• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model Ensemble

Search Result 638, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Assimilation of Satellite-Based Soil Moisture (SMAP) in KMA GloSea6: The Results of the First Preliminary Experiment (기상청 GloSea의 위성관측 기반 토양수분(SMAP) 동화: 예비 실험 분석)

  • Ji, Hee-Sook;Hwang, Seung-On;Lee, Johan;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Ryu, Young;Boo, Kyung-On
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.32 no.4
    • /
    • pp.395-409
    • /
    • 2022
  • A new soil moisture initialization scheme is applied to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6). It is designed to ingest the microwave soil moisture retrievals from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) radiometer using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). In this technical note, we describe the procedure of the newly-adopted initialization scheme, the change of soil moisture states by assimilation, and the forecast skill differences for the surface temperature and precipitation by GloSea6 simulation from two preliminary experiments. Based on a 4-year analysis experiment, the soil moisture from the land-surface model of current operational GloSea6 is found to be drier generally comparing to SMAP observation. LETKF data assimilation shows a tendency toward being wet globally, especially in arid area such as deserts and Tibetan Plateau. Also, it increases soil moisture analysis increments in most soil levels of wetness in land than current operation. The other experiment of GloSea6 forecast with application of the new initialization system for the heat wave case in 2020 summer shows that the memory of soil moisture anomalies obtained by the new initialization system is persistent throughout the entire forecast period of three months. However, averaged forecast improvements are not substantial and mixed over Eurasia during the period of forecast: forecast skill for the precipitation improved slightly but for the surface air temperature rather degraded. Our preliminary results suggest that additional elaborate developments in the soil moisture initialization are still required to improve overall forecast skills.

Implementation of Spatial Downscaling Method Based on Gradient and Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS) for High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Data (고해상도 수치예측자료 생산을 위한 경도-역거리 제곱법(GIDS) 기반의 공간 규모 상세화 기법 활용)

  • Yang, Ah-Ryeon;Oh, Su-Bin;Kim, Joowan;Lee, Seung-Woo;Kim, Chun-Ji;Park, Soohyun
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.31 no.2
    • /
    • pp.185-198
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this study, we examined a spatial downscaling method based on Gradient and Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS) weighting to produce high-resolution grid data from a numerical weather prediction model over Korean Peninsula with complex terrain. The GIDS is a simple and effective geostatistical downscaling method using horizontal distance gradients and an elevation. The predicted meteorological variables (e.g., temperature and 3-hr accumulated rainfall amount) from the Limited-area ENsemble prediction System (LENS; horizontal grid spacing of 3 km) are used for the GIDS to produce a higher horizontal resolution (1.5 km) data set. The obtained results were compared to those from the bilinear interpolation. The GIDS effectively produced high-resolution gridded data for temperature with the continuous spatial distribution and high dependence on topography. The results showed a better agreement with the observation by increasing a searching radius from 10 to 30 km. However, the GIDS showed relatively lower performance for the precipitation variable. Although the GIDS has a significant efficiency in producing a higher resolution gridded temperature data, it requires further study to be applied for rainfall events.

A Study on the Prediction Model for Sales of Women's Golfwear with Data Mining: Focus on Macroeconomic Factors and Consumer Sales Price (데이터마이닝을 적용한 여성 골프웨어 판매 예측 모델 연구: 거시경제요인과 소비자판매가격을 중심으로)

  • Han, Ki-Hyang
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.19 no.11
    • /
    • pp.445-456
    • /
    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the importance of variables affecting women's golf wear sales with macroeconomic variables and consumer selling prices that affect consumers' purchasing behavior, and to propose a price strategy to increase sales of golf wear. Data of domestic women's golf wear brands were analyzed using decision tree algorithms and ensemble. Consumer selling price is the most significant factors in terms of sales volume for T-shirt, pants and knit, while categories were found to be the most important factors in addition to consumer sales prices for skirt and one piece dress. These findings suggest that items have different economic variables that affect consumers' purchasing behavior, suggesting that sales and profits can be maximized through appropriate price strategies.

