• Title/Summary/Keyword: ME Estimation

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Uncertainty analysis of quantitative rainfall estimation based on weather radars (기상레이더 기반 정량적 강수추정에서의 불확실성 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.23-23
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    • 2017
  • 기상레이더는 강우량을 바로 추정하지 못하는 특성으로 인해 정량적 강우산출 과정 중에 다양한 원인으로 인해 불확실성 발생 요소가 존재하나 이를 정량화하고 저감하는데 많은 어려움이 있다. 원인을 살펴보면, 첫째, 기상레이더의 관측에서부터 정량적 강우량 추정까지 일련의 과정에 대한 포괄적으로 불확실성 정량화와 분석이 이루어지지 못하며, 둘째, 전체 불확실성이 어느 정도 되는지 제시하지 못하므로 각 단계별 불확실성이 전체 불확실성 대비 어느 정도 비율이 되는지 제시하지 못한다. 마지막으로 기존 연구들은 불확실성을 줄이고자 여러 방법을 사용하고 있으나 어느 정도 효용성이 있는지 불확실성 측면에서 제시하지 못하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 Maximum Entropy(ME)와 Uncertainty Delta Method(UMD)를 이용한 접근방법을 제안하여 기상레이더를 활용하여 정량적 강우량을 추정하는 일련의 과정에서 단계별로 불확실성이 어떻게 전파되는지 추정하였다. 본 연구에서는 한반도 전역을 대상으로 2012년 여름철(6~8월)에 발생한 18개 강우사례를 이용하여 품질관리(Open Radar Product Generator 품질관리 알고리즘, fuzzy 알고리즘), 강우추정(Window Probability Matching Method, Marshall-Palmer 관계식), 후처리보정(Local Gauge Correction 기법, Gauge to Radar ratio 기법)단계만을 수행하였으며, 이 결과를 바탕으로 기상레이더 정량적 강우추정 단계별 불확실성을 정량화하였다. 정량화결과, 최종적으로 관측단계의 불확실성보다 최종 불확실성이 줄어들었으나, 강우추정 단계에서 불확실성이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 어떤 강우추정식을 적용하느냐에 따라 레이더 강우추정결과가 매우 달라질 수 있음을 의미한다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제시한 불확실성 정량화 방법을 통하여 첫째, 전체 및 단계별 불확실성을 정량화할 수 있고, 둘째, 최종 불확실성 대비 각 단계별 불확실성을 비율을 제시할 수 있으며, 마지막으로 수행단계별로 불확실성 전파과정을 파악할 수 있다. 이는 향후 정량적 레이더 강우추정 과정에 있어서 불확실성을 발생시키는 주요 원인파악과 이에 대한 집중적인 투자를 가능하게 한다. 이러한 과정을 통하여 보다 정확한 정량적 레이더 강우추정이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

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Improvement of CSVR used for Flood Damage Estimation based on Insurance Claim DB (침수피해액 추정을 위한 CSVR의 보험 Claim DB 기반 개선)

