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A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

Drainage Analysis for the Anyang-cheon Upper-watershed Management Planning (유역관리계획수립(流域管理計劃樹立)에 관(關)한 기초적(基礎的) 연구(硏究))

  • Woo, Bo Myeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 1979
  • Such stream characteristics as the numbers, lengths, orders of stream channels, and drainage density are the essential elements for the analysis of drainages in planning of watershed management in a drainage basin. The drainage net is the pattern of tributaries and master streams in a drainage basin as declineated on a planimetric map. Stream order is a measure of the position of a stream in the hierarchy of tributaries. Density of the drainage is given by the quotient of the cumulative length of stream and the total drainage area. Drainage density then is simply a length per unit of area. In this study, the Anyang-cheon upper-watershed is selected for the survey and analysis of the stream system and drainage density in view point of the useful collection of data for effective watershed management planning. The Anyang-cheon upper-watershed is consisted of about 12,600 hectars of drainage area including the 13 Sub-stream. Total length of the Stream (as described in the Stream Law) in the survey area is measured as much as 71.2km, and that of the Small-stream as descrived in the Saemaul Stream Survey Book (1972) is calculated as 43,010 meters. Besides of this lengths, measured about 43,410 meters of the Small-stream and about 71,900 meters of the Torrential valley through this study. The range of the drainage density among the 13 Sub-streams having sub-watershed is analysed as from 14.79 to 24.10, and average value of drainage density in the entire watershed is calculated as 18.21 in case of including the length of the Torrential valley and 12.50 in case of excluding the same. It is required that the standard classification system in classifing for the characteristics of identification among the Stream, Sub-stream, Small-stream, Torrent, and Torrential valley must be satisfied through joint study of the authorities concerned.

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Detection of Sea-water Intrusion Caused by Tidal Action Using DC Resistivity Monitoring (전기비저항 모니터링을 이용한 해수침투 파악)

  • Hwang, Hak-Soo;Lee, Sang-Kyu;Ko, Dong-Chan;Kim, Yang-Soo;Park, In-Hwa
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2000
  • The 1 $km^2$ area studied is located in Sukchun-ri, Hwasung-koon, the southern part of Kyeonggi-do. Even though this site has been known as a contaminated area caused by seawater intrusions, geophysical and geochemical surveys have never been carried out at the site to determine the extent of the seawater contamination and to investigate whether the seawater intrusion is in progress. The purpose of this study is to determine the extent of seawater contamination and a preferred channel of the seawater intrusion using geophysical methods such as DC resistivity surveys with Schlumberger array and a dipole-dipole array. In order to determine whether the seawater intrusion is in progress in the area, DC resistivity monitoring with Schlumberger array was performed. According to the resistivity map obtained from the inversion of the resistivity data measured with Schlumberger array, the study area is divided into two districts as relatively lowly resistive (less than 30 ohm-m) and highly resistive (more than 30 ohm-m) areas. The distribution of the lowly resistive area is consistent with the distribution of the layer composed of clay minerals, and the resistivity of this layer decreases slowly as approaching to the old seashore. Hydrogeological analysis shows that the clay layer within a distance of about 200 m from the seashore has been already contaminated by sea-water and its electric conductivity is 8 times higher than that of the sand layer covered by the clay layer. According to the results of the 2-dimensional DC resistivity surveys with a dipole-dipole array, there are two preferred channels of the seawater intrusion in the site, and both the channels are in the NW-SE direction from the old seashore. The lowly resistive zone in the southern channel extends to a depth of 80 m. The DC resistivity monitoring with Schlumberger array was carried out along the preferred channel which has the low resistivity Bone (fracture zone) that extended to a depth of 80 m. The time series of apparent resistivity, measured at a distance of 260 m from the old coast line, fluctuates with a period of 12 hours. From these observations, it can be concluded that the seawater intrusion caused by tidal action is still in progress along the fractured zone interpreted by the DC resistivity surveys with a dipole-dipole array.

