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Forecasting Hourly Demand of City Gas in Korea (국내 도시가스의 시간대별 수요 예측)

  • Han, Jung-Hee;Lee, Geun-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2016
  • This study examined the characteristics of the hourly demand of city gas in Korea and proposed multiple regression models to obtain precise estimates of the hourly demand of city gas. Forecasting the hourly demand of city gas with accuracy is essential in terms of safety and cost. If underestimated, the pipeline pressure needs to be increased sharply to meet the demand, when safety matters. In the opposite case, unnecessary inventory and operation costs are incurred. Data analysis showed that the hourly demand of city gas has a very high autocorrelation and that the 24-hour demand pattern of a day follows the previous 24-hour demand pattern of the same day. That is, there is a weekly cycle pattern. In addition, some conditions that temperature affects the hourly demand level were found. That is, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between the hourly demand and temperature is about 0.853 on average, while the absolute value of the correlation coefficient on a specific day improves to 0.861 at worst and 0.965 at best. Based on this analysis, this paper proposes a multiple regression model incorporating the hourly demand ahead of 24 hours and the hourly demand ahead of 168 hours, and another multiple regression model with temperature as an additional independent variable. To show the performance of the proposed models, computational experiments were carried out using real data of the domestic city gas demand from 2009 to 2013. The test results showed that the first regression model exhibits a forecasting accuracy of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) around 4.5% over the past five years from 2009 to 2013, while the second regression model exhibits 5.13% of MAPE for the same period.

Improvement of Fontan Circulatory Failure after Conversion to Total Cavopulmonary Connection (완전 대정맥-폐동맥 연결수술로 전환 후의 폰탄순환장애 개선)

  • Han Ki Park;Gijong Yi;Suk Won Song;Sak Lee;Bum Koo Cho;Young hwan Park
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.36 no.8
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    • pp.559-565
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    • 2003
  • By improving the flow pattern in Fontan circuit, total cavopulmonary connection (TCPC) could result in a better outcome than atriopulmonary connection Fontan operation. For the patients with impaired hemodynamics after atriopulmonary Fontan connection, conversion to TCPC can be expected to bring hemodynamic and functional improvement. We studied the results of the revision of the previous Fontan connection to TCPC in patients with failed Fontan circulation. Material and method: From October1979 to June 2002, eight patients who had failed Fontan circulation, underwent revision of previous Fontan operation to TCPC at Yonsei University Hospital. Intracardiac anomalies of the patients were tricuspid atresia (n=4) and other functional single ventricles (n=4). Mean age at TCPC conversion was 14.0$\pm$7.0 years (range, 4.6~26.2 years) and median interval between initial Fontan operation and TCPC was 7.5 years (range, 2.4~14.3 years). All patients had various degree of symptoms and signs of right heart failure. NYHA functional class was 111 or IV in six patients. Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (n:f), cyanosis (n=2), intraatrial thrombi (n=2), and protein losing enteropathy (PLE) (n=3) were also combined. The previous Fontan operation was revised to extracardiac conduit placement (n=7) and intraatrial lateral tunnel (n=1). Result: There was no operative death. Major morbidities included deep sternal infection (n=1), prolonged pleural effusion over two weeks (n=1), and temporary junctional lachyarrhythrnia (n=1). Postoperative central venous Pressure was lower than the preoperative value (17.9$\pm$3.5 vs. 14.9$\pm$1.0, p=0.049). Follow-up was complete in all patients and extended to 50,1 months (mean, 30.3$\pm$ 12.8 months). There was no late death. All patients were in NYHA class 1 or 11. Paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia developed in a patient who underwent conversion to intraatrial lateral tunnel procedure, PLE was recurred in two patients among three patients who had had PLE before the convertsion. There was no newly developed PLE. Conclusion: Hemodynamic and functional improvement could be expected for the patients with Fontan circulatory failure after atriopulmonary connection by revision of their previous circulation to TCPC. The conversion could be performed with low risk of morbidity and mortality.

