• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.9
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• pp.263-269
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• 2022

The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam's economy from the period 2008-2022. We found that Vietnam's output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam's policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam's economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.352-366
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• 2021

To decrease Europe's harmful emissions, the European Union aims to substantially increase its offshore wind energy capacity. To further develop offshore wind energy, investment in ever-larger construction vessels is necessary. However, this market is characterised by seemingly unpredictable growth of market demand, turbine capacity and distance from shore. Currently it is difficult to deal with such market uncertainty within the ship design process. This research aims to develop a method that is able to deal with market uncertainty in early ship design by increasing knowledge when design freedom is still high. The method uses uncertainty modelling prior to the requirement definition stage by performing global research into the market, and during the concept design stage by iteratively co-evolving the vessel design and business case in parallel. The method consists of three parts; simulating an expected market from data, modelling multiple vessel designs, and an uncertainty model that evaluates the performance of the vessels in the market. The case study into offshore wind foundation installation vessels showed that the method can provide valuable insight into the effect of ship parameters like main dimensions, crane size and ship speed on the performance in an uncertain market. These results were used to create a value robust design, which is capable of handling uncertainty without changes to the vessel. The developed method thus provides a way to deal with market uncertainty in the early ship design process.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.4447-4464
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• 2023

This paper focuses on the development of a new computational model of the CNESTEN's TRIGA Mark II research reactor using the 3D continuous energy Monte-Carlo code TRIPOLI-4 (T4). This new model was developed to assess neutronic simulations and determine quantities of interest such as kinetic parameters of the reactor, control rods worth, power peaking factors and neutron flux distributions. This model is also a key tool used to accurately design new experiments in the TRIGA reactor, to analyze these experiments and to carry out sensitivity and uncertainty studies. The geometry and materials data, as part of the MCNP reference model, were used to build the T4 model. In this regard, the differences between the two models are mainly due to mathematical approaches of both codes. Indeed, the study presented in this article is divided into two parts: the first part deals with the development and the validation of the T4 model. The results obtained with the T4 model were compared to the existing MCNP reference model and to the experimental results from the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Different core configurations were investigated via simulations to test the computational model reliability in predicting the physical parameters of the reactor. As a fairly good agreement among the results was deduced, it seems reasonable to assume that the T4 model can accurately reproduce the MCNP calculated values. The second part of this study is devoted to the sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) studies that were carried out to quantify the nuclear data uncertainty in the multiplication factor k_eff. For that purpose, the T4 model was used to calculate the sensitivity profiles of the k_eff to the nuclear data. The integrated-sensitivities were compared to the results obtained from the previous works that were carried out with MCNP and SCALE-6.2 simulation tools and differences of less than 5% were obtained for most of these quantities except for the C-graphite sensitivities. Moreover, the nuclear data uncertainties in the k_eff were derived using the COMAC-V2.1 covariance matrices library and the calculated sensitivities. The results have shown that the total nuclear data uncertainty in the k_eff is around 585 pcm using the COMAC-V2.1. This study also demonstrates that the contribution of zirconium isotopes to the nuclear data uncertainty in the k_eff is not negligible and should be taken into account when performing S/U analysis.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.359-398
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• 2017

Uncertainty is central to energy and climate policy. A growing number of literature show that almost all components of energy and climate models are, to some extent, uncertain and that the effect of uncertainty on the model outputs, in turn policy recommendations, is significantly large. Most existing energy and climate-economy models developed and used in Korea, however, do not take uncertainty into account explicitly. Rather, many models conduct a deterministic analysis or do a simple (limited) sensitivity analysis. In order to help social planners to make more robust decisions (across various plausible situations) on energy and climate change issues, an uncertainty analysis should be conducted. As a first step, this paper reviews the theory of decision making under uncertainty and the method for addressing uncertainty of existing probabilistic energy and climate-economy models. In addition, the paper proposes a strategy to apply an uncertainty analysis to energy and climate-economy models used in Korea. Applying the uncertainty analysis techniques, this paper revises the FUND model and investigates the impacts of climate change in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.8
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• pp.509-520
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• 2023

Various drought indices are widely used for assessing drought conditions which are affected by many factors such as precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff. The values of drought indices varies depending on hydro-meteorological data and calculation formulas, and the judgment of the drought condition may also vary. This study selected four calculation components such as precipitation data length, accumulation period, probability distribution function, and parameter estimation method as the sources of uncertainty in the calculation of standardized precipitation index (SPI), and evaluated their contributions to the uncertainty using root mean square error (RMSE) and linear mixed model (LMM). The RMSE estimated the overall errors in the SPI calculation, and the LMM was used to quantify the uncertainty contribution of each factor. The results showed that as the accumulation period increased and the data period extended, the RMSEs decreased. The comparison of relative uncertainty using LMM indicated that the sample size had the greatest impact on the SPI calculation. In addition, as sample size increased, the relative uncertainty related to the sample size used for SPI calculation decreased and the relative uncertainty associated with accumulation period and parameter estimation increased. In conclusion, to reduce the uncertainty in the SPI calculation, it is essential to collect long-term data first, followed by the appropriate selection of probability distribution models and parameter estimation methods that represent well the data characteristics.

• Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.198-206
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• 2009

This paper presents the reduction of the positional uncertainty of an ultrasonic sensor ring with overlapped beam pattern for the efficient obstacle detection of a mobile robot. Basically, it is assumed that a relatively small number of inexpensive low directivity ultrasonic sensors are installed at regular spacings along the side of a circular mobile robot with their beams overlapped. First, for both single and double obstacles, we show that the positional uncertainty inherent to an ultrasonic sensor can be reduced using the overlapped beam pattern, and also quantify the relative improvement in positional uncertainty. Second, given measured distance data from one or two ultrasonic sensors, we devise the geometric method to determine the position of an obstacle with respect to the center of a mobile robot. Third, we examine and compare existing ultrasonic sensor models, including Gaussian distribution, parabolic distribution, uniform distribution, and impulse, and then build the sensor model of overlapped ultrasonic sensors, adequate for obstacle detection in terms of positional uncertainty and computational requirement. Finally, through experiments using our prototype ultrasonic sensor ring, the validity of overlapped beam pattern for reduced positional uncertainty and efficient obstacle detection is demonstrated.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.684-701
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• 2016

The Gaussian process model (GPM) is a flexible surrogate model that can be used for nonparametric regression for multivariate problems. A unique feature of the GPM is that a prediction variance is automatically provided with the regression function. In this paper, we estimate the safety margin of a nuclear power plant by performing regression on the output of best-estimate simulations of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident with sampling of safety system configuration, sequence timing, technical specifications, and thermal hydraulic parameter uncertainties. The key aspect of our approach is that the GPM regression is only performed on the dominant input variables, the safety injection flow rate and the delay time for AC powered pumps to start representing sequence timing uncertainty, providing a predictive model for the peak clad temperature during a reflood phase. Other uncertainties are interpreted as contributors to the measurement noise of the code output and are implicitly treated in the GPM in the noise variance term, providing local uncertainty bounds for the peak clad temperature. We discuss the applicability of the foregoing method to reduce the use of conservative assumptions in best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) and Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) success criteria definitions while dealing with a large number of uncertainties.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.64-69
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• 1993

In this paper we present the performance bounds of the optimal FIR filter in continuous time systems with modeling uncertainty. The performance measure bounds are calculated from the estimation error covariance bounds of the optimal FIR filter and the suboptimal FIR filter. Performance error bounds range are expressed by the upper bounds on the estimation error covariance difference between the real and nominal values in case of the systems with noise uncertainty or model uncertainty. The performance bounds of the systems are derived on the assumption that the system uncertainty and the estimation error covariance are imperfectly known a priori. The estimation error bounds of the optimal FIR filter is compared with those of the Kalman filter via a numerical example applied to the estimation of the motion of an aircraft carrier at sea, which shows the former has better performances than the latter.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.43-65
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• 2008

This study investigates the effects of business environment on the e-business strategy and performance of venture firms. The development of the research model is based on the empirical studies on the strategy literature. The data from the survey was analyzed using Partial Least Squares(PLS). For Daedeok Valley Venture Firms, product innovation differentiation strategy is affected by environmental uncertainty. And, cost leadership strategy tend to be influence by environmental uncertainty. Finally, venture firm's performance is effected by cost leadership strategy and marketing differentiation strategy. However, for in Hsinchu Science Park Venture Firms, product innovation differentiation strategy is affected by environmental uncertainty and heterogeneity. And, marketing differentiation strategy is enhanced by environment uncertainty and industry growth. In addition, cost leadership strategy tend to be influence by environmental uncertainty and heterogeneity. Finally, venture firm's performance is effected by cost leadership strategy and product innovation differentiation strategy.

• Applied Science and Convergence Technology
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.103-112
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• 2014

The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science (KRISS) has three major vacuum systems: an ultrasonic interferometer manometer (UIM; Section II, Figs. 1 and 2) for a low vacuum, a static expansion system (SES; Section III, Figs. 3 and 4) for a medium vacuum, and an orifice-type dynamic expansion system (DES, Section IV, Figs. 5 and 6) for high and ultra-high vacuum systems. For each system, explicit measurement model equations with multiple variables are given. According to ISO standards, all of these system variable errors were used to calculate the expanded uncertainty (U). For each system, the expanded uncertainties (k = 1, confidence level = 95%) and relative expanded uncertainty (expanded uncertainty/generated pressure) levels are summarized in Table 4. Within the uncertainty limits, our bilateral and key comparisons [CCM.P-K4 (10 Pa to 1 kPa)] are extensive and in good agreement with those of other nations (Fig. 8 and Table 5).