• Title/Summary/Keyword: Meteorological Modeling

Search Result 337, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Analysis of Upper- and Lower-level Wind and Trajectory in and from China During the P eriod of Occurrence of Migratory Insect Pests of South Korea (비래해충 발생기간 중국 발원지 바람 및 한반도 유입 궤적 분석)

  • Jung-Hyuk Kang;Seung-Jae Lee;Joo-Yeol Baek;Nak-Jung Choi
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.415-426
    • /
    • 2023
  • In this study, the horizontal and vertical structure of wind speed and wind direction were analyzed at the origin of migratory insect pests in China. Wind rose analysis was carried out using the Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) - WRF data, which has the spatiotemporal resolution of about 20 km and 1 hour intervals. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) was employed for backward trajectory analysis between South Korea and Southeastern China with Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). The research interest date is July 16, when rice planthopper and leafhopper were observed at the same time. In order to examine where a jet stream occurs in the vertical in source regions and South Korea during the period (July 8 to July 17 in 2021), three-dimensional wind information was extracted and analyzed using the east-west, north-south, and vertical component wind data of the LAM P. The vertical distribution of wind showed that the wind changed in favor of the inflow of migratory insect pests during the period. As a result of analyzing the wind rose, about 30% or more of the wind at a point close to South Korea was classified into the low-level jet stream. In addition, majority of the wind directions for the low-level jet streams (rather than high-level jet streams) at the five origin sites were heading toward South Korea and even Japan, and this was supported by the HYSPLIT-based backward trajectory analysis.

Study on Improving the Navigational Safety Evaluation Methodology based on Autonomous Operation Technology (자율운항기술 기반의 선박 통항 안전성 평가 방법론 개선 연구)

  • Jun-Mo Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.74-81
    • /
    • 2024
  • In the near future, autonomous ships, ships controlled by shore remote control centers, and ships operated by navigators will coexist and operate the sea together. In the advent of this situation, a method is required to evaluate the safety of the maritime traffic environment. Therefore, in this study, a plan to evaluate the safety of navigation through ship control simulation was proposed in a maritime environment, where ships directly controlled by navigators and autonomous ships coexisted, using autonomous operation technology. Own ship was designed to have autonomous operational functions by learning the MMG model based on the six-DOF motion with the PPO algorithm, an in-depth reinforcement learning technique. The target ship constructed maritime traffic modeling data based on the maritime traffic data of the sea area to be evaluated and designed autonomous operational functions to be implemented in a simulation space. A numerical model was established by collecting date on tide, wave, current, and wind from the maritime meteorological database. A maritime meteorology model was created based on this and designed to reproduce maritime meteorology on the simulator. Finally, the safety evaluation proposed a system that enabled the risk of collision through vessel traffic flow simulation in ship control simulation while maintaining the existing evaluation method.

Development and Application of a Scenario Analysis System for CBRN Hazard Prediction (화생방 오염확산 시나리오 분석 시스템 구축 및 활용)

  • Byungheon Lee;Jiyun Seo;Hyunwoo Nam
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.13-26
    • /
    • 2024
  • The CBRN(Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) hazard prediction model is a system that supports commanders in making better decisions by creating contamination distribution and damage prediction areas based on the weapons used, terrain, and weather information in the events of biochemical and radiological accidents. NBC_RAMS(Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Reporting And Modeling S/W System) developed by ADD (Agency for Defense Development) is used not only supporting for decision making plan for various military operations and exercises but also for post analyzing CBRN related events. With the NBC_RAMS's core engine, we introduced a CBR hazard assessment scenario analysis system that can generate contaminant distribution prediction results reflecting various CBR scenarios, and described how to apply it in specific purposes in terms of input information, meteorological data, land data with land coverage and DEM, and building data with pologon form. As a practical use case, a technology development case is addressed that tracks the origin location of contaminant source with artificial intelligence and a technology that selects the optimal location of a CBR detection sensor with score data by analyzing large amounts of data generated using the CBRN scenario analysis system. Through this system, it is possible to generate AI-specialized CBRN related to training and analysis data and support planning of operation and exercise by predicting battle field.

Modeling of Estimating Soil Moisture, Evapotranspiration and Yield of Chinese Cabbages from Meteorological Data at Different Growth Stages (기상자료(氣象資料)에 의(依)한 배추 생육시기별(生育時期別) 토양수분(土壤水分), 증발산량(蒸發散量) 및 수량(收量)의 추정모형(推定模型))