Proposal of a Learning Model for Mobile App Malicious Code Analysis (모바일 앱 악성코드 분석을 위한 학습모델 제안)

  • Bae, Se-jin;Choi, Young-ryul;Rhee, Jung-soo;Baik, Nam-kyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • 2021.10a
    • /
    • pp.455-457
    • /
    • 2021
  • App is used on mobile devices such as smartphones and also has malicious code, which can be divided into normal and malicious depending on the presence or absence of hacking codes. Because there are many kind of malware, it is difficult to detect directly, we propose a method to detect malicious app using AI. Most of the existing methods are to detect malicious app by extracting features from malicious app. However, the number of types have increased exponentially, making it impossible to detect malicious code. Therefore, we would like to propose two more methods besides detecting malicious app by extracting features from most existing malicious app. The first method is to learn normal app to extract normal's features, as opposed to the existing method of learning malicious app and find abnormalities (malicious app). The second one is an 'ensemble technique' that combines the existing method with the first proposal. These two methods need to be studied so that they can be used in future mobile environment.

  • PDF

An Ensemble Approach for Cyber Bullying Text messages and Images

  • Zarapala Sunitha Bai;Sreelatha Malempati
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.23 no.11
    • /
    • pp.59-66
    • /
    • 2023
  • Text mining (TM) is most widely used to find patterns from various text documents. Cyber-bullying is the term that is used to abuse a person online or offline platform. Nowadays cyber-bullying becomes more dangerous to people who are using social networking sites (SNS). Cyber-bullying is of many types such as text messaging, morphed images, morphed videos, etc. It is a very difficult task to prevent this type of abuse of the person in online SNS. Finding accurate text mining patterns gives better results in detecting cyber-bullying on any platform. Cyber-bullying is developed with the online SNS to send defamatory statements or orally bully other persons or by using the online platform to abuse in front of SNS users. Deep Learning (DL) is one of the significant domains which are used to extract and learn the quality features dynamically from the low-level text inclusions. In this scenario, Convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used for training the text data, images, and videos. CNN is a very powerful approach to training on these types of data and achieved better text classification. In this paper, an Ensemble model is introduced with the integration of Term Frequency (TF)-Inverse document frequency (IDF) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) with advanced feature-extracting techniques to classify the bullying text, images, and videos. The proposed approach also focused on reducing the training time and memory usage which helps the classification improvement.

A Study on the Surface Damage Detection Method of the Main Tower of a Special Bridge Using Drones and A.I. (드론과 A.I.를 이용한 특수교 주탑부 표면 손상 탐지 방법 연구)

  • Sungjin Lee;Bongchul Joo;Jungho Kim;Taehee Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.129-136
    • /
    • 2023
  • A special offshore bridge with a high pylon has special structural features.Special offshore bridges have inspection blind spots that are difficult to visually inspect. To solve this problem, safety inspection methods using drones are being studied. In this study, image data of the pylon of a special offshore bridge was acquired using a drone. In addition, an artificial intelligence algorithm was developed to detect damage to the pylon surface. The AI algorithm utilized a deep learning network with different structures. The algorithm applied the stacking ensemble learning method to build a model that formed the ensemble and collect the results.

Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5 (상세화된 CMIP5 기후변화전망의 다중모델앙상블 접근에 의한 농업기후지수 평가)

  • Chung, Uran;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.108-125
    • /
    • 2015
  • The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the agro-climate index can always be changed since the index is not the absolute. Recently, many studies which consider uncertainty of future climate change have been actively conducted using multi-model ensemble (MME) approach by developing and improving dynamic and statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) output. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as growing degree day based on $5^{\circ}C$, plant period based on $5^{\circ}C$, crop period based on $10^{\circ}C$, and frost free day were calculated for assessment of the spatio-temporal variations and uncertainties of the indices according to climate change; the downscaled historical (1976-2005) and near future (2011-2040) RCP climate sceneries of AR5 were applied to the calculation of the index. The result showed four agro-climatic indices calculated by nine individual GCMs as well as MME agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that MME, as well as each individual GCM emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Seumjin and Yeoungsan). However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual GCMs showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of the four Rivers. The four agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were expected to increase in nine individual GCMs and MME in future climate scenarios. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required although the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual GCMs in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work.

