• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.298-307
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• 2018

Background: Subalpine ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. In South Korea, the prediction of the species richness of subalpine plant species under future climate change is not well studied. Thus, this study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change on species richness of subalpine plant species (14 species) in the 17 mountain national parks (MNPs) of South Korea under climate change scenarios' representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Migclim for the years 2050 and 2070. Results: Altogether, 723 species occurrence points of 14 species and six selected variables were used in modeling. The models developed for all species showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.89 and TSS > 0.70). The results predicted a significant loss of species richness in all MNPs. Under RCP 4.5, the range of reduction was predicted to be 15.38-94.02% by 2050 and 21.42-96.64% by 2070. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, it will decline 15.38-97.9% by 2050 and 23.07-100% by 2070. The reduction was relatively high in the MNPs located in the central regions (Songnisan and Gyeryongsan), eastern region (Juwangsan), and southern regions (Mudeungsan, Wolchulsan, Hallasan, and Jirisan) compared to the northern and northeastern regions (Odaesan, Seoraksan, Chiaksan, and Taebaeksan). Conclusions: This result indicates that the MNPs at low altitudes and latitudes have a large effect on the climate change in subalpine plant species. This study suggested that subalpine species are highly threatened due to climate change and that immediate actions are required to conserve subalpine species and to minimize the effect of climate change.

• Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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• 2019.04a
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• pp.27-27
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• 2019

본 연구는 한국 특산식물이고, IUCN Red List의 EN(위기종) 등급에 속하는 개느삼(Echinosophora koreensis)을 대상으로 자생지 분포, 식생구조 등의 생태적 특성과 현지 내외 보전 방안을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다. 개느삼의 자생지 분포 조사 결과 강원도 양구군 13곳, 인제군 3곳, 춘천시 2곳, 홍천군 1곳 총 19곳에 분포하는 것을 확인하였다. 개느삼 자생지의 해발고도는 169-711m에 분포하는 것으로 나타났고, 평균 해발고도는 375m 인 것으로 조사되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 면적 조사 결과, $8,000-734,000m^2$인 것으로 분석되었고, 평균 $202,789m^2$으로 조사되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 입지환경 분석을 수행한 결과, 자생지 내 우점종은 교목층에서 소나무가 대부분 우점하였고, 아교목층에서는 신갈나무가 우점하는 것으로 분석되었다. 관목층은 생강나무가 우점하였고, 초본층은 모든 조사구에서 개느삼이 우점하는 것으로 분석되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 식생군집분석 결과, 신갈나무, 소나무, 굴참나무 우점 군집 3개 군집으로 분류되었다. 개느삼 자생지를 대상으로 관속식물상을 조사한 결과, 총 82과 204속 289종 4아종 43변종 5품종 341분류군으로 확인되었다. 개느삼의 출현지점을 이용하여 자생지 분포역 예측 model 중 하나인 MaxEnt 분석을 통하여 잠재 분포지 분석을 수행한 결과, AUC값은 0.9762로 분석되었다. 분포예측 자생지는 강원도 양구군, 인제군, 춘천시, 화천군 지역에 집중되어 분포하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Species Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.246-254
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• 2021

Subalpine and alpine ecosystems are especially vulnerable to temperature increases. Betula ermanii Cham. (Betulaceae) is a dominant broad-leaved tree species in the subalpine zone and is designated as a 'Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species' in South Korea. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of B. ermanii under current and future climate conditions in South Korea using the MaxEnt model. The species distribution models showed an excellent fit (AUC=0.99). Among the climatic variables, the most critical factors shaping B. ermanii distribution were identified as the maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5; 64.8%) and annual mean temperature (Bio1; 20.3%). Current potential habitats were predicted in the Baekdudaegan mountain range and Mt. Hallasan, and the area of suitable habitat was 1531.52 km², covering 1.57% of the Korean Peninsula. With global warming, future climate scenarios have predicted a decrease in the suitable habitats for B. ermanii. Under RCP8.5-2070s, in particular, habitat with high potential was predicted only in several small areas in Gangwon-do, and the total area suitable for the species decreased by up to 97.3% compared to the current range. We conclude that the dominant factor affecting the distribution of B. ermanii is temperature and that future temperature rises will increase the vulnerability of this species.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.503-514
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• 2020

Climate change leads to changes in phenological response and movement of plant habitats. Korea's evergreen broad-leaved forest has widened its distribution area compared for the past 20 years, and the range of its native habitats is moving northward. We analyzed climate indices such as the warmth index, the cold index, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, and the annual average temperature, which are closely related to vegetation distribution, to predict the change in the native habitat of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees. We also analyzed the change and spatial distribution to identify the habitat climate characteristics of 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees distributed in the warm temperate zone in Korea. Moreover, we predicted the natural habitat change in the 21st century according to the climate change scenario (RCP 4.5/8.5), applying the MaxEnt species distribution model. The monthly average climate index of the 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was 116.9±10.8℃ for the temperate index, the cold index 3.9±3.8℃, 1495.7±455.4mm for the annual precipitation, 11.7±3.5 for the humidity index, 14.4±1.1℃ for the annual average temperature, and 1.0±2.1℃ for the lowest temperature of winter. Based on the climate change scenario RCP 4.5, the distribution of the Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was analyzed to expand to islands of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, adjacent areas of the west and south coasts, and Goseong, Gangwon-do on the east coast. In the case of the distribution based on the climate change scenario RCP 8.5, it was analyzed that the distribution would expand to all of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, and most regions except for some parts of Jeollabuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and the capital region. For the conservation of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees to prepare for climate change, it is necessary to establish standards for conservation plans such as in-situ and ex-situ conservation and analyze various physical and chemical characteristics of native habitats. Moreover, it is necessary to preemptively detect changes such as distribution, migration, and decline of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees following climate change based on phenological response data based on climate indicators and establish conservation management plans.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.24-36
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• 2021

