• Title/Summary/Keyword: Measure of Risk

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Development of remote control automatic fire extinguishing system for fire suppression in double-deck tunnel (복층터널 화재대응을 위한 원격 자동소화 시스템 개발 연구)

  • Park, Jinouk;Yoo, Yongho;Kim, Yangkyun;Park, Byoungjik;Kim, Whiseong;Park, Sangheon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2019
  • To effectively deal with the fire in tunnel which is mostly the vehicle fire, it's more important to suppress the fire at early stage. In urban tunnel, however, accessibility to the scene of fire by the fire fighter is very limited due to severe traffic congestion which causes the difficulty with firefighting activity in timely manner and such a problem would be further worsened in underground road (double-deck tunnel) which has been increasingly extended and deepened. In preparation for the disaster in Korea, the range of life safety facilities for installation is defined based on category of the extension and fire protection referring to risk hazard index which is determined depending on tunnel length and conditions, and particularly to directly deal with the tunnel fire, fire extinguisher, indoor hydrant and sprinkler are designated as the mandatory facilities depending on category. But such fire extinguishing installations are found inappropriate functionally and technically and thus the measure to improve the system needs to be taken. Particularly in a double-deck tunnel which accommodates the traffic in both directions within a single tunnel of which section is divided by intermediate slab, the facility or the system which functions more rapidly and effectively is more than important. This study, thus, is intended to supplement the problems with existing tunnel life safety system (fire extinguishing) and develop the remote-controlled automatic fire extinguishing system which is optimized for a double-deck tunnel. Consequently, the system considering low floor height and extended length as well as indoor hydrant for a wide range of use have been developed together with the performance verification and the process for commercialization before applying to the tunnel is underway now.

Pulse wave velocity and ankle brachial index in normal adolescents (정상 청소년에서 맥파 속도와 발목 상완 동맥압 지수에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Ji Hye;Gil, Tae Young;Lee, Hee Woo;Hong, Young Mi
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.549-555
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and ankle brachial index (ABI) are simple, non-invasive methods to assess arterial stiffness. These parameters are also known to be closely related to cardiovascular risk factors and diseases. The purposes of this study were to measure blood pressure, PWV, ABI in healthy Korean adolescents, set up their normal values and assess their correlations. Methods : Three hundred ninety two healthy adolescents (213 boys and 179 girls) underwent measurement of brachial ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), ABI, body mass index(BMI) and blood pressure from four extremities. Linear regression analysis was performed to reveal the correlations between PWV, ABI and independent variables. Results : Blood pressure and PWV were significantly higher in all extremities in males compared to females. Blood pressure of both brachial and ankle showed positive correlation with body weight, height, and BMI, whereas ABI showed no correlation with any of these indices. Conclusion : Blood pressure increases as body weight, height and BMI increases. PWV shows positive correlation with blood pressure. It will be helpful to predict the risks of cardiovascular diseases in adolescents.

Childhood Obesity and Cardiovascular Health: Using 2010-2012 Data of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (아동기 인구 집단의 비만과 심혈관건강: 제5기 국민건강영양조사 자료 이용)

  • Lee, Go Eun;Choo, Jina
    • Korean journal of health promotion
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2017
  • Background: Abdominal obesity as measured by waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) may have stronger and inverse associations with cardiovascular (CV) health than overall obesity as measured by body mass index (BMI). However, there was some challenges for controversies. We aimed to examine the associations of WHtR and BMI with CV health among Korean children using data of the 2010-2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with the sample of 2,363 children by analyzing by gender and two-age groups (10-12 and 13-18 years). Overall obesity was categorized into 3 groups by BMI percentile: non-overweight (<85), overweight (${\geq}85$), and obesity groups (${\geq}95$). Abdominal obesity was categorized into 2 groups by WHtR: normal (<0.5) and abdominal obesity groups (${\geq}0.5$). The CV health score was defined as a z-score by calculating the sum of 7 CV factors. Results: The overweight/obesity groups had significantly lower CV health scores than the normal group (P<0.05) in boys and girls aged either 10-12 years or 13-18 years after adjusting for covariates. The abdominal obesity group also showed significantly lower CV health scores than the normal group (P<0.05) in all the groups; this significant association remained significant in boys aged 13-18 years even after further adjusting for BMI category (P<0.01). Conclusions: Among boys aged 13-18 years, abdominal obesity as measured by WHtR was significantly and inversely associated with CV health, independent of BMI category. Therefore, it should be considered to assess the level of abdominal obesity as a measure of CV health in late adolescent boys.

