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http://dx.doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2014.23.1.133

Estimation of Economic Effects on Overseas Oil and Gas E&P by Macroeconomic Model of Korea  

Kim, Ji-Whan (R&D Strategy Office, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources)
Chung, Woo Jin (Resources Development Research Division, Korea Energy Economics Institute)
Kim, Yoon Kyung (Department of Economics, Ewha Womans University)
Publication Information
Environmental and Resource Economics Review / v.23, no.1, 2014 , pp. 133-156 More about this Journal
Abstract
In general, quantity results of empirical analysis using model shows how much big performance policy has. Therefore this is useful to evaluate a policy. This paper composed macro economic model based on Bank of Korea's quarterly model and annual model, that estimates performance of overseas oil and gas development project to Korean economy in aspect of quantity. In this model, we estimated each effect in real GDP, current account, unemployment rate, CPI and exchange rate carried by recovered amount from overseas oil and gas development project. The recovered amount was evaluated in currency coming from oil and gas acquired from overseas oil and gas development project. Macro economic model of this paper benchmarked macro model composed by Bank of Korea(1997, 2004, 2012). We reviewed model robustness using statistical suitability of each equation and historical simulation for from 1994 to 2011. The recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project has positive effect in every macro economic index except CPI and exchange rate. Economic effect to macro economic index become bigger with time because the recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project are increasing until now. Although empirical results of economic effects in every year from the recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project are different, as of 2011, empirical results showed that the recovered amount of overseas oil and gas development project increase 2.226% and 0.401% in current account and real GDP respectively. And it also decrease 0.489%p in unemployment rate. Exchange rate to US dollars also decrease in amount of 0.379%.
Keywords
overseas oil and gas development; macroeconomic model; national income; E&P;
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