Small Aortic Annulus in Aortic Valve Replacement; Comparison between Aortic Annular Enlargement Group and Patient-prosthesis Mismatch Group (협소한 대동맥판륜 환자에서의 대동맥판막 치환술; 대동맥판륜 확장술군과 환자-인공판막 부조화군의 비교)

  • Kim, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Sam-Sae;Yie, Kil-Soo;Shin, Sung-Ho;Baek, Man-Jong;Na, Chan-Young
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.3 s.272
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    • pp.200-208
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    • 2007
  • Background: The effect of patient-prosthesis mismatch (PPM) on the clinical outcome following aortic valve replacement (AVR) remains controversial. This study compared the surgical outcomes of AVR between patients with a patient-prosthesis mismatch and those having undergone an aortic annular enlargement. Material and Method: Six hundred and twenty seven adult patients, who underwent AVR with stented bioprosthetic or mechanical valves, between January 1996 and February 2006, were evaluated. PPM was defined as an indexed effective orifice area (iEOA) ${\leq}0.85cm^2/m^2$, and Severe if the iEOA${\leq}0.65cm^2/m^2$ PPM was present in 103 (16.4%, PPM group) patients, and severe in 11 (1.8%, SPPM group). During the period of the study, 21 patients underwent an AVR with annular enlargement (AE group). Result: The mean iEOA of the AE group was larger than that of the PPM group ($0.95\;vs.\;0.76cm^2/m^2,\;p=0.00$). The AE group had longer CPB, ACC and operation times than the PPM group, and showed a tendency toward higher operative mortality (14.3% vs. 2.9%, p=0.06). The SPPM group had higher AV pressure gradients (peak/mean) than the AE group (72/45 mmHg vs. 38/25 mmHg, p=0.02/0.06) and suffered more AV related events (AV reoperation or severe aortic stenosis)(45.5% vs. 9.5%, p=0.03). LV masses were not regressed in the patients who experienced an AV related event. Conclusion: During AVR in patients with a small aortic annulus, annular enlargement should be carefully applied taking into account the high risk of operative mortality due to annular enlargement and co-morbidities of patients. Aortic annular enlargement; however, should be considered as an alternative method in patients expected to have a severe PPM after an AVR.

The Clinical and Cost Effectiveness of Medical Nutrition Therapy for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (제2형 당뇨병환자에서 임상영앙치료의 임상적 효과와 비용효과 연구)

  • Cho, Youn-Yun;Lee, Moon-Kyu;Jang, Hak-Chul;Rha, Mi-Yong;Kim, Ji-Young;Park, Young-Mi;Sohn, Cheong-Min
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2008
  • Medical nutrition therapy (MNT) is considered a keystone of medical treatment of chronic diseases. However, only few studies have evaluated medical and economical outcome of MNT. The study was performed on the patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus to evaluate the effect of clinical and cost-effective outcomes of MNT. Subjects from two general hospitals were randomly assigned to two different groups; One receiving basic nutritional education (BE) (n = 35), and the other receiving intensive nutritional education (IE) (n = 32) for a 6-month clinical trial. The group which received BE had a single visit with a dietitian, while the other group which received IE had an initial visit with a dietitian addition to two visits during the first 4 weeks of the study periods. Anthropometric parameters, blood components, and dietary intake were measures at the beginning of study period and after 6 month. Cost-effective analysis included direct labor costs, educational materials and medication cost difference during 6 months. After 6 month, subjects from IE group showed significant reduction of body weight (p <0.05) and systolic blood pressure (p <0.05), whereas BE group did not show any significant changes. Result from biochemical indices showed glycated hemoglobin concentration was significantly reduced by 0.7% (p <0.05) only in the IE group. The ratio of energy intake to prescribed energy intake decreased significantly in both groups (p <0.05). Mean time taken for a dietitian to educate the subject was 67.9 ${\pm}$ 9.3 min/person for BE group, while 96.4 ${\pm}$ 12.2 min/person for IE group. Mean number of educational materials was 1.9 ${\pm}$ 0.7/person for BE group and 2.5 ${\pm}$ 0.7/person for IE group. Change in glycated hemoglobin level along the 6 month period of study can be achieved with an investment of \88,510/% by implementing BE and \53,691/% by implementing IE. Considering the net cost-effect of blood glucose control and HbA Ic, IE which provides MNT by dietitian had a cost efficiency advantage than that of BE. According to this study, MNT provided by dietitian had a significant improvements in medical and clinical outcomes compared to that of BE intervention. Therefore, MNT protocol should be performed by systemic intensive nutrition care by dietitian in clinical setting to achieve good therapeutic results of DM with lower cost.