Relationship Between Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Using Ultrasonography and Diagnostic Indices of Metabolic Syndrome (초음파를 이용한 경동맥 내-중막 두께와 대사증후군 진단지표의 연관성)

  • Ko, Kyung-Sun;Heo, Kyung-Hwa;Won, Yong-Lim;Lee, Sung-Kook;Kim, Ki-Woong
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2009
  • The aim of the present study was undertaken to investigate the association between diagnostic indices of metabolic syndrome(MetS) with carotid intima-media thickness using ultrasonography. The participants in the study were 315 male employees without carotid atherosclerosis and other cardiovascular disease. This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute. Written informed consent for the participants in this study was obtained from all individuals. Anthropometric parameters and biochemical characteristics were done using each specific equipments and the NCEP-ATP III criteria were used to define MetS. They were examined by B-mode ultrasound to measure the carotid intima-media thickness(carotid IMT) at the near and far walls of common carotid and bifurcation(bulb). The mean carotid IMT was $0.739{\pm}0.137\;mm$ and it's thickness significantly increased with the increase in age. Also, amounts of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, triglyceride and fasting glucose were significantly increased with the increase in age. Carotid IMT were significantly correlated with BMI(r=0.170, p=0.004), systolic(r=0.148, p=0.011) and diastolic blood pressure(r=0.123, p=0.036) and HDL-cholesterol(r=-0.164, p=0.005). On multiple logistic regression analysis for the diagnostic indices of MetS, carotid IMT were significantly associated with blood pressure(OR=4.220, p<0.01) and MetS(OR=1.301, p<0.05). The results indicate that blood pressure and MetS are important risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis.

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Decreased Nocturnal Blood Pressure Dipping in Patients with Periodic Limb Movements in Sleep (수면중 주기성 사지 운동에서 나타나는 야간 혈압 강하의 감소)

  • Lee, Mi Hyun;Choi, Jae-Won;Oh, Seong Min;Lee, Yu Jin
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: Previous studies have shown that periodic limb movements in sleep (PLMS) could be one of risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between PLMS and blood pressure changes during sleep. Methods: We analyzed data from 358 adults (176 men and 182 women) aged 18 years and older who were free from sleep apnea syndrome (Respiratory Disturbance Index < 5) and sleep disorders such as REM sleep behavior disorder or narcolepsy. Demographic characteristics, polysomnography records, and clinical variable data including blood pressure, body mass index, alcohol, smoking, and current medications were collected. In addition, self-report questionnaires including the Beck Depression Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index were completed. Blood pressure change from bedtime to awakening was compared between the two periodic limb movement index (PLMI) groups [low PLMI ($PLMI{\leq}15$) and high PLMI (PLMI > 15)]. Blood pressure change patterns were compared using repeated measures analysis of variance. Results: Systolic blood pressure in the high PLMI group was lower than that in the low PLMI group (p = 0.036). These results were also significant when adjusted for gender and age, but were not statistically significant when adjusted for BMI, alcohol, smoking, anti-hypertension medication use and sleep efficiency (p = 0.098). Systolic blood pressure dropped by 9.7 mm Hg in the low PLMI group, and systolic blood pressure in the high PLMI group dropped by 2.9 mm Hg. There was a significant difference in delta systolic blood pressure after sleep between the two groups in women when adjusted for age, BMI, alcohol, smoking, antihypertensive medication use and sleep efficiency (p = 0.023). Conclusion: PLMS was significantly associated with a decreasing pattern in nocturnal BP during sleep, and this association remained significant in women when adjusted for age, BMI, alcohol, smoking, antihypertension medication use and sleep efficiency related to blood pressure. We suggest that PLMS may be associated with cardiovascular morbidity.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

The Reserch on Actual Condition of Crime of Arson Which Occurs in Korea and Its Countermeasures (방화범죄의 실태와 그 대책 - 관심도와 동기의 다양화에 대한 대응 -)

  • Choi, Jong-Tae
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.1
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    • pp.371-408
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    • 1997
  • This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.

