• Title/Summary/Keyword: Loss Probability

Search Result 636, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

A Case Study on the Risk Management for the Long-term Preservation Business Activities Related to Electronic Records (전자기록 장기보존 위험관리 사례)

  • Yim, Jin-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
    • /
    • no.39
    • /
    • pp.3-43
    • /
    • 2014
  • This paper showed results of the risk management project in detail which was conducted by National Archives of Korea(NAK) in 2010. In the project NAK examined its long-term preservation business of electronic records using DRAMBORA(Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment). NAK has defined 44 different risk elements related to its business activities, assessed and classified them into several grades according to the severity calculated by risk probability score and risk potential impact score, and developed precise management plans for two of the most serious risks. This paper introduced the management plan for one of them. The risk was numbered with NR04 and described by 'Loss of integrity of records information'. This paper explained mitigation strategies, contingency organization, disaster control responsibilities, and personal mission cards for the NR04. This paper planned to give comprehensive understandings to Records Management Organizations about the risk management approaches as an effective way for business management through the case study.

Risk factors limiting first service conception rate in dairy cows and their economic impact

  • Kim, Ill Hwa;Jeong, Jae Kwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • v.32 no.4
    • /
    • pp.519-526
    • /
    • 2019
  • Objective: We determined the risk factors limiting first service conception (FSC) rate in dairy cows and their economic impact. Methods: Data were collected from 790 lactations regarding cow parity, peri- and postpartum disorders, body condition score (BCS), reproductive performance, and expenses associated with reproductive management (treatment, culling, and others). Initially, we identified the risk factors limiting FSC rate in dairy cows. Various biological and environmental factors, such as herd, cow parity, BCS at 1 month postpartum and first artificial insemination (AI), resumption of cyclicity within 1 month of calving, year, AI season, insemination at detected estrus or timed AI, peri- and postpartum disorders, and calving to first AI interval, were evaluated. Next, we evaluated the economic impact of the success or failure of FSC by comparing the expense associated with reproductive management until conception between cows that did or did not conceive at their first service. Results: Cows with BCS <3.0 had a lower probability of conceiving at first insemination (odds ratio [OR] = 0.64, p<0.05) than cows with $BCS{\geq}3.0$. Cows inseminated during summer were less likely to conceive (OR = 0.44, p<0.001) than cows inseminated during spring. Cows with peri- or postpartum disorders were less likely to conceive (OR = 0.55, p<0.001) than cows without disorders. Survival curves generated using MedCalc showed an 81 day extension in the mean interval between calving and conception in cows that failed to conceive over those that did conceive at first insemination. Cows failing conceive required additional expenditure on reproductive treatment ($55.40) and other management ($567.00) than cows that conceived at first insemination. Conclusion: Lower BCS, hot weather at first insemination, and peri- and postpartum disorders are risk factors limiting FSC, which result in an economic loss of $622.40 per dairy cow.

Development of an Objective Judgement Procedure for Determining Involvement of Violation-Type Unsafe Acts caused Industrial Accidents (사고 유발 불안전행동의 위반 여부에 대한 객관적 판단절차 개발)

  • Lim, Hyeon Kyo;Ham, Seung Eon;Bak, Geon Yeong;Lee, Yong Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.37 no.2
    • /
    • pp.35-42
    • /
    • 2022
  • When an accident occurs, the associated human activity is typically regarded as a "human error," or a temporal deviation. On the other hand, if the accident results in a serious loss or if it evokes a social issue, the person determined to be responsible may be punished with a "violation" of related laws or regulations. However, as Heinrich stated, it is neither appropriate nor reasonable in terms of probability theory and cognitive science to distinguish whether it is a "human error" or a "violation" with a criterion of resultant accident severity. Nonetheless, some in society get on the social climate to strengthen regulations on workers who have caused accidents, especially violations. This response can present a social issue due to the lack of systematic judgment procedure which distinguishes violations from human errors. The purpose of this study was to develop an objective and systematic procedure to assess whether workers' activities which induced industrial accidents should be categorized as violations rather than human errors. Various analysis techniques for the determination of violation procedure were investigated and compared using an analysis approach method. An appropriate technique was not found, however, for judging the culpability of intentional violations. As an alternative, this study developed the process of creating violations, based on cognitive procedure, as well as the criteria to determine and categorize an activity as a violation. In addition, the developed procedure was applied to cases of industrial accidents and nuclear power plant issues to test its practical applicability. The study demonstrated that the proposed model could be used to determine the existence of a violation even in the case of multiple workers who work simultaneously.

