• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.5B
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• pp.441-452
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• 2009

This paper describes the evaluation technique for climate change effect on daily precipitation frequency using daily precipitation generator that can use outputs of the climate model offered by IPCC DDC. Seoul station of KMA was selected as a study site. This study developed daily precipitation generation model based on two-state markov chain model which have transition probability, scale parameter, and shape parameter of Gamma-2 distribution. Each parameters were estimated from regression analysis between mentioned parameters and monthly total precipitation. Then the regression equations were applied for computing 4 parameters equal to monthly total precipitation downscaled by K-NN to generate daily precipitation considering climate change. A2 scenario of the BCM2 model was projected based on 20c3m(20th Century climate) scenario and difference of daily rainfall frequency was added to the observed rainfall frequency. Gumbel distribution function was used as a probability density function and parameters were estimated using probability weighted moments method for frequency analysis. As a result, there is a small decrease in 2020s and rainfall frequencies of 2050s, 2080s are little bit increased.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.53-77
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• 2013

As advertising and promotions are categorized as operating expenses, managers tend to reduce marketing budget to improve their short term profitability. Gauging the value and accountability of marketing spending is therefore considered as a major research priority in marketing. To respond this call, recent studies have documented that financial market reacts positively to a firm's marketing activity or marketing related outcomes such as brand equity and customer satisfaction. However, prior studies focus on the relation of marketing variable and financial market variables. This study suggests a channel about how marketing activity increases firm valuation. Specifically, we propose that a firm's marketing activity increases the level of the firm's product market information and thereby the dispersion in financial analysts' earnings forecasts decreases. With less uncertainty about the firm's future prospect, the firm's managers and shareholders have less information asymmetry, which reduces the firm's cost of capital and thereby increases the valuation of the firm. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to examine how informational benefits can mediate the effect of marketing activity on firm value. To test whether marketing activity contributes to increase in firm value by mitigating information asymmetry, this study employs a longitudinal data which contains 12,824 firm-year observations with 2,337 distinct firms from 1981 to 2006. Firm value is measured by Tobin's Q and one-year-ahead buy-and-hold abnormal return (BHAR). Following prior literature, dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts is used as a proxy for the information gap between management and shareholders. For model specification, to identify mediating effect, the three-step regression approach is adopted. All models are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to test the statistical significance of the mediating effect. The analysis shows that marketing intensity has a significant negative relationship with dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts. After including the mediator variable about analyst dispersion, the effect of marketing intensity on firm value drops from 1.199 (p < .01) to 1.130 (p < .01) in Tobin's Q model and the same effect drops from .192 (p < .01) to .188 (p < .01) in BHAR model. The results suggest that analysts' forecast dispersion partially accounts for the positive effect of marketing on firm valuation. Additionally, the same analysis was conducted with an alternative dependent variable (forecast accuracy) and a marketing metric (advertising intensity). The analysis supports the robustness of the main results. In sum, the results provide empirical evidence that marketing activity can increase shareholder value by mitigating problem of information asymmetry in the capital market. The findings have important implications for managers. First, managers should be cognizant of the role of marketing activity in providing information to the financial market as well as to the consumer market. Thus, managers should take into account investors' reaction when they design marketing communication messages for reducing the cost of capital. Second, this study shows a channel on how marketing creates shareholder value and highlights the accountability of marketing. In addition to the direct impact of marketing on firm value, an indirect channel by reducing information asymmetry should be considered. Potentially, marketing managers can justify their spending from the perspective of increasing long-term shareholder value.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.2B
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• pp.121-135
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• 2010

This study is to assess the effect of potential future climate change on the inflow of agricultural reservoir and its impact to downstream streamflow by reservoir operation for paddy irrigation water supply using the SLURP. Before the future analysis, the SLURP model was calibrated using the 6 years daily streamflow records (1998-200398 and validated using 3 years streamflow data (2004-200698 for a 366.5 $km^2$ watershed including two agricultural reservoirs (Geumgwang8 and Gosam98located in Anseongcheon watershed. The calibration and validation results showed that the model was able to simulate the daily streamflow well considering the reservoir operation for paddy irrigation and flood discharge, with a coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from s 7 to s 9 and 0.5 to s 8 respectively. Then, the future potential climate change impact was assessed using the future wthe fu data was downscaled by nge impFactor method throuih bias-correction, the future land uses wtre predicted by modified CA-Markov technique, and the future ve potentiacovfu information was predicted and considered by the linear regression bpowten mecthly NDVI from NOAA AVHRR ima ps and mecthly mean temperature. The future (2020s, 2050s and 2e 0s) reservoir inflow, the temporal changes of reservoir storaimpand its impact to downstream streamflow watershed wtre analyzed for the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios based on a base year (2005). At an annual temporal scale, the reservoir inflow and storaimpchange oue, anagricultural reservoir wtre projected to big decrease innautumnnunder all possiblmpcombinations of conditions. The future streamflow, soossmoosture and grounwater recharge decreased slightly, whtre as the evapotransporation was projected to increase largely for all possiblmpcombinations of the conditions. At last, this study was analysed contribution of weather, vegetation and land use change to assess which factor biggest impact on agricultural reservoir and stream watershed. As a result, weather change biggest impact on agricultural reservoir inflow, storage, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater recharge.

• Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.515-524
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• 2005

As the number of the mobile nodes (MNs) increases in the networks, the signaling traffic generated by mobility management for MNs will increase explosively, and such a phenomenon will probably affect overall network performance. In this paper, we propose a novel analytical approach using a continuous-time Markov chain model and hierarchical network model for the analysis on the signaling load of representative IPv6 mobility support Protocols such as Mobile IPv6 (MIPv6) and Hierarchical Mobile IPv6 (HMIPv6). According to these analytical modeling, this paper derives the various signaling costs, which are generated by an MN during its average domain residence time when MIPv6 and HMIPv6 are deployed under the same network architecture, respectively. In addition, based on these derived costs, we investigate the effects of various mobility/traffic-related parameters on the signaling costs generated by an MN under MIPv6 and HMIPv6. The analytical results show that as the average moving speed of an MN gets higher and the binding lifetime is set . to the larger value, and as its average packet arrival rate gets lower, the total signaling cost generated during its average domain residence time under HMIPv6 will get relatively lower than that under MIPv6, and that under the reverse conditions, the total signaling cost under MIPv6 will get relatively lower than that under HMIPv6.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.4049-4054
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• 2014

Background: Race and ethnicity are significant factors in predicting survival time of breast cancer patients. In this study, we applied advanced statistical methods to predict the survival of White non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients, who were diagnosed between the years 1973 and 2009 in the United States (U.S.). Materials and Methods: Demographic data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were used for the purpose of this study. Nine states were randomly selected from 12 U.S. cancer registries. A stratified random sampling method was used to select 2,000 female breast cancer patients from these nine states. We compared four types of advanced statistical probability models to identify the best-fit model for the White non-Hispanic female breast cancer survival data. Three model building criterion were used to measure and compare goodness of fit of the models. These include Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). In addition, we used a novel Bayesian method and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to determine the posterior density function of the parameters. After evaluating the model parameters, we selected the model having the lowest DIC value. Using this Bayesian method, we derived the predictive survival density for future survival time and its related inferences. Results: The analytical sample of White non-Hispanic women included 2,000 breast cancer cases from the SEER database (1973-2009). The majority of cases were married (55.2%), the mean age of diagnosis was 63.61 years (SD = 14.24) and the mean survival time was 84 months (SD = 35.01). After comparing the four statistical models, results suggested that the exponentiated Weibull model (DIC= 19818.220) was a better fit for White non-Hispanic females' breast cancer survival data. This model predicted the survival times (in months) for White non-Hispanic women after implementation of precise estimates of the model parameters. Conclusions: By using modern model building criteria, we determined that the data best fit the exponentiated Weibull model. We incorporated precise estimates of the parameter into the predictive model and evaluated the survival inference for the White non-Hispanic female population. This method of analysis will assist researchers in making scientific and clinical conclusions when assessing survival time of breast cancer patients.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.1597-1609
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• 2004

A lot of lipreading system has been proposed to compensate the rate of speech recognition dropped in a noisy environment. Previous lipreading systems work on some specific conditions such as artificial lighting and predefined background color. In this paper, we propose a real-time lipreading system which allows the motion of a speaker and relaxes the restriction on the condition for color and lighting. The proposed system extracts face and lip region from input video sequence captured with a common PC camera and essential visual information in real-time. It recognizes utterance words by using the visual information in real-time. It uses the hue histogram model to extract face and lip region. It uses mean shift algorithm to track the face of a moving speaker. It uses PCA(Principal Component Analysis) to extract the visual information for learning and testing. Also, it uses HMM(Hidden Markov Model) as a recognition algorithm. The experimental results show that our system could get the recognition rate of 90% in case of speaker dependent lipreading and increase the rate of speech recognition up to 40～85% according to the noise level when it is combined with audio speech recognition.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.74-82
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• 2016

