• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.429-442
• /
• 2015

Volatility forecasting in financial markets is an important issue because it is directly related to the profit of return. The volatility is generally modeled as time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is often used for modeling; however, it is not suitable to reflect structural changes (such as a financial crisis or debt crisis) into the volatility. As a remedy, we introduce the Markov regime switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) model. For the empirical example, we analyze and forecast the volatility of the daily Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) data from January 4, 2000 to October 30, 2014. The result shows that the regime of low volatility persists with a leverage effect. We also observe that the performance of MRS-GARCH is superior to other GARCH models for in-sample fitting; in addition, it is also superior to other models for long-term forecasting in out-of-sample fitting. The MRS-GARCH model can be a good alternative to GARCH-type models because it can reflect financial market structural changes into modeling and volatility forecasting.

• Management & Information Systems Review
• /
• v.38 no.1
• /
• pp.181-199
• /
• 2019

The purpose of this study is to examine whether or not the volatility of the 1997~1998 Asian crisis still affects the monthly stock returns of Korea, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China from 1980 to 2018. This study investigated whether the volatility has already fallen to pre-crisis levels. To illustrate the possible structural changes in the unconditioned variance due to the Asian financial crisis, we use the MRS-GARCH model, which is a regime switching model. The main results of this study were as follows: First, the stock return of each country was weak in the high volatility regime except Japan resulted by the Asian financial crisis from 1997 to 1998 until March 2018, and the Asian stock market has not yet calmed down except for the global financial crisis period of 2007 and 2008. Second, the conditional volatility has been significantly and persistently decreased and eliminated after the Asian financial crisis. Thus, we could be judged that the Asian stock market was not fully recovered(stable) due to the Asian crisis including the capital liberalization high inflation, worsening current account deficit, overseas low interest rates and expansion of credit growth in 1997 and 1998, but the Asian stock market was largely settled down, except for the 2007 and 2008 in Global financial crises. Considering the similarity between the Asian stock markets and the similar correlation of the regime switching, it may be worthwhile to analyze the MRS-GARCH model.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.12
• /
• pp.25-37
• /
• 2013

Purpose - The structure of retailing has changed as retailers develop markets in response to business environment changes. This study aims to analyze the general situation of retailers in order to predict future global strategy using case studies of overseas expansion strategy and the Metro Group's global strategy. Research design, data, and methodology - The backgrounds to the new retail business model and retailer classification are analyzed as theoretical data. In addition, the key success point of the Metro Group's "cash and carry" strategy is analyzed as is the Metro Group's global CFAR (collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment) strategy. Finally, the plan for cooperation and precise forecasting under the Metro Group's supply chain management are analyzed from the promotion environment viewpoint. Related materials analyzed included the 2012 annual report, the Metro Group's web page, and a video interview with the executive in charge of global strategy and the new market development department. Some data were revised to avoid disrupting essential aspects of the case studies. Results - The important finding was that the Metro Group could be a world-class retail company with its successful global expansion strategy. The Metro Group's global strategy's primary goal is to have a leading business position in Eastern and Western Europe. The "cash and carry" strategy is highest priority in its overseas expansion strategy. Moreover, the Metro Group has standardized product planning capacity, which could be applied in various countries with different structural and cultural backgrounds. This is the main reason that the Metro Group could rapidly become successful in the Eastern Europe and Asian markets through its structural overseas expansion strategies. In addition, the Metro Group emphasizes the importance of supply chain management. Conclusions - First, retailers should create additional value through utilizing the domestic market, market power, and economies of scale to launch a global strategy to maximize benefits from diversification. Second, the political, economic, and cultural background of the target country needs to be understood to successfully implement the overseas expansion strategy. Third, the main factor of successful cooperation with a local partner is how quickly the company gains total understanding of the business resources and core competence of its partner. All organizations should focus on the achievement of goals in order to successfully operate the partnership. Fourth, retailers should improve their business, financial and organizational structure. Moreover, the work processes and company culture should also be improved to respond strongly in the competitive global market. Fifth, the essential point of a successful retail business is the control capacity of its branding and format. The retailer could avoid forecasting errors through supply chain management by perfectly distributing the actual amount of its inventory. In addition, the risks along the supply chain are effectively shared between the supply chain partners. Finally, the central tendency of the market is to gain in strength with this taking place across all parts of the business.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
• /
• v.34 no.8
• /
• pp.1341-1351
• /
• 2010

The Korean jean market has become increasingly competitive due to the increased imports of global brands. This study is to understand the purchase behaviors of Korean college students toward foreign brand jeans to help Korean jean brands enhance their competitive advantages over foreign brand jeans in the Korean market. Considering perceptions of Korean consumers toward foreign brands and traditional value changes, this study proposed a research model incorporating two extended behavioral intention (BI) models, Lee's modified BI model and Ajzen's theory of planned behavior. To test the research model, a total of 240 valid data sets were collected from college students in Busan, Korea. Structural and measurement models were estimated using LISREL 8.80. Because face saving failed to attain internal validity, the research model was revised to eliminate face saving. The findings indicated that perceived behavioral control had the strongest direct influence on purchase intentions of Korean college students for foreign brand jeans. Group conformity and subjective norm had non-significant direct impacts on purchase intention, whereas group conformity had an indirect impact on purchase intention through attitude. Based on the findings, theoretical and managerial implications were provided.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
• /
• v.8 no.5
• /
• pp.183-188
• /
• 2018