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A Reinvestigation on Key Issues Associated with the Yimjin(1712) Boundary Making and Demarcation: Location of 'Yipjiamlyu' and the Confluence of 'Tomungangweon' into the Sungari River (임진정계시 '입지암류(入地暗流)'의 위치와 '토문강원(土門江源)'의 송화강 유입 여부)

  • Lee, Kang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.571-605
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    • 2015
  • This research revealed that 'Yipjiamlyu' in the Mukedeng's map is geographically 'a beginning point of underf low,' whose location is on the Heishigou's riverbed(E.L. 1,840m) in the NNE side of Daegakbong peak, and that 'Tomungangweon'(Heishigou) is one of the upstream reach of the Sungari River, which, according to historical documents and my fieldwork, Mukedeng also knew at the time of Yimjin(1712) Boundary Making and Demarcation(YBMD). These findings suggest the need to reinterpret the processes of YBMD. Mukedeng set up the Baekdusanjeonggyeobi on the mistaken assumptions on the linkage of 'Yipjiamlyu' and Tumen River. It should have been set up on the Daeyeonjibong peak. Mukedeng found the 'Yipjiamlyu' on the riverbed of 'Tomungangweon'(Heishigou), went downstream, and realized that this river did not flow into the Tumen River. During the search for the source of Tumen River, he found a water stream, and regarded it as the source of Tumen River. He speculated that the water at the 'Yipjiamlyu' flows through the underground to reappear at the his 'identified' source of Tumen River. Consequently, he adjured the construction of demarcation from Baekdusanjeonggyeobi through 'Yipjiamlyu' to the his 'identified' source of Tumen River. The water stream pointed as the source of Tumen River, however, was not part of the upstream reach of Tumen River. Actually, Korean officials, who were in charge of establishing boundary features, set up the demarcation from Baekdusanjeonggyeobi through Huanghuasongdianzi to the true source of Tumen River identified by themselves, which Mukedeng had not intended. The ambiguity of the location of 'Yipjiamlyu' caused a difference between Mukedeng's original request and Korean officials' implementation in the boundary demarcation. Throughout the whole processes of YBMD, Korea(Joseon) and China(Qing) both mistook the real geography of the river system. Their understanding on Yalu River system was correct. But the identification of the spring source of the Tumen River by Korean participants was the only geographically correct result related on this river system in YBMD.

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Landscape of Erosional Basin in Korea -In case of land-use changes of hills- (우리 나라 침식분지의 경관 -구릉지의 토지이용 변화를 중심으로-)

  • Son, Myoung-Won
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.83-96
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    • 2000
  • Erosional basins formed in middle and upper reaches of Korean great rivers have been main life space of local small and middle cities, but previous studies on erosional basins are widely apart from residents' life and are in shortage with the endeavor to elucidate the man and environment relationship. This paper analyzes the factors and the modes of land-use changes of hills in the erosional basin. In this paper four erosional basins with different geological conditions are selected to elucidate the effect of geological factor(Geochang: granite, Chogye: metamorphic rock, Angye: gravelly sedimentary rock, Maseong: limestone). And the distribution of land use on the transverse and longitudinal cross-section map of the hill is described. The landscape of erosional basin is consisted of surrounding mountains, hills, dissected valleys, and incoming river's floodplain. Dissected valleys and incoming river's floodplain were reclaimed early as paddy field and hills have been used as woodland up to recently. Residents have a new appreciation of hills as a productive hill out of a traditional holy space[mountain] by influence of capitalistic thought that 'natural environment is a sort of productive resource'. Population increase is the another pressure of hill reclamation. The modes of landscape changes due to natural conditions are as follow: (1) In Geochang basin with dense tectolineament spacing, the gentle part of hill is used as field, orchard and agricultural-industrial complex site and the steep part is as woodland. (2) Hills in Angye basin with sparse tectolineament spacing are relatively flat because of maintaining a part of original denudational surface, and are used as orchids, field, paddy fields and agricultural-industrial complex site. The dissection valleys between hills are gentle concave and are used as paddy fields. (3) Hills in Maseong basin are wide and flat, and are used as fields, orchards, and agricultural-industrial complex site. (4) Because hills in Chogye basin, a closed type, are weared by affluents and are narrow and short. Hills are used as woodland and wide dissected valleys are reclaimed as paddy fields.

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Genesis and Classification of the Red-Yellow Soils derived from Residuum on Acidic and Intermediate Rocks -II. Songjeong series (산성암(酸性岩) 및 중성암(中性岩)의 잔적층(殘積層)에 발달(發達)한 적황색토(赤黃色土)의 생성(生成) 및 분류(分類) -제(第)II보(報) 송정통(松汀統)에 관(關)하여)