Flexural Properties according to Change of Polymerization Temperature of Autopolymerized Resin for Orthodontic (치과 교정용 자가중합형 Resin의 중합 온도 변화에 따른 굽힘 특성)

  • Lee, Gyu Sun
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.259-264
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    • 2015
  • For this experiment, specimen was manufactured by injecting polymer and monomer into silicon mold with volume ratio of 2.5:1 based on ISO 20795-2 so that average thickness, width and length of specimen would be maintained as 3.3 mm, 10.0 mm and 65.0 mm, respectively depending on spray on technique. Specimen was divided into 3 groups ($25^{\circ}C$, $40^{\circ}C$, $70^{\circ}C$) depending on polymerization temperature and 10 specimen was manufactured for each group and it was polymerized in water tank of ${\pm}1^{\circ}C$ under the setting condition of polymerization time of 15 minutes and pressure of 3 bar. After keeping specimen in distilled water of $37^{\circ}C$ for over 48 hours before experiment, flexural strength (FS) and elasticity modulus (EM) of specimen being tested by using Intron (3344; Instron; Instron). SPSS ver. 16.0 was used for analysis and post-hoc test of Scheffe was performed after using one-way ANOVA. When comparing mean value of FS of resin for orthodontics, it was represented in the range of 71.500 MPa for $25^{\circ}C$ group, 74.920 MPa for $40^{\circ}C$ group and 76.880 MPa for $70^{\circ}C$ group and difference was shown in the order of $25^{\circ}C$ group <$40^{\circ}C$ group <$70^{\circ}C$ group but such difference was not significant statistically (p=0.052). Result of EM mean value of resin for orthodontics was more polymerization temperature was high, the more was significant difference represented in the order of $25^{\circ}C$ group <$40^{\circ}C$ group <$70^{\circ}C$ group (p<0.039).

The Comorbidity of Periodic Limb Movements Disorder in Patients with Sleep-Related Breathing Disorder (수면관련 호흡장애 환자에서의 수면중 주기성 사지운동장애의 동반이환율)

  • Yang, Chang-Kook;Son, Choon-Hee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.1039-1046
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    • 1998
  • Background: Sleep-related breathing disorders(SRBD) and periodic leg movements disorder(PLMD) are both common, and are considered as separate sleep disorders. However, both disorders show high comorbidity. SRBD and PLMD can result in excessive daytime sleepiness and insomnia due to frequent sleep fragmentation. So, it is very important to consider the presence of PLMD, when we are dealing with the diagnosis and management of SRBD. The objectives of this study were to determine the incidence of PLMD in patients with SRBD, and to describe any differences between patients with and without PLMD. Method: The authors reviewed the sleep recordings of 106 patients with a final diagnosis of SRBD(obstructive sleep apnea or upper airway resistance syndrome), who underwent full nocturnal polysomnography, including the monitoring of the anterior tibialis electromyogram. All sleep records were recorded and scored using the standard criteria. The data was analyzed by the student t-test. Result: 106 patients(M=76, F=30) were included in the analysis. Data revealed a mean age of $49.5{\pm}13.6$ years, a respiratory disturbance index(RDI) of $22.3{\pm}25.4$/hour sleep, a lowest oxygen saturation of $84.9{\pm}11.3%$, a maximal esophageal pressure of $-41.0{\pm}19.1cmH_2O$, and PLM index(PLMI) of $13.1{\pm}22.4$movements/hour sleep. Forty four percent(47 of 106 patients) had a PLMI of greater than 5 on this study. The mean age of the patients with PLMD was significantly higher than that of the patients without PLMD(p<0.005). Female patients with SRBD accompanied more PLMD(p<0.05). The apnea index of the patients with PLMD was significantly lower than that of the patients without PLMD(p<0.01). The percentage of stage 1 sleep in the patients with PLMD was significantly lower than that of the patients without PLMD(p<0.05). Conclusion: The prevalence of PLMD in the patients with SRBD was high at 44.3%. The patients with PLMD were older and had more high RDI in comparison to the patients without PLMD, which was consistent with previous findings. The authors recommend that more careful consideration of PLMD is required when diagnosing and treating SRBD.

