• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.138-142
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• 2005

The change of precipitation and temperature due to the global. warming eventually caused the variation of water availability in terms of potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff. In this reason national long-term water resource planning should be considered the effect of climate change. Study of AOGCM-based scenario to proposed the plausible future states of the climate system has become increasingly important for hydrological impact assessment. Future climate changes over East Asia are projected from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) method (Min et al. 2004). MME method is used to reduce the uncertainty of individual models. However, the uncertainty increases are larger over the small area than the large area. It is demonstrated that the temperature increases is larger over continental area than oceanic area in the 21st century.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.548-551
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• 2009

The report of the intergovernment panel on climate change(IPCC) concluded that the global warning due to Green-house Gas(GHGs) will be accelerated in the 21th century. The railroad construction sector consumes a great deal of natural resources and energy in construction. maintenance, and demolition stage. In order to establish and perform reducing plan of GHGs of railway track system for effective corresponding the Climate Change Agreement, the evaluation method of the lifecycle CO2 emission if needed. In this research, it was investigates that the research trend for the LCCO2 and the method to estimate the lifecycle carbon dioxide emission amount of the railway track system as quantitative.

• Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.213-223
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• 2016

The validity of landfill gas models is an important problem considering that they are frequently used for landfill-site-related policy making and energy recovery planning. In this study, the Monte Carlo method was applied to an landfill gas generation model in order to enhance conformity. Results show that the relative mean deviation between measured data and modeled results (MD) decreased from 19.8% to 11.7% after applying the uncertainty range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the methane-generation potential and reaction constants. Additionally, when let reaction constant adjust derived errors from all other modeling components, such as model logic, gauging waste, and measured methane data, MD decreased to 6.6% and the disparity in total methane generation quantity to 2.1%.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.347-355
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• 2017

Methane and nitrous oxide are main greenhouse gases from agricultural system and their global warming potential are 25 and 258 times stronger than that of $CO_2$, respectively. In 2016, the emission was $21,290Gg\;tone\;CO_2-eq$. which was emitted from agriculture sector and about 3.1% of total GHG emission of Korea. Those guidelines that were published by IPCC have methodology for GHGs emission calculation as well as emission factor and so on. For recent 5 years, GHGs emissions in Korea have calculated by MRV which has been improved every year based on IPCC guidelines. Analysis as estimating method improvement showed that the methane emissions from rice cultivation were the lowest on 2012 methodology, and the highest on 2014 methodology. On the other hand, the emissions of agricultural soils were the lowest on 2015 methodology and the highest on 2012 methodology. Total emissions from agriculture sector were the lowest on 2015 methodology and the highest on 2012 methodology. Compared with 2016 methodology, the GHGs emitted as few as $-1,865Gg\;tone\;CO_2-eq$ and as many as $2,717Gg\;tone\;CO_2-eq$. GHGs emissions can vary greatly, depending on how to use the emission factor and activity data. Therefore, it need constantly a detailed analysis for methodology and GHGs emission in the future.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.51-57
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• 2010

Recently the number of motorcycles has increased in urban area, and it is believed that motorcycle is one of the air pollution and greenhouse gas emission sources. But the greenhouse gas emission from motorcycle has been high uncertainty due investigation of a lack of activity data and emission factors in Korea. So in this study, the greenhouse gas emission from motorcycle is estimated by considering the population of moped and VKT(vehicle kilometers travelled) of motorcycle by recent other studies. And the emissions by IPCC Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodology are calculated and compared. As the results, the nationwide $CO_2$ equivalent emissions from motorcycles by Tier 2 and Tier 3 method are calculated as 2,758 kton/yr and 2,739 kton/yr in 2008. The contribution ratio of this emission is estimated as 2.7% in on-road transport sector.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.574-584
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• 2003

The most common deterioration cause of concrete structures in urban environment is carbonation. Recently, the $CO_2$ concentration and temperature at atmosphere is sharply increased with time due to global warming phenomena. In this study, the climate scenario IS92a, which was suggested by the IPCC, is used to consider temperature and atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration change in the model of service life prediction. The modified mathematical solution, which was based on the Fick's 1st law of diffusion, was used to reflect concrete materials properties such as the degree of hydration of concrete with elapsed time, and important parameters, which associated with deterioration rate. The techniques of service life prediction are developed introducing the method of reliability and stochastic concept to consider microclimatic condition in Seoul, South Korea. From the result of service life prediction, concrete containing high W/C ratio is shown fast carbonation rate due to $CO_2$ concentration increase. It is concluded that the deterioration of concrete structures due to carbonation is insignificant problem on the conditions that below W/C 55%, well curing concrete.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.98 no.3
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• pp.324-330
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• 2009

The objective of this study is to estimate the carbon sequestration in forest stands using KOMPSAT-2 imagery. For estimating the amount of carbon sequestration, the stand biomass of forest was estimated with the total weight, which was the sum of individual tree weight. Individual tree volumes could be estimated by the crown width extracted from KOMPSAT-2 imagery. In particular, the carbon conversion index and the ratio of the $CO_2$ molecular weight to the C atomic weight, reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline, was used to convert the stand biomass into the amount of carbon sequestration. Thereafter, the KOMPSAT-2 imagery was classified with the segment based classification (SBC) method in order to quantify carbon sequestration by tree species. This approach, estimating the amount of carbon sequestration for certain species in stand, can be available to extend plot-based carbon sequestration to stand-based carbon sequestration.

• Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.29-39
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• 2010

Climate change recently causes rapid rises in sea level in Baramarae intertidal area and the rises present several socio-economic impacts to the affected area. We have assessed the vulnerability of the region by the rise of the sea level. Using quantitative GIS method on multi-temporal satellite images, we have first estimated the elevation (Digital Elevation Model: DEM) of Baramarae intertidal area and hence we were possibly able to identify the flooded areas under the IPCC SRES scenarios. As sea level rises by 20cm, 30cm, 40cm, 50cm and 60 cm, the estimated flooded areas of the tidal flat are 68ha, 85ha, 103ha, 121ha and 139ha, respectively. The most affected area is the tidal flat in Gagyeongju Village (Gonam-li, Gonam-myeon, Taean, Chungnam), because it has not only lower altitude but also, perhaps more significantly smooth slope. The potential affected areas are currently populated by farming of oysters and short-necked clams and therefore the areas expect significant economic loss by rise of sea level.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.39 no.12
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• pp.672-678
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• 2017

In this study, municipal solid waste (MSW) has collected 3 times and physico-chemical analysis has done. Nitrous oxide emissions from MSW incineration plant were measured continuously by EPA Method 18 and it was compared with the emission by calculation using the emission factor. The $N_2O$ emission of MSW incineration plant was more than twice as large as the emission by calculation. It was found that the installation of abatement facilities in MSW incineration plant is effective in achieving the greenhouse reduction targets and it can be ensure economical efficiency through emission trading system.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.149-161
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• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.