In this paper, a new automatic speech recognition (ASR) was proposed where ultrasonic doppler signals were used, instead of conventional speech signals. The proposed method has the advantages over the conventional speech/non-speech-based ASR including robustness against acoustic noises and user comfortability associated with usage of the non-contact sensor. In the method proposed herein, 40 kHz ultrasonic signal was radiated toward to the mouth and the reflected ultrasonic signals were then received. Frequency shift caused by the doppler effects was used to implement ASR. The proposed method employed multi-channel ultrasonic signals acquired from the various locations, which is different from the previous method where single channel ultrasonic signal was employed. The PCA(Principal Component Analysis) coefficients were used as the features of ASR in which hidden markov model (HMM) with left-right model was adopted. To verify the feasibility of the proposed ASR, the speech recognition experiment was carried out the 60 Korean isolated words obtained from the six speakers. Moreover, the experiment results showed that the overall word recognition rates were comparable with the conventional speech-based ASR methods and the performance of the proposed method was superior to the conventional signal channel ASR method. Especially, the average recognition rate of 90 % was maintained under the noise environments.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.197-205
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• 2020

Korean language has the characteristics that the pronunciation of phoneme units such as vowels and consonants are fixed and the pronunciation associated with a notation does not change, so that foreign learners can approach rather easily Korean language. However, when one pronounces words, phrases, or sentences, the pronunciation changes in a manner of a wide variation and complexity at the boundaries of syllables, and the association of notation and pronunciation does not hold any more. Consequently, it is very difficult for foreign learners to study Korean standard pronunciations. Despite these difficulties, it is believed that systematic analysis of pronunciation errors for Korean words is possible according to the advantageous observations that the relationship between Korean notations and pronunciations can be described as a set of firm rules without exceptions unlike other languages including English. In this paper, we propose a visualization framework which shows the differences between standard pronunciations and erratic ones as quantitative measures on the computer screen. Previous researches only show color representation and 3D graphics of speech properties, or an animated view of changing shapes of lips and mouth cavity. Moreover, the features used in the analysis are only point data such as the average of a speech range. In this study, we propose a method which can directly use the time-series data instead of using summary or distorted data. This was realized by using the deep learning-based technique which combines Self-organizing map, variational autoencoder model, and Markov model, and we achieved a superior performance enhancement compared to the method using the point-based data.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.1919-1927
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• 1993

A new MAC protocol has been proposed and analysed to relieve the unfairness problems exhibited by the basic version of the DQDB standard. DQDB MAC protocol has the unfairness problems in throughputs. message delay and so or. And when the slots are reused or the file transmissions takes long, the unfairness problems in the system become worse. The new access protocol proposed here, which of called the Balanced DQDB, guarantees a fair bandwidth distribution by using one bit of the dual bus network protocol and keeps up all characteristics of DQDB. the DQDB analysis model introduced by Wen Jing, et al, was considered to analyse a sequential balance distribution of solts. And the probabilities of the empty in operation mode were represented to determine the probabilities for busy bits to generate on each node of the bus using the Markov chain. Through the simulations. the performances of the proposed Balanced DQDB and that of the standard DQDB of the BWB mechanism were compared at the state that the values of the RQ or CD counter on each node varied dynamically. As the results, it is shown that the Balanced DQDB has the decrement of throughputs in upstream, but the numbers of the used empty slots at each node of the Balanced DQDB had more than that of the others because the Balanced DQDB has over 0.9 throughputs in the 70~80% nodes of total node and it has constant throughputs at each node. And there results were analogous to that of the analytical model.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.2 no.6
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• pp.985-994
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• 1995

In this paper, we propose two hot standby architectures which not only provide high system availability but also lose little data on fault occurrence. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed hot standby architectures, the warm standby architecture. In order to evaluate the performance of the propose d hot standby architectures, the warm standby architecture which is made from the hot standby architecture by eliminating its synchronization unit is considered. After system unavailability for each architecture is computed by using the corresponding Markov state diagram, the results are compared and evaluated. As the results, in most cases, hot standby architectures have higher availability than warm standby architecture. Also, hot standby architecture with external synchronization unit always maintains a little higher availability than hot standby architecture with internal synchronization unit. Active set time and personnel recovery rate for each architecture have little effect on system availability. However, in the case that data recovery time is too long, system availabilities of hot standby architectures and warm standby architecture degrade rapidly. In this case, the performance degradation of hot standby architectures is severe, and system availabilities of hot standby architectures eventually become lower than system availability of warm standby architecture.