  • Baek, Chun Woo;Roh, Jin Yong;Lee, You Me;Park, Hong Gyu;Bae, Young Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.193-193
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    • 2019
  • 기후변화로 인한 거대 자연재해 발생의 위험이 지속적으로 증가하고 있으며, 국외의 경우 주요정부기관, 보험사 및 연구기관 중심으로 자연재해 피해예측 모델을 개발하여 사용하고 있다. 침수사고 인한 피해는 건물은 물론이고 가재도구, 재고자산, 기계시설 등의 내용물에서도 발생하며, 건축물 신축단가 등을 이용해 비교적 쉽게 자산가치를 산정할 수 있는 건물구조물과 다르게, 건물내용물의 자산가치는 시설물의 업종, 용도, 사용자 특성 등에 따라 변동성이 큰 특징이 있다. 내용물의 피해액 추정을 위해 자연재해 피해예측 모델은 건물 구조물과 내용물 가치의 비율인 CSVR(Contents to Structure Value Ratio)을 사용하며, CSVR은 시설물 용도에 따른 자산가치평가 통계를 이용해 산정할 수 있다. 충분한 자산가치평가 DB를 확보할 경우 CSVR의 정확도 확보가 가능할 것이며, 이를 위해 국내에서는 민간보험사의 재물보험 계약 4만여건의 건물, 내용물 보험가입금액을 행정안전부 도로명전자지도에서 분류하는 건물 용도에 따라 분석한 연구결과가 있다. 하지만, 일반적으로 보험가입단계에서 대략적으로 추정하는 보험가입금액과 실제 자산의 가치는 차이가 있을 수 있지만, 보험가입물건의 실제 자산가치는 일부만 DB화 되어 있는 단점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 사고 발생 후 작성되는 손해사정보고서에서 평가한 정확한 자산가치 DB를 수집하여, 보험가입금액을 기준으로 산정한 CSVR의 결과와 비교하였다. 손해사정보고서에서 평가한 실제 자산가치를 기준으로 분석한 CSVR과 보험가입금액을 기준으로 산정한 CSVR은, 업종에 따라 유사하거나 큰 차이를 보이는 경우도 있었으며, 침수로 인한 정확한 피해액 추정을 위해서는 보다 양질의 DB확보를 통한 CSVR의 정확도 확보가 필요한 것으로 분석되었다.

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Hydraulic Parameter Estimation of a Granite Area Using Slug Tests (순간충격시험에 의한 화강암지역의 수리적 매개변수 산출)

  • 함세영;김문수;성익환;이병대;김광성
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.63-79
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    • 2001
  • This study is aimed for estimating hydraulic parameters using the Cooper-Bredehoeft-Papadopulos, the Hvorslev, and the Bouwer & Rice methods at nineteen test holes in Me. Geumjeong area composed of Bulguksa granites, and for characterizing hydraulic properties at the test holes with relatioll to drill core data. The relation among hydraulic Dammeters obtained by the three methods is also considered. The study area is divided into four sub-areas to consider the hydraulic characteristics. The difference of hydraulic conductivity estimates between the injection and the withdrawal slug test may be due to penncable fracture distlibutions around the test hole and/or the disturbance of fine mateIials in the fractures induced by the pressure variation due to different mechanisms of test initiation. The hydraulic conductivity estimates detennined by the Cooper-Bredehoeft-Papadopulos, the Hvorslev and the Bouwer & Rice methods ranges from 10$^{-8}$ to lO$^{-5}$m/sec, and the ranges of average values are from 10$^{-7}$ to 10$^{-6}$m/sec. Also, the transmissivity ranges from 10$^{-7}$ to 10$^{-5}$$m^2$/sec. Comparing average hydraulic conductivity by the Cooper-Bredehoeft-Papadopulos, the Hvorslev and the Bouwer & Rice methods, by the Hvorslev method has the highest values, then the Bouwer & Rice method, and the Cooper-Bredehoeft-Papadopulos method has the lowest.

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Association of a Pre-miR-27a Polymorphism with Cancer Risk: an Updated Meta-analysis