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Electronic Roll Book using Electronic Bracelet.Child Safe-Guarding Device System (전자 팔찌를 이용한 전자 출석부.어린이 보호 장치 시스템)

  • Moon, Seung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Nam;Kim, Pan-Su
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2011
  • Lately electronic tagging policy for the sexual offenders was introduced in order to reduce and prevent sexual offences. However, most sexual offences against children happening these days are committed by the tagged offenders whose identities have been released. So, for the crime prevention, we need measures with which we could minimize the suffers more promptly and actively. This paper suggests a new system to relieve the sexual abuse related anxiety of the children and solve the problems that electronic bracelet has. Existing bracelets are only worn by serious criminals, and it's only for risk management and positioning, there is no way to protect the children who are the potential victims of sexual abuse and there actually happened some cases. So we suggest also letting the students(children) wear the LBS(Location Based Service) and USN(Ubiquitous Sensor Network) technology based electronic bracelets to monitor and figure out dangerous situations intelligently, so that we could prevent sexual offences against children beforehand, and while a crime is happening, we could judge the situation of the crime intelligently and take swift action to minimize the suffer. And by checking students' attendance and position, guardians could know where their children are in real time and could protect the children from not only sexual offences but also violent crimes against children like kidnapping. The overall system is like follows : RFID Tag for children monitors the approach of offenders. While an offender's RFID tag is approaching, it will transmit the situation and position as the first warning message to the control center and the guardians. When the offender is going far away, it turns to monitoring mode, and if the tag of the child or the offender is taken off or the child and offender stay at one position for 3~5 minutes or longer, then it will consider this as a dangerous situation, then transmit the emergency situations and position as the second warning message to the control center and the guardians, and ask for the dispatch of police to prevent the crime at the initial stage. The RFID module of criminals' electronic bracelets is RFID TAG, and the RFID module for the children is RFID receiver(reader), so wherever the offenders are, if an offender is at a place within 20m from a child, RFID module for children will transmit the situation every certain periods to the control center by the automatic response of the receiver. As for the positioning module, outdoors GPS or mobile communications module(CELL module)is used and UWB, WI-FI based module is used indoors. The sensor is set under the purpose of making it possible to measure the position coordinates even indoors, so that one could send his real time situation and position to the server of central control center. By using the RFID electronic roll book system of educational institutions and safety system installed at home, children's position and situation can be checked. When the child leaves for school, attendance can be checked through the electronic roll book, and when school is over the information is sent to the guardians. And using RFID access control turnstiles installed at the apartment or entrance of the house, the arrival of the children could be checked and the information is transmitted to the guardians. If the student is absent or didn't arrive at home, the information of the child is sent to the central control center from the electronic roll book or access control turnstiles, and look for the position of the child's electronic bracelet using GPS or mobile communications module, then send the information to the guardians and teacher so that they could report to the police immediately if necessary. Central management and control system is built under the purpose of monitoring dangerous situations and guardians' checking. It saves the warning and pattern data to figure out the areas with dangerous situation, and could help introduce crime prevention systems like CCTV with the highest priority. And by DB establishment personal data could be saved, the frequency of first and second warnings made, the terminal ID of the specific child and offender, warning made position, situation (like approaching, taken off of the electronic bracelet, same position for a certain time) and so on could be recorded, and the data is going to be used for preventing crimes. Even though we've already introduced electronic tagging to prevent recurrence of child sexual offences, but the crimes continuously occur. So I suggest this system to prevent crimes beforehand concerning the children's safety. If we make electronic bracelets easy to use and carry, and set the price reasonably so that many children can use, then lots of criminals could be prevented and we can protect the children easily. By preventing criminals before happening, it is going to be a helpful system for our safe life.

Development of a Stock Trading System Using M & W Wave Patterns and Genetic Algorithms (M&W 파동 패턴과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 주식 매매 시스템 개발)

  • Yang, Hoonseok;Kim, Sunwoong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2019
  • Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea (가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고-)

  • Bang, Sook;Han, Seung-Hyun;Lee, Chung-Ja;Ahn, Moon-Young;Lee, In-Sook;Kim, Eun-Shil;Kim, Chong-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.20 no.1 s.21
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    • pp.165-203
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    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

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