• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.93-101
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• 2015

In modern society, various crimes is occurred. It is necessary to predict the criminal in order to prevent crimes, various studies on the prediction of crime is in progress. Crime-related data, is announced to the statistical processing of once a year from the Public Prosecutor's Office. However, relative to the current point in time, data that has been statistical processing is a data of about two years ago. It does not fit to the data of the crime currently being generated. In This paper, crime prediction data was apply with Naver trend data. By using the Web traffic Naver trend, it is possible to obtain the data of interest level for crime currently being generated. It was constructed a modeling that can predict the crime by using traffic data of the Naver web search. There have been applied to Markov chains prediction theory. Among various crimes, murder, arson, rape, predictive modeling was applied to target. And the result of predictive modeling value was analyzed. As a result, it got the same results within 20%, based on the value of crime that actually occurred. In the future, it plan to advance research for the predictive modeling of crime that takes into the characteristics of the season.

• Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.76-84
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• 2022

Purpose: We compared cost-effectiveness parameters between inpatient and home-based hospice-palliative care services for terminal cancer patients in Korea. Methods: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of hospice-palliative care in an inpatient unit (inpatient-start group) and at home (home-start group). The model adopted a healthcare system perspective, with a 9-week horizon and a 1-week cycle length. The transition probabilities were calculated based on the reports from the Korean National Cancer Center in 2017 and Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service in 2020. Quality of life (QOL) was converted to the quality-adjusted life week (QALW). Modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis were performed with TreeAge software. The weekly medical cost was estimated to be 2,481,479 Korean won (KRW) for inpatient hospice-palliative care and 225,688 KRW for home-based hospice-palliative care. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different scenarios and assumptions on the model results. Results: Compared with the inpatient-start group, the incremental cost of the home-start group was 697,657 KRW, and the incremental effectiveness based on QOL was 0.88 QALW. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the home-start group was 796,476 KRW/QALW. Based on one-way sensitivity analyses, the ICER was predicted to increase to 1,626,988 KRW/QALW if the weekly cost of home-based hospice doubled, but it was estimated to decrease to -2,898,361 KRW/QALW if death rates at home doubled. Conclusion: Home-based hospice-palliative care may be more cost-effective than inpatient hospice-palliative care. Home-based hospice appears to be affordable even if the associated medical expenditures double.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.189-196
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• 2010

It is never an easy task to physically randomize the sequence of cards. For instance, US 1970 draft lottery resulted in a social turmoil since the outcome sequence of 366 birthday numbers showed a significant relationship with the input order (Wikipedia, "Draft Lottery 1969", Retrieved 2009/05/01). We are motivated by Laplace's 1825 book titled Philosophical Essay on Probabilities that says "Suppose that the numbers 1, 2, ..., 100 are placed, according to their natural ordering, in an urn, and suppose further that, after having shaken the urn, to shuffle the numbers, one draws one number. It is clear that if the shuffling has been properly done, each number will have the same chance of being drawn. But if we fear that there are small differences between them depending on the order in which the numbers were put into the urn, we can decrease these differences considerably by placing these numbers in a second urn in the order in which they are drawn from the first urn, and then shaking the second urn to shuffle the numbers. These differences, already imperceptible in the second urn, would be diminished more and more by using a third urn, a fourth urn, &c." (translated by Andrew 1. Dale, 1995, Springer. pp. 35-36). Laplace foresaw what would happen to us in 150 years later, and, even more, suggested the possible tool to handle the problem. But he did omit the detailed arguments for the solution. Thus we would like to write the supplement in modern terms for Laplace in this research note. We formulate the problem with a lottery box model, to which Markov chain theory can be applied. By applying Markov chains repeatedly, one expects the uniform distribution on k states as stationary distribution. Additionally, we show that the probability of even-number of successes in binomial distribution with trials and the success probability $\theta$ approaches to 0.5, as n increases to infinity. Our theory is illustrated to the cases of truncated geometric distribution and the US 1970 draft lottery.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.5 no.6
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• pp.704-711
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• 2002

Multimedia communication systems are characterized by supporting three different typer of services such as circuit switched services, and packet switched real Lime and non real time services. The wireless channels in a cell ate allocated by calls of these different service classes and the different service requirements have to be met. SRN is an extension of stochastic Petri nets and provides compact Modeling facilities for system analysis. To get the performance index, appropriate reward rates are assigned to its SRN. In this paper, we present a SRN model for performance analysis of channel allocation of multimedia mobile communication systems. The key contribution of this paper constitutes the Petri nets modeling techniques instead of complicate numerical analysis of Markov chains and easy way of performance analysis for channel allocations under SRN rewards concepts.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.77-87
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• 2015

Parrondo paradox is the counter-intuitive phenomenon where two losing games can be combined to win or two winning games can be combined to lose. In this paper, we consider an ensemble of players, one of whom is chosen randomly to play game A' or game B. In game A', the randomly chosen player transfers one unit of his capital to another randomly selected player. In game B, the player plays the history-dependent Parrondo game in which the winning probability of the present trial depends on the results of the last two trials in the past. We show that Parrondo paradox exists in this redistribution model of the history-dependent Parrondo game.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.94-97
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• 1992

