• Title/Summary/Keyword: MCS technique

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Latin Hypercube Sampling Based Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis Considering Load Correlation

  • Zuo, Jian;Li, Yinhong;Cai, Defu;Shi, Dongyuan
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1832-1842
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    • 2014
  • A novel probabilistic small signal stability analysis (PSSSA) method considering load correlation is proposed in this paper. The superiority Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique combined with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is utilized to investigate the probabilistic small signal stability of power system in presence of load correlation. LHS helps to reduce the sampling size, meanwhile guarantees the accuracy and robustness of the solutions. The correlation coefficient matrix is adopted to represent the correlations between loads. Simulation results of the two-area, four-machine system prove that the proposed method is an efficient and robust sampling method. Simulation results of the 16-machine, 68-bus test system indicate that load correlation has a significant impact on the probabilistic analysis result of the critical oscillation mode under a certain degree of load uncertainty.

Reliability-Based Design Optimization Using Kriging Metamodel with Sequential Sampling Technique (순차적 샘플링과 크리깅 메타모델을 이용한 신뢰도 기반 최적설계)

  • Choi, Kyu-Seon;Lee, Gab-Seong;Choi, Dong-Hoon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.33 no.12
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    • pp.1464-1470
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    • 2009
  • RBDO approach based on a sampling method with the Kriging metamodel and Constraint Boundary Sampling (CBS), which is sequential sampling method to generate metamodels is proposed. The major advantage of the proposed RBDO approach is that it does not require Most Probable failure Point (MPP) which is essential for First-Order Reliability Method (FORM)-based RBDO approach. The Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS), most well-known method of the sampling methods for the reliability analysis is used to assess the reliability of constraints. In addition, a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the constraints is approximated using Moving Least Square (MLS) method from empirical distribution function. It is possible to acquire a probability of failure and its analytic sensitivities by using an approximate function of the CDF for the constraints. Moreover, a concept of inactive design is adapted to improve a numerical efficiency of the proposed approach. Computational accuracy and efficiency of the proposed RBDO approach are demonstrated by numerical and engineering problems.

Oven Temperature Control by Integral - Cycle Binary Rate Modulation Technique

  • Tipsuwanporn, V.;Piyarat, W.;Chochai, N.;Jamjan, K.;Paraken, Y.
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.278-280
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    • 1999
  • This paper proposes controlling of temperature in an oven by using 4 bits Integral - Cycle Binary Rate Modulation (IBRM) method and ac line with frequency 50 Hz. Microcontroller MCS-51 controls IBRM according to Proportional Integral controller (PI) function. Discrete signals are used in the system modeled by using Ziegler Nichols principle for analyzing the stability before designing the system. This procedure makes it easy to investigate system response. The system is implemented by 4 bits digital circuit which gives 320 patterns of ac signal fur controlling the generation of energy for 3,000 watts thermal coil every 20 ms of each cycle. We divide scan time (Ts$\sub$n/) in to 20 intervals, 1 ms interval is selected to generate 16 patterns IBRM. Because of this method gives the ripple lower than 2% it generates less noise fur system. Moreover, we can consider whole system from the time model of control procedure and IBRM algorithm at 40-200$^{\circ}C$ with ${\pm}$ 1$^{\circ}C$ error in the 1 cubic meter oven.

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A Markov-based prediction model of tunnel geology, construction time, and construction costs

  • Mahmoodzadeh, Arsalan;Mohammadi, Mokhtar;Ali, Hunar Farid Hama;Salim, Sirwan Ghafoor;Abdulhamid, Sazan Nariman;Ibrahim, Hawkar Hashim;Rashidi, Shima
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.421-435
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    • 2022
  • The necessity of estimating the time and cost required for tunnel construction has led to extensive research in this regard. Since geological conditions are significant factors in terms of time and cost of road tunnels, considering these conditions is crucial. Uncertainties about the geological conditions of a tunnel alignment cause difficulties in planning ahead of the required construction time and costs. In this paper, the continuous-space, discrete-state Markov process has been used to predict geological conditions. The Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation (MCS) method is employed to estimate the construction time and costs of a road tunnel project using the input data obtained from six tunneling expert questionnaires. In the first case, the input data obtained from each expert are individually considered and in the second case, they are simultaneously considered. Finally, a comparison of these two modes based on the technique presented in this article suggests considering views of several experts simultaneously to reduce uncertainties and ensure the results obtained for geological conditions and the construction time and costs.

