KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Downscaling Technique of Monthly GCM Using Daily Precipitation Generator

일 강수발생모형을 이용한 월 단위 GCM의 축소기법에 관한 연구

  • 경민수 (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부) ;
  • 이정기 (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부) ;
  • 김형수 (인하대학교 사회기반시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2009.06.01
  • Accepted : 2009.09.02
  • Published : 2009.09.30
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Abstract

This paper describes the evaluation technique for climate change effect on daily precipitation frequency using daily precipitation generator that can use outputs of the climate model offered by IPCC DDC. Seoul station of KMA was selected as a study site. This study developed daily precipitation generation model based on two-state markov chain model which have transition probability, scale parameter, and shape parameter of Gamma-2 distribution. Each parameters were estimated from regression analysis between mentioned parameters and monthly total precipitation. Then the regression equations were applied for computing 4 parameters equal to monthly total precipitation downscaled by K-NN to generate daily precipitation considering climate change. A2 scenario of the BCM2 model was projected based on 20c3m(20th Century climate) scenario and difference of daily rainfall frequency was added to the observed rainfall frequency. Gumbel distribution function was used as a probability density function and parameters were estimated using probability weighted moments method for frequency analysis. As a result, there is a small decrease in 2020s and rainfall frequencies of 2050s, 2080s are little bit increased.

본 연구에서는 IPCC DDC를 통해서 제공되는 월 단위 기후모형의 결과를 바탕으로 일 강수를 발생할 수 있는 일 강수 발생모형을 제안하고, 이를 이용해 기후변화가 일 강수빈도에 미치는 영향평가 기법을 기상청산하 서울지점을 대상으로 제시하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 일 강수발생모형은 2 state 마코브 체인 모형을 기반으로 개발되었으며, 강수를 발생시키는데 필요한 천이확률과 강수의 양을 결정짓는 Gamma-2 분포의 규모매개변수 및 형상매개변수는 회귀분석에 의한 월총강수량과의 관계를 통해서 산정되었다. 제시된 회귀분석 결과에 기후모형으로부터 K-NN방법에 의해서 서울지점으로 축소된 월 총강수량을 적용하여 기후변화가 고려된 일 강수를 발생시켰다. 기후모형으로는 BCM2모형을 사용하였으며, 20c3m 시나리오를 기준시나리오로 하여 A2 시나리오에서의 일 강우빈도의 차이를 산정하여 관측된 일 강우 빈도에 적용하였다. 빈도해석을 위한 분포형으로는 Gumbel분포를 선정하였으며, 매개변수 추정을 위하여 확률가중모멘트 방법을 적용하였다. 연구결과 미래 서울지역의 빈도별 일 강수량은 2020s에는 다소 감소, 2050s, 2080s 에는 다소 증가하는 것으로 예상 되었다.

Keywords

References

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