Countries around the world, including the Republic of Korea, are participating in efforts to preserve biodiversity. Concerning species, in particular, studies that aim to find potential habitats and establish conservation plans by conducting habitat suitability analysis for specific species are actively ongoing. However, few studies on mid- to long-term changes in suitable habitat areas are based on accumulated information. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the time-series changes in the habitat suitable area and examine the otters' changing pattern (Lutra lutra) designated as Level 1 endangered wildlife in Gangwon-do. The time-series change analysis used the data on otter species' presence points from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th national natural environment surveys conducted for about 20 years. Moreover, it utilized the land cover map consistent with the survey period to create environmental variables to reflect each survey period's habitat environment. The suitable habitat area analysis used the MaxEnt model that can run based only on the species presence information, and it has been proven to be reliable by previous studies. The study derived the habitat suitability map for otters in each survey period, and it showed a tendency that habitats were distributed around rivers. Comparing the response curves of the environmental variables derived from the modeling identified the characteristics of the habitat favored by otters. The examination of habitats' change by survey period showed that the habitats based on the 2nd National Natural Environment Survey had the widest distribution. The habitats of the 3rd and 4th surveys showed a tendency of decrease in area. Moreover, the study aggregated the analysis results of the three survey periods and analyzed and categorized the habitat's changing pattern. The type of change proposed different conservation plans, such as field surveys, monitoring, protected area establishment, and restoration plan. This study is significant because it produced a comprehensive analysis map that showed the time-series changes of the location and area of the otter habitat and proposed a conservation plan that is necessary according to the type of habitat change by region. We believe that the method proposed in this study and its results can be used as reference data for establishing a habitat conservation and management plan in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.79-88
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• 2015

Preparations need to be made for Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis) in anticipation of climate change because Korean pine is an endemic species of South Korea and the source of timber and pine nut. Therefore, climate change adaptation policy has been established to conduct an impact assessment on the distribution of Korean pine. Our objective was to predict the distribution of Korean pine while taking into account uncertainty and afforestation conditions. We used the 5th forest types map, a forest site map and BIOCLIM variables. The climate scenarios are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for uncertainty and the climate models are 5 regional climate models (HadGEM3RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, WRF). The base period for this study is 1971 to 2000. The target periods are the mid-21st century (2021-2050) and the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). This study used the MaxEnt model, and 50% of the presences were randomly set as training data. The remaining 50% were used as test data, and 10 cross-validated replicates were run. The selected variables were the annual mean temperature (Bio1), the precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). The test data's ROC curve of Korean pine was 0.689. The distribution of Korean pine in the mid-21st century decreased from 11.9% to 37.8% on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied from 32.1% to 45.4% on both RCPs. The areas at the end of the 21st century declined by 53.9% on RCP 4.5 and by 86.0% on RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied 23.8% on RCP 4.5 and 7.2% on RCP 8.5. Private forests showed more of a decrease than national forests for all subsequent periods. Our results may contribute to the establishment of climate change adaptation policies for considering various adaptation options.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.55-69
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• 2018

As disaster risk and climate change volatility increase, there are more efforts to adapt to disasters such as forest fires, floods, and landslides. Most of the research, however, is about influence of human activities on disaster and there is few research on disaster adaptation for species. Previous studies focusing on biodiversity in selecting conservation areas have not addressed threats of disaster in the habitats for species. The natural disasters sometimes play role of drivers of ecological successions in the long run, but they might cause serious problems for the conservation of vulnerable species which are endangered. The purpose of this study is to determine whether soil loss (SL) is effective in selecting habitat management areas for amphibians and reptiles. RUSLE model was used to calculate soil loss (SL) and the distribution of each species (SD) was computed with MaxEnt model to find out the biodiversity index. In order to select the habitat management area, we estimated the different results depending if value of soil loss was applied or not by using MARXAN, a conservation priority selection tool. With using MARXAN, conservation goals can be achieved according to the scenario objectives, and the study has been made to meet the minimum habitat area. Finally, the results are expressed in two; 1) the result of soil loss and biodiversity with MATRIX method and 2) the result of regional difference calculated with MARXAN conservation prioritization considering soil loss. The first result indicates that the area with high soil loss and low species diversity have lower conservation values and thus can be managed as natural disturbances. In the area where soil loss is high and species diversity is also high, it becomes where a disaster mitigation action should be taken for the species. According to the conservation priorities of the second result, higher effectiveness of conservation was obtained with fewer area when it considered SL in addition to SD, compared to when considered only biodiversity. When the SL was not taken into consideration, forest area with high distribution of species were important, but when SL considered, the agricultural area or downstream of the river were represented to be a major part of habitats. If more species data or disaster parameters other than soil loss are added as variables later, it could contribute as a reference material for decision-making to achieve various purposes.