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Application of Machine Learning Algorithm and Remote-sensed Data to Estimate Forest Gross Primary Production at Multi-sites Level (산림 총일차생산량 예측의 공간적 확장을 위한 인공위성 자료와 기계학습 알고리즘의 활용)

  • Lee, Bora;Kim, Eunsook;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.6_2
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    • pp.1117-1132
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    • 2019
  • Forest covers 30% of the Earth's land area and plays an important role in global carbon flux through its ability to store much greater amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. The Gross Primary Production (GPP) represents the productivity of forest ecosystems according to climate change and its effect on the phenology, health, and carbon cycle. In this study, we estimated the daily GPP for a forest ecosystem using remote-sensed data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and machine learning algorithms Support Vector Machine (SVM). MODIS products were employed to train the SVM model from 75% to 80% data of the total study period and validated using eddy covariance measurement (EC) data at the six flux tower sites. We also compare the GPP derived from EC and MODIS (MYD17). The MODIS products made use of two data sets: one for Processed MODIS that included calculated by combined products (e.g., Vapor Pressure Deficit), another one for Unprocessed MODIS that used MODIS products without any combined calculation. Statistical analyses, including Pearson correlation coefficient (R), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the outcomes of the model. In general, the SVM model trained by the Unprocessed MODIS (R = 0.77 - 0.94, p < 0.001) derived from the multi-sites outperformed those trained at a single-site (R = 0.75 - 0.95, p < 0.001). These results show better performance trained by the data including various events and suggest the possibility of using remote-sensed data without complex processes to estimate GPP such as non-stationary ecological processes.

Changes of Hemodynamic and Central Pulmonary Artery Dimension After Bidirectional Cavopulmonarv Shunt (양방향성 체정맥-폐동맥 단락술후 혈역학 및 중심 폐동맥 크기의 변화)

  • 이정렬;이해원
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.29 no.12
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    • pp.1306-1315
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    • 1996
  • This study reviewed the changes of hemodynamlcs and centrAl pulmonary artery dimension in 54 patients who underwent bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt(BCPS) between February 1992 and December 1995 at Seoul National University Childrell's Hospital. Ag and body weight of patients averaged 36.8 $\pm$ 37.7 months and 8.0$\pm$3.0 kg, respectively Eightynine percent of patients had more than 2 violations of the risk factors for Fontan operation, resulting overall hospital mortality of 16.6%(9154). Serial hemodynamic and anglographic examinations before and mean 16.3 $\pm$ 14.3 months iirter BCPS were compared. The arterial oxygen saturation improved from a preoperative value of 71 9: 10.1 % to 79.H $\pm$ 8. 5% (n:4), p<0.05). The values of arterial oxygen saturation were lower as the age of the patients with BCPS in place was older(n=22, R'=0.341, p=0.004). A mean pulmonary artery pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance reduced from 31 $\pm$17 to 1).5$\pm$3.SmmHg(n=22, p<0.05) and from ).2$\pm$2.1 to 2.3$\pm$2.7 unit (n=7. p>0.05), respectively. Follow-up study showed a significant Increase of absolute values of ipsilateral pulmoanry artery (n: 14, p<0.05), but no change of contralateral pulmonary artreries (n: 14. p=not significant(HSI). However, there w re significant decreases in diameters of both ipsilateral and contralateral pulmonary arteries standardized by patients' body surface areas(16.8% decrease, n: 14, p< 0. 05 for ipsilatreal, 25.1%, n=14, p<0.05 for contralateral). Pulmonary artery indices for cross sectional areas of both pulmonary arterises decreased 9.3 $\pm$ 13.8% with showing a trend of more decrease as the follow-up duration was longer, We conclude that the bidirectional cavopulmonary shunt provide an excellent.