In this paper, the individual number of the future has depended not only upon the present individual number but upon the present individual age, considering the stochastic process model of individual number when the life span of each individual number and the individual age as a set, this becomes a Markovian. Therefore, in this paper the individual is treated as invariable, without depending upon the whole record of each individual since its birth. As a result, suppose {N(t), t>0} be a counting process and also suppose $Z_n$ denote the life span between the (n-1)st and the nth event of this process, (n{$geq}1$) : that is, when the first individual is established at n=1(time, 0), the Z$Z_n$ at time nth individual breaks, down. Random walk $Z_n$ is $Z_n=X_1+X_2+{\cdots}{\cdots}+X_A, Z_0=0$ So, fixed time t, the stochastic model is made up as follows ; A) Recurrence (Regeneration)number between(0.t) $N_t=max{n ; Z_n{\leq}t}$ B) Forwardrecurrence time(Excess life) $T^-I_t=Z_{Nt+1}-t$ C) Backward recurrence time(Current life) $T^-_t=t-Z_{Nt}$

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.7-20
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• 1992

The common cycle time for the linded signals is usually determined for the critical intersecion, just because the cpacity of a signalized intersection depends on the cycle time. This may not be optimal since the interactions between the flow and the spatial structure of the route or the area are disregarded in this case. It is common to separate the total delay incurred at signals into two parts, a deterministic or uniform delay and a stochastic or random delay. The deterministic delays and the stochastic delays on the artery particularly related to signal cycle time. For this purpose a microscopic simulation technique is used to evaluate deterministic delays, and a macroscopic simulation technique based on the principles of Markov chains is used to evaluate stochastic delays with over flow queue. As a result of investigating the relations between deterministic delays and cycle time in the various circumstances of spacing of signals and traffic volume. As for stochastic delays the resalts of comparisons of the macroscopic simulation and Newell's approximation with the microscopic simulation indicate that the former is valid for the degree of saturation less than 0.95 and the latter is for that above 0.95. Newell's argument that the total stochastic delay on an arterial is dominated by that at or caused by critical intersection is certified by the simulation experiments. The comprehensive analyses of the values of optimal cycle time with various conditions lead to a model. The cycle time determined by this model shows to be approximately 70% of that calculated by Webster's.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.163-172
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• 2012

Modern society, various great strength crimes are producing. After all crimes happen, it is most important that prevent crime beforehand than that cope. So, many research studied to prevent various crime. However, existing method of studies are to analyze and prevent by society and psychological factors. Therefore we wishes to achieve research to forecast crime by time using Markov chain method. We embody modelling for crime occurrence estimate by crime type time using crime occurrence number of item data that is collected about 5 great strength offender strength, murder, rape, moderation, violence. And examined propriety of crime occurrence estimate modelling by time that propose in treatise that compare crime occurrence type crime occurrence estimate price and actuality occurrence value. Our proposed crime occurrence estimate techniques studied to apply maximum value by critcal value about great strength crime such as strength, murder, rape etc. actually, and heighten crime occurrence estimate probability by using way to apply mean value about remainder crime in this paper. So, we wish to more study about wide crime case and as the crime occurrence estimate rate and actuality value by time are different in crime type hereafter applied examples investigating.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.165-177
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• 2008

An important issue in Multiagent reinforcement learning is how an agent should learn its optimal policy in a dynamic environment where there exist other agents able to influence its own performance. Most previous works for Multiagent reinforcement learning tend to apply single-agent reinforcement learning techniques without any extensions or require some unrealistic assumptions even though they use explicit models of other agents. In this paper, a Naive Bayesian based policy model of the opponent agent is introduced and then the Multiagent reinforcement learning method using this model is explained. Unlike previous works, the proposed Multiagent reinforcement learning method utilizes the Naive Bayesian based policy model, not the Q function model of the opponent agent. Moreover, this learning method can improve learning efficiency by using a simpler one than other richer but time-consuming policy models such as Finite State Machines(FSM) and Markov chains. In this paper, the Cat and Mouse game is introduced as an adversarial Multiagent environment. And then effectiveness of the proposed Naive Bayesian based policy model is analyzed through experiments using this game as test-bed.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.30 no.1C
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• pp.35-43
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• 2005

This paper introduces a new algorithm to improve compression performance of 256 color images called palette-based or indexed images. The proposed scheme counts each frequency of index values after present index value and determines each rank for every index value by sorting them in descending order. Then, the scheme makes ranked index image instead of original indexed image using the way to replace index values with ranks. In the ranked index image's distribution produced as a result of this algorithm, the higher ranked index value, the more present same values. Therefore, data redundancy will be raised and more efficient performance of compression can be expected. Simulation results verify that because of higher compression ratio by up to 22.5, this newly designed algorithm shows a much better performance of compression in comparison with the arithmetic coding, intensity-based JPEG-LS and palette-based GIF.