This paper examines career self-help advice in light of its influence on white-collar job searching in the US. After a brief overview of the white-collar labor market changes in the past few decades and the rise of the career self-help industry in America, it focuses on career self-help advice concerning a resume and networking that involves the use of information communication technology (ICT) through the review of career self-help manuals and other related literature. Finally, it looks at some of its major limits, especially the problem of presenting job searching in terms of individual efforts without regard to its structural aspects and its implications - individual responsibility for job searching and its outcomes - along with a suggestion for the type of help that can be offered to job seekers.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.30 no.1
• /
• pp.77-96
• /
• 1999

Since the onset of its economic reform and the open door policy in the late 1970s, China's overall economic growth rate has been continuing about 10% per year. The marine sector is not allowed exception, aquatic products increased sharply from 4.66 million MT in 1978 to 36.02 million MT in 1997, and then China is remained the largest producing country in the world aquatic market and her role would be expanded. Korea having a common boundaries to China is subjected unescapably both in domestic and export markets by the influence of the remarkable growth of China's aquatic products. If China were admitted entrance of WTO(World Trade Organization)in the near future, her influence is getting more serious. Well, we are necessary to understand the characteristics of China's aquatic products and to review fishery policies implemented by the China government. This paper is organized into two major parts, the one includes the structural changes of aquatic products, fishing and cultivating in the coast, latent and estimated production in China, and the other includes the main contents of fishery policies and measures of government administration. A characteristic of China's aquatic products is that cultivated production, especially, shellfish outputs continues to rapid increase. The major means of administration are an execution of fishing license system and setting up no-fishing zone and closed season for fishery. China is no longer a marginal player in international economic and world aquatic market. So, we will not only understand China's aquatic conditions and problems, but will also see the usefulness in continuing the cooperative relationship for a long time to come.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
• /
• v.38C no.9
• /
• pp.733-739
• /
• 2013

Recently mobile service industry has grown very rapidly. In this paper, I investigated the changes in mobile service industry as well as new direction of human life in future global society. Under these changing market conditions, competition has been also changed into global and ecological competition. But compared to the platform initiatives and ecological strategies of global companies, Korean companies' vision of building ecosystems is still unclear. New directions of mobile service industry are smart phone oriented open market, UCC, QPS and cloud computing. As such, I investigate the structure of mobile service ecosystem in order to gain strategic implications and insights in this paper.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.13-26
• /
• 2022

Purpose: The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated and triggered changes in online shopping especially in an emerging market. This paper develops a modification of SERVQUAL model to examine the relationship between individual dimensions of e-service quality, online trust and purchase intentions in singular online shopping platform. Research design, data and methodology: Data from an online survey of 385 Lazada's shoppers were used to test the research model. The structural equation modeling technique was performed to test the research model. Results: The analytical results revealed that five dimensions of e-service quality were positively correlated with one another whereas some dimensions were negatively correlated with purchase intentions. The results of this study provide new insight into the literature as well as practical implications for marketers especially in Thai online market. Conclusion: This study develops the instrument dimensions of e-service quality through modifying the SERVQUAL model to examine the e-commerce context and to testify how these individual dimensions are interlinked with one another. It also suggests that responsiveness has two-sided affects that in responses which are too prompt and insistent could make the customer feel uncomfortable and perhaps ending up with no interaction and transaction.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.21 no.12
• /
• pp.113-125
• /
• 2023

Purpose: Support policies for small and medium-sized retailers (SMSRs) have been promoted in various ways over the past 20 years, but they are generally regarded as unsuccessful. The purpose of this study is to analyze the process and impact of policy changes, identify the reasons for the lack of success, and explore policy alternatives. Research design, data and methodology: This study explored major policies in various categories such as the retail industry, traditional markets, and Micro-Enterprises from the mid-1990s to the present. It also analyzed the short- and long-term impacts of major policies at the retail format level like SMSRs, using data from Statistics Korea's service industry survey. Results: This research found that sudden shifts in policy philosophy conflicted with the existing market structure and reduced the effectiveness of policies. It also found that policies aimed at improving competitiveness at the SMSRs-level had some effect, while polices aimed at supporting expenses at the individual store-level were difficult to achieve their intended purpose. Conclusions: The failure of the policy to support SMSRs is fundamentally due to the late response and conflicts between policies. It was also not successful due to the policy's focus on individual store-level expenses and maintaining employment rather than structural improvements of SMSRs format.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
• /
• v.24 no.6 s.84
• /
• pp.177-193
• /
• 2006

This study analyzes marriage and fertility rates in Korea and makes recommendations for family policy. Based on the 'The Report of Marriage & Divorce Statistics in 2005' and data from the Korea Statistical Information System (KOSIS) of the National Statistics Organization, the trends, reasons for marriage rates changes, and future expectations were critically reviewed. In addition, the relationship between marriage and fertility rates was analyzed. The principle characteristics of marriage rates are as follows: 1) the M-shape of the longitudinal crude marriage rates; 2) the increased age of individuals entering their the first marriage; 3) the increase in remarriage rates; 4) the changes in the patterns of remarriage; 5) the increased in the age at which individuals remarry and; 6) the increase in marriage to non-Koreans. The marriage and fertility rates changes are a permanent normative shift because of 1) later marriage because of women's increased education and labor force participation 2) rational choices about birth control 3) reduced population because of the aging of baby boomers 4) structural changes in the marriage market and 5) egalitarian changes in women's attitudes toward marriage and family. The recommendations for future family policy were as follows: 1) the need for a realistic, long-term family policy because the current marriage patterns will continue; 2) the need to develop new statistics such as fertility rates that are based on marriage cohort or birth cohort because family behavior is a mixture of personal, social and political responses; 3) the need for impact analysis of current family policy about increasing fertility rates; 4) the need for a new family perspective that encompasses diverse marriage and family patterns; 5) the need to focus on men's role in families because of women's changing roles and family interaction patterns and; 6) the need for preventive family policies such as family life education.