A Study on the Characteristics of Lightning Detection over the Naro Space Center (나로우주센터 상공의 낙뢰 발생 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Hong-Il;Choi, Eun-Ho;Suh, Sung-Ho;Seo, Seong-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.31 no.7
    • /
    • pp.543-553
    • /
    • 2022
  • The latest aerospace technology is important for the stable flight of a launch vehicle, but weather conditions on the day of launch are also one of the essential factors for successful launch campaign. If a launch vehicle is directly struck while preparing to take off from the launch pad on the day of launch or the electronic device are damaged by induced current during flight of the launch vehicle, this means launch failure and can lead to enormous national loss. Therefore, for a successful launch campaign, it is necessary to analyze the lightning detection characteristics of the Naro Space Center. In this study, the seasonal factors of the lightning that occurred over the Naro Space Center from 2003 to 2017, the influence of the polarity, and the correlation with the lightning intensity was confirmed. As a result, there was a high probability of intensive occurrence of multiple lightning strikes in summer, and a high proportion of positive (+) lightning strikes in winter. Lastly, in the distribution of the number of lightning strikes, an average of 2.0 to 2.5 negative (-) lightning strikes occurs in the coastal regions of the South and West Seas when one flash happens.

Development of a Backpack-Based Wearable Proximity Detection System

  • Shin, Hyungsub;Chang, Seokhee;Yu, Namgyenong;Jeong, Chaeeun;Xi, Wen;Bae, Jihyun
    • Fashion & Textile Research Journal
    • /
    • v.24 no.5
    • /
    • pp.647-654
    • /
    • 2022
  • Wearable devices come in a variety of shapes and sizes in numerous fields in numerous fields and are available in various forms. They can be integrated into clothing, gloves, hats, glasses, and bags and used in healthcare, the medical field, and machine interfaces. These devices keep track individuals' biological and behavioral data to help with health communication and are often used for injury prevention. Those with hearing loss or impaired vision find it more difficult to recognize an approaching person or object; these sensing devices are particularly useful for such individuals, as they assist them with injury prevention by alerting them to the presence of people or objects in their immediate vicinity. Despite these obvious preventive benefits to developing Internet of Things based devices for the disabled, the development of these devices has been sluggish thus far. In particular, when compared with people without disabilities, people with hearing impairment have a much higher probability of averting danger when they are able to notice it in advance. However, research and development remain severely underfunded. In this study, we incorporated a wearable detection system, which uses an infrared proximity sensor, into a backpack. This system helps its users recognize when someone is approaching from behind through visual and tactile notification, even if they have difficulty hearing or seeing the objects in their surroundings. Furthermore, this backpack could help prevent accidents for all users, particularly those with visual or hearing impairments.

A SE Approach for Real-Time NPP Response Prediction under CEA Withdrawal Accident Conditions

  • Felix Isuwa, Wapachi;Aya, Diab
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-93
    • /
    • 2022
  • Machine learning (ML) data-driven meta-model is proposed as a surrogate model to reduce the excessive computational cost of the physics-based model and facilitate the real-time prediction of a nuclear power plant's transient response. To forecast the transient response three machine learning (ML) meta-models based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs); specifically, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and a sequence combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and LSTM are developed. The chosen accident scenario is a control element assembly withdrawal at power concurrent with the Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP). The transient response was obtained using the best estimate thermal hydraulics code, MARS-KS, and cross-validated against the Design and control document (DCD). DAKOTA software is loosely coupled with MARS-KS code via a python interface to perform the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty Quantification (BEPU) analysis and generate a time series database of the system response to train, test and validate the ML meta-models. Key uncertain parameters identified as required by the CASU methodology were propagated using the non-parametric Monte-Carlo (MC) random propagation and Latin Hypercube Sampling technique until a statistically significant database (181 samples) as required by Wilk's fifth order is achieved with 95% probability and 95% confidence level. The three ML RNN models were built and optimized with the help of the Talos tool and demonstrated excellent performance in forecasting the most probable NPP transient response. This research was guided by the Systems Engineering (SE) approach for the systematic and efficient planning and execution of the research.

A Review of the Types and Characteristics of Healthy Life Expectancy and Methodological Issues

  • Kim, Young-Eun;Jung, Yoon-Sun;Ock, Minsu;Yoon, Seok-Jun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.55 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2022
  • An index that evaluates the health level of a population group considering both death and loss of function due to disease is called a summary measure of population health (SMPH). SMPHs are broadly divided into life year indices and life expectancy indices, the latter of which comprise healthy life expectancy (HLE). HLE is included as a policy target in various national and regional level healthcare plans, and the term "HLE" is commonly used in academia and by the public. However, the overall level of understanding of HLE-such as the precise definition of HLE and methods of calculating HLE-still seems to be low. As discussed in this study, the types of HLE are classified into disability-free life expectancy, disease-free life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, self-rated HLE, and disability-adjusted life expectancy. Their characteristics are examined to facilitate a correct understanding and appropriate utilization of HLE. In addition, the Sullivan method, as a representative method for calculating HLE, is presented in detail, and major issues in the process of calculating HLE, such as selection of the population group and age group, estimation of death probability, calculation of life years, and incorporation of health weights, are reviewed. This study will help researchers to select an appropriate HLE type and evaluate the validity of HLE research results, and it is expected to contribute to the vitalization of HLE research.

