• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.149-156
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• 2020

The study aims to investigate a close relation between macro and non-macro variables on stock performance of tourism companies in Korea. The sample used in this study includes monthly data from January 2001 to December 2018. The stock price index of the tourism companies as a dependent variable are obtained from Sejoong, HanaTour, and RedcapTour as three leading Korean tourism companies that have been listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. This study assesses the tourism stock performance using the quantile regression approach. This study also investigates whether global crisis events as the Iraq War and the global financial crisis as non-macro variables have a significant effect on the stock performance of tourism companies in Korea. The results show that the oil prices, exchange rate and industrial production have negative coefficients on stock prices of tourism companies, while the effects of tourist expenditure and consumer price index are positive and significant. We estimate the result of quantile regression that non-macro determinants have statistically a significant and negative effect on tourism stock performance because the global crisis could threaten traveler's safety and economy. Overall, empirical results suggest that the effects of macro and non-macro variables are statistically asymmetric and highly related to tourism stock performance.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.285-294
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• 2022

Using the ARDL approach, this study examined the impact of macro factors on Vietnam's stock market in the short and long run from 2010 to 2021. The State Bank of Vietnam and the International Monetary Fund provided time series data for this study. Research results show that in the long run, money supply and exchange rate respectively affect the stock market. The money supply had a positive effect on the VN-Index, while the exchange rate showed the opposite effect. However, the study did not find a relationship between world oil price and interest rates on VN-Index in the long run. On the other hand, in the short term, there are relationships between variables; specifically, interest rates and exchange rates have a negative impact on the VN-Index, while the world oil price and the fluctuation of money supply M2 of the previous one and two months showed an impact in the same direction on this index. The differences in the regression results on the impact of exchange rate and oil price on the VN-Index compared to previous studies come from the characteristics of Vietnam's stock market, with the large capitalization of companies in the oil and gas sector, and the structure of Vietnam's economy with export heavily depends on FDI sector.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.47-56
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• 2020

The stock index is used not only as an economic indicator for a country, but also as an indicator for investment judgment, which is why research into predicting the stock index is ongoing. The task of predicting the stock price index involves technical, basic, and psychological factors, and it is also necessary to consider complex factors for prediction accuracy. Therefore, it is necessary to study the model for predicting the stock price index by selecting and reflecting technical and auxiliary factors that affect the fluctuation of the stock price according to the stock price. Most of the existing studies related to this are forecasting studies that use news information or macroeconomic indicators that create market fluctuations, or reflect only a few combinations of indicators. In this paper, this we propose to present an effective combination of the news information sentiment analysis and various macroeconomic indicators in order to predict the US Dow Jones Index. After Crawling more than 93,000 business news from the New York Times for two years, the sentiment results analyzed using the latest natural language processing techniques BERT and NLTK, along with five macroeconomic indicators, gold prices, oil prices, and five foreign exchange rates affecting the US economy Combination was applied to the prediction algorithm LSTM, which is known to be the most suitable for combining numeric and text information. As a result of experimenting with various combinations, the combination of DJI, NLTK, BERT, OIL, GOLD, and EURUSD in the DJI index prediction yielded the smallest MSE value.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.159-172
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate economic variables which have impact on the prices and returns of preferred stocks and to provide investors, underwriters, and policy makers with information regarding correlations and causal relations between them. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 98 monthly data from Korea Exchange and Bank of Korea. The Granger causal relation analysis, unit-root test and the multiple regression analysis were hired in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, our study derives the economic variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and their implications, while previous studies focused mainly on the differential characteristics and related economic factors between common and preferred stocks. Empirical results show that the significant variables influencing the prices and returns of preffered stocks are consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, industrial production index, KOSPI volatility index, and exchange rate between Korean won and US dollar. Second, consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, and industrial production index have significant casual relations with the returns of preferred stocks, providing market participants with important information regarding investment in preferred stocks. Research implications or Originality - This study is different from previous studies in that preferred stocks themselves are investigated rather than the gap between common stocks and preferred stocks. In addition, we derive the major macro variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and find some useful causal relations between the macro variables and returns of preferred stocks. These findings give important implications to market participants, including stock investors, underwriters, and policy makers.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.755-764
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• 2015

This study investigates if the relationships between hemline and macro-economic factors (rGDP, recession, and unemployment) are still applicable as well as analyzes time lags that reflect economic factors on the hemline index using U.S. data. The hemline theory and fashion cyclical theory were applied to propose the relationships studied. The data for the hemline measurements of women's day-wear were obtained from US Vogue spring and fall editions from 1950 to 2014. Data were standardized by dividing the length from shoulder to hemline by the length from the shoulder to ankle. I aggregated 2260 samples and hemline data to create a yearly average. This study used OLS of Stata 13 program to explore the relationship between macro-economic factors and hemline. The main findings were the recession and unemployment influenced hemline length for four years in a positive direction. Furthermore, the effects of previous recession and unemployment on the current hemline were very close to the significant level respectively. This finding supports the hemline theory in that a recessionary economy is related to longer hemlines and hemlines become shorter in flourishing economic periods.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.8
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• pp.197-204
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• 2020