  • Bai, Rong-Pan;Weng, Yu;Su, Li-Ling;Jin, Ming-Juan;Xu, Zheng-Ping;Lu, Li-Qin;Chen, Guang-Di
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.23
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    • pp.10107-10114
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    • 2015
  • MicroRNA-27a is highly expressed in cancers and has been identified as an oncogenic microRNA. A genetic variant in pre-miR-27a (rs895819) with a transition of A to G has been demonstrated to be associated with cancer risk; however, the results of these studies remain conflicting rather than conclusive. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to derive a more precise estimation. Through searching PubMed or other databases up to March 2014 using the following MeSH terms and keywords, "miR-27a", "polymorphism" and "cancer", seventeen case-control studies were identified in this meta-analysis, including 7,813 cases and 9,602. Crude odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to investigate the association strength between rs895819 and the susceptibility of cancer. The results of the overall meta-analysis did not suggest any association between rs895819 polymorphism and cancer susceptibility, and this remained in Asians as a subgroup. In Caucasians, however, the rs895819 was associated with a reduced cancer risk in heterozygous (OR, 0.83; 95%CI, 0.75-0.93) and dominant models (OR, 0.84; 95%CI, 0.76-0.93), and the [G] allele of rs895819 showed a protective effect (OR, 0.90, 95%CI, 0.84-0.97). Further studies showed a significant association between the [G] allele of rs895819 and decreased risk of breast cancer (0.91; 95%CI, 0.85-0.98), and stratified analyses indicated a protective effect of the [G] allele in Caucasians (OR, 0.89; 95%CI, 0.82-0.98), younger breast cancer cases (OR, 0.87; 95%CI, 0.79-0.96), and in the group of unilateral breast cancer patients (OR, 0.90; 95%CI, 0.83-0.97). These findings suggest an association between pre-miR-27a polymorphism rs895819 and cancer risk in Caucasians. The protective effect of rs895819 [G] allele in younger breast cancer and in the group of unilateral breast cancer patients await further confirmation since the included studies in this meta-analysis were limited.

Auto-Segmentation Algorithm For Liver-Vessel From Abdominal MDCT Image (복부 MDCT 영상으로부터 간혈관 자동 추출 알고리즘)

  • Park, Seong-Me;Lee, You-Jin;Park, Jong-Won
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.430-437
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    • 2010
  • It is essential for living donor liver transplantation that surgeon must understand the hepatic vessel structure to improve the success rate of operation. In this paper, we extract the liver boundary without other surrounding structures such as heart, stomach, and spleen using the contrast enhanced MDCT liver image sequence. After that, we extract the major hepatic veins (left, middle, right hepatic vein) with morphological filter after review the basic structure of hepatic vessel which reside in segmented liver image region. The purpose of this study is provide the overall status of transplantation operation with size estimation of resection part which is dissected along with the middle hepatic vein. The method of liver extraction is as follows: firstly, we get rid of background and muscle layer with gray level distribution ratio from sampling process. secondly, the coincident images match with unit mesh image are unified with resulted image using the corse coordinate of liver and body. thirdly, we extract the final liver image after expanding and region filling. Using the segmented liver images, we extract the hepatic vessels with morphological filter and reversed the major hepatic vessels only with a results of ascending order of vessel size. The 3D reconstructed views of hepatic vessel are generated after applying the interpolation to provide the smooth view. These 3D view are used to estimate the dissection line after identify the middle hepatic vein. Finally, the volume of resection region is calculated and we can identify the possibility of successful transplantation operation.

Wind Effect on the Distribution of Daily Minimum Temperature Across a Cold Pooling Catchment (냉기호 형성 집수역의 일 최저기온 분포에 미치는 바람효과)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Dae-Jun;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.277-282
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    • 2012
  • When wind speed exceeds a certain threshold, daily minimum temperature does not drop as predicted by the geospatial model in a cold pooling catchment. A linear regression equation was derived to explain the warming effect of wind speed on daily minimum temperature by analyzing observations at a low lying location within an enclosed catchment. The equation, Y=2X+0.4 ($R^2$=0.76) where Y stands for the warming ($^{\circ}C$) and X for the mean horizontal wind speed (m/s) at 2m height, was combined to an existing model to predict daily minimum temperature across an enclosed catchment on cold pooling days. The adjusted model was applied to 3 locations submerged in a cold air pool to predict daily minimum temperature on 25 cold pooling days with the input of simulated wind speed at each location. Results showed that bias (mean error) was reduced from -1.33 to -0.37 and estimation error (RMSE) from 1.72 to 1.20, respectively, in comparison with those from the unadjusted model.