Spatio-Temporal Projection of Invasion Using Machine Learning Algorithm-MaxEnt

  • Singye Lhamo;Ugyen Thinley;Ugyen Dorji
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
    • /
    • v.39 no.2
    • /
    • pp.105-117
    • /
    • 2023
  • Climate change and invasive alien plant species (IAPs) are having a significant impact on mountain ecosystems. The combination of climate change and socio-economic development is exacerbating the invasion of IAPs, which are a major threat to biodiversity loss and ecosystem functioning. Species distribution modelling has become an important tool in predicting the invasion or suitability probability under climate change based on occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt modelling was applied to predict the current suitable distribution of most noxious weed A. adenophora (Spreng) R. King and H. Robinson and analysed the changes in distribution with the use of current (year 2000) environmental variables and future (year 2050) climatic scenarios consisting of 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Bhutan. Species occurrence data was collected from the region of interest along the road side using GPS handset. The model performance of both current and future climatic scenario was moderate in performance with mean temperature of wettest quarter being the most important variable that contributed in model fit. The study shows that current climatic condition favours the A. adenophora for its invasion and RCP 2.6 climatic scenario would promote aggression of invasion as compared to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. This can lead to characterization of the species as preferring moderate change in climatic conditions to be invasive, while extreme conditions can inhibit its invasiveness. This study can serve as reference point for the conservation and management strategies in control of this species and further research.

Comparative analysis of performance of BI-LSTM and GRU algorithm for predicting the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases (코로나 확진자 수 예측을 위한 BI-LSTM과 GRU 알고리즘의 성능 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Jae-Ho;Kim, Jang-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.26 no.2
    • /
    • pp.187-192
    • /
    • 2022
  • Even the announcing date for the staring date of "With Corona" has been decided, still many people have not completed vaccination, the most important condition for starting the With Corona, because of concerns for its side effects. In addition, although the economy may can be recovered by the With Corona, but the number of infected people may can be surged. In this paper, in order to awaken the people for the awareness of Corona 19 in advance of the With Corona, the Corona 19 is predicted through a non-linear probability process. Here, among the deep learning RNN, BI-LSTM, which is a bidirectional LSTM, and GRU, gates decreased than LSTM have been used. And this has been compared and analyzed through train set, test set, loss function, residual analysis, normal distribution, and autocorrelation, and compared and predicted for which has a better performance.

A Disk-based Archival Storage System Using the EOS Erasure Coding Implementation for the ALICE Experiment at the CERN LHC

  • Ahn, Sang Un;Betev, Latchezar;Bonfillou, Eric;Han, Heejune;Kim, Jeongheon;Lee, Seung Hee;Panzer-Steindel, Bernd;Peters, Andreas-Joachim;Yoon, Heejun
    • Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
    • /
    • v.10 no.spc
    • /
    • pp.56-65
    • /
    • 2022
  • Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI) is a Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WLCG) Tier-1 center mandated to preserve raw data produced from A Large Ion Collider Experiment (ALICE) experiment using the world's largest particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN). Physical medium used widely for long-term data preservation is tape, thanks to its reliability and least price per capacity compared to other media such as optical disk, hard disk, and solid-state disk. However, decreasing numbers of manufacturers for both tape drives and cartridges, and patent disputes among them escalated risk of market. As alternative to tape-based data preservation strategy, we proposed disk-only erasure-coded archival storage system, Custodial Disk Storage (CDS), powered by Exascale Open Storage (EOS), an open-source storage management software developed by CERN. CDS system consists of 18 high density Just-Bunch-Of-Disks (JBOD) enclosures attached to 9 servers through 12 Gbps Serial Attached SCSI (SAS) Host Bus Adapter (HBA) interfaces via multiple paths for redundancy and multiplexing. For data protection, we introduced Reed-Solomon (RS) (16, 4) Erasure Coding (EC) layout, where the number of data and parity blocks are 12 and 4 respectively, which gives the annual data loss probability equivalent to 5×10-14. In this paper, we discuss CDS system design based on JBOD products, performance limitations, and data protection strategy accommodating EOS EC implementation. We present CDS operations for ALICE experiment and long-term power consumption measurement.