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Significance of Early Visual Responses to Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor in Age-related Macular Degeneration (신생혈관 연령관련황반변성에서 항혈관내피세포성장인자 주입술 시행 후 시력 반응의 의의)

  • Song, Hee Jun;Yang, Ji Ho;Kim, Do Gyun
    • Journal of The Korean Ophthalmological Society
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    • v.59 no.11
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    • pp.1030-1038
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: To evaluate whether early visual acuity response at 4 weeks after the first intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) injection or 4 weeks after the third injection in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is associated with 12-month follow-up outcome. Methods: Thirty treatment-naive patients (30 eyes) with nAMD, treated with intravitreal anti-VEGF, were retrospectively included. Initially, all patients were injected at least three times for three consecutive months and followed up with a pro re nata regimen for at least 12 months. The relationship between 4 weeks after the first and third anti-VEGF injections in visual acuity response was explored, including the mean change from baseline in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA). The mean change in BCVA was classified into three groups according to visual improvement: <1, 1-<3, or ${\geq}3$ logMAR line(s) in BCVA. The associations among baseline characteristics (gender, age, duration of symptoms, initial BCVA, central macular thickness, and intraocular pressure) and visual acuity responses 4 weeks after the first and third anti-VEGF injections were also assessed. Results: The proportions of eyes with <1, 1-<3, and ${\geq}3-line(s)$ improvement at 4 weeks after the first injection were 6 eyes (20%), 7 eyes (23.3%), and 17 eyes (56.6%), respectively. The proportions of eyes with <1, 1-<3, and ${\geq}3-line(s)$ improvement at 4 weeks after the third injection were 9 eyes (30%), 9 eyes (30%), and 12 eyes (40%), respectively. A BCVA response ${\geq}3-lines$ improvement at 4 weeks after the third injection showed significant associations with ${\geq}3-line(s)$ improvement and BCVA response at 12 months in multiple logistic and linear regression analyses (p = 0.04). Conclusions: In this study, BCVA response ${\geq}3-lines$ improvement at 4 weeks after the third injection showed a significant association with ${\geq}3-line(s)$ improvement and BCVA response at 12 months.

Effects of vocal aerobic treatment on voice improvement in patients with voice disorders (성대에어로빅치료법이 음성장애환자의 음성개선에 미치는 효과)

  • Park, Jun-Hee;Yoo, Jae-Yeon;Lee, Ha-Na
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2019
  • This study aimed to investigate the effects of vocal aerobic treatment (VAT) on the improvement of voice in patients with voice disorders. Twenty patients (13 males, 7 females) were diagnosed with voice disorders on the basis of videostroboscopy and voice evaluations. Acoustic evaluation was performed with the Multidimensional voice program (MDVP) and Voice Range Profile (VRP) of Computerized Speech Lab (CSL), and aerodynamic evaluation with PAS (Phonatory Aerodynamic System). The changes in F0, Jitter, Shimmer, and NHR before and after treatment were measured by MDVP. F0 range and Energy range were measured with VRP before and after treatment, and the changes in Expiratory Volume (FVC), Phonation Time (PHOT), Mean Expiratory Airflow (MEAF), Mean Peak Air Pressure (MPAP), and Aerodynamic Efficiency (AEFF) with PAS. Videostroboscopy was performed to evaluate the regularity, symmetry, mucosal wave, and amplitude changes of both vocal cords before and after treatment. Voice therapy was performed once a week for each patient using the VAT program in a holistic voice therapy approach. The average number of treatments per patient was 6.5. In the MDVP, Jitter, Shimmer, and NHR showed statistically significant decreases (p < .001, p < .01, p < .05). VRP results showed that Hz and semitones in the frequency range improved significantly after treatment (p < .01, p < .05), as did PAS, FVC, and PHOT (p < .01, p < .001). The results for videostroboscopy, functional voice disorder, laryngopharyngeal reflux, and benign vocal fold lesions were normal. Thus, the VAT program was found to be effective in improving the acoustic and aerodynamic aspects of the voice of patients with voice disorders. In future studies, the effect of VAT on the same group of voice disorders should be studied. It is also necessary to investigate subjective voice improvement and objective voice improvement. Furthermore, it is necessary to examine the effects of VAT in professional voice users.