• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.127-135
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• 2018

Climate change can affect variables related to the life cycle of insects, including growth, development, survival, reproduction and distribution. As it encourages alien insects to rapidly spread and settle, climate change is regarded as one of the direct causes of decreased biodiversity because it disturbed ecosystems and reduces the population of native species. Hypera postica caused a great deal of damage in the southern provinces of Korea after it was first identified on Jeju lsland in the 1990s. In recent years, the number of individuals moving to estivation sites has concerned scientists due to the crop damage and national proliferation. In this study, we examine how climate change could affect inhabitation of H. postica. The MaxEnt model was applied to estimate potential distributions of H. postica using future climate change scenarios, namely, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As variables of the model, this study used six bio-climates (bio3, bio6, bio10, bio12, bio14, and bio16) in consideration of the ecological characteristics of 66 areas where inhabitation of H. postica was confirmed from 2015 to 2017, and in consideration of the interrelation between prediction variables. The fitness of the model was measured at a considered potentially useful level of 0.765 on average, and the warmest quarter has a high contribution rate of 60-70%. Prediction models (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) results for the year 2050 and 2070 indicated that H. postica habitats are projected to expand across the Korean peninsula due to increasing temperatures.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.229-237
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• 2015

This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests' distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests' growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees' geographical distribution change is more affected by climate's extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest's age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.203-214
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to estimate the concentrated distribution area of nutria (Myocastor coypus) and potential suitable habitat and to provide useful data for the effective management direction setting. Based on the nationwide distribution data of nutria, the cross-validation value was applied to analyze the distribution density. As a result, the concentrated distribution areas thatrequired preferential elimination is found in 14 administrative areas including Busan Metropolitan City, Daegu Metropolitan City, 11 cities and counties in Gyeongsangnam-do and 1 county in Gyeongsangbuk-do. In the potential suitable habitat estimation using a MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model, the possibility of emergency was found in the Nakdong River middle and lower stream area and the Seomjin riverlower stream area and Gahwacheon River area. As for the contribution by variables of a model, it showed DEM, precipitation of driest month, min temperature of coldest month and distance from river had contribution from the highest order. In terms of the relation with the probability of appearance, the probability of emergence was higher than the threshold value in areas with less than 34m of altitude, with $-5.7^{\circ}C{\sim}-0.6^{\circ}C$ of min temperature of the coldest month, with 15-30mm of precipitation of the driest month and with less than 1,373m away from the river. Variables that Altitude, existence of water and wintertemperature affected settlement and expansion of nutria, considering the research results and the physiological and ecological characteristics of nutria. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect them as important variables in the future habitable area detection and expansion estimation modeling. It must be essential to distinguish the concentrated distribution area and the management area of invasive alien species such as nutria and to establish and apply a suitable management strategy to the management site for the permanent control. The results in this study can be used as useful data for a strategic management such as rapid management on the preferential management area and preemptive and preventive management on the possible spreading area.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.160-166
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• 2014

This study was aimed at looking into the distribution status and age structure of Abies holophylla population in Sudo-Am temple forest. It was found that a total of 302 individuals of Abies holophylla existed which were more than 2m in height within the study area. Furthermore the population size is one of the largest in the southern region of Korea. The CBH of Abies holophylla ranged from 1.5 cm to 500.8 cm. Age structure of Abies holophylla looks like a gourd-shaped bottle. This means that they have an unstable structure status and do not survive very long. This status results from a variety of factors including, vegetation succession, anthropogenic activities, and global warming. The environmental characteristics of Abies holophylla population was $931{\pm}64.5m$ in mean altitude, $19.2{\pm}8.7^{\circ}$ in mean slope in the northeastern and southeastern area of the slope direction, and $1,324,323{\pm}174,459wh\;m^{-2}$ in average of direct normal irradiation. Among the site environmental factors, the significant ones which influence the potential habitat for Abies holophylla distribution were chosen using the MaxEnt model. According to the results of this study, altitude and slope were found as the important factors. The average value of environmental conditions by ROC analysis were altitude 903.2 m, slope $20.04^{\circ}$, irradiation $1,352.248wh\;m^{-2}$, and the southeastern aspect.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.102-113
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• 2016

This study analyzes the geographic information system (GIS) and machine learning models to understand the relationship between the appearance of hibernation sites and habitats in order to systematically manage the habitat of Asiatic Black Bear(Ursus thibetanus ussuricus) inhabiting Jirisan National Park, South Korea. The most important environmental factors influencing the hibernation sites was found to be the inclination(41.4%), followed by altitude(20.4%), distance from the trail(10.9%), and age group(7.7%) in the order of their contribution. A comparison between the hibernation habitat and the normal habitat of Asiatic Black Bear indicated that the average altitude of the hibernation sites was 63m, whereas the average altitude of the normal habitat was approximately 400m. The average inclination was found to be $7^{\circ}$, and a preference for the steeper inclination of $12-43^{\circ}$ was also observed. The average distance of the hibernation site from the road was approximately 300m; the range of separation distance was found to be 1,300-2,400m. This was thought to be the result of a safer selection of winter hibernation site by preventing human contact and outside invasion. This study analyzes the habitat environmental factors for the selection of hibernation sites that prevent severe cold and other threats during the hibernation period in order to provide fundamental data for hibernation ecology and habitat management of Asiatic Black Bear.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.33-40
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• 2020

