model to which the RMSprop algorithm was applied output the best results, with 98.63% accuracy.

A Proposal of Remaining Useful Life Prediction Model for Turbofan Engine based on k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN을 활용한 터보팬 엔진의 잔여 유효 수명 예측 모델 제안)

  • Kim, Jung-Tae;Seo, Yang-Woo;Lee, Seung-Sang;Kim, So-Jung;Kim, Yong-Geun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.611-620
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    • 2021
  • The maintenance industry is mainly progressing based on condition-based maintenance after corrective maintenance and preventive maintenance. In condition-based maintenance, maintenance is performed at the optimum time based on the condition of equipment. In order to find the optimal maintenance point, it is important to accurately understand the condition of the equipment, especially the remaining useful life. Thus, using simulation data (C-MAPSS), a prediction model is proposed to predict the remaining useful life of a turbofan engine. For the modeling process, a C-MAPSS dataset was preprocessed, transformed, and predicted. Data pre-processing was performed through piecewise RUL, moving average filters, and standardization. The remaining useful life was predicted using principal component analysis and the k-NN method. In order to derive the optimal performance, the number of principal components and the number of neighbor data for the k-NN method were determined through 5-fold cross validation. The validity of the prediction results was analyzed through a scoring function while considering the usefulness of prior prediction and the incompatibility of post prediction. In addition, the usefulness of the RUL prediction model was proven through comparison with the prediction performance of other neural network-based algorithms.

Development of Prediction Model for Sugar Content of Strawberry Using NIR Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광을 이용한 딸기의 당도예측모델 개발)

  • Son, Jaeryong;Lee, Kangjin;Kang, Sukwon;Yang, Gilmo;Seo, Youngwook
    • Food Engineering Progress
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.297-301
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    • 2009
  • This study was performed to develop a prediction model of sugar content for strawberry. Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been prevailed for on-line and portable applications for non-invasive quality assessment of intact fruit. This work presents effects of illumination method and coating of reflection surface of light source on prediction result of sugar content. Effect of preprocessing methods was also examined. A low-cost commercially available VIS/NIR spectrometer was used for estimation of total soluble solids content (Brix). To predict sugar contents of strawberry, the best results were obtained with the spectrum data measured under intensive illuminations at three locations induced from the light source with fiber optic bundles. Gold coating of reflection surface of light source lamp gave favorable effect to prediction result. The best results in validation of PLSR model were $r_{SEP}$ = 0.891 and SEP = 0.443 Brix under OSC preprocessing and those of PCR were $r_{SEP}$ = 0.845, SEP $r_{SEP}$= 0.520 Brix, under no preprocessing.

Optimization of the Conditions of Flavonoid Extraction From Tartary Buckwheat Sprout Using Response Surface Methodology (반응표면분석법을 이용한 타타리메밀싹에서 플라보노이드 추출 최적화)

  • Shin, Jiyoung;Choi, Iseul;Hwang, Jinwoo;Yang, Junho;Lee, Yoonhyeong;Kim, So-i;Cha, Eunji;Yang, Ji-Young
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.1101-1108
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    • 2020
  • Tartary buckwheat is a grain with many flavonoids, such as rutin, quercetin, kaempferol, and myricetin. This study aimed to optimize extraction conditions to maximize the rutin, quercetin, and myricetin contents of tartary buckwheat sprout extracts using response surface methodology. A BoxBehnken design containing 15 experiments was employed to evaluate the effects of extraction conditions, such as temperature (X1, 50~70℃), extraction time (X2, 5~9 hr), and ethanol concentration (X3, 60~90%). The coefficients of determination (R2) for all the dependent variables (extraction temperature, extraction time, and extraction ethanol concentration) were determined to be over 0.95, indicating significance. The p-value of the model in lack of fit was over 0.1 than means, indicating that the model was well predicted. The optimal extraction conditions for rutin, quercetin, and myricetin contents were obtained at X1 = 51.03, X2 = 6.62, and X3 = 69.16, respectively. Under these optimal conditions, the predicted rutin, quercetin, and myricetin contents were 808.467 ㎍/ml, 193.296 ㎍/ml, and 37.360 ㎍/ml, respectively. For the validation of the model, ten experiments were performed and the experimental rutin and quercetin contents were measured at 802.84±8.49 ㎍/ml, 193.76±2.80 ㎍/ml, and 34.84±0.43 ㎍/ml, respectively. The experimental rutin and quercetin contents were similar to the predicted contents, but the experimental myricetin content was lower than predicted.

