• 한국농공학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.4232-4241
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• 1976

This study was carried out to clarify the stochastic characteristics of monthly rainfalls and to select a proper model for generating the sequential monthly rainfall amounts. The results abtained are as follows: 1. Log-Normal distribution function is the best fit theoretical distribution function to the empirical distribution of monthly rainfall amounts. 2. Seasonal and random components are found to exist in the time series of monthly rainfall amounts and non-stationarity is shown from the correlograms. 3. The Monte Carlo model shows a tendency to underestimate the mean values and standard deviations of monthly rainfall amounts. 4. The 1st order Markov model reproduces means, standard deviations, and coefficient of skewness with an error of ten percent or less. 5. A correlogram derived from the data generated by 1st order Markov model shows the charaterstics of historical data exactly. 6. It is concluded that the 1st order Markov model is superior to the Monte Carlo model in their reproducing ability of stochastic properties of monthly rainfall amounts.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.86-95
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• 2016

We propose a new approach to the stochastic version of Lanchester model. Commonly used approach to stochastic Lanchester model is through the Markov-chain method. The Markov-chain approach, however, is not appropriate to high dimensional heterogeneous force case because of large computational cost. In this paper, we propose an approximation method of stochastic Lanchester model. By matching the first and the second moments, the distribution of each unit strength can be approximated with multivariate normal distribution. We evaluate an approximation of discrete Markov-chain model by measuring Kullback-Leibler divergence. We confirmed high accuracy of approximation method, and also the accuracy and low computational cost are maintained under high dimensional heterogeneous force case.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.441-450
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• 2010

In this paper we consider the problem of forecasting binomial time series, modelled by the binomial autoregressive model. This paper considers proposed by McKenzie (1985) and is extended to a higher order by $Wei{\ss}$(2009). Since the binomial autoregressive model is a Markov chain, we can apply the earlier work of Bu and McCabe (2008) for integer valued autoregressive(INAR) model to the binomial autoregressive model. We will discuss how to compute the h-step-ahead forecast of the conditional probabilities of $X_{T+h}$ when T periods are used in fitting. Then we obtain the maximum likelihood estimator of binomial autoregressive model and use it to derive the maximum likelihood estimator of the h-step-ahead forecast of the conditional probabilities of $X_{T+h}$. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to a data set previously analyzed by $Wei{\ss}$(2009).

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제10권9호
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• pp.4568-4584
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• 2016

Steganography based on text generation has become a hot research topic in recent years. However, current text-generation methods which generate texts of normal style have either semantic or syntactic flaws. Note that texts of special genre, such as poem, have much simpler language model, less grammar rules, and lower demand for naturalness. Motivated by this observation, in this paper, we propose a text steganography that utilizes Markov chain model to generate Ci-poetry, a classic Chinese poem style. Since all Ci poems have fixed tone patterns, the generation process is to select proper words based on a chosen tone pattern. Markov chain model can obtain a state transfer matrix which simulates the language model of Ci-poetry by learning from a given corpus. To begin with an initial word, we can hide secret message when we use the state transfer matrix to choose a next word, and iterating until the end of the whole Ci poem. Extensive experiments are conducted and both machine and human evaluation results show that our method can generate Ci-poetry with higher naturalness than former researches and achieve competitive embedding rate.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제81권1호
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• pp.103-115
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• 2022

The prediction error variances for frequencies are usually considered as unknown in the Bayesian system identification process. However, the error variances for mode shapes are taken as known to reduce the dimension of an identification problem. The present study attempts to explore the effectiveness of Bayesian approach of model parameters updating using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique considering the prediction error variances for both the frequencies and mode shapes. To remove the ergodicity of Markov Chain, the posterior distribution is obtained by Gaussian Random walk over the proposal distribution. The prior distributions of prediction error variances of modal evidences are implemented through inverse gamma distribution to assess the effectiveness of estimation of posterior values of model parameters. The issue of incomplete data that makes the problem ill-conditioned and the associated singularity problem is prudently dealt in by adopting a regularization technique. The proposed approach is demonstrated numerically by considering an eight-storey frame model with both complete and incomplete modal data sets. Further, to study the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a comparative study with regard to accuracy and computational efficacy of the proposed approach is made with the Sequential Monte Carlo approach of model parameter updating.