  • Um, Ki Tae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 1973
  • The morphological, physical, and chemical properties of Sonjeong series derived from acidic crystalline rocks are presented. Also it deals with the genesis and classification of the Songjeong series. Morphologically these soils have brown to dark brown loam A horizons and yellowish red to red clay loam Bt horizons with moderate, medium subangular blocky structure and thin patchy clay cutans on the ped faces. C horizons are very deep, yellowish red to yellowish brown fine sandy loam or sandy loam with original rock structure. Physically distribution of particle size indicates that clay increases with depth up to argillic horizons but below the argillic horizons clay content decrease. The moisture holding capacity is fairly good in Songjeong soils. Chemically soil reaction is strongly to very strongly acid throughout the profile and content of organic matter is less than 1 per cent except A horizons. Cation exchange capacity ranges from 5 to 9 me/100g of soils and base saturation is less than 35 per cent throughout the profile. The natural fertility of Songjeong soils are usually low. It needs lime, organic matter, and heavy application of fertilizer for the crop land. These soils occur temperate and humid climate under coniferous, deciduous, and mixed forest vegetation. Songjeong soils are classified as Red-Yellow Soils. Characteristically Songjeong soils are similar to Red-Yellow Podzolic soils in the United States but lack of A2 horizons and are quite liket Red-Yellow Soils of the Japan. According to new classification system which is 7th approximation of USDA Songjeong soils can be classified as fine loamy, mesic family of Typic Hapludults and in the FAO/UNESCO project World Soil Map as Orthic Acrisols.

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A Study on the Consideration of the Locations of Gyeongju Oksan Gugok and Landscape Interpretation - Focusing on the Arbor of Lee, Jung-Eom's "Oksan Gugok" - (경주 옥산구곡(玉山九曲)의 위치비정과 경관해석 연구 - 이정엄의 「옥산구곡가」를 중심으로 -)

  • Peng, Hong-Xu;Kang, Tai-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.26-36
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to examine the characteristics of landscape through the analysis of location and the landscape of Gugok while also conducting the empirical study through the literature review, field study, and digital analysis of the Okgung Gugok. Oksan Gugok is a set of songs set in Ogsan Creek(玉山川)or Jagyese Creek(紫溪川, 紫玉山), which flows in front of the Oksan Memorial Hall(李彦迪), which is dedicated to the Lee Eong-jeok (李彦迪). We first ascertained the location and configuration of Oksan Gogok. Second, we confirmed the accurate location of Oksan Gogok by utilizing the digital topographic map of Oksan Gogok which was submitted by Google Earth Pro and Geographic Information Center as well as the length of the longitude of the gravel measured by the Trimble Juno SB GPS. Through the study of the literature and the field investigation, The results of the study are as follows. First, Yi Eonjeok was not a direct composer of Oksan Gugok, nor did he produce "Oksan Gugokha(Music)". Lee Ia-sung(李野淳), the ninth Youngest Son of Tweo-Kye, Hwang Lee, visited the "Oksan Gugokha" in the spring of 1823(Sunjo 23), which was the 270th years after the reign of Yi Eonjeok. At this time, receiving the proposal of Ian Sung, Lee Jung-eom(李鼎儼), Lee Jung-gi(李鼎基), and Lee Jung-byeong(李鼎秉), the descendants of Ian Sung set up a song and created Oksan Gugok Music. And the Essay of Oksan Travel Companions writted by Lee Jung-gi turns out being a crucial data to describe the situation when setting up the Ok-San Gugok. Second, In the majority of cases, Gogok Forest is a forest managed by a Confucian Scholar, not run by ordinary people. The creation of "Oksan Bugok Music" can be regarded as an expression of pride that the descendants of Yi Eonjeok and Lee Hwang, and next generation of several Confucian scholars had inherited traditional Neo-Confucian. Third, Lee Jung-eom's "Oksan Donghaengki" contains a detailed description of the "Oksan Gugokha" process and the process of creating a song. Fourth, We examined the location of one to nine Oksan songs again. In particular, eight songs and nine songs were located at irregular intervals, and eight songs were identified as $36^{\circ}01^{\prime}08.60^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$, $129^{\circ}09^{\prime}31.20^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$. Referring to the ancient kingdom of Taojam, the nine-stringed Sainam was unbiased as a lower rock where the two valleys of the East West congregate. The location was estimated at $36^{\circ}01^{\prime}19.79^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$, $129^{\circ}09^{\prime}30.26^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$. Fifth, The landscape elements and landscapes presented in Lee Jung-eom's "Oksan Gugokha" were divided into form, semantic and climatic elements. As a result, Lee Jung-eom's Cho Young-gwan was able to see the ideal of mountain water and the feeling of being idle in nature as well as the sense of freedom. Sixth, After examining the appearance of the elements and the frequency of the appearance of the landscape, 'water' and 'mountain' were the absolute factors that emphasized the original curved environment at the mouth of Lee Jung-eom. Therefore, there was gugokga can gauge the fresh ideas(神仙思想)and retreat ever(隱居思想). This inherent harmony between the landscape as well as through the mulah any ideas that one with nature and meditation, Confucian tube.