Nowadays, many construction engineering and technology enterprises are evolving to find that prosperity is driven and inspired by an open economy with dynamic markets and fierce multifaceted competition. Besides brand and product uniqueness, the ability to quickly provide customers with quotes are matters of concern. Such a requirement for prompt cost estimation of construction investment projects with the use of a construction price index poses a significant challenge to contractors. This is because the nature of the construction industry is shaped by changes in domestic and foreign economic factors, socio-financial issues, and is under the influence of various micro and macro factors. This paper presents a fuzzy decision-making approach for calculating critical factors that affect the construction price index. A qualitative approach was implemented based on in-depth interviews of experts in the construction industry in Vietnam. A synthetic comparison matrix was calculated using Buckley approach. The CoA approach was applied to defuzzified the fuzzy weights of factors that affect the construction price index. The research results show that the top five critical factors affecting the construction price index in Vietnam are (1) consumer price index, (2) gross domestic product, (3) basic interest rate, (4) foreign exchange rate, and (5) total export and import.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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• v.65 no.7
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• pp.86-100
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• 2015

This study is to investigate the relationships between heel height and macro-economic factors - recession and unemployment; and to analyze the time lags reflecting economic factors on heel height index using U.S. data. The life-history evolution theory was applied to propose the relationships studied. The data for the heel height measurements of women's shoes - pump style only - were obtained from US Vogue fashion editorial sections on spring and fall editions from 1950 to 2014. I divided the heel height by the length of the shoes in order to standardize the data. Total of 1581 samples were used, and heel height data were aggregated to create a yearly average. To explore the relationships between macro-economic factors and heel height, this study used OLS of Stata 13 program. The main findings show that unemployment rates influenced heel height for three years in a positive direction. Furthermore, the effects of unemployment rate from two years ago on the current heel height were very close to being on a significant level.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.305-336
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• 2022

This study applied the macro-micro simulation model (i.e., what-if analysis) to investigate the impact of transport related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on poverty and income inequality in Laos. We selected Laos as a case study of a developing country. We used the standard GTAP model with the GTAP database (version 10) for the macrosimulation, whereas we used the household model with the latest Lao household data from 2019 for the microsimulation. Our findings revealed that the output of the Lao economy was anticipated to increase by up to 0.3%, while the poverty rate was anticipated to decline from 17.0% to 15.7%. However, there would be winners and losers in industries and groups of households in different areas. In particular, rich households with a comparative socioeconomic advantage, such as in education, engagement in nonfarm business, and infrastructure access, would mostly gain benefits; consequently, this would lead to higher inequality in Laos. Therefore, the inequality index (i.e., the Gini coefficient) would increase from 41.2 to 60.1. After a simulation of BRI transport, we also found that some nonpoor households, which are mainly associated with farm activities and lower educational levels, would fall into poverty.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.133-156
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• 2014

In general, quantity results of empirical analysis using model shows how much big performance policy has. Therefore this is useful to evaluate a policy. This paper composed macro economic model based on Bank of Korea's quarterly model and annual model, that estimates performance of overseas oil and gas development project to Korean economy in aspect of quantity. In this model, we estimated each effect in real GDP, current account, unemployment rate, CPI and exchange rate carried by recovered amount from overseas oil and gas development project. The recovered amount was evaluated in currency coming from oil and gas acquired from overseas oil and gas development project. Macro economic model of this paper benchmarked macro model composed by Bank of Korea(1997, 2004, 2012). We reviewed model robustness using statistical suitability of each equation and historical simulation for from 1994 to 2011. The recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project has positive effect in every macro economic index except CPI and exchange rate. Economic effect to macro economic index become bigger with time because the recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project are increasing until now. Although empirical results of economic effects in every year from the recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project are different, as of 2011, empirical results showed that the recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project increase 2.226% and 0.401% in current account and real GDP respectively. And it also decrease 0.489%p in unemployment rate. Exchange rate to US dollars also decrease in amount of 0.379%.

• Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.26-35
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• 2012

Korea is now the 12th largest economy in the world, surpassing its annual trade in the amount of $1 trillion, and it has joined the socalled 20-50 Club, becoming one of the seven countries in the world with capita income of more than $20,000 with population of 50 million. However it ranked 24th of the Global competitiveness index evaluated by World Economic Forum based on the basic requirements including infrastructures, efficiency enhances, innovation and sophistication factors, etc. The extensive and efficient SOC infrastructures are critical for ensuring the global competitiveness of each country. Effective modes of SOC facilities including quality roads, railroads, ports, air transport, etc will be able to reduce the annual traffic congestion cost as well as macro economic logistics costs in Korea, thereby the global competitiveness can be strengthened in the global market.