Determination of Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients With Distant Lymph Node Metastasis Using Prealbumin Level and Prothrombin Time: Contour Plots Based on Random Survival Forest Algorithm on High-Dimensionality Clinical and Laboratory Datasets

  • Zhang, Cheng;Xie, Minmin;Zhang, Yi;Zhang, Xiaopeng;Feng, Chong;Wu, Zhijun;Feng, Ying;Yang, Yahui;Xu, Hui;Ma, Tai
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.120-134
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aimed to identify prognostic factors for patients with distant lymph node-involved gastric cancer (GC) using a machine learning algorithm, a method that offers considerable advantages and new prospects for high-dimensional biomedical data exploration. Materials and Methods: This study employed 79 features of clinical pathology, laboratory tests, and therapeutic details from 289 GC patients whose distant lymphadenopathy was presented as the first episode of recurrence or metastasis. Outcomes were measured as any-cause death events and survival months after distant lymph node metastasis. A prediction model was built based on possible outcome predictors using a random survival forest algorithm and confirmed by 5×5 nested cross-validation. The effects of single variables were interpreted using partial dependence plots. A contour plot was used to visually represent survival prediction based on 2 predictive features. Results: The median survival time of patients with GC with distant nodal metastasis was 9.2 months. The optimal model incorporated the prealbumin level and the prothrombin time (PT), and yielded a prediction error of 0.353. The inclusion of other variables resulted in poorer model performance. Patients with higher serum prealbumin levels or shorter PTs had a significantly better prognosis. The predicted one-year survival rate was stratified and illustrated as a contour plot based on the combined effect the prealbumin level and the PT. Conclusions: Machine learning is useful for identifying the important determinants of cancer survival using high-dimensional datasets. The prealbumin level and the PT on distant lymph node metastasis are the 2 most crucial factors in predicting the subsequent survival time of advanced GC.

Backpack- and UAV-based Laser Scanning Application for Estimating Overstory and Understory Biomass of Forest Stands (임분 상하층의 바이오매스 조사를 위한 백팩형 라이다와 드론 라이다의 적용성 평가)

  • Heejae Lee;Seunguk Kim;Hyeyeong Choe
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.3
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    • pp.363-373
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    • 2023
  • Forest biomass surveys are regularly conducted to assess and manage forests as carbon sinks. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), a remote sensing technology, has attracted considerable attention, as it allows for objective acquisition of forest structure information with minimal labor. In this study, we propose a method for estimating overstory and understory biomass in forest stands using backpack laser scanning (BPLS) and unmanned aerial vehicle laser scanning (UAV-LS), and assessed its accuracy. For overstory biomass, we analyzed the accuracy of BPLS and UAV-LS in estimating diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height. For understory biomass, we developed a multiple regression model for estimating understory biomass using the best combination of vertical structure metrics extracted from the BPLS data. The results indicated that BPLS provided accurate estimations of DBH (R2 =0.92), but underestimated tree height (R2 =0.63, bias=-5.56 m), whereas UAV-LS showed strong performance in estimating tree height (R2 =0.91). For understory biomass, metrics representing the mean height of the points and the point density of the fourth layer were selected to develop the model. The cross-validation result of the understory biomass estimation model showed a coefficient of determination of 0.68. The study findings suggest that the proposed overstory and understory biomass survey methods using BPLS and UAV-LS can effectively replace traditional biomass survey methods.

Toxicity of Organophosphorus Flame Retardants (OPFRs) and Their Mixtures in Aliivibrio fischeri and Human Hepatocyte HepG2 (인체 간세포주 HepG2 및 발광박테리아를 활용한 유기인계 난연제와 그 혼합물의 독성 스크리닝)

  • Sunmi Kim;Kyounghee Kang;Jiyun Kim;Minju Na;Jiwon Choi
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2023
  • Background: Organophosphorus flame retardants (OPFRs) are a group of chemical substances used in building materials and plastic products to suppress or mitigate the combustion of materials. Although OPFRs are generally used in mixed form, information on their mixture toxicity is quite scarce. Objectives: This study aims to elucidate the toxicity and determine the types of interaction (e.g., synergistic, additive, and antagonistic effect) of OPFRs mixtures. Methods: Nine organophosphorus flame retardants, including TEHP (tris(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate) and TDCPP (tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate), were selected based on indoor dust measurement data in South Korea. Nine OPFRs were exposed to the luminescent bacteria Aliivibrio fischeri for 30 minutes and the human hepatocyte cell line HepG2 for 48 hours. Chemicals with significant toxicity were only used for mixture toxicity tests in HepG2. In addition, the observed ECx values were compared with the predicted toxicity values in the CA (concentration addition) prediction model, and the MDR (model deviation ratio) was calculated to determine the type of interaction. Results: Only four chemicals showed significant toxicity in the luminescent bacteria assays. However, EC50 values were derived for seven out of nine OPFRs in the HepG2 assays. In the HepG2 assays, the highest to lowest EC50 were in the order of the molecular weight of the target chemicals. In the further mixture tests, most binary mixtures show additive interactions except for the two combinations that have TPhP (triphenyl phosphate), i.e., TPhP and TDCPP, and TPhP and TBOEP (tris(2-butoxyethyl) phosphate). Conclusions: Our data shows OPFR mixtures usually have additivity; however, more research is needed to find out the reason for the synergistic effect of TPhP. Also, the mixture experimental dataset can be used as a training and validation set for developing the mixture toxicity prediction model as a further step.