Retail Product Development and Brand Management Collaboration between Industry and University Student Teams (산업여대학학생단대지간적령수산품개발화품패관리협작(产业与大学学生团队之间的零售产品开发和品牌管理协作))

  • Carroll, Katherine Emma
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.239-248
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    • 2010
  • This paper describes a collaborative project between academia and industry which focused on improving the marketing and product development strategies for two private label apparel brands of a large regional department store chain in the southeastern United States. The goal of the project was to revitalize product lines of the two brands by incorporating student ideas for new solutions, thereby giving the students practical experience with a real-life industry situation. There were a number of key players involved in the project. A privately-owned department store chain based in the southeastern United States which was seeking an academic partner had recognized a need to update two existing private label brands. They targeted middle-aged consumers looking for casual, moderately priced merchandise. The company was seeking to change direction with both packaging and presentation, and possibly product design. The branding and product development divisions of the company contacted professors in an academic department of a large southeastern state university. Two of the professors agreed that the task would be a good fit for their classes - one was a junior-level Intermediate Brand Management class; the other was a senior-level Fashion Product Development class. The professors felt that by working collaboratively on the project, students would be exposed to a real world scenario, within the security of an academic learning environment. Collaboration within an interdisciplinary team has the advantage of providing experiences and resources beyond the capabilities of a single student and adds "brainpower" to problem-solving processes (Lowman 2000). This goal of improving the capabilities of students directed the instructors in each class to form interdisciplinary teams between the Branding and Product Development classes. In addition, many universities are employing industry partnerships in research and teaching, where collaboration within temporal (semester) and physical (classroom/lab) constraints help to increase students' knowledge and experience of a real-world situation. At the University of Tennessee, the Center of Industrial Services and UT-Knoxville's College of Engineering worked with a company to develop design improvements in its U.S. operations. In this study, Because should be lower case b with a private label retail brand, Wickett, Gaskill and Damhorst's (1999) revised Retail Apparel Product Development Model was used by the product development and brand management teams. This framework was chosen because it addresses apparel product development from the concept to the retail stage. Two classes were involved in this project: a junior level Brand Management class and a senior level Fashion Product Development class. Seven teams were formed which included four students from Brand Management and two students from Product Development. The classes were taught the same semester, but not at the same time. At the beginning of the semester, each class was introduced to the industry partner and given the problem. Half the teams were assigned to the men's brand and half to the women's brand. The teams were responsible for devising approaches to the problem, formulating a timeline for their work, staying in touch with industry representatives and making sure that each member of the team contributed in a positive way. The objective for the teams was to plan, develop, and present a product line using merchandising processes (following the Wickett, Gaskill and Damhorst model) and develop new branding strategies for the proposed lines. The teams performed trend, color, fabrication and target market research; developed sketches for a line; edited the sketches and presented their line plans; wrote specifications; fitted prototypes on fit models, and developed final production samples for presentation to industry. The branding students developed a SWOT analysis, a Brand Measurement report, a mind-map for the brands and a fully integrated Marketing Report which was presented alongside the ideas for the new lines. In future if the opportunity arises to work in this collaborative way with an existing company who wishes to look both at branding and product development strategies, classes will be scheduled at the same time so that students have more time to meet and discuss timelines and assigned tasks. As it was, student groups had to meet outside of each class time and this proved to be a challenging though not uncommon part of teamwork (Pfaff and Huddleston, 2003). Although the logistics of this exercise were time-consuming to set up and administer, professors felt that the benefits to students were multiple. The most important benefit, according to student feedback from both classes, was the opportunity to work with industry professionals, follow their process, and see the results of their work evaluated by the people who made the decisions at the company level. Faculty members were grateful to have a "real-world" case to work with in the classroom to provide focus. Creative ideas and strategies were traded as plans were made, extending and strengthening the departmental links be tween the branding and product development areas. By working not only with students coming from a different knowledge base, but also having to keep in contact with the industry partner and follow the framework and timeline of industry practice, student teams were challenged to produce excellent and innovative work under new circumstances. Working on the product development and branding for "real-life" brands that are struggling gave students an opportunity to see how closely their coursework ties in with the real-world and how creativity, collaboration and flexibility are necessary components of both the design and business aspects of company operations. Industry personnel were impressed by (a) the level and depth of knowledge and execution in the student projects, and (b) the creativity of new ideas for the brands.