  • Im, Jeong-Nam;Yoo, Soon-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.386-408
    • /
    • 1988
  • A study was conducted to develop a model for estimating evapotranspiration and yield of Chinese cabbages from meteorological factors from 1981 to 1986 in Suweon, Korea. Lysimeters with water table maintained at 50cm depth were used to measure the potential evapotranspiration and the maximum evapotranspiration in situ. The actual evapotranspiration and the yield were measured in the field plots irrigated with different soil moisture regimes of -0.2, -0.5, and -1.0 bars, respectively. The soil water content throughout the profile was monitored by a neutron moisture depth gauge and the soil water potentials were measured using gypsum block and tensiometer. The fresh weight of Chinese cabbages at harvest was measured as yield. The data collected in situ were analyzed to obtain parameters related to modeling. The results were summarized as followings: 1. The 5-year mean of potential evapotranspiration (PET) gradually increased from 2.38 mm/day in early April to 3.98 mm/day in mid-June, and thereafter, decreased to 1.06 mm/day in mid-November. The estimated PET by Penman, Radiation or Blanney-Criddle methods were overestimated in comparison with the measured PET, while those by Pan-evaporation method were underestimated. The correlation between the estimated and the measured PET, however, showed high significance except for July and August by Blanney-Criddle method, which implied that the coefficients should be adjusted to the Korean conditions. 2. The meteorological factors which showed hgih correlation with the measured PET were temperature, vapour pressure deficit, sunshine hours, solar radiation and pan-evaporation. Several multiple regression equations using meteorological factors were formulated to estimate PET. The equation with pan-evaporation (Eo) was the simplest but highly accurate. PET = 0.712 + 0.705Eo 3. The crop coefficient of Chinese cabbages (Kc), the ratio of the maximum evapotranspiration (ETm) to PET, ranged from 0.5 to 0.7 at early growth stage and from 0.9 to 1.2 at mid and late growth stages. The regression equation with respect to the growth progress degree (G), ranging from 0.0 at transplanting day to 1.0 at the harvesting day, were: $$Kc=0.598+0.959G-0.501G^2$$ for spring cabbages $$Kc=0.402+1.887G-1.432G^2$$ for autumn cabbages 4. The soil factor (Kf), the ratio of the actual evapotranspiration to the maximum evapotranspiration, showed 1.0 when the available soil water fraction (f) was higher than a threshold value (fp) and decreased linearly with decreasing f below fp. The relationships were: Kf=1.0 for $$f{\geq}fp$$ Kf=a+bf for f$$I{\leq}Esm$$ Es = Esm for I > Esm 6. The model for estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) was based on the water balance neglecting capillary rise as: ETa=PET. Kc. Kf+Es 7. The model for estimating relative yield (Y/Ym) was selected among the regression equations with the measured ETa as: Y/Ym=a+bln(ETa) The coefficients and b were 0.07 and 0.73 for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.37 and 0.66 for autumn Chinese cabbages, respectively. 8. The estimated ETa and Y/Ym were compared with the measured values to verify the model established above. The estimated ETa showed disparities within 0.29mm/day for spring Chinese cabbages and 0.19mm/day for autumn Chinese cabbages. The average deviation of the estimated relative yield were 0.14 and 0.09, respectively. 9. The deviations between the estimated values by the model and the actual values obtained from three cropping field experiments after the completion of the model calibration were within reasonable confidence range. Therefore, this model was validated to be used in practical purpose.

  • PDF

Exposure Assessments of Environmental Contaminants in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex, Daegu(I) - Effect zone of environmental pneumoconiosis and fugitive dust - (대구 안심연료단지 환경오염물질 노출 평가(I) - 환경성 진폐증 및 비산먼지 영향권역 -)

  • Jung, Jong-Hyeon;Oh, In-Bo;Phee, Young-Gyu;Nam, Mi-Ran;Hwang, Mi-Kyoung;Bang, Jin-Hee;Jeon, Soo-Bin;Lee, Sang-sup;Yu, Seung-do;KimS, Byung-Seok;Yoo, Seok-Ju;Lee, Kwan;Lim, Hyun-Sul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.366-379
    • /
    • 2015
  • Objectives: The objective of this study is to assess airborne particulate matter(PM) pollution and its effect on health of residents living near Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex in Daegu metropolitan region. Methods: The California Puff(CALPUFF) dispersion model, version 5.8, which can estimate the dispersion direction and range of airborn $PM_{10}$ was used to determine the possible areas affected by $PM_{10}$ pollutants emitted from Ansim briquette fuel complex. The CALPUFF modeling with 200 m grid-cell resolution was performed based on $PM_{10}$ emissions estimated from the amount of coal consumption in the fuel complex for four months in 2012. The Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) fields were processed using CALMET to produce CALPUFF-ready meteorological inputs. Also, the distance from Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex to the residence of each environmental pneumoconiosis patient was analyzed. In addition, the affecting region of the pollutants emitted from briquette factories in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex was determined. Results: CALPUFF modeling results showed that the highest concentrations of $PM_{10}$ were found near around the fuel complex. The modeled $PM_{10}$ distributions were characterized by significant decreases in concentration with distance from the complex. Seasonally, the highest concentration of $45{\mu}g/m^3$ was calculated in October which was mostly due to the distinct variation of amount of emission. Additional modeling with the maximum $PM_{10}$ emission of about 88 tons per year in 1986 showed that the highest concentration in October was nearly increased by 8 times than the concentration modeled with emission of 2010. As a result of medical examination and interviews for the residents in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex and its surroundings, 8 environmental pneumoconiosis patients were found. These patients do not have occupational exposure and history. These patients have lived 0.3~1.1 km area in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex and its surroundings. Conclusions: Airborne particles emitted from Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex can contribute to significant increase in $PM_{10}$ concentration in residential areas near around the complex. Especially, the residents near fuel complex may exposed to the pollutants emitted from the factories in Ansim Briquette Fuel Complex.