Background: Understanding the geographical distribution of a species is a key component of studying its ecology, evolution, and conservation. Although Schlegel's Japanese gecko (Gekko japonicus) is widely distributed in Northeast Asia, its distribution has not been studied in detail. We predicted the present and future distribution of G. japonicus across China, Japan, and Korea based on 19 climatic and 5 environmental variables using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Results: Present time major suitable habitats for G. japonicus, having greater than 0.55 probability of presence (threshold based on the average predicted probability of the presence records), are located at coastal and inland cities of China; western, southern, and northern coasts of Kyushu and Honshu in Japan; and southern coastal cities of Korea. Japan contained 69.3% of the suitable habitats, followed by China (27.1%) and Korea (4.2%). Temperature seasonality (66.5% of permutation importance) was the most important predictor of the distribution. Future distributions according to two climate change scenarios predicted that by 2070, and overall suitable habitats would decrease compared to the present habitats by 18.4% (scenario RCP 4.5) and 10.4% (scenario RCP 8.5). In contrast to these overall trends, range expansions are expected in inland areas of China and southern parts of Korea. Conclusions: Suitable habitats predicted for G. japonicus are currently located in coastal cities of Japan, China, and Korea, as well as in isolated patches of inland China. Due to climate change, suitable habitats are expected to shrink along coastlines, particularly at the coastal-edge of climate change zones. Overall, our results provide essential distribution range information for future ecological studies of G. japonicus across its distribution range.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.35-48
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• 2021

In Suwon, the overall hygiene of the city is threatened by the emergence of the rook(Corvus fugilegus) in the city. Rooks began to appear in November of 2016 and has continued to appear from November to March every year. In order to eradicate or to prepare an alternative habitat for rooks, this study aimed to identify the preferred habitat and specific environmental variables. Therefore, in this work, we aim to understand the predicted distribution of rooks in Suwon City with citizen science and through MaxENT, the most widely utilized habitat modeling using citizen science to analyze the preferred habitat of harmful tides appearing in urban areas. In this study, seven environmental variables were chosen: biotope group complex, building floor, vegetation, euclidean distance from farmland, euclidean distance from streetlamp, and euclidean distance from pole and DEM. Among the estimated models, after the time period of sunrise (08:00~18:00) the contribution percentage were as following: euclidean distance from arable land(39.2%), DEM(25.5%), euclidean distance from streetlamp(22.3%), euclidean distance from pole(7.1%), biotope group complex(4.9%), building floor(1%), vegetation(0%). In the time period after sunset(18:00~08:00) the contribution percentage were as following: biotope group complex(437.4%), euclidean distance from pole(26.8%), DEM(13.4%), euclidean distance from streetlamp(11.8%), euclidean distance from farmland(7.9%), building floor(1.4%), vegetation(1.3%).

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.802-811
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• 2023

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.58 no.2
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• pp.197-208
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• 2020

This study was carried out to analyze spatial and temporal incidence characteristics of scrub typhus and predict the future incidence of scrub typhus since the incidences of scrub typhus have been rapidly increased among vector-borne diseases. A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) ecological model was implemented to predict spatial distribution and incidence rate of scrub typhus using spatial data sets on environmental and social variables. Additionally, relationships between the incidence of scrub typhus and critical spatial data were analyzed. Elevation and temperature were analyzed as dominant spatial factors which influenced the growth environment of Leptotrombidium scutellare (L. scutellare) which is the primary vector of scrub typhus. A temporal number of diseases by scrub typhus was predicted by a deep neural network (DNN). The model considered the time-lagged effect of scrub typhus. The DNN-based prediction model showed that temperature, precipitation, and humidity in summer had significant influence factors on the activity of L. scutellare and the number of diseases at fall. Moreover, the DNN-based prediction model had superior performance compared to a conventional statistical prediction model. Finally, the spatial and temporal models were used under climate change scenario. The future characteristics of scrub typhus showed that the maximum incidence rate would increase by 8%, areas of the high potential of incidence rate would increase by 9%, and disease occurrence duration would expand by 2 months. The results would contribute to the disease management and prediction for the health of residents in terms of public health.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.207-213
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• 2015

It is estimated that there is a total of approximately 100,000 species in Korea. However, the number is currently about 30,000 and only 16,027 species are listed in the 'Species Korea' (as of December, 2014). Of the listed species, 51 species are designated as the Endangered Species Class I while 195 species are in the Class II, totaling 246 endangered species including 20 mammals. Under the circumstances that development (e.g., roads) is increasingly threatening the persistence of endangered mammals, it is significant to identify and preserve suitable habitats for them. In this context, evaluating the values of the suitable habitat environment would serve as essential information for development decision making. This study estimated the values of endangered mammals' forest habitats through spatialization of habitat services. In doing so, a species distribution model, Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) was utilized for a group of endangered mammals including, mountain goat, wildcat, marten cat, and flying squirrel. To calculate the values per unit area, a benefit transfer method was used based on the point-estimate technique with the best available values estimated previously. The range of discount rate of 3.0 to 5.5 percent was applied taking the notion of social discount rate into account. As a result, the province with the highest values for endangered mammal habitats appeared to be Gangwon, followed by Gyeongbuk and Gyeongnam. The monetary values of the endangered mammal habitats were estimated to be 330 billion to 421 billion won per year.