• 한국위성정보통신학회논문지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.12-18
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• 2011

고주파수 대역을 사용하는 위성통신 시스템의 링크 성능 저하의 가장 큰 요인 중의 하나가 강우 감쇠라고 할 수 있으며, 이러한 강우 감쇠를 보상하기 위한 가장 효율적인 방법으로써, 적응형 전송방식을 사용하고 있다. 강우 감쇠에 대처하기 위한 적응형 전송 방식을 개발하고 설계하는데 있어서 중요한 요소 중의 하나가 실제 발생하는 강우 감쇠에 대한 동적 시뮬레이션 모델이다. 본 논문에서는 초 단위 강우 감쇠 실측 데이터에 대한 통계치를 바탕으로 Markov 프로세스 모델을 이용하여 모델링하는 절차를 기술한다. 먼저 실측된 데이터의 통계적 특성을 추출하여 4가지 상태를 가지는 Markov 프로세스를 정의하고, 이를 이용하여 모델링된 데이터와 실측 데이터를 비교 분석한 결과를 제시한다.

• 대한전자공학회논문지SP
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.40-48
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• 2007

이 논문은 다중 스케일 베이지안 관점에서 다층 퍼셉트론과 마코프 랜덤 필드를 사용한 새로운 결 분할 방법을 제안한다. 다층 퍼셉트론의 출력은 사후 확률을 모델링하므로 본 논문에서는 다중 스케일 웨이블릿 계수들을 다층 퍼셉트론의 입력으로 사용한다. 다층 퍼셉트론으로부터 구한 사후 확률과 MAP (maximum a posterior) 분류를 이용하여 각 스케일에서 결 분류를 수행한다. 또한 가장 섬세한 스케일에서 더 개선된 분할 결과를 얻기 위하여 모든 스케일에서 MAP 분류 결과들을 거친 스케일에서 섬세한 스케일까지 차례로 융합한다. 이런 과정은 한 스케일에서의 분류 정보와 그 인접한 보다 거친 스케일에서 얻어지는 문맥과 관련한 연역적 정보를 이용하여 MAP 분류를 행함으로써 이루어진다. 이 융합 과정에서, MRF (Markov random fields) 사전 모델이 평탄화 제한자로서 동작하고, 깁스 샘플러 (Gibbs sampler)는 MAP 분류기로서 동작한다. 제안한 분할 방법은 HMT (Hidden Markov Trees) 모델과 HMTseg 알고리즘을 이용한 결 분할 방법보다 더 좋은 성능을 보인다.

• 전기의세계
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.389-392
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• 1980

For Markov graphic source, it is well known that the conditional runlength coding for the runs of correct prediction is optimum for data compression. However, because of the simplicity in counting and the stronger concentration in distrubution, the incremental run is possibly a better parameter for coding than the run itself for some cases. It is shown that the incremental-runlength is also geometrically distributed as the runlength itself. The distribution is explicitly described with the basic parameters defined for a Markov model.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.441-447
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• 2014

Background: Multi-state models are appropriate for cancer studies such as gastrectomy which have high mortality statistics. These models can be used to better describe the natural disease process. But reaching that goal requires making assumptions like Markov and homogeneity with time. The present study aims to investigate these hypotheses. Materials and Methods: Data from 330 patients with gastric cancer undergoing surgery at Iran Cancer Institute from 1995 to 1999 were analyzed. To assess Markov assumption and time homogeneity in modeling transition rates among states of multi-state model, Cox-Snell residuals, Akaikie information criteria and Schoenfeld residuals were used, respectively. Results: The assessment of Markov assumption based on Cox-Snell residuals and Akaikie information criterion showed that Markov assumption was not held just for transition rate of relapse (state 1 ${\rightarrow}$ state 2) and for other transition rates - death hazard without relapse (state 1 ${\rightarrow}$ state 3) and death hazard with relapse (state 2 ${\rightarrow}$ state 3) - this assumption could also be made. Moreover, the assessment of time homogeneity assumption based on Schoenfeld residuals revealed that this assumption - regarding the general test and each of the variables in the model- was held just for relapse (state 1 ${\rightarrow}$ state 2) and death hazard with a relapse (state 2 ${\rightarrow}$ state 3). Conclusions: Most researchers take account of assumptions such as Markov and time homogeneity in modeling transition rates. These assumptions can make the multi-state model simpler but if these assumptions are not made, they will lead to incorrect inferences and improper fitting.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.1852-1860
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• 2000

Distinct from the Markov random field or pseudo 2D HMM models for image analysis, this paper proposes a new model of 2D hidden Markov mesh chain(HMMM) model which subsumes the definitions of and the assumptions underlying the conventional HMM. The proposed model is a new theoretical realization of 2D HMM with the causality of top-down and left-right progression and the complete lattice constraint. These two conditions enable an efficient mesh decoding for model estimation and a recursive maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters. Those algorithms are developed in theoretical perspective and, in particular, the training algorithm, it is proved, attains the optimal set of parameters.