The NCAM Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) Version 1: Implementation and Evaluation (국가농림기상센터 지면대기모델링패키지(NCAM-LAMP) 버전 1: 구축 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Song, Jiae;Kim, Yu-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.307-319
    • /
    • 2016
  • A Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) for supporting agricultural and forest management was developed at the National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM). The package is comprised of two components; one is the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) coupled with Noah-Multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) and the other is an offline one-dimensional LSM. The objective of this paper is to briefly describe the two components of the NCAM-LAMP and to evaluate their initial performance. The coupled WRF/Noah-MP system is configured with a parent domain over East Asia and three nested domains with a finest horizontal grid size of 810 m. The innermost domain covers two Gwangneung deciduous and coniferous KoFlux sites (GDK and GCK). The model is integrated for about 8 days with the initial and boundary conditions taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data. The verification variables are 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, 2-m humidity, and surface precipitation for the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. Skill scores are calculated for each domain and two dynamic vegetation options using the difference between the observed data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the simulated data from the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. The accuracy of precipitation simulation is examined using a contingency table that is made up of the Probability of Detection (POD) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). The standalone LSM simulation is conducted for one year with the original settings and is compared with the KoFlux site observation for net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and soil moisture variables. According to results, the innermost domain (810 m resolution) among all domains showed the minimum root mean square error for 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, and 2-m humidity. Turning on the dynamic vegetation had a tendency of reducing 10-m wind simulation errors in all domains. The first nested domain (7,290 m resolution) showed the highest precipitation score, but showed little advantage compared with using the dynamic vegetation. On the other hand, the offline one-dimensional Noah-MP LSM simulation captured the site observed pattern and magnitude of radiative fluxes and soil moisture, and it left room for further improvement through supplementing the model input of leaf area index and finding a proper combination of model physics.

Environmental Health Surveillance of Low Birth Weight in Seoul using Air Monitoring and Birth Data (2002년 서울시 대기오염과 출생 자료를 이용한 저체중아 환경보건감시체계 연구)

  • Seo, Ju-Hee;Kim, Ok-Jin;Kim, Byung-Mi;Park, Hye-Sook;Leem, Jong-Han;Hong, Yun-Chul;Kim, Young-Ju;Ha, Eun-Hee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.40 no.5
    • /
    • pp.363-370
    • /
    • 2007
  • Objectives: The principal objective of this study was to determine the relationship between maternal exposure to air pollution and low birth weight and to propose a possible environmental health surveillance system for low birth weight. Methods: We acquired air monitoring data for Seoul from the Ministry of Environment, the meteorological data from the Korean Meteorological Administration, the exposure assessments from the National Institute of Environmental Research, and the birth data from the Korean National Statistical Office between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2003. The final birth data were limited to singletons within $37{\sim}44$ weeks of gestational age. We defined the Low Birth Weight (LBW) group as infants with birth weights of less than 2500g and calculated the annual LBW rate by district. The air monitoring data were measured for $CO,\;SO_2,\;NO_2,\;and\;PM_{10}$ concentrations at 27 monitoring stations in Seoul. We utilized two models to evaluate the effects of air pollution on low birth weight: the first was the relationship between the annual concentration of air pollution and low birth weight (LBW) by individual and district, and the second involved a GIS exposure model constructed by Arc View 3.1. Results: LBW risk (by Gu, or district) was significantly increased to $1.113(95%\;CI=1.111{\sim}1.116)\;for\;CO,\;1.004(95%\;CI=1.003{\sim}1.005)\;for\;NO_2,\;1.202(95%\;CI=1.199{\sim}1.206\;for\;SO_2,\;and\;1.077(95%\;CI=1.075{\sim}1.078)\;\;for\;PM_{10}$ with each interquartile range change. Personal LBW risk was significantly increased to $1.081(95%\;CI=1.002{\sim}1.166)\;for\;CO,\;1.145(95%\;CI=1.036{\sim}1.267)\;for\;SO_2,\;and\;1.053(95%\;CI=1.002{\sim}1.108)\;for\;PM_{10}$ with each interquartile range change. Personal LBW risk was increased to $1.003(95%\;CI=0.954{\sim}1.055)\;for\;NO_2$, but this was not statistically significant. The air pollution concentrations predicted by GIS positively correlated with the numbers of low birth weights, particularly in highly polluted regions. Conclusions: Environmental health surveillance is a systemic, ongoing collection effort including the analysis of data correlated with environmentally-associated diseases and exposures. In addition. environmental health surveillance allows for a timely dissemination of information to those who require that information in order to take effective action. GIS modeling is crucially important for this purpose, and thus we attempted to develop a GIS-based environmental surveillance system for low birth weight.