Pervaporation of binary Water/Methanol and Water/Butanol Mixtures through Zeolite 4A Membranes: Experiments and Modeling (제올라이트 4A 분리막을 이용한 물/메탄올, 물/부탄올 혼합물의 투과증발 특성 연구: 실험 및 모형)

  • Oh, Woong-Jin;Jung, Jae-Chil;Yeo, Jeong-gu;Lee, Jung Hyun;Kim, Hyunuk;Park, Young Cheol;Lee, Dong-Ho;Moon, Jong-Ho;Cho, Churl-Hee
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.487-498
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    • 2017
  • In this study, pervaporation performances of water/methanol and water/butanol mixture were evaluated using zeolite 4A membranes manufacutred by FINETECH by experimental works and numerical modeling. Permeation and separation characteristics, such as flux and separation factor, were analyzed by gas chromatography (TCD) and liquid nitrogen traps. Experiments have shown that water is selectively separated from a mixture of water and methanol (separation factor up to approximately 250) and water and butanol (separation factor up to approximately 1,500). Generalized Maxwell Stefan (GMS) theory was implemented to predict pervaporation behaviors of water/alcohol mixtures and diffusional coefficients of zeolite layer were obtained through parameter estimation using $MATLAB^{(R)}$ optimization toolbox. Since the pore size of zeolite 4A are much larger than kinetic diameter of water molecules and smaller than those of methanol and butanol, zeolite 4A membranes can be applied to in situ water removal process such as membrane reactors or hybrid reaction-dehydration process.

Estimation of Jaw and MLC Transmission Factor Obtained by the Auto-modeling Process in the Pinnacle3 Treatment Planning System (피나클치료계획시스템에서 자동모델화과정으로 얻은 Jaw와 다엽콜리메이터의 투과 계수 평가)

  • Hwang, Tae-Jin;Kang, Sei-Kwon;Cheong, Kwang-Ho;Park, So-Ah;Lee, Me-Yeon;Kim, Kyoung-Ju;Oh, Do-Hoon;Bae, Hoon-Sik;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.269-276
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    • 2009
  • Radiation treatment techniques using photon beam such as three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) as well as intensity modulated radiotherapy treatment (IMRT) demand accurate dose calculation in order to increase target coverage and spare healthy tissue. Both jaw collimator and multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) for photon beams have been used to achieve such goals. In the Pinnacle3 treatment planning system (TPS), which we are using in our clinics, a set of model parameters like jaw collimator transmission factor (JTF) and MLC transmission factor (MLCTF) are determined from the measured data because it is using a model-based photon dose algorithm. However, model parameters obtained by this auto-modeling process can be different from those by direct measurement, which can have a dosimetric effect on the dose distribution. In this paper we estimated JTF and MLCTF obtained by the auto-modeling process in the Pinnacle3 TPS. At first, we obtained JTF and MLCTF by direct measurement, which were the ratio of the output at the reference depth under the closed jaw collimator (MLCs for MLCTF) to that at the same depth with the field size $10{\times}10\;cm^2$ in the water phantom. And then JTF and MLCTF were also obtained by auto-modeling process. And we evaluated the dose difference through phantom and patient study in the 3D-CRT plan. For direct measurement, JTF was 0.001966 for 6 MV and 0.002971 for 10 MV, and MLCTF was 0.01657 for 6 MV and 0.01925 for 10 MV. On the other hand, for auto-modeling process, JTF was 0.001983 for 6 MV and 0.010431 for 10 MV, and MLCTF was 0.00188 for 6 MV and 0.00453 for 10 MV. JTF and MLCTF by direct measurement were very different from those by auto-modeling process and even more reasonable considering each beam quality of 6 MV and 10 MV. These different parameters affect the dose in the low-dose region. Since the wrong estimation of JTF and MLCTF can lead some dosimetric error, comparison of direct measurement and auto-modeling of JTF and MLCTF would be helpful during the beam commissioning.