Seismic reflection imaging of a Warm Core Ring south of Hokkaido (훗카이도 남부 Warm Core Ring의 탄성파 반사법 영상화)

  • Yamashita, Mikiya;Yokota, Kanako;Fukao, Yoshio;Kodaira, Shuichi;Miura, Seiichi;Katsumata, Katsuro
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.18-24
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    • 2011
  • A multi-channel seismic reflection (MCS) survey was conducted in 2009 to explore the deep crustal structure of the Pacific Plate south of Hokkaido. The survey line happened to traverse a 250-km-wide Warm Core Ring (WCR), a current eddy that had been generated by the Kuroshio Extension. We attempted to use these MCS data to delineate the WCR fine structure. The survey line consists of two profiles: one with a shot interval of 200m and the other with a shot interval of 50 m. Records from the denser shot point line show much higher background noise than the records from the sparser shot point line. We identified the origin of this noise as acoustic reverberations between the sea surface, seafloor and subsurface discontinuities, from previous shots. Results showed that a prestack migration technique could enhance the signal buried in this background noise efficiently, if the sound speed information acquired from concurrent temperature measurements is available. The WCR is acoustically an assemblage of concave reflectors dipping inward, with steeper slopes (${\sim}2^{\circ}$) on th ocean side and gentler slopes (${\sim}1^{\circ}$) on the coastal side. Within the WCR, we recognised a 30-km-wide lens-shaped structure with reflectors on the perimeter.

Reliability-Based Assessment of Structural Safety of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridge Erected by the FCM and FSM during Construction (FCM과 FSM공법에 의한 강-콘크리트 복합사장교의 신뢰성에 기초한 시공간 구조안전도평가)

  • Yoon, Jung Hyun;Cho, Hyo Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the models and methods for the safety assessment of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridge, which consists of steel composite girder and concrete girder erected by the FCM(Free Cantilever Method) and FSM(Full Staging Method) are proposed for the assurance of structural safety and the prevention against bridge collapse during construction. By the structural reliability approach that reasonably considers the uncertainties associated with the resistance and the load effect, the resistance and the load distribution characteristics of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridgeare defined and the strength limit state equations of permanent structures and temporary structures during construction are suggested. An AFOSM algorithm and MCS technique are used for the reliability analysis of cables, pylons, girders, steel-concrete conjunction part and temporary bents. Also, component reliability analyses are performed at the construction stages based on the structural system model. To demonstrate their rationality and practicality, the proposed models and approaches are applied to a real bridge. The sensitivity analyses of main parameters are performed in order to identify the critical factors that control the safety of similar bridges. As a result, it may be stated that the proposed models could be implemented as a rational and practical approach for the safety assessment of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-stayed bridges erected by FCM and FSM during construction.

Development of Statistical Models for Resistance of Reinforced Concrete Members (철근콘크리트 부재 저항능력의 통계적 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Jee Sang;Kim, Jong Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.4A
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    • pp.323-329
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    • 2011
  • Most current design codes of concrete structures adopt the partial safety factor format to assure the proper safety margin or reliability against various limit states as a practical design tool. The safety factors, load and resistance factors and so on, are determined based on the theory of structural reliability, which takes into account the statistical uncertainties of both loads and resistances. The establishment of statistical models for load and resistance should be preceded the application of reliability theory. In this paper, especially the influence of the statistical variations of resistance models, which are described in terms of strength of concrete, strength of reinforcements and sectional dimensions and so on, are examined and the probabilistic models for resistance of reinforced concrete members were developed. The statistical data were collected on local tests and experiments in Korea and the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique was used. The results of this paper may be useful and valuable in calibration of design code in this country.

Estimating Maintenance Cost by Actual Database Based on Operation in Sewage Treatment Plant (하수처리장 실적데이터베이스를 활용한 유지관리비용 예측)

  • Lee, Tai-Sik;Kwak, Dong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.2803-2809
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    • 2009
  • For a successful construction project not only construction engineering and project management technology but also economic evaluation technique is required. Design and construction technologies are necessary to receive a project order. However, construction management technology which can be apply from the project initial phase to the project operation and management phase is required to create a benefit from the project. Construction management technology is one of the effective factors for project success. Economical and efficient cost management from the planning phase influences the project success. This study investigated cost flow and cost factors of domestic Sewage Treatment Plant project for systematic analysis of cost items following the entire project phase. Particularly, data modeling based on domestic Sewage Treatment Equipment maintenance cost DB was performed, and maintenance cost estimation trend line is suggested using Monte carlo Simulation Method to decrease uncertainty of actual results DB and for feasibility study. Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society.

Automatic Document Classification Using Multiple Classifier Systems (다중 분류기 시스템을 이용한 자동 문서 분류)

  • Kim, In-Cheol
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.11B no.5
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    • pp.545-554
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    • 2004
  • Combining multiple classifiers to obtain improved performance over the individual classifier has been a widely used technique. The task of constructing a multiple classifier system(MCS) contains two different Issues how to generate a diverse set of base-level classifiers and how to combine their predictions. In this paper, we review the characteristics of existing multiple classifier systems : Bagging, Boosting, and Slaking. For document classification, we propose new MCSs such as Stacked Bagging, Stacked Boosting, Bagged Stacking, Boosted Stacking. These MCSs are a sort of hybrid MCSs that combine advantages of existing MCSs such as Bugging, Boosting, and Stacking. We conducted some experiments of document classification to evaluate the performances of the proposed schemes on MEDLINE, Usenet news, and Web document collections. The result of experiments demonstrate the superiority of our hybrid MCSs over the existing ones.

Simplified Method for Estimation of Mean Residual Life of Rubble-mound Breakwaters (경사제의 평균 잔류수명 추정을 위한 간편법)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2022
  • A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.