Climate Change by Global Warming and Its Effects on Production Efficiency of Lactating Dairy Cows in Korea : a Simulation Modeling Approach (지구온난화에 따른 국내 기후변화와 젖소 착유우의 생산효율에 미치는 영향 평가 : 모델 시뮬레이션을 이용한 접근)

  • Lee, Jung-Jin;Lee, Jun-Sung;Kim, Jong-Nam;Seo, Ja-Keum;Jo, Nam-Chul;Park, Seong-Min;Ki, Kwang-Seok;Seo, Seong-Won
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.711-723
    • /
    • 2013
  • The objectives of this study were to access climate change by global warming in Korea, and to investigate its effects on production efficiency of lactating dairy cows. Two regions, Daegu and Daekwanryung, were selected to represent a warm and a cold area, respectively. Time-series analyses on meteorological records for 25 years (from January 1, 1988 to December 31, 2012) revealed significant and different climate changes in two regions. In the warm area there has been a significant (P<0.05) increase in low temperature during the summer, which can cause heat stress to the animal. On the other hand, a decrease in low temperature during the winter was observed in the cold region (P<0.01), and cold stress in winter can thus be an issue in this region. Simulations using a model integrated the Korean feeding standard for dairy cattle and the environmental effect module of Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System, indicated that a reduction in feed efficiency can be a problem during the winter in the cold region while during the summer in the warm area. We conclude that the effect of climate change by global warming varies in different areas in Korea and a region-specific management strategy should be developed in order to maintain productivity, health and welfare of lactating dairy cows.

Health and environmental risk assesment of air pollutants in Gyeongju and its vicinities(I) (경주 주변지역 대기오염물질의 보건.환경 위해성 평가(I))

  • Jung, Jong-Hyeon;Choi, Won-Joon;Leem, Heon-Ho;Park, Tong-So;Shon, Byung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.10 no.12
    • /
    • pp.3740-3747
    • /
    • 2009
  • To protect the citizens' health of Gyeongju and to secure basic data for the assessment of health and environmental risk, distribution characteristics of meteorological elements were investigated and numerical simulation of wind field using RAMS model was carried out. In addition, measurement and analysis of air pollutants, forecasting the behavior air pollutants using ISC-AEROMOD view, and health and environmental risk-influenced zones were defined through managing air polluting materials to prevent health damage and property damage. According to the survey results of air pollution in Gyeongju and surroundings, average annual concentration of air pollutants in Gyeongju was slightly lower than that in Pohang and Ulsan areas, but concentration of particulate matters and nitrogen dioxide at Gyeongju Station Square and Yonggang Crossing were sometimes higher than that in Pohang and Ulsan areas. Results of the modeling of moving and diffusion of air pollutants that affect citizens' health showed that parts of the 1st through 4th industrial complexes together with POSCO were included in particulate matters and sulfur dioxide influenced areas in Pohang Steel Complex area, and that Haedo-dong, Sangdae-dong, Jecheol-dong and Jangheung-dong in Pohangnam-gu represented locally worsened air quality due to a quantity of air pollutant emission from dense steel industries and large scale industrial facilities.

Prediction on the amount of river water use using support vector machine with time series decomposition (TDSVM을 이용한 하천수 취수량 예측)

  • Choi, Seo Hye;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Moonhyung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.52 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1075-1086
    • /
    • 2019
  • Recently, as the incidence of climate warming and abnormal climate increases, the forecasting of hydrological factors such as precipitation and river flow is getting more complicated, and the risk of water shortage is also increasing. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model for predicting the amount of water intake in mid-term. To this end, the correlation between water intake and meteorological factors, including temperature and precipitation, was used to select input factors. In addition, the amount of water intake increased with time series and seasonal characteristics were clearly shown. Thus, the preprocessing process was performed using the time series decomposition method, and the support vector machine (SVM) was applied to the residual to develop the river intake prediction model. This model has an error of 4.1% on average, which is higher accuracy than the SVM model without preprocessing. In particular, this model has an advantage in mid-term prediction for one to two months. It is expected that the water intake forecasting model developed in this study is useful to be applied for water allocation computation in the permission of river water use, water quality management, and drought measurement for sustainable and efficient management of water resources.