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Tegumental ultrastructure of juvenile and adult Echinostoma cinetorchis (이전고환극구흡충 유약충 및 성충의 표피 미세구조)

  • 이순형;전호승
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 1992
  • The tegumental ultrastructure of juvenile and adult Echinostoma cinetorchis (Trematoda: Echinostomatidae) was observed by scanning electron microscopy. Three-day (juvenile) and 16-day (adult) worms were harvested from rats (Sprague-Dawley) experimentally fed the metacercariae from the laboratory-infected fresh water snail, Hippeutis cantori. The worms were fifed with 2.5% glutaraldehyde, processed routinely, and observed by an ISI Korea DS-130 scanning electron microscope. The 3-day old juvenile worms were elongated and ventrally curved, with their ventral sucker near the anterior two-fifths of the body. The head crown was bearing 37∼38 collar spines arranged in a zigzag pattern. The lips of the oral and ventral suckers had 8 and 5 type II sensory papillae respectively, and bewteen the spines, a few type III papillae were observed. Tongue or spade-shape spines were distributed anteriorly to the ventral sucker, whereas peg-like spines were distributed posteriorly and became sparse toward the posterior body. The spines of the dorsal surface were similar to those of the ventral surface. The 16-day old adults were leaf-like, and their oral and ventral suckers were located very closely. Aspinous head crown, oral and ventral suckers had type II and type III sensory papillae, and numerous type I papillae were distributed on the tegument anterior to the ventral sucker. Scale-like spines, with broad base and round tip, were distributed densely on the tegument anterior to the ventral sucker but they became sparse posteriorly. At the dorsal surface, spines were observed at times only at the anterior body. The results showed that the tegument of E. cinetorchis is similar to that of other echinostomes, but differs in the number and arrangement of collar spines, shape and distribution of tegumenal spines, and type and distribution of sensory papillae.

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Radiation Absorbed Dose Calculation Using Planar Images after Ho-166-CHICO Therapy (Ho-166-CHICO 치료 후 평면 영상을 이용한 방사선 흡수선량의 계산)

  • 조철우;박찬희;원재환;왕희정;김영미;박경배;이병기
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 1998
  • Ho-l66 was produced by neutron reaction in a reactor at the Korea Atomic Energy Institute (Taejon, Korea). Ho-l66 emits a high energy beta particles with a maximum energy of 1.85 MeV and small proportion of gamma rays (80 keV). Therefore, the radiation absorbed dose estimation could be based on the in-vivo quantification of the activity in tumors from the gamma camera images. Approximately 1 mCi of Ho-l66 in solution was mixed into the flood phantom and planar scintigraphic images were acquired with and without patient interposed between the phantom and scintillation camera. Transmission factor over an area of interest was calculated from the ratio of counts in selected regions of the two images described above. A dual-head gamma camera(Multispect2, Siemens, Hoffman Estates, IL, USA) equipped with medium energy collimators was utilized for imaging(80 keV${\pm}$10%). Fifty-nine year old female patient with hepatoma was enrolled into the therapeutic protocol after the informed consent obtained. Thirty millicuries(110MBq) of Ho-166-CHICO was injected into the right hepatic arterial branch supplying hepatoma. When the injection was completed, anterior and posterior scintigraphic views of the chest and pelvic regions were obtained for 3 successive days. Regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn over the organs in both the anterior and posterior views. The activity in those ROIs was estimated from geometric mean, calibration factor and transmission factors. Absorbed dose was calculated using the Marinelli formula and Medical Internal Radiation Dose (MIRD) schema. Tumor dose of the patient treated with 1110 MBq(30 mCi) Ho-l66 was calculated to be 179.7 Gy. Dose distribution to normal liver, spleen, lung and bone was 9.1, 10.3, 3.9, 5.0 % of the tumor dose respectively. In conclusion, tumor dose and absorbed dose to surrounding structures were calculated by daily external imaging after the Ho-l66 therapy for hepatoma. In order to limit the thresholding dose to each surrounding organ, absorbed dose calculation provides useful information.

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