MEASUREMENT OF FLOW DISTRIBUTION IN A STRAIGHT DUCT OF RAILWAY TUNNEL MOCK-UP USING PIV AND COMPARISON WITH NUMERICAL SIMULATION (PIV 기법을 이용한 모형철도터널 직관덕트에서 유동 분포 계측 및 수치해석 결과와의 비교분석)

  • Jang, Y.J.;Jung, W.S.;Park, I.S.
    • Journal of computational fluids engineering
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.39-45
    • /
    • 2010
  • The turbulent flows in a tunnel mock-up($10L{\times}0.5W{\times}0.25H$ m3 : scale reduction 1/20) with rectangular cross section were investigated. The instantaneous velocity fields of Re = 49,029, 89,571 were measured by the 2-D PIV system which is consisted of double pulsed Nd:Yag laser and the tracer particles in the straight-duct mock-up where the flows were fully developed. The mean velocity profiles were taken from the ensemble averages of 1,000 instantaneous velocity fields. Simultaneously, numerical simulations(RANS) were performed to compare with experimental data using STREAM code. Non-linear eddy viscosity model (NLEVM : Abe-Jang-Leschziner Eddy Viscosity Model) was employed to resolve the turbulent flows in the duct. The calculated mean velocity profiles were well compared with PIV results. In the log-law profiles, the experimental data were in good agreement with numerical simulations all the way to the wake region except the viscous sub-layer (near wall region).

Development of the Seasonal Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) System Using the Regional Unified Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (기상청 통합지역모델을 이용한 계절 한국형 항공난류 예측시스템(계절-KTG) 개발)

  • Lee, Dan-Bi;Chun, Hye-Yeong
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.235-243
    • /
    • 2014
  • Sources of aviation turbulence vary through the seasons, especially in the East Asia including Korean peninsula, associated primarily with the changes in the jet/front system and convective activities. For this reason, a seasonal Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) system (seasonal-KTG) is developed in the present study by using pilot reports (PIREPs) and analysis data of the operational Unified Model (UM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for two years between June 2011 and May 2013. Twenty best diagnostics of aviation turbulence in each season are selected by the method of probability of detection (POD) using the PIREPs and UM data. After calculating a weighting value of each selected diagnostics using their area under curve (AUC), the 20 best diagnostics are combined with the weighting scores into a single ensemble-averaged index by season. Compared with the current operational-KTG system that is based on the diagnostics applying all seasons, the performances of the seasonal-KTG system are better in all seasons, except in fall.

Development of benthic macroinvertebrate species distribution models using the Bayesian optimization (베이지안 최적화를 통한 저서성 대형무척추동물 종분포모델 개발)

  • Go, ByeongGeon;Shin, Jihoon;Cha, Yoonkyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
    • /
    • v.35 no.4
    • /
    • pp.259-275
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study explored the usefulness and implications of the Bayesian hyperparameter optimization in developing species distribution models (SDMs). A variety of machine learning (ML) algorithms, namely, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), boosted regression tree (BRT), XGBoost (XGB), and Multilayer perceptron (MLP) were used for predicting the occurrence of four benthic macroinvertebrate species. The Bayesian optimization method successfully tuned model hyperparameters, with all ML models resulting an area under the curve (AUC) > 0.7. Also, hyperparameter search ranges that generally clustered around the optimal values suggest the efficiency of the Bayesian optimization in finding optimal sets of hyperparameters. Tree based ensemble algorithms (BRT, RF, and XGB) tended to show higher performances than SVM and MLP. Important hyperparameters and optimal values differed by species and ML model, indicating the necessity of hyperparameter tuning for improving individual model performances. The optimization results demonstrate that for all macroinvertebrate species SVM and RF required fewer numbers of trials until obtaining optimal hyperparameter sets, leading to reduced computational cost compared to other ML algorithms. The results of this study suggest that the Bayesian optimization is an efficient method for hyperparameter optimization of machine learning algorithms.